Australia 2050 is a future we can’t afford
Australia 2050 is a future we can’t afford
PAUL BIBBY
February 6, 2010
EXCLUSIVE
AUSTRALIANS must prepare for a fundamental shift in the way we live because the country cannot afford to cope with 36 million people.
Economic modelling produced for the Herald by PricewaterhouseCoopers shows the task of building the new roads, houses, schools, supermarkets and recreation facilities needed by 2050 will be so great that the nation’s current pool of savings will struggle to cover it, even with the help of foreign capital.
As a consequence Australians will have to make major lifestyle changes.
These range from dramatic increases in housing density and an end to our reliance on the car, to the creation of self-sustaining urban communities capable of generating their own energy to avoid the need for new power stations.
Planning experts say we must also consider whether population increases will be accommodated in larger regional centres rather than allowing cities such as Sydney to grow.
”The bottom line is ‘prepare for change’,” the PWC economics and policy team leader, Jeremy Thorpe, said.
”The task of providing this infrastructure is a very significant one and at the moment we don’t have the savings to cover it. Governments have to make a decision about what trade-offs they want to make to maintain a standard of living.”
Europe is not heading for a population collapse.
Europe is not heading for a population collapse
There may be a slow decline in the number of people, but it should be welcome
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- The Guardian, Friday 5 February 2010
- Article history
Fred Pearce vividly portrays population collapse in the town of Hoyerswerda in eastern Germany and links it with a likely future for Europe: “Europe’s population is, right now, peaking, after more than six centuries of continuous growth. With each generation reproducing only half its number, this looks like the start of a continent-wide collapse in numbers. Some predict wipeout by 2100” (Lonely planet, G2, 1 February).
As a demographer specialising in fertility and population trends in Europe I find it unsettling that so much attention is paid to overblown claims of the continent’s population demise. Yes, Europe as a whole is projected to experience a gradual decline of its population, from 732 million now to 691 million in 2050 according to the United Nations. But, although further decline after 2050 will most probably follow, this gets nowhere close to a collapse.
Populate and we will perish
Populate and we will perish
- From: The Australian
- February 02, 2010
NOW that Kevin Rudd has informed us that he favours a “big Australia” with a population reaching 35 million by 2050, will he also tell us what happens then? Do we continue to pursue policies that will further double our population by 2100, causing us to cease immigration altogether and then apply the Chinese solution: one child per family? And if the population is to increase to 35 million, what’s the rush to get there so quickly?
Thanks to the ABC, Kerry O’Brien and The 7.30 Report, which devoted most of last week to showcasing the question of population growth, it appears that at last we are going to have the public debate some of us have been seeking for years.
I once asked in question time whether the prime minister was aware that immigration levels were causing concern because of the pressure they exert on “education, health and social services, housing and land prices and the consequent diminution in the quality of life that overcrowded cities have on our environment”. I asked for a white paper on immigration to evaluate the costs and benefits of continued large-scale immigration. That was on June 10, 1970, and John Gorton’s answer indicated he was none too pleased with my question. Neither was Labor’s immigration spokesman Fred Daly. Having written and spoken about the issue for 40 years, I’m delighted a serious debate is about to begin.
Opposition seeks migration rethink
Opposition seeks migration rethink STEPHANIE PEATLING January 24, 2010 AUSTRALIA should consider whether immigration levels can continue to remain at existing levels as part of a comprehensive population policy to determine how many people the country can support, the federal Opposition says. Infrastructure, housing and environmental sustainability should be considered when setting the numbers Continue Reading →
PM warns of ageing population time bomb
PM warns of ageing population time bomb
DAN HARRISON
January 20, 2010
Australia must dramatically raise productivity if it to meet the challenges of an ageing population, the Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd, said last night.
Speaking in Melbourne on the first day of a national tour in the lead-up to Australia Day, Mr Rudd said by 2050, there would be only 2.7 working-age Australians for every one aged 65 or more. There are now about five working-age Australians for each citizen over 65. Four decades ago there were 7.5.
The grim predictions come from the third intergenerational report, to be released by the Treasurer, Wayne Swan, in coming weeks. The report predicts the proportion of the population aged 65 and over will jump from about 14 per cent now to about 23 per cent by 2050.
Sydney, Melbourne can’t handle growth targets
- From: The Australian
- December 30, 2009
AUSTRALIA’S biggest cities, Sydney and Melbourne, will be too dysfunctional by 2050 to reach projected populations of seven million unless their rail systems are quickly and radically overhauled.
AUSTRALIA’S biggest cities, Sydney and Melbourne, will be too dysfunctional by 2050 to reach projected populations of seven million unless their rail systems are quickly and radically overhauled.
Urban rail is the bedrock of metropolises of the world, sustainable planning expert Peter Newman says, but Australia’s capital cities need a $4.6 billion capital injection just to bring them up to date, and at least that much again to cope with the expected doubling of numbers in some cities.