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  • IPCC leak: hotter ocean, higher sea level

    IPCC leak: hotter ocean, higher sea level

    By a staff reporter

    The oceans are becoming a repository for almost all the Earth’s excess heat, driving up sea levels and threatening coastlines, according to a draft of the most comprehensive United Nations report addressing climate science leaked to Bloomberg News.

    Citing the study, Bloomberg said temperatures in the shallowest waters rose by more than 0.1 degrees Celsius a decade for the 40 years through 2010.

    Average sea levels also increased worldwide by about 19 centimeters since 1901 and researchers said it’s “very likely” the system of ocean currents that includes the Gulf Stream will slow in the coming decades.

    Bloomberg said it obtained the 2,200-page report, which will guide the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as it devises a new treaty to fight climate change by 2015, from a person with official access to the report who declines to be identified because it wasn’t published.

    “The Earth is absorbing more heat than it is emitting back into space, and nearly all this excess heat is entering the oceans and being stored there,” the report’s authors wrote. “Changes have been observed in ocean properties of relevance to climate during the past 40 years, including temperature, salinity, sea level, carbon, pH and oxygen.”

    It’s “extremely likely” mankind is responsible for more than half of the observed temperature rises since the 1950s and it’s “virtually certain” the global rate of sea-level rise has accelerated over the past two centuries, according to the summary document.

    Jonathan Lynn, a spokesman for IPCC, declined to comment on the report.

    “It’s still a work in progress and may change in the light of comments from government and it may not yet meet the IPCC’s rigorous quality and accuracy standards,” he told Bloomberg.

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  • An economic message lost in a Rudd-storm

    An economic message lost in a Rudd-storm

    Crikey

    At some point early on in the election campaign, Labor must have opened up the policy cupboards and, shocked at how bare they were, began scrambling to come up with anything that could be portrayed as a positive vision.

    That yielded the thought balloon about northern Australia, with tax differentials and irrigation and growth plans, all off in the, in budget terms, distant future. Then there was shifting Garden Island to Brisbane, a proposal with a truly huge price tag, also off in the never-never. That was followed by an announcement to waste actual money – $50 million – on planning for a Sydney-Canberra-Melbourne high-speed rail line, again off in the future. Part of that $50 million will be spent on further Herculean efforts to get the numbers to add up for a project that can’t be commercially viable unless you write off the tens of billions in construction costs.

    Then there was Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s blatant pitch to economic nationalism last night in expressing his uneasiness about foreign investment. In response to a question that might have come straight from Pauline Hanson, Opposition Leader Tony Abbott did the right thing and said he welcomed foreign investment, while noting the Coalition proposed to keep better track of it. Rudd, however, spotted an opening and went for it. His stab at folksy populism is worth quoting at length:

    I’m a bit old-fashioned on these questions and I’m not quite as free market as Tony on this stuff and I’ll just explain to you, maybe it’s because I grew up on a farm, I’m not sure. I think in the future if I see a good model for how we should develop some of our undeveloped agricultural lands, or some which need a whole lot more investment, I reckon joint venture approaches are much better, where you’ve got equity in it from farmers, maybe even through farming co-operatives and if you need a whole bunch of capital to develop the land further, domestic investment or some external investment. But I am a bit nervous, a bit anxious, frankly, about simply an open slather on this. So your question is, what would our policy approach be? I am looking very carefully at how this affects the overall balance of ownership in Australia. I’m thinking particularly of our agricultural sector, but the impact in certain cities also of these sorts of acquisitions.

    Rudd’s anti-foreign investment sentiments might have been delivered without the blunt xenophobia of a Barnaby Joyce or Bob Katter, but it’s the same core message. Tony Abbott, who successfully fought off an effort by the Nationals to exploit this issue, was left holding what used to be a consensus between the major parties that foreign investment was to be encouraged (then again, Abbott’s walked away from a consensus or two in his time as well).

    Maybe this is Rudd’s own variant of campaigning in poetry and governing in prose. Campaigning with a fair shake of the sauce bottle and governing with programmatic specificity, perhaps. The high-speed rail boondoggle will never be built. The Navy will remain at Garden Island, drawing on the vast services support network that Australia’s largest city provides. No further impediments will be placed in the way of foreign investment. The northern Australian vision will turn out merely to have been a tactic to secure Bob Katter’s preferences. It will all have been rhetoric to get re-elected.

    But none of it relates clearly to Labor’s core election campaign message. Indeed, it’s no longer clear what that message is. Initially it was roughly similar to what Julia Gillard’s campaign message would have been: about managing economic transition, about education, about health and disability care. It may have been unambitious, but it was a solid foundation because voters at least recognised that Labor had done the work in all three areas. Instead, Rudd and the campaign brainstrust appear to have decided that’s not enough to sustain a five-week campaign, and turned to a bunch of balloons to hoist it aloft.

    One of the persistent criticisms of Rudd during his first period as PM was his inability to stick to a core message for any sort of extended period. He only did it once, when he tried to make health funding a key issue in 2010. He has visibly failed to do it during this election campaign, preferring instead to shift from one distant vision to the next.

     

  • IPCC leak: hotter ocean, higher sea level

    IPCC leak: hotter ocean, higher sea level

    By a staff reporter

    The oceans are becoming a repository for almost all the Earth’s excess heat, driving up sea levels and threatening coastlines, according to a draft of the most comprehensive United Nations report addressing climate science leaked to Bloomberg News.

    Citing the study, Bloomberg said temperatures in the shallowest waters rose by more than 0.1 degrees Celsius a decade for the 40 years through 2010.

    Average sea levels also increased worldwide by about 19 centimeters since 1901 and researchers said it’s “very likely” the system of ocean currents that includes the Gulf Stream will slow in the coming decades.

    Bloomberg said it obtained the 2,200-page report, which will guide the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as it devises a new treaty to fight climate change by 2015, from a person with official access to the report who declines to be identified because it wasn’t published.

    “The Earth is absorbing more heat than it is emitting back into space, and nearly all this excess heat is entering the oceans and being stored there,” the report’s authors wrote. “Changes have been observed in ocean properties of relevance to climate during the past 40 years, including temperature, salinity, sea level, carbon, pH and oxygen.”

    It’s “extremely likely” mankind is responsible for more than half of the observed temperature rises since the 1950s and it’s “virtually certain” the global rate of sea-level rise has accelerated over the past two centuries, according to the summary document.

    Jonathan Lynn, a spokesman for IPCC, declined to comment on the report.

    “It’s still a work in progress and may change in the light of comments from government and it may not yet meet the IPCC’s rigorous quality and accuracy standards,” he told Bloomberg.

  • Testing sustainable-transportation methods

    rucks at Work

    Testing sustainable-transportation methods

    Aug. 28, 2013 by in Trucks at Work

    Over the last three years, a collection of Swedish government agencies and private companies tested out a variety of truck fuels in combination with what’s been dubbed more “efficient” logistical networks to see whether such efforts could significantly reduce truck emission levels.

    Working under the perhaps unsurprising name “Climate-Smart City Distribution” project, this 36-month effort involved 393 vehicles operating Gothenburg, Sweden, on a wide variety of fuels – biodiesel, biogas and dimethyl ether (DME), hybrid technology, and methane-diesel fuel – and resulted in a reported 30% average reduction in carbon dioxide (CO2) truck emissions; increasing in some cases from 65% to 84%, depending on the fuel and type of vehicle.

    Here’s a breakdown: Of the 393 vehicles that participated in this project, some 48 are light gas-driven vehicles, 44 are heavy methane-diesel vehicles and four are heavy hybrid vehicles.

    Lars Mårtensson, environmental director for Volvo Trucks, noted that in downtown Gothenburg, some 6,500 companies required daily goods distribution services. Thus he believes one of the results of this three-year project is the finding that with better coordination and more efficient utilization of existing vehicles, both congestion and emissions can be reduced even further.

    “In order to fully exploit the available potential, it’s not enough for haulage companies to improve their logistics systems,” he explained. “It is equally important that transport purchasers become better at coordinating their purchases, and here there is a whole lot of room for improvement.”

    Opening up bus lanes to distribution traffic and undertaking more transportation operations when there is less traffic on the roads are other examples of relatively simple measures that can deliver significant environmental benefits, Mårtensson said.

    Yet he also stressed that most difficult challenge, however, was not to develop new fuels or new vehicle technology but to improve the efficiency of current transport operations.

    “With more energy-efficient vehicles, fuels with a lower environmental impact and smarter logistics, it is possible to achieve significant improvements,” added Olof Persson, Volvo’s president and CEO.

    “The problems are the same the world over,” he pointed out. “Populations are growing, along with the need for transport. This brings with it increasing environmental problems such as congestion, noise, poor air quality and climate impact.”

    Yet Mårtensson believes this trend can be reversed. “The road ahead goes via closer cooperation between different actors and here we definitely have a role to play, both locally and globally,” he said.

    The other critical factor here, of course, is whether fleets and their customers can save money by making such changes to both fuel and logistical patterns. That to my mind will be the key to make such efforts trult successful over the long term.

    Please Log In or Register to post comments.

    What’s Trucks at Work?

    Trucks at Work: Sean Kilcarr comments on trends affecting the many different strata of the trucking industry.

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  • Is the Pacific Ocean Responsible for a Pause in Global Warming?

    Is the Pacific Ocean Responsible for a Pause in Global Warming?

    Sea-surface temperatures may explain why climate change is not warming the planet as fast

    By David Biello

    global-mean-temperature-graph

    GLOBAL WARMING PAUSE? Average surface temperatures have not been climbing as rapidly in recent years, and the tropical Pacific Ocean may be the reason. Image: Courtesy of Scripps Institution of Oceanogrpahy

    From the 1940s through the 1970s there was no major warming trend in the average surface temperature of Earth. At the same time, the tropical Pacific Ocean, which is responsible for the weather patterns known as El Niño and La Niña that can swing global average temperatures by as much as 0.3 degree Celsius, was anomalously cold. For the past decade or so the tropical Pacific has again gone cold—more Niña than Niño—and a new study suggests that the phenomenon may explain the recent “pause” in global warming of average temperatures.

    Since 1998’s record heat, average surface temperatures have plateaued for a decade or so—failing to reach new peaks—although the decade also qualifies as the hottest on record. Rising concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have not accelerated warming to new heights as rapidly as happened at the end of the 20th century.

    To explain this apparent hiatus, climate scientists Shang-Ping Xie and Yu Kosaka of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California, San Diego, added the sea. Plugging in observed sea-surface temperatures as well as the more traditional numbers for the extra heat trapped by greenhouse gases into the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory computer model of the oceans and atmosphere might reveal if the cooler tropical Pacific was responsible for the climate change pause. By adding in the sea-surface temperatures of an oceanic area covering roughly 8 percent of the globe, the researchers were able to mimic the recent hiatus in global warming as well as weather phenomena like the prolonged drought in the southern U.S. The results are detailed in Nature on August 29. (Scientific American is part of Nature Publishing Group.) “The tropical Pacific is the engine that drives the global atmosphere and climate,” Xie says. “There were epochs of accelerated and stalled warming in the past,” including that pause in a global warming trend between the 1940s and 1970s, which has often been attributed to sunlight-blocking air pollution from Europe, the Soviet Union and the U.S.

    Whereas the largest ocean on a globe that is 70 percent water covered is an obvious driver of climate patterns, it is less clear what drives the cycles of cooling and heating of tropical Pacific Ocean waters. But it is clear that the cool Pacific pattern cannot persist forever to cancel out the extra heat trapped by rising CO2 concentrations, Xie notes.

    Other factors—volcanoes, an unusually weak solar cycle, air pollution from China—probably play an important role in restraining global warming as well. Some of the observed climate effects may also stem from other ocean dynamics such as variations in the mixing of surface and deep ocean waters. Already, it appears that ocean waters down to 2,000 meters in depth have trapped a disproportionate share of heat, warming by roughly 0.1 degree C (the equivalent of roughly 36 degrees C of atmospheric warming) since 1955. And the meltdown of significant ice from Greenland or Antarctica might even cool oceans enough to offset the extra heat trapped by rising levels of greenhouse gases for a time. “We need updates to the forcings and a proper exploration of all the different mechanisms together,” says climate modeler Gavin Schmidt of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies. “This has taken time but will happen soon-ish.” The U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change will deliver its update on global warming at the end of September.

    Despite any pause in the trend toward hotter temperatures, the first decade of the 21st century was the hottest based on records kept since the 1880s—and it included record heat waves in Russia and the U.S. as well as a precipitous meltdown of Arctic sea ice and surging sea level rise. Atmospheric concentrations of CO2 touched 400 parts per million on Mauna Loa in May, a first in the time line of human existence. A cooler Pacific stuck in a La Niña rut may have restrained global warming for the past decade or so, Xie notes, but it is unlikely to last. “This effect of natural variability will be averaged out over a period of 100 years,” he says, “and cannot argue away the threat of persistent anthropogenic warming that is occurring now.”

  • Vanishing ocean smell could also mean fewer clouds

    Vanishing ocean smell could also mean fewer clouds

    By

    Beach smell
    Shutterstock
    Open your eyes: The clouds are disappearing, too.

    Next time you’re at the beach take a deep, long sniff: That special coastal scent might not last forever. While you’re at it, put on some extra sunscreen: As that smell dwindles, cloud cover could, too.

    The unique oceanside smell that flows over your olfactory organs is loaded with sulfur — dimethylsulfide, to be exact, or DMS. It’s produced when phytoplankton decompose. And it’s a fragrant compound that’s as special as it smells: In the atmosphere it reacts to produce sulfuric acid, which aids in the formation of clouds.

    But it’s a smell that’s endangered by climate change. Experiments have linked the rising acidity of the world’s oceans to falling levels of DMS. A paper published online Sunday in the journal Nature Climate Change warns that ocean acidification could reduce DMS emissions by about one-sixth in 2100 compared with pre-industrial levels.

    Clouds do more for us than just dispense  quenching rain and snow: They also reflect light and heat away from the earth, helping to keep temperatures down.

     

    Scientists at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology found that the knock-on effects of rising ocean acidity threaten to rob the world of so much of its cloud cover that global temperatures could noticeably rise.

    “Marine DMS emissions are the largest natural source of atmospheric sulphur and changes in their strength have the potential to alter the Earth’s radiation budget,” the scientists wrote. From an explainer article in Nature:

    On a global scale, a fall in DMS emissions due to acidification could have a major effect on climate, creating a positive-feedback loop and enhancing warming. …

    In a ‘moderate’ scenario described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which assumes no reductions in emissions of heat-trapping gases, global average temperatures will increase by 2.1 to 4.4 °C by the year 2100.

    The model [used for the new research] projected that the effects of acidification on DMS could cause enough additional warming for a 0.23 to 0.48 °C increase if atmospheric CO2 concentrations double. The moderate scenario projects CO2 doubling long before 2100.

    Diminished cloud cover and rising temperatures are bad enough, but the real horror might be raising kids in a world where the only place you can smell the ocean is Bath & Bodyworks.

    John Upton is a science fan and green news boffin who tweets, posts articles to Facebook, and blogs about ecology. He welcomes reader questions, tips, and incoherent rants: johnupton@gmail.com.