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March 10, 2013

RELEASE : 13-069

Amplified Greenhouse Effect Shifts North’s Growing Seasons

WASHINGTON — Vegetation growth at Earth’s northern latitudes increasingly resembles lusher latitudes to the south, according to a NASA-funded study based on a 30-year record of land surface and newly improved satellite data sets.

An international team of university and NASA scientists examined the relationship between changes in surface temperature and vegetation growth from 45 degrees north latitude to the Arctic Ocean. Results show temperature and vegetation growth at northern latitudes now resemble those found 4 degrees to 6 degrees of latitude farther south as recently as 1982.

“Higher northern latitudes are getting warmer, Arctic sea ice and the duration of snow cover are diminishing, the growing season is getting longer and plants are growing more,” said Ranga Myneni of Boston University’s Department of Earth and Environment. “In the north’s Arctic and boreal areas, the characteristics of the seasons are changing, leading to great disruptions for plants and related ecosystems.”

The study was published Sunday in the journal Nature Climate Change.

Myneni and colleagues used satellite data to quantify vegetation changes at different latitudes from 1982 to 2011. Data used in this study came from NOAA’s Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometers (AVHRR) onboard a series of polar-orbiting satellites and NASA’s Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments on the Terra and Aqua satellites.

As a result of enhanced warming and a longer growing season, large patches of vigorously productive vegetation now span a third of the northern landscape, or more than 3.5 million square miles (9 million square kilometers). That is an area about equal to the contiguous United States. This landscape resembles what was found 250 to 430 miles (400 to 700 kilometers) to the south in 1982.

“It’s like Winnipeg, Manitoba, moving to Minneapolis-Saint Paul in only 30 years,” said co-author Compton Tucker of NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md.

The Arctic’s greenness is visible on the ground as an increasing abundance of tall shrubs and trees in locations all over the circumpolar Arctic. Greening in the adjacent boreal areas is more pronounced in Eurasia than in North America.

An amplified greenhouse effect is driving the changes, according to Myneni. Increased concentrations of heat-trapping gasses, such as water vapor, carbon dioxide and methane, cause Earth’s surface, ocean and lower atmosphere to warm. Warming reduces the extent of polar sea ice and snow cover, and, in turn, the darker ocean and land surfaces absorb more solar energy, thus further heating the air above them.

“This sets in motion a cycle of positive reinforcement between warming and loss of sea ice and snow cover, which we call the amplified greenhouse effect,” Myneni said. “The greenhouse effect could be further amplified in the future as soils in the north thaw, releasing potentially significant amounts of carbon dioxide and methane.”

To find out what is in store for future decades, the team analyzed 17 climate models. These models show that increased temperatures in Arctic and boreal regions would be the equivalent of a 20-degree latitude shift by the end of this century relative to a period of comparison from 1951-1980.

However, researchers say plant growth in the north may not continue on its current trajectory. The ramifications of an amplified greenhouse effect, such as frequent forest fires, outbreak of pest infestations and summertime droughts, may slow plant growth.

Also, warmer temperatures alone in the boreal zone do not guarantee more plant growth, which also depends on the availability of water and sunlight.

“Satellite data identify areas in the boreal zone that are warmer and dryer and ¬¬other areas that are warmer and wetter,” said co-author Ramakrishna Nemani of NASA’s Ames Research Center in Moffett Field, Calif. “Only the warmer and wetter areas support more growth.”
Researchers did find found more plant growth in the boreal zone from 1982 to 1992 than from 1992 to 2011, because water limitations were encountered in the latter two decades.

Data, results and computer codes from this study will be made available on NASA Earth Exchange (NEX), a collaborative supercomputing facility at Ames. NEX is designed to bring scientists together with data, models and computing resources to accelerate research and innovation and provide transparency.

For more information and images associated with this release, visit:

http://go.nasa.gov/12Amv2s

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Activists mar Australian Pope idea
Updated: 10:14, Monday March 11, 2013
Activists mar Australian Pope idea

Cardinal George Pell reportedly has no chance of becoming Pope after his Australian opponents filled in the media and cardinals about the Sydney archbishop’s history of dealing with sex abuse allegations.

Australian commentator, Paul Collins, says progressive Catholics have lobbied overseas journalists and voting cardinals to make sure they are aware of a 2002 inquiry into allegations against the Sydney archbishop.

The inquiry, headed by independent commissioner, Alex Southwell, QC, cleared Dr Pell of allegations he molested a boy, in 1961, during a camp at Phillip Island, in Victoria.

But Dr Collins, a former priest, has told Fairfax: ‘He has no chance.’

Dr Collins said another problem for the Cardinal is that his patrons, the former Pope and other influential cardinals, have lost power.

‘In Italy, without patrons, you’re gone.’

Cardinal Pell was last week named at Number Five on a so-called dirty dozen list, compiled by the US-based Survivors Network of those Abused by Priests, or SNAP.

The group cited a dozen cardinals from the United States, Mexico, Honduras, Italy, Australia, Czech Republic, Canada, Argentina and Ghana accused of protecting pedophile priests or making offensive public statements.
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‘Gillard factor’ blamed for Labor’s election loss

ABCUpdated March 11, 2013, 8:50 am

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A senior Western Australia Labor figure is calling on Julia Gillard to resign as prime minister, warning Labor faces an “absolute massacre” in the federal election if she stays on.

Alannah MacTiernan, who has been involved in West Australian politics for decades, made her comments after Labor suffered a resounding loss at the weekend’s state election.

The ABC’s election computer predicts Labor, led by Mark McGowan, will hold just 19 seats in the 59-seat WA legislative assembly.

Some ALP figures have said the unpopularity of the Federal Government contributed to the loss, with Defence Minister Stephen Smith admitting that federal Labor was a “drag” on its state counterpart.

“Our federal difficult period, which coincided with the campaign, was clearly a drag on Mark. It wouldn’t have affected the substantive outcome,” he said.

“We’ve got a range of tough political issues to work through between now and September. I’ve always been of the view when we have that election in September, it will go down to the wire.”

Ms MacTiernan has warned that the party can expect worse results at the federal election unless Ms Gillard stands aside.

“It doesn’t cause me any pleasure to say that,” she said.

“I really feel deeply for her because I know she’s trying exceptionally hard.

“But at the end of the day the Labor voters have said we don’t accept her as our leader, and if we do not take note of this there is going to be an absolute massacre in the federal election.”

Ms MacTiernan says voters in Labor’s WA heartland told her that while they voted for the ALP yesterday, they will not support the party federally.

“They’re saying they don’t like Julia Gillard, they don’t believe her,” she said.

“The only way that we can dig ourselves out, [or] have got any hope of digging ourselves out of this Greek tragedy, is for the Prime Minister to stand down.”

Ms MacTiernan’s comments and the WA election result will ensure a fresh round of leadership questions when federal Parliament returns this week for another sitting fortnight, the last before the May budget.

Special Minister of State Gary Gray, who represents a WA seat n Canberra, says: “I think it’s unreasonable to suggest that there are no federal implications of the West Australian poll.

“Premier [Colin] Barnett, the Liberal Party and the National Party were able to work together in harmony by not sniping internally, by not back-biting, by remaining focused on good governance and good government and focusing on that, rather than on themselves.”

One Labor MP has told AM the question of leadership change is now becoming more urgent.

Mr Gray is urging his federal colleagues to view a Newspoll due out this week with calm and perspective.

“Let’s not get too diverted by the week-to-week, day-to-day opinion polling that will happen on a regular basis between now and September 14,” he said.

Ms Gillard released a statement on Sunday afternoon congratulating Mr Barnett on his re-election, and WA Labor for their hard-fought campaign

“The Gillard Government looks forward to continuing to work with the Barnett Government on a range of important initiatives which will benefit the people of Western Australia and recognise the importance that WA plays to the national economy,” she said.
Counting will resume today, with the seats of Kimberley, Collie-Preston, Eyre, Warren-Blackwood, Belmont and Midland yet to be decided.

Premiers clash over Obeid rise

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Clash: Morris Iemma, left, and Bob Carr. Photo: James Alcock, Dominic Lorrimer

Former Labor premiers Bob Carr and Morris Iemma have gone to war over who was responsible for the rise of Eddie Obeid amid warnings that corruption hearings involving the notorious powerbroker will have dire consequences for the party at the federal election.

Senator Carr, now the Foreign Affairs Minister, has accused Mr Iemma, his successor as premier, of a serious error by allowing Mr Obeid ”special status” in his government.

”I’m sure that Morris Iemma, a very decent – decent and honest figure – would reflect that it was a cardinal mistake to allow Obeid that special status and privilege,” Senator Carr says in comments that will go to air on Monday night on the ABC program Four Corners.

Accused of corruption: Eddie Obeid. Photo: Jon Reid

”And people who then ran the state ALP machine were making a terrible mistake to confer some special status on him. For what reason? What could he deliver? What qualities could he bring?”

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Mr Iemma rejected Mr Carr’s assessment, insisting he had no special access. ”He had a status all right: cabinet minister, conferred on him by Bob Carr,” Mr Iemma said of Mr Obeid.

”I don’t know what special status he’s referring to. He was a cabinet minister in Bob’s government. He was a backbencher in my government.”

Mr Obeid’s influence over the former Labor government has been outlined recently at hearings of the Independent Commission Against Corruption.

The commission has been examining allegations that Mr Obeid’s family conspired to make millions of dollars by rigging a 2008 tender process for coal exploration licences issued by his former colleague and then mining minister Ian Macdonald.

Mr Iemma has given evidence that Mr Obeid was a leader of a powerful subgroup of the dominant Right faction of the NSW party, called the Terrigals, a position that allowed him significant influence over government decision making.

When asked about Mr Obeid, Senator Carr has been at pains to say that he sacked him from cabinet in 2003, comments he repeats in his interview with Four Corners.

But Mr Iemma said that, if anything, Mr Obeid’s influence grew under Mr Carr after he

removed him as minister for fisheries and mineral resources. ”I have a distinct recollection of Bob standing up in caucus and saying he wanted Obeid to focus on being a ‘good caucus manager’,” he said.

Mr Iemma said Mr Obeid’s position in the party did not change after Mr Carr’s retirement as premier in 2005. ”Eddie ran the largest group in the Right under Bob, me, Nathan Rees and Kristina Keneally,” he said.

After initially declining to elaborate on his interview with Four Corners, Senator Carr issued a written statement on Sunday night: ”I’m proud to have expelled Eddie Obeid from my cabinet,” he said. “Everyone knows he had no access or influence with me or my office while I was premier.”

At a news conference earlier, Senator Carr refused to answer questions about Labor’s defeat in the West Australian election on Saturday, or say whether the ICAC inquiry would hurt Labor’s chances at the federal election. But party elder John Faulkner told Four Corners Labor’s standing in NSW had been ”very significantly damaged by the revelations at ICAC and it would be very surprising if that didn’t have an impact federally”

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/premiers-clash-over-obeid-rise-20130310-2fu7f.html#ixzz2NBAzs83X

Australia links ‘angry summer’ to climate change – at last

Government advisers unequivocally link the country’s extreme weather and global warming, and say the worst is yet to come
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Map of extreme weather events that hit Australia during summer 2012/2013. Click on the image for a larger view. Photograph: Australia Climate Commission

The hottest summer on record. The hottest January on record. The hottest day on record for Australia as a whole. Bushfires in every state and territory. Daily rainfall records and major flooding. Over a period of 90 days, these were some of the 123 extreme weather records broken during Australia’s “angry summer”.

Despite the dramatic headlines and “flame-seared images” that documented extreme weather over the summer, the Australian media largely failed to make the link to climate change. Of 800 articles published on the heatwave over a period of five days in January, fewer than 10 also discussed global warming. In the US and the UK, by comparison, the relationship between global warming and extreme weather events such as hurricane Sandy and the UK’s second wettest year on record became a major talking – and election – point.

But a report by Australian government advisers this week unequivocally and directly links the summer’s extreme weather to climate change, and should make the link harder to ignore in future. Climate scientists have been historically reluctant to link the two – particularly in a country like Australia which has naturally occurring cycles of drought and floods and is naturally a land of weather extremes.

But the report “Angry Summer”, released by the Australian government’s independent Climate Commission, argues that this summer’s conditions were different due to their record-breaking intensity and duration, and “were all influenced to some extent by a climate that is fundamentally shifting”.

Author Prof Will Steffen wrote:

“Australia’s angry summer shows that climate change is already adversely affecting Australians. The significant impacts of extreme weather on people, property, communities and the environment highlight the serious consequences of failing to adequately address climate change.”

Fellow commissioner Tim Flannery said:

“I think one of the best ways of thinking about it is imagining that the baseline has shifted. If an athlete takes steroids, for example, their baseline shifts, they’ll do fewer slow times and many more record-breaking fast times. The same thing is happening with our climate system. As it warms up, we’re getting fewer cold days and cold events and many more record hot events.”

Angry summer shows that 2012-13 was Australia’s hottest summer since records began in 1910. Temperature records were set in every state and territory, and the national daily average temperature rose to unprecedented levels. Meteorologists were even forced to add two new colour categories to Australia’s weather prediction maps as the heat rose.

In early January, major bushfires burned in the states of Tasmania, New South Wales (NSW) and Victoria. “Climate change is aggravating bushfire conditions and thus increasing the risk of fire,” said the report. It also cited the introduction of a new category – “catastrophic” – for ranking bushfire risk following Australia’s devastating 2009 Black Saturday fires, as “concrete evidence of this increasing risk”.

Some 26 daily rainfall records were broken at weather stations across Australia over the 2012-13 summer. Five river-height records were broken and there was major flooding throughout south-east Queensland and northern NSW. “Extreme rainfall is consistent with the type of events scientists expect to see more often in a warming climate,” the report says.

Despite some of the staggering records set, the worst is yet to come, the report suggests:

“Looking towards the future, it is virtually certain that extreme hot weather will continue to become even more frequent and severe around the globe, including Australia, over the coming decades. It is also likely that the frequency of heavy rainfall will increase over many areas of the globe … In Australia and around the world we need to urgently invest in clean energy sources and take other measures to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases. This is the critical decade to get on with the job.”

ALP leadership debate likely to continue

Katina Curtis, AAPMarch 10, 2013, 4:44 pm

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As federal Labor MPs pack their suitcases to return to Canberra this week they could well bring further leadership speculation with them.

The question of who should lead the party went on the backburner during Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s western Sydney tour last week.

But Labor’s crushing defeat in the West Australian election on Saturday combined with a likely poor Newspoll result on Tuesday could again spark discussion.

WA premier Colin Barnett says the state election result – in which the Liberals retained all the seats they won in 2008 and add several more – had nothing to do with federal politics.

But senior federal politicians from WA including Defence Minister Stephen Smith said it was a reflection on the sorry state of Labor.

A Galaxy poll, published in News Limited on Sunday, showed voters split between Ms Gillard, Kevin Rudd or some other Labor figure as prime minister.

A third of voters said they wanted a fresh start while a similar amount favoured Ms Gillard.

Mr Rudd came in as the third choice, with 26 per cent wanting him to return as Labor’s leader.

With this the final parliamentary fortnight before the May budget, Labor backbenchers are expected to raise the issue of increasing the Newstart allowance during the partyroom meeting.

Community sector lobby groups have called for a $50-a-week increase as well as a boost in work incentives.

There is also expected to be caucus discussion on 457 temporary work visas – a hot topic during Ms Gillard’s western Sydney sojourn.

Some MPs say the program is good for economic growth and shouldn’t be talked down while others back the prime minister in cracking down on rorts.

In the chambers, debate on the national disability insurance scheme is expected to wrap up in the House of Representatives.

It should pass easily with the opposition indicating it will support the legislation.
The Senate will be looking at the recognition act for indigenous people and legislation to beef up the sports anti-doping authority’s powers in the wake of the Australian Crime Commission revelations of drug use across sporting codes.