Is Kevin Rudd watching his re-election prospects float away? Photo: Glen Hunt

If this morning’s Newspoll was not enough, the Rudd Government’s world of pain is about to get worse.

This afternoon, the Reserve Bank is almost a dead certainty to increase interest rates. Despite the fact that a forecast increase of 0.25 percentage points would still mean rates are two per cent lower than they were when the Government took office, it will be immaterial.

Homeowners will only see increased mortgages and the Opposition will jump up and down and blame reckless spending for driving up rates.

Which brings us to tomorrow’s release of an audit by the federal Auditor General into the $16 billion school halls program. By all reports, this audit, called for last year by the Opposition, is meant to be scathing of the program because of the potential it created for rorts and wasting money.

The Newspoll shows the Coalition ahead of Labor on a two-party-preferred basis – by 51 per cent to 49 per cent – for the first time since August 2006 when Kim Beazley led the Opposition and John Howard was prime minister.

What will really spook the Government is Rudd’s approval rating going into complete freefall, dropping a poll-record 11 points in a fortnight, and Labor’s primary vote plunging eight points to 35 per cent over the same period.

While Rudd remains ahead of Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, every other index is bad for Labor. People are not shifting to the Coalition but this poll, assuming it is not a rogue, shows they are turning off the Government and indicating their vote is for sale.

Although the Government’s fortunes have been on the decline for some time, helped along by the odd scandal such as the insulation bungles and the occasional broken or unfulfilled promise, the decision revealed last week by the Herald to dump the ETS seems to have broken Rudd’s compact with the people.

Those voters who did switch to Labor at the last election because of climate change are clearly at risk of being lost. But it goes further than those voters.

The shelving of the ETS betrayed a lack of principle and intestinal fortitude