admin /9 August, 2008
From The Land
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The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is currently ‘neutral’ – a strong and consistently positive SOI, consistently above about +6 over a two month period, is related to a high probability of above long-term average rainfall for many areas especially in eastern Australia. |
It may not grab headlines, but for croppers across south-eastern Australia, forecasts of average rain patterns throughout the spring are good enough.
With solid July rain totals in many areas, an ‘average’ spring rainfall would be enough for a good winter harvest, to allow most grain farmers some chance at average yields.
With booming prices, that would be a start to replenishing depleted coffers.
After the nightmarish Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) reports in June which suggested a sharp swing towards a markedly drier than average spring, the most recent BOM rain forecast has predicted average conditions for much of south-eastern Australia.
The bureau said the pattern of seasonal rainfall odds across south-eastern Australia is a result of a continued strong warming trend, in the central and south eastern Indian Ocean, off the coast of Western Australia, and a warming trend over the equatorial Pacific.