Category: Energy Matters

  • Peak Oil: It’s Dead — Again?

    Peak Oil: It’s Dead — Again?

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    I’m confused.

    “The IEA says Peak Oil is Dead. That’s Bad News for Climate Policy,” blares a Time magazine headline.

    But there’s just one problem.

    The International Energy Agency (IEA) has said no such thing.

    “New oil sources, many of them unlocked by new technology—the Canadian oil sands, tight oil in North Dakota and Texas, ultra-deep water oil in the Atlantic—has helped keep the supply of oil growing, even as greater efficiency measures and other social shifts have helped blunt demand in rich countries like the U.S. Oil isn’t likely to be cheap—a barrel of Brent crude is $102 – and getting it out of the ground isn’t going to get any easier. But it’s increasingly likely that we will have more than enough oil in the future to keep the global economy growing and stave off any Mel Gibson-esque apocalypses,” says Time magazine.

    “Indeed, a new assessment released yesterday by the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that the surge of supply from North America—most of it from new unconventional sources—will transform the global supply of oil and help ease tight markets. Between now and 2018, the IEA projects that global oil production capacity will grow by 8.4 million barrels a day—significantly faster than demand. Oil isn’t likely to peak any time soon.”

    The only thing this article does well is confuse what peak oil really is.

    As we’ve reported, peak oil refers to the flow rates. It refers to the fact that the “easy to get to” oil is gone. It’s the “hard to reach” expensive oil that we now have to go after. Hydraulic fracturing – like I said – is more expensive than traditional drilling techniques.

    Even my old friend – and former colleague, Chris Nelder will tell you this.

    There has always been a lot of confusion about this point. Peak oil was never about “running out of oil.” The only people who characterized it that way either didn’t know what they were talking about or were trying to confuse the issue. Peak oil has always referred to the production rate of oil — it’s about finding the point where that production rate peaks.

    It’d be nice if Time actually checked its facts before running with these bogus stories hell-bent on confusing reality.

    While Time magazine circulates inaccuracies, we’ve been profiting from peak oil.

     by
  • Almost 100% New Electricity To Be From Solar In California In 2nd Half Of 2013

    Almost 100% New Electricity To Be From Solar In California In 2nd Half Of 2013

    Posted: 25 May 2013 08:04 AM PDT

    Reposting this big news from Solar Love:

    Herman Trabish of Greentech Media has happened across a pretty interesting find — 97% of new electricity generation capacity in line to be added to the California grid in the second half (2H) of 2012 is from solar power projects.

    This is according to the California Independent System Operator (the ISO), as published in the 2012 Annual Report on Market Issues and Performance. In total, 1,633 megawatts of generation capacity are in line to be added to the grid in 2H 2013. A whopping 1,581 megawatts (MW) are from solar projects. 52 MW are from biomass projects.

    That’s a big shift from the first half of the year (and, well, all of previous history). Herman writes: “By the end of the first half of the year, the ISO will have added 3,391 megawatts of nameplate capacity, of which 2,296 megawatts will be natural gas, 565 megawatts will be wind and 530 megawatts will be solar.” Here’s a chart for a visual display of these points and the situation in 2012:

    Image Credit: California ISO

    Image Credit: California ISO

    Herman spent a lot of time discussing various factors related to natural gas in his post (I’d recommend checking it out). A few key points I’d pull out of it are as follows (images added):

    new natural gas california

    estimated revenue natural gas

    natural gas california

    1. Natural gas prices seem to have gotten too low to warrant investment in new natural gas projects. From the report: “The 2012 net revenue estimates for hypothetical combined-cycle and combustion-turbine units continued to fall substantially below the estimates of the annualized fixed costs for these technologies. For a new combined-cycle unit, net operating revenues earned from the markets in 2012 are estimated to be about $38 per kilowatt-year in Southern California, compared to potential annualized fixed costs of $176 per kilowatt-year.” (See 3 charts above.)
    2. More periods like 2H 2013 to come — this is the future. V. John White, executive director of the Center for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Technologies (CEERT), stated: “This is the shape of things to come.” Naturally, with solar hitting grid parity in parts of California, and combined with renewable energy targets, solar is set to keep growing at a fast clip.
    3. Clearly, there needs to be a little more balance than in 2H 2013. Technically, that could be achieved with a broad mix of renewables, demand response solutions, energy efficiency, energy storage, and/or natural gas technologies of the right kind. “What we want is a diverse renewables portfolio that includes solar PV, wind, geothermal and CSP with storage,” White said. “As time goes on, we need to smooth this out and include demand response, energy efficiency, storage, and even out-of-state resources.”
    4. Old natural gas technology not a good fit. Older/conventional natural gas plants take about 90 minutes to ramp up, which is not a good match for renewables. Furthermore, to warrant their cost, they have to run at 40% capacity, but they can’t compete with renewables on a merit order system. And as solar cuts off peak demand and cuts into peak pricing, the situation will get even more difficult.

    I think the overall trend is pretty clear. Solar power is growing fast, and it will continue growing at a strong pace. Beyond that, the specifics of California’s future grid are not entirely clear.

    Solar still needs a lot of support to reach its potential, especially rooftop solar. And making sure that what fills in around solar as it grows is also clean and renewable is a complementary challenge on which we need to put a strong focus.

    The whole California ISO report looks like it’s worth a read, but at 231 pages, it could take several hours (or even days) to go through it all. For now, here are a handful of interesting charts and graphs I’ve pulled out of it:

    utility demand response programs california

    demand response programs by hourdemand response programs by monthcalifornia electricity generation

    california electricity sources

    renewable energy generation california

    renewable energy split california

    hydropower california

    Thoughts?

    Almost 100% New Electricity To Be From Solar In California In 2nd Half Of 2013 was originally posted on: PlanetSave. To read more from Planetsave, join thousands of others and subscribe to our free RSS feed, follow us on Facebook (also free), follow us on Twitter, or just visit our homepage.

    Bicycling Cat — MJ (VIDEOS)

    Posted: 25 May 2013 04:07 AM PDT

    Here’s some weekend fun for you, reposted from bike-loving site Bikocity:

    As you’ll see in the videos below, MJ the cat is now a famous Philadelphia cat thanks to his bike courier owner Rudi Saldia. Rudi gave the 1-year-old cat a ride up and down the street, which MJ seemed to like. So they went further and further. Being his only time outside (plus, you know, the wonders of biking), MJ apparently loves the rides. In some of the clips in the videos below, you can see MJ nuzzle up to Rudi and lick him repeatedly… presumably as a big thanks.

    Rudi, who says he first filmed the rides in order to prove to his mom that the cat really rode the bike with him, has gotten a bit out of it as well. Aside from over 1 million views on YouTube, he (and MJ) landed in a TV commercial for GoPro cameras, the company from which Rudi got the helmet cam that films all the magic.

    Anyway, enough rambling, here are four videos from Rudi, one from the Associated Press, and one from GoPro cameras:

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Bicycling Cat — MJ (VIDEOS) was originally posted on: PlanetSave. To read more from Planetsave, join thousands of others and subscribe to our free RSS feed, follow us on Facebook (also free), follow us on Twitter, or just visit our homepage.

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  • 4BC picks up Greens concerns on coal dust

    IMG_1207Geoff Ebbs, Greens candidate for Griffith in inner-city Brisbane, appeared on 4BC yesterday discussing the economic madness of expending the national budget on coal infrastructure when the rest of the world is phasing out coal.

    The piece opens with John Gordon of Stop Brisbane’s Coal Trains discussing the huge volume of coal traffic through the suburbs of Brisbane.

    4BC – Coal Trains

  • Integrating science and policy to address the impacts of air pollution

    Integrating science and policy to address the impacts of air pollution

    Posted: 29 Nov 2012 11:32 AM PST

    New research examines how science and policy address air pollution effects on human health and ecosystems, and climate change in Europe.

  • Emissions from Coal Seam Gas’ By Dr Isaac Santos and Dr Damien Maher, Centre for Coastal Biogeochemistry Research, Southern Cross University

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    SCU releases first independent methane observations in Australian CSG fields – 15/11/2012

    Isaac Santos and Damien Maher Submission ‘Fugitive Emissions from Coal Seam Gas’ By Dr Isaac Santos and Dr Damien Maher, Centre for Coastal Biogeochemistry Research, Southern Cross University

    Preliminary research conducted by Southern Cross University shows methane concentrations collected around the Tara gas fields in Southern Queensland are significantly higher than surrounding areas where there is no coal seam gas infrastructure.

    Dr Isaac Santos and Dr Damien Maher from the University�s Centre for Coastal Biogeochemistry Research in the School of Environment, Science and Engineering presented their research at a public lecture in Lismore last night (November 14).

    Southern Cross University today rejected claims the research was premature or lacking in scientific rigour as claimed by industry group, Australian Petroleum Production & Exploration Association Ltd.

    The University has world leading expertise in the field of geochemistry, achieving the highest rating of 5 �well above world standard� in this field in the Excellence in Research for Australia 2010 report.

    Dr Santos said their scientific results were currently being peer reviewed by an international scientific journal.

    �Despite commercial production starting in the mid-1990s, this is the first publicly available data on concentrations of methane in the atmosphere of Australian CSG production areas.

    �We used cutting edge technology to make the measurements. Our work highlights the need for further research to adequately quantify the emissions and their source,� Dr Santos said.

    Dr Santos and Dr Maher produced the first independent maps of atmospheric methane concentrations in CSG production fields in Australia in an effort to determine whether gases may be leaking from CSG infrastructure.

    Methane is the dominant gas in CSG.

    The scientists surveyed methane concentrations in air and water samples in two areas: the CSG mining fields around Tara in Southern Queensland, and CSG exploration activity in the Richmond River catchment around Lismore in Northern New South Wales.

    Typically background concentrations of methane in the atmosphere are approximately 1.8 parts per million.

    But Dr Maher said concentrations of methane were much higher in the atmosphere and waterways around Tara than in the Lismore area.

    �In Tara the concentrations are consistently higher than two parts per million and approach seven parts per million in a few locations. This is about three and a half times higher than expected if there was no change in the atmosphere.

    �These results are higher than values reported for conventional gas production fields in Siberia, one of the world�s largest natural gas production areas,� said Dr Maher.

    Dr Santos said there were two explanations for the increases: fugitive emissions caused by methane escaping from CSG activities or natural seepage.

    �Any geological area that has gas deposits is going to have natural seeps. At this stage we are unable to separate the contribution of CSG activities from natural seeps because no sampling was done in Tara prior to mining.

    �Our research highlights the need for sampling and baseline studies to be established before changing the environment. These baseline studies are the best and perhaps the only way to fully assess change potentially brought about by any industry,� said Dr Santos.

    Dr Maher said while CSG may have been promoted as a clean energy source, no independent studies had quantified the whole gas field methane output from Australian CSG fields.

    �This is clearly the next step. Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas, at least 25 times more powerful than carbon dioxide. Given fugitive emissions are not directly measured at this stage, follow-up quantitative research could potentially change carbon tax estimates for the CSG industry.�

    Currently CSG fugitive emissions estimates have not been assessed by independent organisations.

    �Typically in Australia we assume a figure of 0.12 per cent leakage at the wellhead of total gas production but we don�t have any data backing up that assumption. Some studies overseas indicate that lifecycle fugitive emissions may be up to eight per cent,� Dr Maher said.

    �While the figure of eight per cent has come under fire by some academics and the CSG industry, the lack of baseline data makes it extremely difficult to put an exact number on mining-specific emissions after mining has commenced. We don�t know what fugitive emissions are coming from Australian CSG mining.

    �We need to do site specific experiments to quantify those emissions for every gas field.�

    Dr Santos said industry currently had a �fire detector� approach to methane.

    �A �fire detector� approach to methane regulation means methane is treated as an explosive hazard only. Concentrations have to reach explosive levels to be considered a problem.

    �Our results indicate that we should adopt more of a �smoke detector� approach in which methane is treated as a powerful greenhouse gas. By using this approach minor leaks over a large area should be accounted for.�

    SCU�s Centre for Coastal Biogeochemistry Research
    The research by Dr Santos and Dr Maher builds on Southern Cross University�s strengths in the field of geochemistry. In 2010, SCU was given the highest rank of 5 �well above world standard� in the Excellence in Research for Australia (ERA) 2010 report. SCU�s ERA rank in the field of geochemistry is matched by only other two universities in Australia.

    BIOS
    Dr Isaac Santos is a world leader in groundwater research and the Deputy Director of the Centre for Coastal Biogeochemistry at SCU. Dr Santos has 50 scientific peer reviewed publications, many of which focus on the hydrology and chemistry of the Richmond River. In 2011 Santos was given an award from the Coastal and Estuarine Research Federation, the largest global federation of coastal scientists for his research on groundwater.

    Dr Damien Maher is an expert in carbon dioxide cycling in the environment. He has published the first scientific papers estimating carbon dioxide fluxes in Australian estuaries. Dr Maher has recently developed a rapid approach to perform high precision methane measurements in air and water.

    Photo: Dr Isaac Santos and Dr Damien Maher with the University�s portable methane analyser.

    Media contact: Sharlene King, media officer, Southern Cross University Lismore, 02 6620 3508 or 0429 661 349.


    For further information, please contact:

    Communications and Publications
    Southern Cross University
    PO Box 157 � Lismore NSW 2480 � Australia

    T +61 2 6659 3006 or +61 2 6620 3144 � e scumedia@scu.edu.auw www.scu.edu.au/scunews

  • The relationship between depth, age and gravity in the oceans

    www.depts.ttu.edu/gesc/Fac_pages/Yoshinobu/5362-Tectonics-Web/pdfs 2012 Tectonics/Crosby et al., 2006 reeval of age-depth seafloor.pdfwww.depts.ttu.edu/gesc/Fac_pages/Yoshinobu/5362-Tectonics-Web/pdfs%202012%20Tectonics/Crosby%20et%20al.,%202006%20reeval%20of%20age-depth%20seafloor.pdf

    The relationship between depth, age and gravity in the oceans. A. G. Crosby,1 D. McKenzie1 and J. G. Sclater2. 1Bullard Laboratories of the Department of