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  • Climate Council: without action, rising seas will cost us billions

    Australia
    17 September 2014, 6.27am AAEST

    Climate Council: without action, rising seas will cost us billions

    “I Do Like to Be Beside the Seaside” holds true for many Australians who live on or near the coast. On top of the many lifestyle amenities coastal living offers, much of the country’s crucial infrastructure…

    Australia’s coast is famous around the world – but rising sea levels are poised to make things a lot less fun. Adam J.W.C./Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

    “I Do Like to Be Beside the Seaside” holds true for many Australians who live on or near the coast. On top of the many lifestyle amenities coastal living offers, much of the country’s crucial infrastructure (such as road and rail networks, hospitals, water treatment works and waste disposal facilities) is located along our coastline.

    Virtually all of this infrastructure has been designed and built for a stable climate, yet we are living in a new climate system that is no longer stable.

    Rising sea levels pose huge financial, economic and humanitarian risks, as shown by the Climate Council’s latest report, Counting the Costs: Climate Change and Coastal Flooding. If the world ignores the problem, by mid-century rising seas could cost the world more than a trillion dollars a year as floods and storm surges hit.

    How much will the seas rise?

    Climate change is warming the oceans and increasing the flow of ice from the land into the sea. This drives up sea levels, causing coastlines to recede and making flooding more widespread. The primary cause of the 17 cm global average sea-level rise observed during the second half of the 20th century is the increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere from human activities. And sea level is likely to increase by 0.4 to 1.0 m through the 21st century.

    Strong action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions would keep sea-level rise towards the lower end of that range, while a business-as-usual approach to burning fossil fuels would drive it towards the upper end of the range – with potentially massive economic consequences.

    Coastal flooding and economic damage

    Coastal flooding has caused, and is projected to cause, severe damage to economies without adaptation and drastic mitigation measures. Hurricane Katrina, which hit the southern United States in 2005, caused US$100 billion (A$110 billion) in damage and about 2,000 deaths.

    Seven years later, Hurricane Sandy caused US$19 billion in damage to public and private infrastructure and property in New York City alone, as well as hitting other locations along the US east coast and in the Caribbean.

    Forget about the Tom Cruise movie Risky Business – the recent report of the same name, Risky Business: the Economic Risks of Climate Change, led by former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, is much more apt. It starkly sets out the economic risks of climate change to the United States, including the threat of damage to coastal property and infrastructure from rising sea levels and increased storm surges.

    The report predicts that in just over a decade, this double whammy of higher sea levels and storm surges will more than double the costs of coastal storms along the US eastern seaboard and the Gulf of Mexico, to US$3.5 billion a year. Hurricanes Katrina and Sandy are harbingers of things to come.

    Hurricane Katrina: costly, in many senses. Wikimedia Commons
    Click to enlarge

    If the threat of a climate-driven increase in sea level goes unabated, the projected increases in economic damage will be significant. According to a 2011 federal government assessment, more than A$226 billion (in 2008 dollars) in commercial, industrial, road and rail, and residential assets around Australia’s coasts are potentially exposed to flooding and erosion hazards if seas were to rise by 1.1 m (high end scenario for 2100).

    In southeast Queensland, without adaptation, a current 1-in-100-year coastal flooding event would probably cause about A$1.1 billion in damage to residential buildings. With a 0.2 m rise in sea level, a similar flooding event would increase the damages to around A$2 billion, and a 0.5 m rise in sea level would raise projected damages to A$3.9 billion.

    By 2050, if the threat of sea level rise is ignored, the worldwide losses from coastal flooding (and land subsidence) are projected to hit US$1 trillion per year – roughly the size of the entire Australian economy.

    Putting the squeeze on natural ecosystems

    Many coastal and near-shore marine ecosystems, such as mangroves, saltmarshes and seagrass beds, may become trapped in a “coastal squeeze” as rising sea levels come up against fixed landward barriers such as seawalls and urban infrastructure.

    Damaging these ecosystems has detrimental flow-on effects to water quality, carbon storage, and fisheries. Sea-level rise is increasing the salinity of coastal groundwater and pushing salty water further upstream in estuaries, affecting the health of salt-sensitive plants and animals. Saltwater intrusion from rising sea levels is contributing to the loss of freshwater habitats in coastal regions such as Kakadu National Park. Meanwhile, some corals may not be able to keep up with periods of rapid sea-level rise, which would cause reefs to “drown”.

    Australia’s beautiful sandy beaches – a major attraction for Australia’s multi-billion dollar tourism industry – are at risk from coastal erosion. And it’s not just the tourism dollar that is being eroded.

    Feeling the squeeze: many mangroves could be left with nowhere to live. Rob and Stephanie Levy/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY
    Click to enlarge

    Vulnerable communities

    Rising sea level is eroding the viability of coastal communities on Pacific Islands and in low-lying areas of Asia, increasing the likelihood that people will need to resettle elsewhere. Several Torres Strait Island communities live in extremely low-lying areas and already experience flooding during annual high tides. Building seawalls and raising houses can buy time, but in the long term several of these communities may face relocation.

    A sea-level rise of 0.5-2.0 m could displace between 1.2 million and 2.2 million people from the Caribbean region and the Indian and Pacific Ocean islands, assuming that no adaptation occurs.

    The impacts of climate change and coastal flooding are potentially huge. Rapid and deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions are crucial, both in Australia and around the world, if we are to stabilise the climate and slow the seas’ rise.

    If we don’t manage it, then being beside the seaside might turn out not to be so enjoyable after all.

  • Daily update: Rooftop solar future boosted as Labor pledges support

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    Rooftop solar future boosted as Labor pledges support; Coal-fired generation in US to fall by 1/4 by 2020; HESTA super to quit thermal coal; The farmer who likes his wind turbines; Zero energy at zero cost; Australian Energy Storage Council launched; Oceans full of our plastic, here’s what we can do; Everyone loves a dinosaur, but not in our energy system; and It’s time for Australia’s next light-bulb moment.
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    RenewEconomy Daily News
    The Parkinson Report
    The future of the rooftop solar industry looks more assured after Labor pledges support for current legislation, and Save Solar campaign expands and gains political traction. However, the outlook for large scale wind and solar developments remains uncertain.
    State-based renewable energy targets and tight emissions standards – on mercury and CO2 – will slash coal burning in US.
    HESTA, an Australian super fund with $29bln in assets, to quit new thermal coal investments, citing “unburnable carbon” scenarios and stranded asset fears.
    WA cattle farmer: “No-one in their right mind could put up an argument and say wind turbines aren’t of benefit.”
    The Netherlands has found a way to refurbish existing buildings to net zero energy, within a week, with a 30-year builders’ guarantee and no subsidies.
    New peak body for the energy storage industry created by solar sector.
    By 2050, 95% of seabirds will have plastic in their gut. Just one finding the the largest sample of marine debris data ever collected anywhere in the world.
    Do our largest energy companies aspire to be dinosaurs or would they rather be creatures of the future?
    It’s nearly five years since the old incandescent lights were taken off the shelves. But the job of regulating lighting e
  • Mrs Australia takes local organic fashion to the world

    Mrs Australia
    Brisbane based Mrs Australia will be showcasing local, organic clothes internationally

    Perth-based Haute Couture designer Zuhal of Green Embassy is set to have her work showcased in the United States in November as the designer of Mrs Australia World’s national costume. Local woman Danielle Marsh is our representative as the current Mrs Australia World and is campaigning on a platform of organics for health and Ovarian Cancer Awareness.

    The Mrs World title originates from the prestigous Mrs America competition and are broadcast to audiences worldwide. Ladies from all over the world come to compete for the title of Mrs World. Danielle Marsh has campaigned to raise awareness for this silent killer that claims over 1200 women each year in Australia and every 10 hours a woman is diagnosed. Danielle has campaigned to raise awareness for the signs and symptoms as there is no test as well as promoting the benefits of an organic lifestyle to reduce your risk factors of cancer and improve recovery during and after treatment. Recently she swam from Victoria Point in Brisbane to North Stradbroke Island over 15km without a shark cage and by herself to raise awareness and will trek to Everest Base Camp in September to further raise awareness. Visit https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/don-t-stop-teal-i-drop for more information

    The gorgeous  national costume is made from all organic materials sourced locally and also features traditional aboriginal art from artist Deborah Bonar and made of organic merino wool, silk, real iron ore beads and fresh water pearls to showcase the best of Australia.

    Green Embassy is the brain child of Zuhal Kuvan-Mills, using 100% handmade organic Australian alpaca, merino, silk and recycled natural fibres, each garment is beautifully unique. Each item is entirely hand crafted and hand dyed. Our knits are made from hand-spun yarns making each piece almost a work of art than just clothing. She originally was a veterinarian and animal science lecturer before starting Green Embassy from her own NASAA certified organic alpaca hobby farm.

    Despite appearing in UK Vogue and featuring in a number of fashion shows across the world, local interest has been minimal.

    Together Green Embassy and Mrs Australia World plan to take on the world  to raise awareness of ovarian cancer and help promote Australian organic businesses and the benefits of its lifestyle.

  • A federal ICAC? ‘Accountability’ & the decay of politics

    A federal ICAC? ‘Accountability’ & the decay of politics

    by · September 14, 2014

    [Graphic: Newcastle Herald]

    NSW Liberals bowled over by ICAC [Graphic: Newcastle Herald]

    It’s been enjoyable indeed to watch the humiliation of both sides of NSW politics on the ICAC witness stand. But, unlike Peter Hartcher in the Sydney Morning Herald — or the Greens, who have been pushing the idea for some time — I don’t think a federal ICAC would either solve the problem of “political corruption” or hold the political class “accountable” any more than the NSW version has. To understand why, it’s necessary to grasp the social basis of the crisis of Australian politics, as well as the limits of modern representative politics in general.Hartcher is scathing of all the political parties bar the Greens, but singles out Clive Palmer for voting for and pushing legislation in his own interests. Yet the reason the political class (most acutely in the case of Palmer, but this holds true across the board) appears to be increasingly self-interested and unaccountable has little to do with a fundamental change in its historic patterns of behaviour. In fact politicians, far from representing some kind of pure “general” or “national” interest, have always acted at least in part in the interests of their bases of support in civil society, as well as in the interests of the state itself. To imagine that Liberal MPs have only recently started doing favours for business supporters is to obscure the reason for existence of the Liberal party — to provide a pro-business bulwark against Labourism. Similarly, the idea that the ALP is only these days feathering the nests of union bureaucrats who have always been central to the party’s operations is more than a little weird.

    Once you realize that much of what is being caught out now has actually been business as usual in the past, the issue starts to look a little different. It also explains the perplexity of many politicians as to why they should be punished for what is just normal politics in their eyes, and why they complain that the rules are simply becoming too tough or, in Tony Abbott’s tin-eared view, too confusing to understand.

    The real problem for the political class doesn’t lie in the shady dealings that have long infected politics, but in the way that the social bases of the “representative” political system that dominated last century have eroded, hollowed out and in some cases dissolved entirely. It was the relationship of politicians and parties to broad and powerful social groups that provided the material basis for the appearance that “representation” meant the representation of general social interests. When the ALP was the political arm of a trade union movement that not only had as members three or four times the current proportion of employees, but also had active and self-organised networks in workplaces across the country, the party’s sectional base could not be written off as a narrow, irrelevant rump. And the Left-Right polarity of the post-WWII era could have the appearance of playing out, in political form, the great labour-capital divide of modern Australian society. (For a more detailed examination of the hollowing out of Labor’s base, see this from 2012.)

    With the loss of such roots in society, the political class is unable to pose as being representative of society in the way it once could, and this is the key reason for its loss of authority over the last 30 years. It no longer appears accountable to a large part of society, only to its very narrow base of core supporters, or in PUP’s case to Palmer’s personal business interests. It is this state of affairs, one that exists not in people’s heads but in reality, which drives an increasingly punitive popular anti-political mood. That this mood has started to spread to the middle class and even sections of big business, especially after the catastrophic inability of the Abbott government to win consent for its pro-business Budget, suggests just how difficult the situation has become. While having a different view of the causes of the crisis of politics to this blog, Paul Kelly has spelled out the worry among elites as to where this might all lead:

    I think our political culture is being debased and I’ve argued that we are now in what I call a crisis of the system. For me, this is the main takeout from the entire Rudd-Gillard period. And I argue here that what this period shows is that governing is becoming a lot more difficult, and reform, national interest reform is becoming even more difficult still.

    The less connected with society the politicians are, the less they can drive through agendas of the kind that Labor did during the Hawke-Keating years: winning its own supporters in the unions to accepting sacrifice in the interests of boosting weak capital accumulation and more power for bosses relative to workers in the workplace.

    Greens staffers and MP celebrate “the most important accountability mechanism in the state”

    Greens celebrate “the most important accountability mechanism” in NSW

    To think that a body like ICAC can overcome these kinds of systemic problems is entirely misplaced. All that does is strengthen the idea that the state itself must police its political class, increasingly free of any popular accountability. When NSW Greens MP John Kaye called ICAC “the most important accountability mechanism in the state” he was feeding this logic. Despite my caveats later in this post, surely democratic accountability is far more important than that imposed by an unelected state commission that has broad powers of surveillance and coercion?

    The deference to ICAC is part of the same constellation of ideas that looks to greater (or even full) public funding of parties and election campaigns, often alongside selective or blanket bans on private donations. In each case the aim is to reduce direct financial control by private citizens over the political process. This is part of a longer-run trend of the political class coming to terms with its withered base and therefore looking for a stable financial and organisational basis for its activities that no longer relies on a populace increasingly hostile to it. The current scandals over developer donations are themselves the result of the decline of previously much broader sources of party funding. The retreat of the unions, for example, has left the ALP more reliant on other sources of cash, and the likes of Eddie Obeid were central to trying to fill the gap. This happened alongside increasing state funding of election campaigns since the 1980s, so there is less pressure for parties to build the same kinds of mass organisations and networks that sustained them in earlier times. Combined with compulsory voting, these trends have obscured the decomposition of politics, although in recent years things have started to become much clearer — especially as both sides of NSW politics have been sucked into the ICAC singularity.

    Sadly, the NSW Greens have been leading the way on such arguments, giving them a Left veneer. When they collaborated with the O’Farrell government to outlaw organisational donations to parties on the basis that this would limit “corporate” influence, the legislation ended up being successfully challenged in the courts not by big business but by NSW unions, who rightly pointed out how the laws had further diminished working class influence over politics. The end result for the Greens was a painful internal debate alongside public humiliation for their stance. Without for a minute defending the financial dealings that have been central to the political system for over a century, it should be possible to recognise that limiting popular influence over politics is a move away from — and not towards — a more democratic society. No amount of hand wringing over the socio-economic disparities that underpin inequality of political representation should lead us to think that the state can or will solve that inequality by political or legislative fiat.

    So perhaps the alternative is a return to a more socially rooted, more truly “representative” political system? Leaving aside whether there is a social basis for the rebuilding of those institutions, such a view misunderstands the limitations of political representation in the capitalist state. In developing his critique of the state, Marx argued that the separation between civil society and state in bourgeois society could not be resolved through representative democracy. This is because the state stands “over against” the competing interests of a civil society of atomised private individuals. As Lucio Colletti lucidly summarises in his introduction to Marx’s Early Writings:

    At this point one sees how Marx’s critique of the separation between state and civil society is carried to its logical (and extreme) conclusion. Even from a formal point of view, the representative principle of the modern state is shown to be a fundamental contradiction in terms. In so far as parliamentary deputies are elected by the people, it is thereby recognised that the principle of “sovereignty” or power belongs in the popular mass itself. It is admitted that delegates “draw their authority” from the latter — and so can be no more than people’s representatives, bound by instructions or by the “mandate” of their electors. Yet no sooner has the election taken place and the deputies been “sworn in” then this principle is up-ended: they are no longer “mere delegates”, mere servants, but independent of their electors. Their assembly, parliament, no longer appears as an emanation of society but as society itself — as the real society outside which there remains nothing but a formless aggregate, an inchoate mass of private wishes.

    The severely limited and alienated nature of political representation cannot be overcome through a reconfiguration of representative forms, or even of the state itself. That is, it cannot be solved at the level of politics because it is the product of deeper social contradictions. Rather, it requires a more fundamental social reorganisation where the interests of individuals and those of society as a whole can be brought together, not in the form of the “illusory community” that is the political state but through “an association, in which the free development of each is the condition for the free development of all”. Such an arrangement — far more democratic than anything we have today — would resolve the question of accountability in a way that today’s ICAC boosters cannot even begin to imagine, precisely because they are committed to trying to rehabilitate the “illusory community” currently decaying before everyone’s eyes

    – See more at: http://left-flank.org/2014/09/14/federal-icac-accountability-decay-politics/#sthash.0YZucWRN.dpuf

  • Study resolves discrepancy in Greenland temperatures during end of last ice age

    Study resolves discrepancy in Greenland temperatures during end of last ice age

    09/04/2014

    CORVALLIS, Ore. – A new study of three ice cores from Greenland documents the warming of the large ice sheet at the end of the last ice age – resolving a long-standing paradox over when that warming occurred.

    Large ice sheets covered North America and northern Europe some 20,000 years ago during the coldest part of the ice age, when global average temperatures were about four degrees Celsius (or seven degrees Fahrenheit) colder than during pre-industrial times. And then changes in the Earth’s orbit around the sun increased the solar energy reaching Greenland. Beginning some 18,000 years ago, release of carbon from the deep ocean led to a graduate rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2).

    Yet past analysis of ice cores from Greenland did not show any warming response as would be expected from an increase in CO2 and solar energy flux, the researchers note.

    In this new study, funded by the National Science Foundation and published this week in the journal Science, scientists reconstructed air temperatures by examining ratios of nitrogen isotopes in air trapped within the ice instead of isotopes in the ice itself, which had been used in past studies.

    Not only did the new analysis detect significant warming in response to increasing atmospheric CO2, it documents a warming trend at a rate closely matching what climate change models predict should have happened as the Earth shifted out of its ice age, according to lead author Christo Buizert, a postdoctoral researcher at Oregon State University and lead author on the Science article.

    “The Greenland isotope records from the ice itself suggest that temperatures 12,000 years ago during the so-called Younger Dryas period near the end of the ice age were virtually the same in Greenland as they were 18,000 years ago when much of the northern hemisphere was still covered in ice,” Buizert said. “That never made much sense because between 18,000 and 12,000 years ago atmospheric CO2 levels rose quite a bit.”

    “But when you reconstruct the temperature history using nitrogen isotope ratios as a proxy for temperature, you get a much different picture,” Buizert pointed out. “The nitrogen-based temperature record shows that by 12,000 years ago, Greenland temperatures had already warmed by about five degrees (Celsius), very close to what climate models predict should have happened, given the conditions.”

    Reconstructing temperatures by using water isotopes provides useful information about when temperatures shift but can be difficult to calibrate because of changes in the water cycle, according to Edward Brook, an Oregon State paleoclimatologist and co-author on the Science study.

    “The water isotopes are delivered in Greenland through snowfall and during an ice age, snowfall patterns change,” Brook noted. “It may be that the presence of the giant ice sheet made snow more likely to fall in the summer instead of winter, which can account for the warmer-than-expected temperatures because the snow records the temperature at the time it fell.”

    In addition to the gradual warming of five degrees (C) over a 6,000-year period beginning 18,000 years ago the study investigated two periods of abrupt warming and one period of abrupt cooling documented in the new ice cores. The researchers say their leading hypothesis is that all three episodes are tied to changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), which brings warm water from the tropics into the high northern latitudes.

    The first episode caused a jump in Greenland’s air temperatures of 10-15 degrees (C) in just a few decades beginning about 14,700 years ago. An apparent shutdown of the AMOC about 12,800 years ago caused an abrupt cooling of some 5-9 degrees (C), also over a matter of decades.

    When the AMOC was reinvigorated again about 11,600 years ago, it caused a jump in temperatures of 8-, 11 degrees (C), which heralded the end of the ice age and the beginning of the climatically warm and stable Holocene period, which allowed human civilization to develop.

    “For these extremely abrupt transitions, our data show a clear fingerprint of AMOC variations, which had not yet been established in the ice core studies,” noted Buizert, who is in OSU’s College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences.  “Other evidence for AMOC changes exists in the marine sediment record and our work confirms those findings.”

    In their study, the scientists examined three ice cores from Greenland and looked at the gases trapped inside the ice for changes in the isotopic ration of nitrogen, which is very sensitive to temperature change. They found that temperatures in northwest Greenland did not change nearly as much as those in southeastern Greenland – closest to the North Atlantic – clearly suggesting the influence of the AMOC.

    “The last deglaciation is a natural example of global warming and climate change,” Buizert said. “It is very important to study this period because it can help us better understand the climate system and how sensitive the surface temperature is to atmospheric CO2.”

    “The warming that we observed in Greenland at the end of the ice age had already been predicted correctly by climate models several years ago,” Buizert added. “This gives us more confidence that these models also predict future temperatures correctly.”

    About the OSU College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences: CEOAS is internationally recognized for its faculty, research and facilities, including state-of-the-art computing infrastructure to support real-time ocean/atmosphere observation and prediction. The college is a leader in the study of the Earth as an integrated system, providing scientific understanding to address complex environmental challenges

  • Intelligent packaging to reduce fraud, theft and food waste

    Guido Schmitz
    Guide Schmitz from Bayer at an intelligent packaging gab-fest

    The Active & Intelligent Packaging Industry Association, AIPIA, has confirmed that the speaker line-up at its November Congress in Chicago, USA includes Dr. Lee Nicholson, Director at PepsiCo’s Corporate R&D. He leads PepsiCo Advanced Research’s Packaging Innovation Group at the Skyline Lab and will share his views on the Opportunities In Interactive Packaging for Consumer Goods.
    The event, which is held in conjunction with PACK EXPO International and Pharma EXPO, owned and produced by PMMI, The Association for Packaging and Processing Technologies from 2-4 November at McCormick Place, Chicago, is set to be the largest gathering for Active & Intelligent Packaging technologies ever held.Other recent, important speaker confirmations include Andy Hobsbawm, Founder and Chief Marketing Officer of  Evrythng, who will discuss Where the Smart Money is Going in Smart Packaging; Sumitra Rajagopalan, Founder and CEO of Bioasta Tech who will look at Creating Breakthrough Packaging Solutions with Intelligent Polymers; and Laurent Tonnelier, co-founder and CEO of mobiLead, covering the Internet of Things: from product identification to related content and services.
    ”This is the most comprehensive program of speakers we have ever assembled” Eef de Ferrante, Executive Director of AIPIA. “There is a huge amount of knowledge and information across the entire Active and Intelligent Packaging spectrum and we expect a very stimulating three days,” he added.
    “We are particularly pleased to welcome a representative of PAC FOOD WASTE, the Packaging Association, to our forum. Rachel Morier will explore the interplay between packaging innovation and causes of food waste, a highly topical subject” explained de Ferrante.