Author: Neville

  • A Fork in the Road HANSEN

    A Fork in the Road
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    James Hansen jimehansen@gmail.com via mail37.wdc01.mcdlv.net

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    A Fork in the Road
    A response to Joe Nocera’s column in today’s New York Times is available here or on my web site. Apologies to Bill McKibben for the comment that could be misconstrued — I do not question the efforts to wake up the public to the situation at hand, and pressure elected officials to serve the public interest, not special interests.

    ~Jim
    19 February 2013
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    Dr. James E. Hansen
    http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1

  • Rapid Changes in the Arctic Ecosystem During Ice Minimum in Summer 2012

    Rapid Changes in the Arctic Ecosystem During Ice Minimum in Summer 2012

    Feb. 14, 2013 — Huge quantities of algae are growing on the underside of sea ice in the Central Arctic: in 2012 the ice algae Melosira arctica was responsible for almost half the primary production in this area. When the ice melts, as was the case during the ice minimum in 2012, these algae sink rapidly to the bottom of the sea at a depth of several thousands of metres. Deep sea animals such as sea cucumbers and brittle stars feed on the algae, and bacteria metabolise what’s left, consuming the oxygen in the sea bed.

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    This short-term reaction of the deep sea ecosystem to changes in sea ice cover and ocean productivity has now been published in the scientific journal Science by a multidisciplinary team of researchers around Prof. Dr. Antje Boetius from the Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI), Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research and from the Max Planck Institute for Marine Microbiology in Bremen.

    Scientists and technicians from twelve nations travelled the Central Arctic on the research icebreaker Polarstern in the late summer of 2012. In and under the ice they used a large number of ultra-modern research devices and methods such as camera-guided sampling devices and an under-ice remotely operating vehicle (ROV). Prof. Antje Boetius, who leads the Helmholtz-Max Planck Research Group on Deep-Sea Ecology and Technology has a first answer to the all-important question of how the Arctic is changing due to warming: “Far quicker than has so far been expected! The seabed at a depth of more than 400 metres was littered with clumps of ice algae which had attracted lots of sea cucumbers and brittle stars,” explains the microbiologist.

    The algal deposits with diameters of up to 50 centimetres covered up to ten per cent of the seabed. The researchers were able to count them using an Ocean Floor Observation System (OFOS). Also for the first time in the ice-covered Arctic, the Helmholtz-Max Planck researcher Dr. Frank Wenzhöfer was able to measure the bacterial and faunal oxygen consumption directly in the deep sea using micro-sensors. And life was thriving under the algae cover: bacteria had started to decompose the algae as evident from a greatly reduced oxygen content in the sediment. By contrast, the sea bed in the adjacent algae-free areas was aerated down to a depth of 80 centimetres and had virtually no algal residues.

    But where do the large quantities of algae on the deep-sea floor come from? Plants cannot grow in 4000 m water depth because there is no light. Using an ROV, the researchers found lots of remains of ice algae everywhere under the sea ice. “It has been known for some time that diatoms of the type Melosira arctica can form long chains under the ice. However, such a massive occurrence has so far only been described for coastal regions and old, thick sea ice ,” explains Boetius. When planning the expedition three years ago the researchers proposed the hypothesis that ice algae could grow faster under the thinning sea ice of the Central Arctic. And the observations now published in the scientific journal Science support their hypothesis: at 45 per cent, the ice algae were responsible for almost half of the primary production in the Central Arctic Basin. The remaining primary production was attributable to other diatoms and nanoplankton which live in the upper layers of the water column.

    Normally, the small phytoplankton cell sinks only very slowly through the water column and is largely consumed already within the ocean surface layer. By contrast, the long chains of algae formed by Melosira arctica are heavy and can quickly sink to the bottom of the sea. In this way they exported more than 85 per cent of the carbon fixed by primary production from the water surface to the deep sea in summer 2012, just before the expedition. The researchers suppose that the algae had actually grown recently because they found only one-year old ice in the Central Arctic, and because the algae extracted from the guts of sea cucumbers were still able to photosynthesise upon return to the ship’s laboratory. The good nutritional state of the sea cucumbers was also evidence of the massive food supply: the zoologist Dr. Antonina Rogacheva of the P.P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology found that the animals were larger than normal and with highly developed reproductive organs — an indication that they had been eating abundantly for some two months.

    The sea ice physicists on board investigated why ice algae are able to thrive beneath the thinning Arctic sea ice, and how they may also lose their habitat quickly due to the increasing ice melt. They determined the ice thickness with an electromagnetic probe dragged by a helicopter and by ice drillings. They also used an underwater robot (ROV) to view the ice from below and to measure how much light penetrates through the ice. Dr. Marcel Nicolaus from the Alfred Wegener Institute explains: “At the end of the summer we still found a lot of ice algae remains, and could quantify them by using an under-ice ROV. The increasing cover by melt ponds permits more light to permeate the ice, and makes the algae grow faster.” However, since the ice has become so much thinner in recent years, and the Arctic so much warmer, the ice algae will melt out more quickly from the ice and sink.

    “We were able to demonstrate for the first time that the warming and the associated physical changes in the Central Arctic cause fast reactions in the entire ecosystem down to the deep sea,” summarises lead author Boetius. The deep sea has so far been seen as a relatively inert system affected by global warming only with a considerable temporal delay. The fact that microbial decomposition processes fueled by the algal deposits can generate anoxic spots in the deep sea floor within one season alarms the researcher: “We do not know yet whether we have observed a one-time phenomenon or whether this high algal export will continue in the coming years.” Current predictions by climate models assume that an ice-free summer could occur in the Arctic in the next decades. Boetius and her team warn: “We still understand far too little about the function of the Arctic ecosystem and its biodiversity and productivity, to be able to estimate the consequences of the rapid sea-ice decline.”

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  • Scientists Explore New Technologies That Remove Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

    Scientists Explore New Technologies That Remove Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

    Feb. 16, 2013 — In his Feb. 12 State of the Union address, President Obama singled out climate change as a top priority for his second administration. “We can choose to believe that Superstorm Sandy, and the most severe drought in decades, and the worst wildfires some states have ever seen were all just a freak coincidence,” he said. “Or we can choose to believe in the overwhelming judgment of science — and act before it’s too late.”

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    Four years ago, the president addressed rising global temperatures by pledging a 17 percent cut in carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gas emissions in the United States by 2020, and an 80 percent cut by 2050. The administration has taken a number of steps to meet those goals, such as investing billions of dollars in wind, solar and other carbon-neutral energy technologies.

    But reducing CO2 emissions may not be enough to curb global warming, according to scientists at Stanford University. The solution, they say, could also require developing carbon-negative technologies that remove large amounts of CO2 from the atmosphere. Their findings are summarized in a report by Stanford’s Global Climate and Energy Project (GCEP).

    “To achieve the targeted cuts, we would need a scenario where, by the middle of the century, the global economy is transitioning from net positive to net negative CO2 emissions,” said report co-author Chris Field, a professor of biology and of environmental Earth system science at Stanford. “We need to start thinking about how to implement a negative-emissions energy strategy on a global scale.”

    In the GCEP report, Field and lead author Jennifer Milne describe a suite of emerging carbon-negative solutions to global warming — from bioenergy technologies to ocean sequestration. Many of the examples cited were initially presented at a negative carbon emissions workshop hosted by GCEP in 2012.

    BECCS

    “Net negative emissions can be achieved when more greenhouse gases are sequestered than are released into the atmosphere,” explained Milne, an energy assessment analyst at GCEP. “One of the most promising net-negative technologies is BECCS, or bioenergy with carbon capture and storage.”

    A typical BECCS system converts woody biomass, grass and other vegetation into electricity, chemical products or fuels, such as ethanol. CO2 emissions released during the process are captured and stored. The technology can be used in power plants, paper mills, ethanol processors and other manufacturing facilities.

    As a carbon-negative technology, BECCS takes advantage of the innate ability of trees, grasses and other plants to absorb atmospheric CO2 for photosynthesis. In nature, the CO2 is eventually released back into the atmosphere as the plant decays. But when vegetation is processed at a BECCS facility, the CO2 emissions are captured and prevented from re-entering the environment. The result is a net-negative reduction in atmospheric CO2.

    The GCEP report identified 16 BECCS projects at various stages of development around the world. The first project was launched in 2009 by the Department of Energy at a corn ethanol production facility in Decatur, Ill., operated by the Archer Daniel Midlands Company. Each day, about 1,000 metric tons of CO2 emitted during ethanol fermentation are captured and stored in a sandstone formation some 7,000 feet underground. The goal of the project is to sequester 1 million metric tons of CO2 a year — the equivalent of removing 200,000 automobiles from the road.

    Approximately 60 percent of global CO2 emissions come from power plants and other industries fueled by coal, natural gas and oil. Capturing and sequestering those emissions could play a significant role in curbing global warming. To make the process carbon negative, researchers have proposed a BECCS co-fired power plant that runs on a mixture of fossil fuel (such as coal) and vegetation (wood, grass or straw, for example). A percentage of the CO2 emissions would come from burnt vegetation. Therefore, capturing and storing those emissions would be a net-negative process.

    Estimates show that by 2050, BECCS technologies could sequester 10 billion metric tons of industrial CO2 emissions annually worldwide. But according to the GCEP report, major technical and economic hurdles must be overcome, such as the relative inefficiency of biomass fuels and the high cost of carbon capture and storage (CCS).

    Financial incentives are needed to encourage private sector investment in CCS and BECCS, said Olivia Ricci of the University of Orléans in France. “To meet ambitious climate targets, a cost-effective policy would be to implement a carbon tax and to recycle the revenues to subsidize captured emissions from biomass,” Ricci said. A carbon tax would put a price on CO2 emissions and increase the competitiveness of CCS, while an emission subsidy would encourage BECCS deployment, she added.

    “We’re going to be burning fossil fuels for many years to come,” said Field, who also serves as director of the Carnegie Institution Department of Global Ecology at Stanford. “BECCS is one of the only proven technologies that uses fossil fuels and actually removes CO2 from the atmosphere.”

    Biochar

    Field and Milne also assessed the pros and cons of biochar — a carbon-negative technology based on the same principal as BECCS.

    Biochar is a plant byproduct similar to charcoal that can be made from lumber waste, dried corn stalks and other plant residues. Heating vegetation slowly without oxygen — a process called pyrolysis — produces carbon-rich chunks of biochar that can be placed in the soil as fertilizer. Like BECCS, the goal is to permanently lock carbon underground instead of letting CO2 re-enter the atmosphere as the plant decomposes.

    One advantage of biochar is its simplicity, the authors said. Implementing biochar technology on a global scale could result in the sequestration of billions of metric tons of carbon a year, they added.

    However, long-term sequestration “would require high biochar stability,” they wrote. “Estimates of biochar half‐life vary greatly from 10 years to more than 100 years. The type of feedstock also contributes to stability, with wood being more stable than grasses and manure.”

    In addition to long-term stability, questions have been raised about the impact of biochar on soil conservation, biodiversity and water use. As an example, the authors pointed to research showing that negative effects on soil fertility can occur if the pH of the biochar and the soil are not well matched.

    According to the authors, biochar systems can be net negative if the biochar is made from waste biomass, sustainably harvested crop residues or crops grown on abandoned land that has not reverted to forest. On the other hand, biochar production that relies on forest ecosystems may result in a net increase in greenhouse gas emissions, they cautioned.

    Net-negative farming

    Even large agricultural systems can be net negative. The GCEP report cited research by Jose Moreira of the University of Sao Paulo. Using computer models, Moreira found that from 1975 to 2007, ethanol production from sugar cane in Brazil resulted in a net-negative capture of 1.5 metric tons of CO2 per cubic meter of ethanol produced. “In this model, the system took 18 years to recoup carbon emissions, with most reductions coming from soil replenishment from root growth and replacement of gasoline with ethanol,” the GCEP authors wrote. However, questions remain about the long-term effects of ethanol combustion on climate.

    The report also explored the possibility of sequestering carbon in the ocean, with a particular focus on the problem of ocean acidification, which is destroying coral reefs around the world. Ocean acidification results from the increased uptake of atmospheric CO2, which causes seawater to become more acidic. The authors cited research by David Keith of Harvard University suggesting that magnesium carbonate and other minerals could be added to the ocean to reduce acidity and sequester atmospheric CO2 absorbed in seawater. Although the potential for CO2 sequestration in the ocean is large, “the associated risks to the marine environment need to be adequately assessed,” the authors concluded.

    Keith has also launched a startup company called Carbon Engineering that’s developing industrial-scale machines — “artificial trees” — that are designed to capture CO2 directly from the air. Unlike BECCS and biochar systems, which produce electricity or fuels, mechanical “trees” do not generate power and, in fact, require natural gas to operate.

    Following the 2012 negative-emissions workshop, GCEP issued an international request for proposals to develop net-negative carbon emissions technologies. The awardees will be announced later this year. Up to to $6 million could be awarded.

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  • Climate Change’s Costly Wild Weather Consequences

    Climate Change’s Costly Wild Weather Consequences

    Feb. 15, 2013 — Throughout 2012, the United States was battered by severe weather events such as hurricanes and droughts that affected both pocketbooks and livelihoods. Research suggests that in the coming years, U.S. five-day forecasts will show greater numbers of extreme weather events, a trend linked to human-driven climate change.

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    Donald Wuebbles, a professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, will discuss extreme weather in a presentation Feb. 15 at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in Boston.

    In recent decades, multi-day heat waves and severe precipitation have become more frequent. For example, in the U.S. in the 1950s, the number of days that set record high temperatures was equal to the number of days that set record low temperatures. By the 2000s, the United States was twice as likely to see a record high as a record low.

    “Human-driven climate change is in fact driving changes in severe weather, and that leads to a lot of potential impacts in both humans and wildlife that end up being costly in many different ways,” Wuebbles said.

    As the global climate changes, normal weather patterns are altered. This is because the increasingly warmer atmosphere holds larger amounts of water vapor, which energizes storms, Wuebbles said.

    The consequences of severe weather are much greater than the disappointment of a missed picnic or the inconvenience of a power outage. Weather-related disasters incur huge expenses, taxing both public funds and private equity. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 11 extreme weather events costing more than $1 billion each occurred in 2012.

    “What we’ve seen in general is that the number of billion-dollar events has increased over the last three decades,” Wuebbles said. “It’s not just hurricanes, it’s really a number of different types of weather extremes that are increasing, and that’s what the worry is.”

    In his talk, Wuebbles will discuss the current understanding of severe weather in relation to the science of climate change, as well as speak about the issues and uncertainties that will affect the U.S. and world in the coming years.

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  • Secrets of the Rich MONBIOT

    Secrets of the Rich

    Posted: 18 Feb 2013 12:28 PM PST

    Billionaires are hiding behind a network of “independent” groups, who manipulate politics on their behalf.

    By George Monbiot, published in the Guardian 19th February 2013.

    Conspiracies against the public don’t get much uglier than this. As the Guardian revealed last week, two secretive organisations working for US billionaires have spent $118m to ensure that no action is taken to prevent manmade climate change(1). While inflicting untold suffering on the world’s people, their funders have used these opaque structures to ensure that their identities are never exposed.

    The two organisations – the Donors’ Trust and the Donors’ Capital Fund – were set up as political funding channels for people handing over $1m or more. They have financed 102 organisations which either dismiss climate science or downplay the need to take action. The large number of recipients creates the impression that there are many independent voices challenging climate science. These groups, working through the media, mobilising gullible voters and lobbying politicians, helped to derail Obama’s cap and trade bill and the climate talks at Copenhagen. Now they’re seeking to prevent the US president from trying again(2).

    This covers only part of the funding. In total, between 2002 and 2010 the two identity-laundering groups paid $311m to 480 organisations(3), most of which take positions of interest to the ultra-rich and the corporations they run: less tax, less regulation, a smaller public sector. Around a quarter of the money received by the rightwing opinion swarm comes from the two foundations. If this funding were not effective, it wouldn’t exist: the ultra-rich didn’t get that way by throwing their money around randomly. The organisations they support are those which advance their interests.

    A small number of the funders have been exposed by researchers trawling through tax records. They include the billionaire Koch brothers (paying into the two groups through their Knowledge and Progress Fund) and the DeVos family (the billionaire owners of Amway)(4). More significantly, we now know a little more about the recipients. Many describe themselves as free market or conservative think tanks.

    Among them are the American Enterprise Institute, the American Legislative Exchange Council, the Hudson Institute, Competitive Enterprise Institute, Reason Foundation, Heritage Foundation, Americans for Prosperity, Mont Pelerin Society and the Discovery Institute(5). All of them pose as learned societies, earnestly trying to determine the best interests of the public. The exposure of this funding reinforces the claim by David Frum, formerly a fellow of the American Enterprise Institute, that such groups “increasingly function as public-relations agencies”(6).

    One name in particular jumped out at me: American Friends of the IEA. The Institute of Economic Affairs is a British group which, like all the others, calls itself a free market thinktank. Scarcely a day goes by on which its staff are not interviewed in the broadcast media, promoting the dreary old billionaires’ agenda: less tax for the rich, less help for the poor, less spending by the state, less regulation for business. In the first 13 days of February, its people were on the BBC ten times(7).

    Never have I heard its claim to be an independent thinktank challenged by the BBC. When, in 2007, I called the institute a business lobby group, its then director-general responded, in a letter to the Guardian, that “we are independent of all business interests”(8). Oh yes?

    The database, published by the Canadian site desmogblog.com, shows that American Friends of the IEA has received (up to 2010) $215,000 from the two secretive funds(8). When I spoke to the IEA’s fundraising manager, she confirmed that the sole purpose of American Friends is to raise money for the organisation in London(9). She agreed that the IEA has never disclosed the Donors’ Trust money it has received. She denied that the institute is a sockpuppet organisation: purporting to be independent while working for some very powerful US interests.

    Would the BBC allow someone from Bell Pottinger to discuss an issue of concern to its sponsors without revealing the sponsors’ identity? No. So what’s the difference? What distinguishes an acknowledged public relations company taking money from a corporation or a billionaire from a so-called thinktank, funded by the same source to promote the same agenda?

    The IEA is registered with the Charity Commission as an educational charity(10). The same goes for Nigel Lawson’s climate misinformation campaign (the Global Warming Policy Foundation(11)) and a host of other dubious “thinktanks”. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: it is outrageous that the Charity Commission allows organisations which engage in political lobbying and refuse to reveal their major funders to claim charitable status(12).

    This is the new political frontier. Corporations and their owners have learnt not to show their hands. They tend to avoid the media, aware that they will damage their brands by being seen to promote the brutal agenda that furthers their interests. So they have learnt from the tobacco companies: stay hidden and pay other people to do it for you(13).

    They need a network of independent-looking organisations which can produce plausible arguments in defence of their positions. Once the arguments have been developed, projecting them is easy. Most of the media are owned by billionaires, who are happy to promote the work of people funded by the same class(14). One of the few outlets they don’t own – the BBC – has been disgracefully incurious about the identity of those to whom it gives a platform.

    By these means the ultra-rich come to dominate the political conversation, without declaring themselves(15,16). Those they employ are clever and well-trained. They have money their opponents can only dream of. They are skilled at rechannelling the public anger which might otherwise have been directed at their funders: the people who have tanked the economy, who use the living planet as their dustbin, who won’t pay their taxes and who demand that the poor must pay for the mistakes of the rich. Anger, thanks to the work of these hired hands, is instead aimed at the victims or opponents of the billionaires: people on benefits, the trade unions, Greenpeace, the American Civil Liberties Union.

    The answer, as ever, is transparency. As the so-called thinktanks come to play an ever more important role in politics, we need to know who they are working for. Any group – whether the Institute of Economic Affairs or Friends of the Earth – which attempts to influence public life should declare all donations greater than £1000. We’ve had a glimpse of who’s paying. Now we need to see the rest of the story.

    www.monbiot.com

    References:

    1. http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2013/feb/14/funding-climate-change-denial-thinktanks-network

    2. http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2013/feb/14/donors-trust-funding-climate-denial-networks

    3. http://desmogblog.com/2012/10/23/fakery-2-more-funny-finances-free-tax

    4. http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2013/02/donors-trust-donor-capital-fund-dark-money-koch-bradley-devos

    5. See the xls attachment at the bottom of http://desmogblog.com/2012/10/23/fakery-2-more-funny-finances-free-tax

    6. http://nymag.com/news/politics/conservatives-david-frum-2011-11/

    7. http://www.iea.org.uk/in-the-media/media-coverage

    8. http://www.iea.org.uk/in-the-media/media-coverage/naughty-george

    9. Caroline Rollag, 18th February 2013.

    10. http://www.charitycommission.gov.uk/Showcharity/RegisterOfCharities/CharityWithPartB.aspx?RegisteredCharityNumber=235351&SubsidiaryNumber=0

    11. For a good summary of the GWPF and its secret funding, please see http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2013/feb/15/secret-funding-climate-sceptics-not-restricted-us

    12. Here’s what happened when I tried to get the conservative “think tanks” to tell me who funds them: http://www.monbiot.com/2011/09/12/think-of-a-tank/

    13. For a fascinating account of how the Tea Party movement was orignally proposed by tobacco companies, before it was launched by the Koch brothers, see this paper: http://tobaccocontrol.bmj.com/content/early/2013/02/07/tobaccocontrol-2012-050815.abstract

    14. See these revelations about the collusion between the corporate media and the Adam Smith Institute: http://www.monbiot.com/2012/10/01/plutocracy%E2%80%99s-boot-boys/

    15. http://www.monbiot.com/2010/10/25/toxic-brew/

    16. http://www.monbiot.com/2011/08/01/how-the-billionaires-broke-the-system/

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  • China’s Army Is Seen as Tied to Hacking Against U.S.

    |BREAKING NEWS ALERT

    NYTimes.com |Video

    SPECIAL REPORTMonday, February 18, 2013 10:02 PM EST

    China’s Army Is Seen as Tied to Hacking Against U.S.

    A growing body of digital forensic evidence — confirmed by American intelligence officials who say they have tapped into the activity of a unit of cyberwarriors in China’s army — leaves little doubt that an overwhelming percentage of the attacks on American corporations, organizations and government agencies originate in and around a 12-story building on the outskirts of Shanghai.

    An unusually detailed 60-page study, to be released Tuesday by Mandiant, an American computer security firm, tracks for the first time individual members of the most sophisticated of the Chinese hacking groups — known to many of its victims in the United States as “Comment Crew” or “Shanghai Group” — to the doorstep of the headquarters of a People’s Liberation Army unit.

    While Comment Crew has drained terabytes of data from companies like Coca-Cola, increasingly its focus is on companies involved in the critical infrastructure of the United States — its electrical power grid, gas lines and waterworks.

    READ MORE »
    http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/19/technology/chinas-army-is-seen-as-tied-to-hacking-against-us.html?emc=na

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