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Cyclone Freda lashes Solomon Islands

ABCUpdated December 29, 2012, 10:08 pm

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Tropical Cyclone Freda has struck the Solomon Islands, bringing heavy rains and winds of up to 130 kilometres per hour.

Witnesses say roofs have been ripped off houses and trees have been flattened, while rising rivers caused flooding in some areas.

There are no reports of deaths or injuries.

Sajay Prakesh of the Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre in Fiji said although the cyclone was moving away, parts of the Solomon Islands were being hit by “very strong winds and heavy rain”.

“Cyclone Freda is now a category two cyclone and it is continuing to intensify,” he said.

“It will become category-three by midnight tonight, having very destructive winds.”

Coastal and low-lying areas are at risk of inundation and fishermen have been advised to stay away from the sea.

Matthew Bass from the Bureau of Meteorology in Brisbane says Freda is no longer expected to hit Vanuatu and New Caledonia in the coming days.

“At this stage it’s expected to maintain a reasonably southerly path and with that it isn’t directly expected to affect Vanuatu in the next couple of days,” he said.

“At this stage around New Year’s we’re expecting it to be quite far from New Caledonia, still to the north-east of the islands.”

Freda comes just weeks after Cyclone Evan killed at least five people in Samoa before destroying homes and stranding thousands of tourists in Fiji.

Queensland weather forecaster Peter Otto says the Freda is about 1,300 kilometres from the Australian coast.

“This cyclone is expected to stay way off the eastern Australian coast for the next several days and the only impact we can see in the near future is the possibility of waves increasing into the early part of next week, but that’s a long way off,” he said.

Meanwhile, the weather bureau says a cyclone off Western Australia is unlikely to reach the coast.

Category-one Cyclone Mitchell is about 600 kilometres north-north-west of Exmouth and is expected to move south over the next 48 hours.

It is likely to intensify to a category-two tonight, before weakening again tomorrow.

However, David Farr from the Bureau of Meteorology says Mitchell is not expected to cross the coast.

“On the current forecast track it won’t affect the north west coast of WA,” he said.
“There’s a slight risk of gales on the upper west coast if the system takes a track a bit more to the south-east from what we’re expecting. But it is only a slight risk.

More Serious Earthquakes Predicted in the Himalayas

Dec. 28, 2012 — A research team led by scientists from Nanyang Technological University (NTU) has discovered that massive earthquakes in the range of 8 to 8.5 magnitudes on the Richter scale have left clear ground scars in the central Himalayas.

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Earth & Climate
•Earthquakes
•Natural Disasters
•Tsunamis
•Geology
•Earth Science
•Weather

Reference
•New Madrid Seismic Zone
•North Anatolian Fault
•San Andreas Fault
•Richter magnitude scale

This ground-breaking discovery has huge implications for the area along the front of the Himalayan Mountains, given that the region has a population density similar to that of New York City.

NTU Professor Paul Tapponnier, who is recognised as a leading scientist in the field of neotectonics, said that the existence of such devastating quakes in the past means that quakes of the same magnitude could happen again in the region in future, especially in areas which have yet to have their surface broken by a temblor.

Published recently in Nature Geosciences, the study by NTU’s Earth Observatory of Singapore (EOS) in Singapore and colleagues in Nepal and France, showed that in 1255 and 1934, two great earthquakes ruptured the surface of the earth in the Himalayas. This runs contrary to what scientists have previously thought.

Massive earthquakes are not unknown in the Himalayas, as quakes in 1897, 1905, 1934 and 1950 all had magnitudes between 7.8 and 8.9, each causing tremendous damage. But they were previously thought not to have broken the earth’s surface — classified as blind quakes — which are much more difficult to track.

However, Prof Tapponnier said that by combining new high resolution imagery and state of the art dating techniques, they could show that the 1934 earthquake did indeed rupture the surface, breaking the ground over a length of more than 150 kilometres, essentially south of the part of the range that harbours Mt Everest.

This break formed along the main fault in Nepal that currently marks the boundary between the Indian and Asian tectonic plates — also known as the Main Frontal Thrust (MFT) fault.

Using radiocarbon dating of offset river sediments and collapsed hill-slope deposits, the research team managed to separate several episodes of tectonic movement on this major fault and pin the dates of the two quakes, about 7 centuries apart.

“The significance of this finding is that earthquakes of magnitude 8 to 8.5 may return at most twice per millennium on this stretch of the fault, which allows for a better assessment of the risk they pose to the surrounding communities,” said Prof Tapponnier.

Prof Tapponnier warns that the long interval between the two recently discovered earthquake ruptures does not mean people should be complacent, thinking that there is still time before the next major earthquake happens in the region.

“This does not imply that the next mega-earthquake in the Himalayas will occur many centuries from now because we still do not know enough about adjacent segments of the MFT Mega-thrust,” Prof Tapponier explains.

“But it does suggest that areas west or east of the 1934 Nepal ground rupture are now at greater risk of a major earthquake, since there are little or no records of when last earth shattering temblor happened in those two areas.”

The next step for Prof Tapponnier and his EOS scientists is to uncover the full extent of such fault ruptures, which will then allow them to build a more comprehensive model of earthquake hazard along the Himalayan front.

About the NTU’s Earth Observatory of Singapore (EOS)

EOS is a premier research institute at NTU, Singapore, which conducts fundamental research on earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, tsunami and climate change in and around Southeast Asia, towards safer and more sustainable societies.

Funded by the National Research Foundation’s Research Centres of Excellence programme, EOS and its field of research contributes greatly to NTU’s research strengths in Sustainability, which is one of the university’s Five Peaks of Excellence.

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‘Articulate morons’: MPs call for better public debate

Date December 29, 2012 Read later

Dan Harrison and David Wroe

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Bob Katter’s Christmas

Bob Katter talks about his ideal Christmas and what would make the best present.
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BOB KATTER has clocked up nearly 40 years as a parliamentarian but he can’t remember the standard of political debate being as low as it was in 2012.

Mr Katter, the Katter’s Australian Party leader, said 2012 had been a year of unprecedented vitriol, the result of ”a complete lack of ideology and a complete lack of intellectual content”.

”I can’t ever remember a year as bad as this,” he said. ”You’ve got a bunch of people who quite frankly are very articulate, but very articulate morons. I couldn’t have a lower opinion of both sides of the Parliament. There is not the slightest shred of thought process in there since Rudd was removed from the frontbench.”

Gift of the gab … Malcolm Turnbull tackles the big issues. Photo: Supplied

The Liberal frontbencher Malcolm Turnbull blamed a lazy media and spin-focused political class for an impoverished public debate.

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”It has never been easier to get away with telling lies. It has never been easier to get away with the glib one-liner,” Mr Turnbull said in an address at the Woodford Folk Festival. He called on any web entrepreneurs in the audience to start a fact-checking site to hold public figures to account.

Mr Turnbull savaged politicians who he said showed contempt for voters by speaking in short grabs and slogans.

”It is our job above all in politics to tackle the big issues and to explain them and have the honesty to say to people ‘there are no easy solutions here’.”

The acting Greens leader, Adam Bandt, accused Mr Turnbull of hypocrisy. ”The old parties pretend to hate the game, but they keep playing it and they actually love it. To Malcolm Turnbull I say that long-term thinking isn’t just for Christmas, it’s for the whole year.”

Mr Bandt agreed that the standard of political debate was ”low”. ”I give a press conference about a sovereign wealth fund or the country’s looming revenue crisis, only to be asked about text messages and escort services.”

Mr Bandt said the public craved a more substantial debate, which was taking place through social media and public meetings.

The independent MP Tony Windsor said he believed people wanted more detail about policy, but this tended not to sell. ”Peter Slipper and Craig Thomson beat David Gonski every time.”

Mr Windsor said the strident and personal tone of social media had influenced traditional media and the news cycle now operated at a furious pace.

”You’re expected to have a comment within half an hour of someone saying something.”

The Labor backbencher Andrew Leigh said technology had given people greater access to information but the media most people consumed was ”shallower, nastier and more opinionated than it was a decade ago”.

”Politicians who are good at soundbites have done very well out of the changes to media. Politicians who are interested in golden-thread, long-run reforms have a tougher time of it than we did a decade ago.”

The former Liberal leader John Hewson said he was worried that people no longer expected the truth from politicians. ”When it comes to the political debate, it’s been a real race to the bottom,” he said.

with Natalie Bochenski

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/articulate-morons-mps-call-for-better-public-debate-20121228-2bz9r.html#ixzz2GQTRt1yC

Greens seek millionaire tax to revive parent payments

Date December 29, 2012 66 reading now
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Jacob Saulwick

Transport Reporter

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On track … Adam Bandt, acting leader of the Greens, says the party’s “reasonable” tax propsal should get support from the government. Photo: Justin McManus

A ”millionaires tax” increase of 5¢ in the dollar would raise enough money to restore payments to single parents cut in this year’s budget.

The Greens’ policy, costed by federal Treasury, would generate at least $790 million over the next three years by lifting the top tax rate on income above $1 million from 45 per cent to 50 per cent.

The revenue boost could even be much higher, closer to $500 million a year, but Treasury has assumed some people on high incomes will not earn as much if their top tax rate is lifted.

The acting leader of the Greens, Adam Bandt, compared the money raised by the tax increase to a similar amount saved by the government when it cut payments to some single parents, which take effect from the start of next year.

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”I think this is a reasonable step that should get the support of the government,” Mr Bandt said.

”What possible justification could Labor have for hurting single parents and yet not touching millionaires? The Treasurer said he’s been listening to Bruce Springsteen but he must’ve been listening to the records backwards,” the Greens MP said of Wayne Swan’s vaunted affection for the US rocker.

It was the second Greens policy to be costed by Treasury’s Parliamentary Budget Office, established by the Gillard government as a price of securing the Greens’ support in Parliament, and the party plans to release at least two dozen more by the time of the next election.

The tax increase would bring the top marginal tax rate to a level it last sat at in 1987, but would affect only about 8000 people listed by the Australian Taxation Office as recording annual incomes above $1 million.

The expected revenue would double from about $800 million to $1.6 billion in the next four years if Treasury dropped its assumption of ”tax income elasticity”, which says that growth in tax revenue will fall if tax rates are lifted.

The Greens are framing the policy in the context of cuts that kick in next week for single parents. From January 1, single parents on the parenting payment with a youngest child over the age of eight will be moved onto the lower newstart allowance, costing them about $60 a week.

The measure will save the government about $700 million in the next four years, but it has been criticised by the welfare sector and by some backbench Labor MPs.

The Gillard government argues the benefit of the measure is in encouraging parents back into the workforce.

Mr Bandt said: ”If the government is wanting to improve the budget position by somewhere around $300 million a year it has a choice. It could either increase taxes on the wealthiest Australians or it could hurt single parents.”

In the 1950s, Australia’s top marginal tax rate sat at 75 per cent. It was above 65 per cent for most of the 1960s, and was above 60 per cent for most of the 1970s and 1980s. It now sits at 45 per cent, for any money earned about $180,000 a year.

The first Greens policy costed by the Parliamentary Budget Office was a revised mining tax that showed the government could raise an extra $26 billion in the next four year if it reversed concessions to the mining industry.

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Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/greens-seek-millionaire-tax-to-revive-parent-payments-20121228-2bz5x.html#ixzz2GOdKfAUq

4 Extreme Weather Events That Led To Extreme Costs In 2012

by Judy Molland
December 28, 2012
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First, the good news: for 2012, the number of extreme weather events costing more than a billion dollars was eleven, down from 2011, when there were fourteen such disasters, according to figures released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) last week.

Now, the bad news: while the number of such disasters is down, the economic costs for 2012 are expected to exceed last year’s tab of $60 billion; this is mostly as a result of Superstorm Sandy, which may cost $100 billion, and this year’s extreme drought, which could be even more expensive. In addition to these two, the billion-dollar climate disasters include seven severe thunderstorm outbreaks, two hurricanes, droughts and wildfires.

And even more bad news: the tab for 2012 will most likely rank as the second most expensive year for extreme weather disasters since 1980. Top prize goes to 2005, the year when Katrina and three other hurricanes hit the Gulf Coast.

Worldwide, the estimated cost for this year’s natural disasters is at least $140 billion, according to a report by the Swiss Re insurance group, but it was the US that sustained the most expensive losses. In fact, the top five losses were all in the US. Also in 2012, more than 11,000 people died because of these extreme events.

By comparison, in 2011 total losses worldwide from natural disasters were around $350 billion, largely due to the earthquake and tsunami in Japan.

Studies have indicated that global warming increases the likelihood of extreme heat waves, wildfires and extreme precipitation, but the Guardian adds a cautionary note:

Jake Crouch, a climatologist at NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), said it is difficult to make direct connections between climate change and the economic losses from extreme events seen this year, or in other years.

“Climate change is having a role in these events but how much of a role is hard to tell at this time,” Crouch said. Many other factors, including socioeconomic trends such as a rising population that is exposing more people and infrastructure to extreme weather events, are helping to drive disaster loss trends.

Here’s a reminder of four of these billion-dollar events in the US, in chronological order:

USDAgov/flickr

1. Wildfires

The 2012 U.S. fire season was the 3rd worst in U.S. history, with 9.2 million acres burned. The Waldo Canyon fire that erupted in Colorado at the end of June is considered the most destructive wildfire in the history of the state, and overall more than 3.6 million acres burned in the US during August—the most on record for any August in recorded history. It wasn’t just Colorado that suffered: New Mexico had its largest fire in state history, while Oregon had its most widepread fire since the 1860s.

michaelrigi/flickr

2. Drought

The total cost of this year’s Great Drought is not yet finalized, but experts believe this may turn out to be the costliest weather event of 2012. The area affected by the drought in the contiguous US peaked at 61.8 percent in July, making it the largest since the Dust Bowl drought of December 1939. Crop damages alone are estimated to be $35 billion.

Official U.S. Navy Imagery/flickr

3. Hurricane Isaac

Remember Isaac? That was the hurricane that made landfall near the mouth of the Mississippi River on August 28 as a Category 1 Hurricane with 80 mph winds, but thankfully New Orleans’ newly upgraded levee stood strong. However, as the hurricane moved on, it encountered levees that had not been upgraded, resulting in $2 billion in damage (and a delay to the start of the Republican Convention in Tampa).

ccho/flickr

4. Superstorm Sandy
No hurricane on record has been larger than this monster, which made landfall near Atlantic City, New Jersey on October 29, with sustained winds of 80 mph. Its storm-force winds attacked 943 miles of the US coast, and brought torrential rain as well as snow and blizzard conditions in six states from North Carolina to Pennsylvania. Over 130 people lost their lives, and the damage may well be over $100 billion.

Related Care2 Coverage

Scientists Confirm Climate Change, Extreme Weather, Linked

Are We To Blame For The Colorado Wildfire?

Superstorm Sandy Leaves a Path of Devastation (And A Surprise)

Read more:climate change, extreme weather, Great Drought of 2012, Hurricane Isaac, natural disasters, Superstorm Sandy, wildfires

Read more: http://www.care2.com/causes/4-extreme-weather-events-that-led-to-extreme-costs-in-2012.html#ixzz2GOOmn4Eu

Plan to mine gas under homes

Date December 29, 2012 28 reading now
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Ben Cubby

Environment Editor

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Distrust … Jacqui Kirkby, from Scenic Hills Association, says residents are becoming more frustrated as AGL remains tight-lipped over its coal seam gas plans. Photo: Edwina Pickles

LARGE-SCALE coal seam gas drilling would take place directly under suburban streets and backyards in Sydney under a proposal being assessed by the state’s planning and infrastructure department.

But the gas company AGL has ruled out using the controversial fracking technique at its proposed 66-well gasfield between Liverpool and Campbelltown.

About 10,000 homes in the affected area, covering suburbs such as Currans Hill, Varroville, Kearns, Eschol Park and Denham Court, have been notified of the company’s plans by newsletters.

AGL said there would be no impact at the surface, even for houses directly above the path of a drill.

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”It is possible that horizontal drilling could take place under houses. However it is worth noting that as per the community update provided by AGL, horizontal wells do not cause any impact on surface infrastructure above,” a spokeswoman said.

The proposal before the planning agency is for up to 66 wells at 11 sites. While the surface well heads are mostly between 300 and 400 metres from homes, the plan calls for underground drilling of up to 2.5 kilometres from the surface site, a radius that includes thousands of homes.

The technique involves drilling a well about 700 metres down, then guiding the drill horizontally under the earth to reach sources of underground coal seam gas and create a path for it to be brought to the surface.

But some residents believe not enough is known about methane leaks that appear to be caused by large-scale gas drilling.

They fear that by sucking water and gas up from underground, some gas will find other ways up to the surface, and could end up leaking through fissures in the ground and emerging in suburbs.

”We’re concerned with what we’re seeing in Tara in Queensland,” said Jacqui Kirkby, of the Scenic Hills Association, which opposes coal seam gas drilling in the district.

”Once you de-water a coal seam, the gas can find its way up to the surface and goes wherever it can.”

At the Tara gasfield on the Western Downs, high levels of methane, carbon dioxide and other compounds have been detected at distances of several kilometres from drilling sites.

Ms Kirkby said people she had spoken to in western Sydney generally did not trust AGL’s assurances that the drilling techniques were completely safe.

”I think it’s just that natural tendency for Australians to take things with a grain of salt,” she said. ”AGL won’t ever talk about the potential downsides of what they’re trying to do, so people tend not to believe them.”

The company said it had been transparent with residents about its drilling plans, and invited people to make submissions about the proposal, which is on public display at the NSW planning website until February 8.

”Horizontal wells do not cause any impact on surface infrastructure,” a spokeswoman told Fairfax Media.

”Drilling horizontally into the coal seam creates a path that allows the gas to travel back to the surface. This technique stimulates the flow of gas, meaning that other stimulation techniques like hydraulic fracturing will not be used in the northern expansion area.”

Fracking, or hydraulic fracturing, involves pumping a mix of water, sand and chemicals down a well at high pressure, to force gas to the surface. The technique has been used at some other AGL wells.

NSW Health is expected to make a submission to the planning agency to outline its view on the possible health effects of gas drilling in populated areas.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/conservation/plan-to-mine-gas-under-homes-20121228-2bz9w.html#ixzz2GOLZ8eWG