NOAA raises hurricane season prediction despite expected El Niño

This year’s Atlantic hurricane season got off to a busy start, with 6 named storms to date, and may have a busy second half, according to the updated hurricane season outlook issued Aug. 9, 2012 by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. The updated outlook still indicates a 50 percent chance of a near-normal season, but increases the chance of an above-normal season to 35 percent and decreases the chance of a below-normal season to only 15 percent from the initial outlook issued in May.

An unusually strong storm formed off the coast of Alaska on August 5 and tracked into the center of the Arctic Ocean, where it slowly dissipated over the next several days. Arctic storms such as this one can have a large impact on the sea ice, causing it to melt rapidly through many mechanisms, such as tearing off large swaths of ice and pushing them to warmer sites, churning the ice and making it slushier, or lifting warmer waters from the depths of the Arctic Ocean.

NASA’s Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel, or HS3, mission will be a complex one for the pilots flying NASA’s Global Hawk aircraft from the ground. The mission, set to begin this month, will be the first deployment for the unmanned aircraft away from their regular base of operations at the Dryden Flight Research Center on Edwards Air Force Base, Calif. In addition the pilots will be operating the aircraft from two locations on opposite coasts.