Author: Neville

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Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
New South Wales

Significant Weather Media Release
Issued at 3:30 pm EDT on Friday 25 January 2013.

Heavy rain, gale force winds and dangerous surf over the long weekend

The Bureau of Meteorology is warning that ex-tropical cyclone Oswald will bring
heavy rain, gale force winds and damaging surf conditions to the northern half
of the New South Wales coast over the long weekend.

The Bureau’s New South Wales Regional Director, Barry Hanstrum, said that the
low-pressure system currently affecting Queensland will continue to track
south, bringing heavy rain and the potential for major flooding to New South
Wales river valleys from the Queensland border to the Hunter Valley.

“This slow-moving weather system will reach the far north-east on Saturday
bringing heavy rainfall, before moving south to the mid-north coast and
adjacent ranges on Sunday and Monday. Communities at risk include Ballina,
Byron Bay, Grafton, Coffs Harbour and Port Macquarie,” Mr Hanstrum said.

“Widespread heavy rainfall of around 200mm is expected from the Queensland
border to Port Macquarie. Localised falls in excess of 300mm, may lead to flash
flooding in those areas.

“On Sunday the rainfall is expected to extend west of the Dividing Range,
affecting Moree, Inverell and south to eastern parts of the Hunter Valley
including Newcastle.

“Gale force winds will produce high seas and damaging surf conditions, with
coastal erosion possible in vulnerable areas from Sunday. The rain and wind
will ease from most areas on Tuesday as the low tracks eastward, but dangerous
surf will continue into Wednesday,” Mr Hanstrum said.

Residents and holiday-makers should stay tuned for the latest warnings through
the Bureau’s website and through media channels.

NSW SES Commissioner Murray Kear is urging holiday-makers to consider the
severe weather when making their travel plans.

“Only necessary travel on roads should be done over the long weekend period in
these areas as there is the potential for major roads and highways to be cut
off by floodwater. If you do come across a flooded road, don’t drive through
it. Motorists should stay up to date with the latest road information from
livetraffic.com.

“People holidaying in the affected areas should also keep up to date with the
latest weather information. Campers, in particular, should move to higher
ground during the severe weather as there is the potential for low-lying areas
to be inundated,” Mr Kear said.

“If you need emergency help in a flood or storm call the NSW SES on 132 500. If
your situation is life-threatening call 000,” he added.

Media Contacts:

Bureau of Meteorology NSW Regional Office
Phone 0432 746 432 Email media@bom.gov.au

NSW SES Media (02) 4225 7500

For more information, see NSW Media Releases:
www.bom.gov.au/announcements/media_releases/nsw/

Note: This product provides supplementary information about a current or recent
significant weather or a warning.

Battle has just begun for supermarket giants

Date January 25, 2013 – 11:46AM 216 reading now

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Colin Kruger

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Where to next? … Coles and Woolies are looking for new sources of growth. Illustration: Simon Bosch

It’s two years to the day since Coles declared war on Woolworths, slashing its price of milk to just $1. With shares in both supermarket giants now at more than five-year highs, how do these archrivals maintain growth in a stagnant market?

One answer was provided recently when Coles extended its grocery price war to the corner store. Coles is now offering its home brand milk at $2 for two litres at 600 Coles Express outlets, and cut the price of its Coles branded bread.

Woolworths matched the deal, ensuring Australia’s $4 billion a year convenience store market comes under even more pressure. These stores were already getting caught in the crossfire when Coles and Woolies introduced cheap milk and bread to their supermarkets two years ago.

A report by the Australian Association of Convenience Stores (AACS) for the 2011 calendar year gave some indication of the damage.

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‘‘Take home milk and bread were affected by the heavily reduced everyday price in supermarkets with both categories in declining in value, milk by six per cent, and bread by almost 11 per cent,’’ said the AACS.

The targeting of the convenience sector went beyond cheap bread and milk, the self service check outs in Coles and Woolies supermarkets were also designed to entice convenience shoppers that would otherwise have gone to their corner shop.

According to the AACS report, Coles said its own convenience channel, the Coles Express stores, experienced a decline in merchandise sales in the first quarter of 2012 as customers shifted their purchases to supermarkets.

It won’t just be corner shops and rival franchises – like 7-Eleven – that will be feeling the heat.

In April last year independent grocery wholesaler, Metcash, was forced to gut its convenience store wholesaler, Campbells Cash & Carry, because its regional customers were not able to compete with $1 a litre milk from the supermarket giants.

After Metcash’s first half results in November last year, analysts were reporting that the company was losing marketshare, and revenue, in its core food and grocery business for the first time.

It is all unquestionably good news for Coles and Woolworths which is being reflected in stock prices which are trading at multi-year highs. Woolworths is up 19 per cent for the financial year to date, and Wesfarmers has gained more than 25 per cent over the same period.

Their good fortune is expected to be underlined by the release of first quarter sales results next week.

Both retailers are expected to benefit from the easing of food price deflation which is evident from the recent release of consumer price index (CPI) data.

It showed that food CPI was 0.3 per cent for the December quarter compared to -1.1 per cent for the September quarter.

Deutsche Bank retail analyst Michael Simotas said that – combined with strong volume growth over the key holiday period – it ‘‘should result in solid sales announcements next week.’’

But concerns are being expressed about how much more growth the giants can wring out of the Australian market.

Coles still has some natural headroom to grow as a result of years of underperformance under previous owners – as well as an underperforming liquor business which is finally threatening to compete with the Woolworths liquor juggernaut.

This means the big questions are being asked of Woolworths which may be running out of easy growth options now that its largest rival has regained competitiveness.

In November, respected Merrill Lynch retail analyst, David Errington, asked some of the hardest questions of Woolies which is having to work harder, and at greater cost, for any gains it is making in the market.

While Coles has been generating most of its sales growth from a relatively static footprint – which speaks volumes about the quality of its earnings – ‘‘Woolworths earnings quality has been deteriorating for the past five years,’’ reports Errington.

Despite a costly new store, and store refurbishment program, sales growth has been declining and reported earnings growth before interest and tax has relied on gross margin expansion – at the expense of suppliers – which cannot continue indefinitely, according to the broker.

Its high cost entry into the hardware sector with Masters is another potential risk.

Return on investment is falling as the company chases sales growth says Merrill Lynch which slapped a $22 price objective on the stock in November last year at a time when it was trading at $28.50. The stock has added another $3 since then.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/battle-has-just-begun-for-supermarket-giants-20130125-2daxl.html#ixzz2IypHnZeh

Rebuilding optimism of will for effective climate activism

Posted: 23 Jan 2013 05:35 PM PST
Many climate activists have experienced depression, exhaustion, and alienation as the time-frame for acting to avoid climate disruption shrinks. So whilst pessimism of the intellect is growing sharper, how do we “right the balance” and grow optimism of the will?

By Trent Hawkins

Che Guevara said that “the true revolutionary is guided by strong feelings of love”. But not just any love, the love of humanity that transcends the day to day love of individuals (our family for example) In a way its a shame that the actual content of this paragraph from Che has been bastardised to be about some nebulous love that drives revolutionaries. Instead what Che was talking about was a very real dilemma. How to keep ourselves motivated, heading towards the goal, when we have so little time for our real “loved ones”, so little time for ourselves, and to develop our personal lives.
This is a serious issue that is often unconsidered by the left. But more over today those of us who have invested years to the cause of stopping climate change are at risk of demoralisation, depression, exhaustion, and alienation. For me this has been a confronting reality as I have struggled with depression for the better part of 2012 and have undertaken to see a psychologist. I suspect there are others out there in a similar state of mind.There is an idea that well sums up the reality of our task as climate activists “combining pessimism of the intellect with optimism of the will”. Unfortunately getting the balance right is no easy task, nor will that balance be achieved accidentally.
My view is that scientists are now saying we have “blown the budget” and we are certain to overshoot the 2 degree C “threshold”. David Spratt has been writing some good pieces about this lately and the fact that even if we could adhere to a budget it is increasingly necessary that emissions “fall off a cliff”. These two pieces are highly recommended: Arctic warning: As the system changes, we must adjust our science and A sober assessment of our situation.
Given that the climate movement has focussed on setting targets/deadlines/time-frames, seeing an ever shrinking time-frame for acting to avoid climate disruption is very depressing indeed. Moreover many of us look at the size of the task and further despair at how far we have to go to win the support necessary for change.
So we are faced with an unanswerable riddle. How to steer the boat away from the iceberg, when the captain and crew are convinced there is no iceberg, and the passengers are too busy enjoying themselves. How does a small group, aware of the problem, organise a mutiny in time?
So whilst pessimism of the intellect is growing sharper, how do we “right the balance” and grow optimism of the will?
It is my view that the only real time-frame of concern to us is the time-frame necessary to build a movement large enough to win the political power necessary to enact change. In my view it takes nothing less than ten years to build such a movement, after reaching the point of achieving a unified leadership. Sadly we are too disunited and have too many bases for disagreement that a united leadership is some way off. Panicking about impending doom doesn’t help us much with the organised patient work of building a movement.
So where do we begin?
It is the imperative of the climate movement leadership to rebuild optimism in the face of our challenge and there needs to be concrete demonstrable actions undertaken to illustrate to all the activists in the climate movement reasons to be optimistic.
The first demonstrable action should be a commitment to greater unity amongst the climate movement and the marking out of points of agreement.
My observation is that the climate movement is presently dominated by a number of different NGOs each trying to compete for funding, members, and political space, ultimately acting in their own self interest. This obviously has an impact on trying to develop unity.
The socialist movement has a good slogan “strike together, march separately”. Different groups and organisation have different strategies for social change and thus we can accept that we will “march separately”, but wherever there is a basis for unity on a specific issue we can “strike together”.
What I mean by this is that there are two levels of unity. Unity at a strategic level and unity at a tactical level. On both levels however it is essential that unity is marked out on clearly defined basis. We need genuine unity, not amorphous getting together and papering over the differences. This is what is happening with the merger between a number of Socialist organisations in Australia. When I quizzed Colleen Bolger from Socialist Alternative on what they where actually proposing as concrete points of unity, that is. what they actually agreed upon, she said “well we both agree upon being revolutionary”. This kind of amorphous phraseology just won’t do; the specifics need to be traced out explicitly.
There is an elephant in the room here which is the fundamental disagreements between two different camps in the climate movement. Those that see incremental reforms as a precursor to achieving the political will for large scale change on climate policy, and those that see those incremental reforms as a diversion from winning broad political and grassroots support for political change that acts at the scale and timeframe that the climate science indicates is necessary.
My view is that it ought to be our focus to build a grassroots movement and that all those groups who fall into this camp need to get together to mark out points of strategic agreement in achieving unity at this level.
But this is not to reject the other side as being completely useless. Instead as I said we can “strike together, march separately”. Where there is a confluence of views on a particular issue why would we let our strategic differences get in the way of working together on an issue we do agree upon? This doesn’t stop us from voicing our opinions about the inadequacies of each others strategy. We can certainly voice criticisms and highlight the contradictions when they become apparent, but constant verbal assaults are not useful when they jeopardise working together at particular points in time.
There are plenty of examples that show how solidarity can work. Look at the Vietnam War. The main demand here was “Bring the Troops Home”. A number of groups could agree on that, even if they had substantial disagreements about the nature of the Vietnamese Communist Party, or the role of the United Nations. The same thing can be said of the “Equal Marriage Rights” campaign. A clear demand that unites people and groups, but sets aside the trickier differences around issues like the nature of marriage under Capitalism.
The problem is that unity is often couched in ideological terms based on agreement with scientific principles, e.g., what amount of atmospheric CO2e amount is considered a “safe climate”; or whether 2 degrees is an appropriate target to aim for. Unity needs to be based on actual strategic or tactical issues, some examples of these might be: do we need a revolution or not; is it more important to find the best messaging, or do we need to build networks on the ground; is door knocking a useful tactic or not; etc, etc. It would be great to use the Climate Summit as a space to brainstorm some of these.
I strongly believe the challenge of building unity is a problem of leadership. We need leadership that puts collective interest ahead of self-interest with a long term vision for growing a culture that fosters unity and challenges egotistical, selfish behaviour. The climate leadership needs to guard against individualising forces and the disruptive behaviour of self serving individuals wanting to get their way at the expense of the group.
Leadership is a space or forum for getting together and working out what to do next. It is not a hierarchical representative body that makes decisions in the interest of others. In that sense the ‘leaders’ in the climate movement need to consciously cultivate an non-exclusionary environment based on patience; respect; constructive healthy debate; democracy and teamwork. I intend to develop these ideas further in later pieces.
Granted I work at BZE which has certainly not been at the forefront of this attitude. Whilst I don’t write this with my BZE hat on, I do recognise this has been a weakness of the organisation. I’d like to think the organisation has started to address this and I believe there is a broad view amongst the group that it needs to start seriously rebuilding alliances.
Now we have all had a large dose of fear and dread around the latest news on climate change I hope we can shift the debate to what needs to be done to build a successful movement. I think we need to put to the backs of our minds the approaching (or potentially lapsed) deadlines, and accept the reality that it is going to take a large amount of time and work in order to build the grassroots social movement capable of winning the political power necessary to stop climate change.
We need to build genuine unity and develop strong bonds/camaraderie between climate activists as an anti-dote to the grinding down we face under the weight of the challenge. Finally, continuing from his observation about love, Che went on to say:

The revolutionary leaders must have a large dose of humanity, a large dose of a sense of justice and truth to avoid falling into dogmatic extremes, into cold scholasticism, into isolation from the masses. They must struggle every day so that their love of living humanity is transformed into concrete deeds, into acts that will serve as an example, as a mobilizing factor.

Trent Hawkins has been active in the climate movement since 2006, initially in Perth where he helped to organise a number of public demonstrations and events including the 2007 Students of Sustainability Conference. After moving to Melbourne in 2008 he continued his involvement in the climate movement assisting the first human sign protests, participating in the Newcastle and Hazelwood Climate Camps, and the Canberra Climate Summits. Trent was until recently a member of the Socialist Alliance and ran for parliament in the 2007 and 2010 Federal Elections, and the 2010 Victorian State Election. Trent is a mechanical engineer with experience working in renewable energy and volunteered as a researcher for Beyond Zero Emissions on the Zero Carbon Australia Stationary Energy Plans, specifically on the wind energy and transmission upgrades sections (including producing the Google Earth maps). Trent has been spent much of the past two years working as the Project Director of the Zero Carbon Australia Buildings Plan.
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Prediction of Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall and Tropical Storm Activity Close at Hand

Jan. 22, 2013 — The amount of rainfall and number of tropical storms during the summer monsoon season greatly impact the agriculture, economy, and people in Asia. Though meteorologists and climate scientists have worked for years to develop helpful prediction systems, seasonal predictions of these two types of weather phenomena are still poor. Scientists working at the International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii at Manoa, have now made a promising breakthrough for predicting in spring both the summer monsoon rainfall over East Asia and the number of tropical storms affecting East Asian coastal areas.

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The study is published in the January 21, 2013, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

The scientists have shown that both the East Asian summer monsoon and the storm activity in the western North Pacific are controlled by fluctuations in the western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH), a major atmospheric circulation system in the global subtropics centered over the Philippine Sea. When this system is strong in summer, then monsoon rainfall tends to be greater than normal over East Asia, and in the western North Pacific there tend to be fewer tropical storms that make landfall.

With the help of computer modeling experiments, the scientists found that these summer fluctuations in the WPSH are more than 65% predictable in spring. When the Indo-Pacific warm pool shows a dipolar sea surface temperature anomaly (that is, an unusually warm Indian Ocean together with an unusually cool western North Pacific) or the central Pacific tends to cool in spring, then the WPSH will be strong and stable with ensuing greater summer monsoon rainfall over the East Asian monsoon front and the Ganges River Valley in India, but fewer tropical storms will affect East Asian coastal areas and the western subtropical Pacific. The team traced the rainfall and storm variability in the Asian monsoon region to the feedback occurring between the WPSH and the underlying Indo-Pacific warm-pool ocean.

“Our findings create a promising way for predicting monsoon rainfall and tropical storm days during the East Asian summer,” concludes lead author Bin Wang, meteorology professor at the University of Hawaii at Manoa and faculty at the International Pacific Research Center. “As a first step, we use global general circulation models to predict the fluctuations in the WPSH, and then in a second step, we use this forecast to predict rainfall and storm days in regional analyses. We have done hindcasts from 1979 to 2009 using this approach and have found substantially improved skills over the use of dynamical climate models in predicting the East Asian Summer Monsoon rainfall and tropical storm activity.”

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Loss of Arctic Sea Ice Speeds Domino Effect of Warming Temperatures at High Latitudes

Jan. 23, 2013 — Melting Arctic sea ice is no longer just evidence of a rapidly warming planet — it’s also part of the problem.

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Alan Werner, professor of geology at Mount Holyoke College, said that decreasing amounts of Arctic snow and ice in summer will lead to a greater degree of heat absorption at the North Pole.

The reason, Werner said, is because the loss of snow and ice makes Earth’s surface less reflective, meaning solar radiation — or heat — is absorbed in greater amounts by the exposed dark ocean or tundra.

“That’s the thing that’s happening very abruptly, or at least in geologic time scales, very quickly,” Werner said. “That the high latitudes are warming at a much faster rate than the other latitudes.”

Werner’s observation follows the announcement in September by the National Snow and Ice Data Center that the surface area of Arctic sea ice had reached a new low in 2012, breaking a previous record reached in 2007.

What the new data suggests, Werner said, is that the Arctic Ocean will likely be free of sea ice during summer in the next few decades, which may trigger significant changes in climate across the globe.

“One thing about humans living on the planet is that we don’t do well with change,” Werner said. “The changes that we’re talking about are changes that are going to be difficult for humans to adapt to.”

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The above story is reprinted from materials provided by Mount Holyoke College.

Note: Materials may be edited for content and length. For further information, please contact the source cited above.

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Major oil discovery in outback SA
ABC Updated January 24, 2013, 12:46 pm

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Oil explorations in the Arckaringa Basin in South Australia s far north.

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Brisbane company Linc Energy says independent studies have confirmed a major shale oil source in the Arckaringa Basin in South Australia’s far north.

The company says US-consultants have carried out drilling and geological and seismic surveys around Coober Pedy.

Linc Energy holds rights over more than 65,000 square kilometres of land in the area and started explorations in 2008.

In a statement to the Stock Exchange, the company said reports from US-based consultants indicate underlying rock formations “are rich in oil and gas prone kerogen.”

The company says up to 233 million barrels of oil are estimated to be trapped in the shale.

Chief executive Peter Bond says even if the amount of retrievable oil is well below that, the discovery is still “bigger than the Cooper Basin and Bass Strait combined”.

“Even if you stress test it down to only the very best spots in the very best locations with the very highest possibilities, you’re still talking something in the range of 3.5 plus billion barrels,” he said.

“We’ve also spent a lot of time with our own geologists and external geologists trying to unlock what’s the best option there.

“What it could do is really turn this thing into the next boom so where you saw coal-bed methane transform Queensland and the gas industry, shale could and I think will transform South Australia and a potential oil boom.”

But Mr Bond says it could cost up to $300 million to prepare the site for production.

“We’ve got something in excess of a billion dollar market cap… but the issue here isn’t just capital. It’s the expertise to unlock the acreage as well,” he said.

“We will seek a partner to both fund that and work with us from a technical perspective and that could be anybody.

“It could be a major oil company, it could be one of the major operators in shale, it could be one of the larger overseas oil groups.”

Mr Bond says the discovery has the potential to bolster the nation’s energy security.

“We are importing more and more oil every day. Australia was relatively self-sufficient in oil in 2000, 2001 but since then we’ve been falling off the peak oil curve for quite a while now,” he said.

“Australia currently consumes just under a million barrels of oil a day of which we are probably producing something less than half that or around half that depending on the numbers you read.

“You’d have to get up over half a million barrels a day to put yourself into a net energy export position which would be significant.

“Any oil field that can do half a million barrels a day is massive in anyone’s books.

“It would be a push to get to that high. That would basically be getting out to full production. It’s hit all the runs and done all the right things to get up to that size but if it does, you potentially would be getting up around being an oil exporter.

“By then much of your other oil production in Australia would have dropped off even more and you’ll be just starting to fill the gaps there.”

‘Remote and deep’

Shale oil is costlier to extract and more controversial than conventional crude and involves ‘fracking’ in which water is pumped in to break up the shale.

South Australian Mining Minister Tom Koutsantonis says it is much to early to say if the reserve can be profitably tapped.

“What they think they’ve found, or they have found but whether it’s economic to recover or not is still the question, is vast reserves of shale oil,” he said.

“It’s basically oil which is trapped in low-permeability, clay-rich rocks so it’s within the rocks and you fracture-stimulate those rocks to release the oil.

“There are processes now where you can unconventionally retrieve these reserves.

“If the reserves and the pressure was right over millions of years and the rocks have done the things they think they’ve done they think they can extract vast reserves of oil out of South Australia which would have a value of about $20 trillion.
“South Australia is blessed with abundant resources but there are a few setbacks and those setbacks are that they’re remote and they’re deep.”

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