West scared of Middle East nuclear domino effect
North Korea is dangerous, but isolated. An Iran with nuclear weapons, says one senior Bush administration official, would be a "game-changer", according to The Economist (21/10/2006, p.64).
Iran role as Middle East player crucial: The virulence of the regime’s revolutionary ardour, its role as "central banker of terrorism" to organisations like Hamas and Hizbullah that preach and practise violence against Israel, and its ambition for dominance in the region and the Islamic world, all make it imperative, from the West’s viewpoint, to stop Iran before it gets a bomb.
Nuke domino effect potential among regional powers: The sight of nuclear-armed Shia Iran would probably encourage Sunni regimes in Saudi Arabia, Egypt and elsewhere to want their own finger on a nuclear trigger.
Major powers press Iran: Reason enough for the Europeans, Americans, Russians and Chinese to press Iran to come clean sooner rather than later about its nuclear past and halt its dubious uranium and plutonium activities?
Alternative energy plan on offer: Indeed, all have backed a package of incentives that include helping Iran to benefit from peaceful nuclear energy-a big policy shift for the Bush administration, which has also said it would join negotiations with Iran.
Iran shrugs off limp sanctions: But Iran’s answer is a raspberry. Despite that, the first sanctions to emerge from the discussion now getting under way at the Security Council will be feeble.
Russian interests in Iran: Russia wants to exclude its Bushehr nuclear reactor project in Iran (though it has repeatedly delayed providing the start-up fuel); it also sells Iran lots of weapons. The country is an important neighbour, and offers Russia one of few ways back into Middle East diplomacy.
Sanctions may increase: In any case, Russia points out, Europeans and others trade with Iran too. Sanctions are supposed to become steadily tougher if Iran carries on enriching. By moving slowly, the Europeans, Americans, Russians and Chinese have managed to stay in step.
Iran intent on long haul: But Iran, perched on a cushion of high oil revenues, is betting on staring them out, all the while perfecting its enriching skills.
Rules changing? It helps Iran that, just as the world gears up to enforce the anti-nuclear rules, the rules may be changing. Iranian officials point to India, a country that built nuclear weapons outside the NPT, and yet is now accepted by America, which recognises it as a "de facto" nuclear power (and is attempting to rewrite the rules accordingly), in hopes of making it a "strategic partner" in Asia.
Double standards? If India can have any technology it wants, Iran asks, why not us?