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Managing director of Ebono Institute and major sponsor of The Generator, Geoff Ebbs, is running against Kevin Rudd in the seat of Griffith at the next Federal election. By the expression on their faces in this candid shot it looks like a pretty dull campaign. Read on

  • Annie Sloan Chalk Paint

    anniesloan2527schalkpaint-1000blogWoolloongabba Antique Centre is proud to be the first ever Australian stockist of the wonderful Annie Sloan decorative range of chalk paint and soft waxes.

    This celebrated English paint range is made specifically for painting furniture, floors and walls giving them that completely matt velvety finish.

    This paint has some unique qualities including a one coat application not requiring an under or primer coat. This reflects an ease of use that restoration enthusiasts will find invaluable in their paint and décor projects.

    The full paint range, test pots, waxes, application brushes and instruction pamphlet are in-store now. Regular application workshops available.

    Visit the website

  • Number one reason for business failure

    Matthew Snelleksz
    Matthew Snelleksz fixes broken businesses with simple blunt advice

    Strategic business advisor and CPA, Matthew Snelleksz, has revealed his analysis of why businesses fail.

    Worells Insolvency and Forensic Accountants Conference on the Gold Coast identified that across their 41 years of experience in helping companies that have got into trouble, poor financial management is the major problem facing businesses. The quality of the product, the marketing, the sales force and other measures mean nothing if money is leaking out of the systems.

    Snelleksz applies a much more blunt measure and has put it front and centre of his blog this week. His view is consistent with our own observations that a fish rots from the head and the personality and management style of the owner is a key indicator of how a company will perform. Snelleksz’ view is more tightly targeted than that but no less blunt.

    For the full details, head over to his blog.

     

  • Natural variability, radiative forcing and climate response in the recent hiatus reconciled

    Nature Plants Call for Papers

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    Natural variability, radiative forcing and climate response in the recent hiatus reconciled

    Nature Geoscience
    (2014)
    doi:10.1038/ngeo2228
    Received
    06 March 2014
    Accepted
    17 July 2014
    Published online
    17 August 2014

    Global mean surface warming over the past 15 years or so has been less than in earlier decades and than simulated by most climate models1. Natural variability2, 3, 4, a reduced radiative forcing5, 6, 7, a smaller warming response to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations8, 9 and coverage bias in the observations10 have been identified as potential causes. However, the explanations of the so-called ‘warming hiatus’ remain fragmented and the implications for long-term temperature projections are unclear. Here we estimate the contribution of internal variability associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) using segments of unforced climate model control simulations that match the observed climate variability. We find that ENSO variability analogous to that between 1997 or 1998 and 2012 leads to a cooling trend of about −0.06 °C. In addition, updated solar and stratospheric aerosol forcings from observations explain a cooling trend of similar magnitude (−0.07 °C). Accounting for these adjusted trends we show that a climate model of reduced complexity with a transient climate response of about 1.8 °C is consistent with the temperature record of the past 15 years, as is the ensemble mean of the models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We conclude that there is little evidence for a systematic overestimation of the temperature response to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations in the CMIP5 ensemble.

    At a glance

    Figures

    First | 1-3 of 3 | Last

    left

    1. Estimating the contribution of internal variability to recent temperature trends.
      Figure 1
    2. Updated radiative forcings from solar irradiance and stratospheric aerosols and their impact on the recent temperature trends.
      Figure 2
    3. Simulated global temperature adjusted with revised radiative forcings and the effect of internal variability.
      Figure 3

    right

    Read the full article

    References

    1. IPCC, in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (eds Stocker, T. F. et al.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2013).
    2. Kosaka, Y. & Xie, S. P. Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling. Nature 501, 403–407 (2013).
    3. Meehl, G. A., Arblaster, J. M., Fasullo, J. T., Hu, A. X. & Trenberth, K. E. Model-based evidence of deep-ocean heat uptake during surface-temperature hiatus periods. Nature Clim. Change 1, 360–364 (2011).
    4. Meehl, G. A., Hu, A. X., Arblaster, J. M., Fasullo, J. & Trenberth, K. E. Externally forced and internally generated decadal climate variability associated with the interdecadal Pacific oscillation. J. Clim. 26, 7298–7310 (2013).
    5. Solomon, S. et al. The persistently variable ‘Background’ stratospheric aerosol layer and global climate change. Science 333, 866–870 (2011).
    6. Santer, B. D. et al. Volcanic contribution to decadal changes in tropospheric temperature. Nature Geosci. 7, 185–189 (2014).
    7. Fyfe, J. C., von Salzen, K., Cole, J. N. S., Gillett, N. P. & Vernier, J. P. Surface response to stratospheric aerosol changes in a coupled atmosphere-ocean model. Geophys. Res. Lett. 40, 584–588 (2013).
    8. Lewis, N. An objective Bayesian, improved approach for applying optimal fingerprint techniques to estimate climate sensitivity. J. Clim. 26, 7414–7249 (2013).
    9. Aldrin, M. et al. Bayesian estimation of climate sensitivity based on a simple climate model fitted to observations of hemispheric temperatures and global ocean heat content. Environmetrics 23, 253–271 (2012).
    10. Cowtan, K. & Way, R. G. Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on recent temperature trends. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.2297 (2014)
    11. Schmidt, G. A., Shindell, D. T. & Tsigaridis, K. Reconciling warming trends. Nature Geosci. 7, 158–160 (2014).
    12. Rahmstorf, S., Foster, G. & Cazenave, A. Comparing climate projections to observations up to 2011. Environ. Res. Lett. 7, 044035 (2012).
    13. England, M. H. et al. Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus. Nature Clim. Change 4, 222–227 (2014).
    14. Trenberth, K. E. & Fasullo, J. T. An apparent hiatus in global warming? Earth’s Future 1, 19–32 (2013).
    15. Frohlich, C. Total solar irradiance observations. Surv. Geophys. 33, 453–473 (2012).
    16. Otto, A. et al. Energy budget constraints on climate response. Nature Geosci. 6, 415–416 (2013).
    17. Gillett, N. P., Arora, V. K., Flato, G. M., Scinocca, J. F. & von Salzen, K. Improved constraints on 21st-century warming derived using 160 years of temperature observations. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, L01704 (2012).
    18. Knutti, R. & Hegerl, G. C. The equilibrium sensitivity of the Earth’s temperature to radiation changes. Nature Geosci. 1, 735–743 (2008).
    19. Hansen, J. et al. Efficacy of climate forcings. J. Geophys. Res. 110, D18104 (2005).
    20. Shindell, D. T. Inhomogeneous forcing and transient climate sensitivity. Nature Clim. Change 4, 274–277 (2014).
    21. Thompson, D. W. J., Wallace, J. M., Jones, P. D. & Kennedy, J. J. Identifying signatures of natural climate variability in time series of global-mean surface temperature: Methodology and insights. J. Clim. 22, 6120–6141 (2009).
    22. Fischer, E. M., Beyerle, U. & Knutti, R. Robust spatially aggregated projections of climate extremes. Nature Clim. Change 3, 1033–1038 (2013).
    23. Huber, M. & Knutti, R. Anthropogenic and natural warming inferred from changes in Earth’s energy balance. Nature Geosci. 5, 31–36 (2012).
    24. Stott, P., Good, P., Jones, G., Gillett, N. & Hawkins, E. The upper end of climate model temperature projections is inconsistent with past warming. Environ. Res. Lett. 8, 014024 (2013).
    25. Collins, M. et al. in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (eds Stocker, T. F. et al.) 1029–1136 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2013).
    26. Meinshausen, M. et al. The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300. Climatic Change 109, 213–241 (2011).
    27. Stocker, T. F., Wright, D. G. & Mysak, L. A. A zonally averaged, coupled ocean atmosphere model for paleoclimate studies. J. Clim. 5, 773–797 (1992).

      2.0.CO;2&rft_id=info:pmid/{pubmed}&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.genre=article&rft.aulast=Stocker&rft.aufirst=T. F.&rft.jtitle=J. Clim.&rft.volume=5&rft.spage=773&rft.epage=797&rft.date=1992&rft.atitle=A zonally averaged, coupled ocean atmosphere model for paleoclimate studies&rfr_id=info:sid/nature.com:Nature.com&id=doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1992)005<0773:AZACOA>2.0.CO;2&id=pmid:{pubmed}&genre=article&aulast=Stocker&aufirst=T. F.&title=J. Clim.&volume=5&spage=773&epage=797&date=1992&atitle=A zonally averaged, coupled ocean atmosphere model for paleoclimate studies&sid=nature:Nature”>

    28. Lean, J. L. & Rind, D. H. How will Earth’s surface temperature change in future decades? Geophys. Res. Lett. 36, L15708 (2009).
    29. Levitus, S. et al. World ocean heat content and thermosteric sea level change (0–2000 m), 1955–2010. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, L10603 (2012).
    30. Morice, C. P., Kennedy, J. J., Rayner, N. A. & Jones, P. D. Quantifying uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of observational estimates: The HadCRUT4 data set. J. Geophys. Res. 117, D08101 (2012).

    Download references

    Author information

    Affiliations

    1. Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Universitätstrasse 16 8092 Zurich, Switzerland

      • Markus Huber &
      • Reto Knutti

    Contributions

    M.H. performed the climate model computations and analysis. Both authors designed the study and wrote the paper.

    Competing financial interests

    The authors declare no competing financial interests.

    Corresponding author

    Correspondence to:

    Supplementary information

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  • Most complete Antarctic map for climate research made public Date:

    Featured Research

    from universities, journals, and other organizations

    Most complete Antarctic map for climate research made public

    Date:
    August 18, 2014
    Source:
    University of Waterloo
    Summary:
    A new satellite image of Antarctica has been made available to the public, and the imagery will help scientists all over the world gain new insight into the effects of climate change. Using Synthetic Aperture Radar with multiple polarization modes aboard the RADARSAT-2 satellite, the CSA collected more than 3,150 images of the continent in the autumn of 2008, comprising a single pole-to-coast map covering all of Antarctica. This is the first such map of the area since RADARSAT-1 created one in 1997.
    Mosaic of satellite images of Antarctica taken by RADARSAT-2.
    Credit: (RADARSAT-2 Data and Products © MacDonald, Dettwiler and Associates Ltd. (2008) – All Rights Reserved. RADARSAT is an official mark of the Canadian Space Agency.)

    The University of Waterloo has unveiled a new satellite image of Antarctica, and the imagery will help scientists all over the world gain new insight into the effects of climate change.

    Thanks to a partnership between the Canadian Space Agency (CSA), MacDonald, Dettwiler and Associates Ltd. (MDA), the prime contractor for the RADARSAT-2 program, and the Canadian Cryospheric Information Network (CCIN) at UWaterloo, the mosaic is free and fully accessible to the academic world and the public.

    Using Synthetic Aperture Radar with multiple polarization modes aboard the RADARSAT-2 satellite, the CSA collected more than 3,150 images of the continent in the autumn of 2008, comprising a single pole-to-coast map covering all of Antarctica. This is the first such map of the area since RADARSAT-1 created one in 1997.

    “The mosaic provides an update on the ever-changing ice cover in this area that will be of great interest to climatologists, geologists, biologists and oceanographers,” said Professor Ellsworth LeDrew, director of the CCIN and a professor in the Faculty of Environment at Waterloo. “When compared to the previous Antarctic RADARSAT-1 mosaic, we can map changes in the icescape with unprecedented accuracy and confidence. Earth’s polar regions are considered a bellwether for the effects of climate change.”

    Professor LeDrew is at the forefront of a cultural shift in the way researchers discover, share and preserve their research data. The CCIN links international researchers around the world with numerous government, university and private organizations to provide data and information management infrastructure for the Canadian cryospheric community. This mosaic map of the Antarctic is the latest addition to the CCIN’s Polar Data Catalogue. It is available on the Polar Data Catalogue website. (https://www.polardata.ca/pdcsearch/)

    “The Polar Data Catalogue’s mandate is to make such information freely available to scientists, students and the public to enhance our understanding and stewardship of the polar regions,” said Professor LeDrew. “We are proud to work with the Canadian Space Agency and MDA to bring this outstanding Canadian technology and science to the international community.”

    Next up for the partnership is a similar mosaic for Greenland, which will provide further crucial information about our shifting climate in the northern hemisphere. There are also plans to continue creating mosaics of Antarctica every few years to provide more data for researchers.

    Story Source:

    The above story is based on materials provided by University of Waterloo. Note: Materials may be edited for content and length.

  • Ocean warming could drive heavy rain bands toward poles

    Featured Research

    from universities, journals, and other organizations

    Ocean warming could drive heavy rain bands toward poles

    Date:
    August 18, 2014
    Source:
    Wiley
    Summary:
    In a world warmed by rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, precipitation patterns are going to change because of two factors: one, warmer air can hold more water; and two, changing atmospheric circulation patterns will shift where rain falls. According to previous model research, mid- to high-latitude precipitation is expected to increase by as much as 50 percent. Yet the reasons why models predict this are hard to tease out.
    Ocean warming could drive heavy rain bands toward the poles, researchers say.
    Credit: Image courtesy of Wiley

    In a world warmed by rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, precipitation patterns are going to change because of two factors: one, warmer air can hold more water; and two, changing atmospheric circulation patterns will shift where rain falls. According to previous model research, mid- to high-latitude precipitation is expected to increase by as much as 50%. Yet the reasons why models predict this are hard to tease out.

    Using a series of highly idealized model runs, Lu et al. found that ocean warming should cause atmospheric precipitation bands to shift toward the poles. The changes in atmospheric circulation brought on by a warming ocean should cause an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events at mid- and high-latitudes, and a reduction in the same near the equator. The changes would mean that, for high-latitude regions, now-rare storms would become much more common.

    The authors tested the effect of ocean warming on atmospheric circulation and precipitation using a highly idealized “aquaplanet” model, a representation of the Earth that was just sea and sky, but no land. They ran the model at a range of spatial resolutions and found that the changes in precipitation that stem from changing circulation patterns may possibly outweigh changes that derive from other factors.

    Story Source:

    The above story is based on materials provided by Wiley. Note: Materials may be edited for content and length.

    Journal Reference:

    1. Jian Lu, L. Ruby Leung, Qing Yang, Gang Chen, William D. Collins, Fuyu Li, Z. Jason Hou, Xuelei Feng. The robust dynamical contribution to precipitation extremes in idealized warming simulations across model resolutions. Geophysical Research Letters, 2014; 41 (8): 2971 DOI: 10.1002/2014GL059532

      Featured Research

      from universities, journals, and other organizations

      Ocean warming could drive heavy rain bands toward poles

      Date:
      August 18, 2014
      Source:
      Wiley
      Summary:
      In a world warmed by rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, precipitation patterns are going to change because of two factors: one, warmer air can hold more water; and two, changing atmospheric circulation patterns will shift where rain falls. According to previous model research, mid- to high-latitude precipitation is expected to increase by as much as 50 percent. Yet the reasons why models predict this are hard to tease out.
      Ocean warming could drive heavy rain bands toward the poles, researchers say.
      Credit: Image courtesy of Wiley

      In a world warmed by rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, precipitation patterns are going to change because of two factors: one, warmer air can hold more water; and two, changing atmospheric circulation patterns will shift where rain falls. According to previous model research, mid- to high-latitude precipitation is expected to increase by as much as 50%. Yet the reasons why models predict this are hard to tease out.

      Using a series of highly idealized model runs, Lu et al. found that ocean warming should cause atmospheric precipitation bands to shift toward the poles. The changes in atmospheric circulation brought on by a warming ocean should cause an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events at mid- and high-latitudes, and a reduction in the same near the equator. The changes would mean that, for high-latitude regions, now-rare storms would become much more common.

      The authors tested the effect of ocean warming on atmospheric circulation and precipitation using a highly idealized “aquaplanet” model, a representation of the Earth that was just sea and sky, but no land. They ran the model at a range of spatial resolutions and found that the changes in precipitation that stem from changing circulation patterns may possibly outweigh changes that derive from other factors.

      Story Source:

      The above story is based on materials provided by Wiley. Note: Materials may be edited for content and length.

      Journal Reference:

      1. Jian Lu, L. Ruby Leung, Qing Yang, Gang Chen, William D. Collins, Fuyu Li, Z. Jason Hou, Xuelei Feng. The robust dynamical contribution to precipitation extremes in idealized warming simulations across model resolutions. Geophysical Research Letters, 2014; 41 (8): 2971 DOI: 10.1002/2014GL059532