Author: Neville

UN scientist links heatwave to climate change
By environment reporter Sarah Clarke, ABCJanuary 15, 2013, 9:45 am

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The United Nations’ chief climate scientist says there is no doubt last week’s extreme heat in Australia is part of a global warming trend.
More than 250 of the world’s top climate scientists are meeting in Hobart today to prepare the next major report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
They have vowed to deliver “scientifically defensible” findings when the report is released in just over eight months’ time.
Speaking to AM, IPCC chairman Rajendra Pachauri says the world is on track for a rise in temperature of between 1.1C to 6.4C.
“Now this depends on the kind of economic growth you get, a whole lot of other drivers that would essentially lead to climate change,” he said.
“But if you’re going to end up towards the upper end, then that clearly is a very, very serious outcome that we’re looking at.
“You will get more heatwaves – we already are getting more frequent heatwaves – and we are also going to get extreme precipitation events.
“If you look at the trend, it’s pretty unmistakeable and any proper analysis would tell you we are heading in that direction.”
In December, a draft of the report was leaked on climate sceptic websites, in a move Dr Pachauri describes as “very unfortunate”.
“It certainly goes against the agreement that you have with the expert reviewers,” he said.
“Every page of the draft report clearly carries this expectation that this is confidential, because this is a work in progress.”
‘Solid, robust, defensible’
Dr Pachauri says scientists are still working very hard on the final report.
“It’s entirely possible that what we get in the final version may be far stronger or in some cases maybe a little more moderate,” he said.
“I wouldn’t go by any of the conclusions that people have seen as part of the draft report.
“But I’m absolutely certain that what we will get is a very solid, very robust and scientifically defensible report.”
He said the IPCC would look at whether there was any need to change processes in the wake of the leak.
“On the one hand we are supposed to be as open as possible and we should get as many expert reviewers as possible,” he said.
“In the second order draft we’ve had over 31,000 comments.
“We don’t want to restrict it to a point where people might say that you only get your own chosen people to comment on the report.”
But he said drafts should not be made public because they could be misleading and “may not give you the true picture of what the report will finally contain”.
He remains confident of the potential for global action on climate change.
“I am concerned, no doubt, but I also have a high opinion of human wisdom that I think at some stage we will bring about change,” he said.
“I mean the world did act on the Montreal Protocol, the whole problem of depletion of the ozone layer and it happened very fast.
“Now I expect that perhaps this, as is the case, is going to take a little longer, but hopefully we will get action across the board.”

Editorial: Sea level rise a disaster many decades in the making

Staff Writers
The Advertiser
January 13, 2013 10:00PM

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THE plight of the River Murray has shown how environmental disaster can be allowed to sneak up on us despite ample warning, and opportunity for those charged with planning the future, to take preventative action.

A prolonged drought threatened to be the straw that broke the river system’s back, but the cause of the potential disaster was 100 years of over-extraction of water for human use.

Fortunately for the river system and all those who rely on it, at a minute to midnight governments were able to settle their differences and put politics aside to find a solution.

Unlike many natural disasters, the speed of the onset of which will always be problematic, the decline of the Murray, like sea level rise caused by climate change, is a disaster many decades in the making.

It is comforting then to know that early in the process the Department of Environment and Natural Resources hasn’t hidden behind the fact that the danger from sea level rise is long-term.

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Planners have identified which of the State’s lowest lying communities are most at risk. They have also warned that the first thing which needs to change is granting approval for new structures on land which will one day be under water.

Such things will one day seem obvious with the benefit of hindsight but they are certain to be controversial as land owners and other who enjoy a carefree coastal lifestyle look forward to more of the same for decades to come.

Shack communities have nothing to fear in the short term. Scientists argue that the onset of sea level rise will provide authorities with ample time to cope.

There are early signs of the looming problem however. Many people would not know that parts of Port Adelaide currently have to be sand bagged during king tides to prevent sea-level inundation. Or that in the worst predicted scenario up to 43,000 structures are under threat statewide.

The Environment Department has pointed out that there are few options to cope with future inundation. Beachfront protection works are extremely expensive and would have to be extended over large areas. One option which is fair for everyone is that those who are denied development rights on their property because of the future threat be allowed a equivalent opportunity further along the coast. Strategic retreat of homes may also be required and in the worst-case scenario entire shack communities may need to be relocated.

Such early prevention measures do not mean there is any need to panic, they simply highlight the inevitability of long-term changes in sea level. The changes being forecast will take place over the next 100 years.

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ANYONE who makes the effort to undertake further education deserves credit for trying to improve their employment prospects.

Moves by the State Government to offer hundreds of free Certificate I and II courses, and subsidise higher-order qualifications, have made this easier for many with poor literacy and numeracy skills.

But it is incumbent on the government to ensure people are choosing to train in fields which present job opportunities post-graduation.

Analysis has shown too many students are choosing qualifications they might enjoy – like floristry, furniture making or fitness – but which estimates show will equip them for occupations where there are few or no job openings.

The government is consulting with industry to better align study choices with skills shortages so no more funding or effort is wasted.

Figures out today show enrolments in TAFE SA courses have more than doubled since last year.

Let’s hope those students are guided to study in fields where there are jobs waiting when they graduate.

Global food crisis will worsen as heatwaves damage crops, research finds

Harvests will fall dramatically during severe heatwaves, predicted to become many times more likely in coming decades
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Damian Carrington

guardian.co.uk, Sunday 13 January 2013 18.00 GMT

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Sprinklers water crops in Bakersfield, California, during a heatwave. Photograph: David McNew/Getty Images

The world’s food crisis, where 1 billion people are already going hungry and a further 2 billion people will be affected by 2050, is set to worsen as increasing heatwaves reverse the rising crop yields seen over the last 50 years, according to new research.

Severe heatwaves, such as those currently seen in Australia, are expected to become many times more likely in coming decades due to climate change. Extreme heat led to 2012 becoming the hottest year in the US on record and the worst corn crop in two decades.

New research, which used corn growing in France as an example, predicts losses of up to 12% for maize yields in the next 20 years. A second, longer-term study published on Sunday indicates that, without action against climate change, wheat and soybean harvests will fall by up to 30% by 2050 as the world warms.

“Our research rings alarm bells for future food security,” said Ed Hawkins, at the University of Reading, who worked on the corn study. “Over the last 50 years, developments in agriculture, such as fertilisers and irrigation, have increased yields of the world’s staple foods, but we’re starting to see a slowdown in yield increases.”

He said increasing frequency of hot days across the world could explain some of this slowdown. “Current advances in agriculture are too slow to offset the expected damage to crops from heat stress in the future,” said Prof Andy Challinor, at the University of Leeds. “Feeding a growing population as climate changes is a major challenge, especially since the land available for agricultural expansion is limited. Supplies of the major food crops could be at risk unless we plan for future climates.”

Hawkins, Challinor and colleagues examined how the number of days when the temperature rose above 32C affected the maize crop in France, which is the UK’s biggest source of imported corn. Yields had quadrupled between 1960 and 2000 but barely improved in the last decade, while the number of hot days more than doubled.

By the 2020s, hot days are expected to occur over large areas of France where previously they were uncommon and, unless farmers find ways to combat the heat stress that damages seed formation, yields of French maize could fall by 12% compared to today. Hawkins said there will be some differences with other crops in different locations, but added: “Extreme heat is not good for crops.”

The second study is the first global assessment of a range of climate change impacts, from increased flooding to rising demand for air conditioning, of how cutting carbon emissions could reduce these impacts, published in Nature Climate Change. “Our research clearly identifies the benefits of reducing greenhouse gas emissions – less severe impacts on crops and flooding are two areas of particular benefit,” said Prof Nigel Arnell of the University of Reading, who led the study, published in Nature Climate Change.

One example showed global productivity of spring wheat could drop by 20% by the 2050s, but such a drop in yields is delayed until 2100 if firm action is taken to cut greenhouse gas emissions.

River flooding was the impact which was most reduced if climate action is taken, the study found. Without action, even optimistic forecasts suggest the world will warm by 4C, which would expose about 330m people globally to greater flooding. But that number could be cut in half if emissions start to fall in the next few years. Flooding is the biggest climate threat to the UK, with over 8,000 homes submerged in 2012.

Another dramatic impact was on the need for air conditioning as temperatures rise. The energy needed for cooling is set to soar but could be cut by 30% if the world acts to curb emissions, with the benefit being particularly high in Europe. However, climate action has relatively little effect on water shortages, set to hit a billion people. Just 5% of those would avoid water problems if emissions fall.

“But cutting emissions buys you time for adaptation [to climate change’s impacts],” said Arnell. “You can buyfive to 10 years [delay in impacts] in the 2030s, and several decade from 2050s. It is quite an optimistic study as it shows that climate policies can have a big effect in reducing the impacts on people.”

Ed Davey, the UK’s secretary of state for energy and climate change, said: “We can avoid many of the worst impacts of climate change if we work hard together to keep global emissions down. This research helps us quantify the benefits of limiting temperature rise to 2C and underlines why it’s vital we stick with the UN climate change negotiations and secure a global legally binding deal by 2015.”

Gas That Triggers Ozone Destruction Revealed

Jan. 13, 2013 — Scientists at the Universities of York and Leeds have made a significant discovery about the cause of the destruction of ozone over oceans.
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They have established that the majority of ozone-depleting iodine oxide observed over the remote ocean comes from a previously unknown marine source.

The research team found that the principal source of iodine oxide can be explained by emissions of hypoiodous acid (HOI) – a gas not yet considered as being released from the ocean – along with a contribution from molecular iodine (I2).

Since the 1970s when methyl iodide (CH3I) was discovered as ubiquitous in the ocean, the presence of iodine in the atmosphere has been understood to arise mainly from emissions of organic compounds from phytoplankton — microscopic marine plants.

This new research, which is published in Nature Geoscience, builds on an earlier study which showed that reactive iodine, along with bromine, in the atmosphere is responsible for the destruction of vast amounts of ozone – around 50 per cent more than predicted by the world’s most advanced climate models – in the lower atmosphere over the tropical Atlantic Ocean.

The scientists quantified gaseous emissions of inorganic iodine following the reaction of iodide with ozone in a series of laboratory experiments. They showed that the reaction of iodide with ozone leads to the formation of both molecular iodine and hypoiodous acid. Using laboratory models, they show that the reaction of ozone with iodide on the sea surface could account for around 75 per cent of observed iodine oxide levels over the tropical Atlantic Ocean.

Professor Lucy Carpenter, of the Department of Chemistry at York, said: “Our laboratory and modelling studies show that these gases are produced from the reaction of atmospheric ozone with iodide on the sea surface interfacial layer, at a rate which is highly significant for the chemistry of the marine atmosphere.

“Our research reveals an important negative feedback for ozone – a sort of self-destruct mechanism. The more ozone there is, the more gaseous halogens are created which destroy it. The research also has implications for the way that radionucleides of iodine in seawater, released into the ocean mainly from nuclear reprocessing facilities, can be re-emitted into the atmosphere.”

Professor John Plane, from the University of Leeds’ School of Chemistry, said: “This mechanism of iodine release into the atmosphere appears to be particularly important over tropical oceans, where measurements show that there is more iodide in seawater available to react with ozone. The rate of the process also appears to be faster in warmer water. The negative feedback for ozone should therefore be particularly important for removing ozone in the outflows of pollution from major cities in the coastal tropics.”

The research was funded by the UK Natural Environment Research Council SOLAS (Surface Ocean Lower Atmosphere) programme.
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Inside the city’s ghost platforms

ANDREW CLENNELL and CARLEEN FROST
The Daily Telegraph
January 14, 201312:00AM
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Laura Tunks-Eccles 21, at Town Hall station. Picture: Tim Hunter Source: The Daily Telegraph

THEY’RE the ghost platforms of Sydney.

While Town Hall and Wynyard railway stations are jammed to capacity during peak hour, St James and Museum – a couple of hundred metres to the east – are underground deserts.

Should the government open up under-used City Circle train stations? Leave a comment below

As the state government attempts to cure the city’s congestion ills with light rail through the city, at peak hour – while commuters battle the human crush at Town Hall and Wynyard for services on the Western, Northern and North Shore lines – St James and Museum are barren, serving only the Bankstown and Airport lines.

Infrastructure NSW has argued a low-cost option to avoid city congestion would be to divert the Western line through St James and Museum. Currently, the Western line is at 90 per cent capacity.

INSW also recommended a bus tunnel under George St to free up the roads above, but it has lost that argument with the government.

Transport Minister Gladys Berejiklian is on track to introduce her light rail line from Central to Circular Quay and out to the SCG, Randwick Racecourse and UNSW in Kingsford. Ms Berejiklian is making sure the George St light rail leg cannot be scotched by starting work at Circular Quay and Kingsford at the same time, rather than building the eastern suburbs section first.

Infrastructure NSW is understood to be displeased Ms Berejiklian has not even investigated the prospect of opening up the under-used City Circle train stations.

Yesterday Ms Berejiklian’s spokesman said the minister was “looking at” the proposal.

In response to Infrastructure NSW’s 20-year strategy, the government said there was an “investigation into improving the usage of existing CBD rail assets like the City Circle … (as) part of the work being undertaken by the government in the context of the Sydney’s Rail Future plan”.

“The number of people using City Circle stations will definitely increase over the coming years as we run more trains from the East Hills and Bankstown lines, particularly after the South West Rail Link opens,” Ms Berejiklian’s spokesman said yesterday.

“The government has already committed to an upgrade of Museum station.”

At St James station in peak hour last week, there was no queue for the electronic ticket machine and just a handful of backpackers buying tickets from CityRail staff shortly before peak hour.

The convenience store St James Food Station was empty. Manager Mohammed Abdalla said the heritage-listed station was mainly used by tourists and workers from the nearby David Jones and Westfield.

At Town Hall, by contrast, commuters, tourists and day trippers stood shoulder-to-shoulder on every platform as hundreds of people flooded the station for the peak hour rush, with lines of up to 10 people at the electronic ticket machines.

Insurance worker Laura Tunks-Eccles said moving the Western line services would ease congestion and make her trip more enjoyable.

The 21-year-old uses the Inner West line to commute to her home in Petersham.

“It’s busy here all the time,” she said.

“Moving some of the services is a good idea.”

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Bushfires and heat a sign of climate change: Milne

Updated 1 hour 47 minutes ago

Photo: Christine Milne says governments need to do more to address climate change (AAP: Lukas Coch)

Map: TAS
The Greens leader Christine Milne says this summer’s bushfires and record temperatures are providing a glimpse of what Australia’s climate might look like in the future.

Australia has experienced one of its hottest starts to the year on record, and large bushfires are still burning in New South Wales and Tasmania.

The Tasmanian Senator says climate change is making extreme weather events more common and they should be a wake up call for the major parties.

“I am hoping that the heatwaves, the fires around Australia will be a wake up call for local government, state government, and the Coalition and Labor to abandon their support for expanded coal exports [and] their support for coal seam gas,” she said.

“We are on track for dangerous climate change. We are on track for a climate emergency.

“And you only have to look at what’s happening with the fires around the country and the extreme heatwaves around the country to see what impact climate change is already having.”

She says the Federal Government’s climate change response needs to go further.

Topics:climate-change, government-and-politics, disasters-and-accidents, tas

First posted 1 hour 51 minutes ago