Neville,
I recommend you read the enclosed reports.
Regarding your specific comments:
1. The oceans continue to warm, as in figure 3 in Steffen’s report but warming is not homogeneous, i.e. Greenland and Antarctic ice melt results in regions of cold ice melt water. Salinity increases not only due to ocean warming but also consequent on ocean currents from warm regions reaching colder high latitudes. I am not clear therefore on what basis you write “Cyclones could feasibly reduce in frequency since the oceans may be less warm?”
2. Warming of ocean water decreases their capacity to sequester CO2.
Among other Steffen’s report states:
Ocean temperature
Although there is a very strong focus on air and sea
surface temperature in both the climate research
community and the general public, ocean temperature
is a better measure of changes in the climate system.
–
More tha n 85% of the
additi onal heat due to the
ener gy imbala nce at the
Earth ’s surface is absorbed
by the ocea n (IPCC 2007a).
–
Since the 1960s measurements of the heat content of the
upper 700 m of the ocean have been available, and since
2004, measurements to lower depths (up to 2 km) have
become widely available with the deployment of Argo
floats (Gould and the Argo Science Team 2004).
Figure 3 shows the record of ocean thermal expansion
from 1950 through 2008, showing the clear long-term
trend of warming (Domingues et al. 2008, and updates).
The Domingues et al. updated curve in this figure, which
uses the carefully checked and corrected Argo data of
Barker et al. (2011), indicates that multi-decadal warming
has continued to the end of the record in December 2008
(Church et al. 2011). This record is quantitatively
consistent with the observed rate of sea-level rise over
the past half-century. Although most of the additional
heat stored in the ocean is found in the upper 700 m,
recent observations show that warming of the deeper
ocean waters in both the Southern and Atlantic Oceans
is now occurring (Purkey and Johnson 2010)
From: Neville Gillmore [mailto:nevilleg729@gmail.com]
Sent: Thursday, March 08, 2012 1:18 PM
To: Andrew Glikson
Subject: Ocean warming, salinity and frequency of cyclones.
Andrew.
Since our oceans need be warm for cyclones to form, and we are seeing
scientific reports on Ocean Salinity increase. Cyclones could feasibly
reduce in frequency since the oceans may be less warm?
Will the carbon dioxide currently absorbed by our oceans decrease,
leaving more carbon pollution in the atmosphere?
Regards
Neville Gillmore
EXTRACT
In order for a cyclone to form, the ocean waters need to be warm, at least 26°C. Above the warm ocean, water evaporates and form clouds. If there is low air pressure where the clouds are formed, it pulls them in and they begin to rotate. It is the Earth’s rotation and spinning on its axis that causes the cyclone’s clouds to rotate. Clouds will continue to form and begin spinning more.
STEFFEN_THE CRITICAL DECADE 2011.pdf 7935K View Download |
THE SCIENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE_2009.pdf 2573K View Download |