Category: Uncategorized

  • Limits in detecting acceleration of ice sheet mass loss due to climate variability

    View full access options

    Nature Geoscience | Letter

    • Print
    • Email
    • Share/bookmark

    Limits in detecting acceleration of ice sheet mass loss due to climate variability

    Nature Geoscience
    (2013)
    doi:10.1038/ngeo1874
    Received
    26 July 2012
    Accepted
    05 June 2013
    Published online
    14 July 2013

    The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have been reported to be losing mass at accelerating rates1, 2. If sustained, this accelerating mass loss will result in a global mean sea-level rise by the year 2100 that is approximately 43 cm greater than if a linear trend is assumed2. However, at present there is no scientific consensus on whether these reported accelerations result from variability inherent to the ice-sheet–climate system, or reflect long-term changes and thus permit extrapolation to the future3. Here we compare mass loss trends and accelerations in satellite data collected between January 2003 and September 2012 from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment to long-term mass balance time series from a regional surface mass balance model forced by re-analysis data. We find that the record length of spaceborne gravity observations is too short at present to meaningfully separate long-term accelerations from short-term ice sheet variability. We also find that the detection threshold of mass loss acceleration depends on record length: to detect an acceleration at an accuracy within ±10 Gt yr−2, a period of 10 years or more of observations is required for Antarctica and about 20 years for Greenland. Therefore, climate variability adds uncertainty to extrapolations of future mass loss and sea-level rise, underscoring the need for continuous long-term satellite monitoring.

    At a glance

    Figures

    First | 1-3 of 3 | Last

    left

    1. Recent mass changes of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets.
      Figure 1
    2. Trend and acceleration uncertainty for Greenland.
      Figure 2
    3. Trend and acceleration uncertainty for Antarctica.
      Figure 3

    right

    Read the full article

    References

    1. Velicogna, I. Increasing rates of ice mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets revealed by GRACE. Geophys. Res. Lett. 36, L19503 (2009).
    2. Rignot, E., Velicogna, I., van den Broeke, M. R., Monaghan, A. & Lenaerts, J. Acceleration of the contribution of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to sea level rise. Geophys. Res. Lett. 38, L05503 (2011).
    3. Bamber, J. L. & Aspinall, W. P. An expert judgement assessment of future sea level rise from the ice sheets. Nature Clim. Change 3, 424–427 (2013).
    4. Anthoff, D., Nicholls, R. & Tol, R. S. The economic impact of substantial sea-level rise. Mitig. Adapt. Strategies Glob. 15, 321–335 (2010).
    5. Meehl, G. et al. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2007).
    6. Van den Broeke, M. et al. Partitioning recent greenland mass loss. Science 326, 984–986 (2009).
    7. Moon, T., Joughin, I., Smith, B. & Howat, I. 21st-century evolution of greenland outlet glacier velocities. Science 336, 576–578 (2012).
    8. Meier, M. F. et al. Glaciers dominate eustatic sea-level rise in the 21st century. Science 317, 1064–1067 (2007).
    9. Hu, A., Meehl, G., Han, W. & Yin, J. Effect of the potential melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet on the meridional overturning circulation and global climate in the future. Deep-Sea Res. Pt. II 58, 1914–1926 (2011).
    10. Hanna, E. et al. Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance 1870 to 2010 based on Twentieth Century Reanalysis, and links with global climate forcing. J. Geophys. Res. 116, D24121 (2011).
    11. Sasgen, I., Dobslaw, H., Martinec, Z. & Thomas, M. Satellite gravimetry observation of Antarctic snow accumulation related to ENSO. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 299, 352–358 (2010).
    12. Van den Broeke, M. & Lipzig, N. P. M. Changes in Antarctic temperature, wind and precipitation in response to the Antarctic Oscillation. Ann. Glaciol. 39, 119–126 (2004).
    13. Holland, D., Thomas, R., de Young, B., Ribergaard, M. & Lyberth, B. Acceleration of Jakobshavn Isbrae triggered by warm subsurface ocean waters. Nature Geosci. 1, 659–664 (2008).
    14. Hanna, E. et al. Hydrologic response of the Greenland ice sheet: The role of oceanographic warming. Hydrol. Processes 23, 7–30 (2009).
    15. Sohn, H-G., Jezek, K. C. & van der Veen, C. J. Jakobshavn Glacier, west Greenland: 30 years of spaceborne observations. Geophys. Res. Lett. 25, 2699–2702 (1998).
    16. Straneo, F. et al. Impact of fjord dynamics and glacial runoff on the circulation near Helheim Glacier. Nature Geosci. 4, 322–327 (2011).
    17. Zwally, H. J. et al. Greenland ice sheet mass balance: Distribution of increased mass loss with climate warming; 2003–07 versus 1992–2002. J. Glaciol. 57, 88–102 (2011).
    18. Shepherd, A. et al. A reconciled estimate of ice-sheet mass balance. Science 338, 1183–1189 (2012).
    19. Wouters, B., Chambers, D. & Schrama, E. GRACE observes small-scale mass loss in Greenland. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L20501 (2008).
    20. Sasgen, I. et al. Antarctic ice-mass balance 2002 to 2011: Regional re-analysis of GRACE satellite gravimetry measurements with improved estimate of glacial-isostatic adjustment. Cryosphere Discuss. 6, 3703–3732 (2012).
    21. A, G., Wahr, J. & Zhong, S. Computations of the viscoelastic response of a 3-D compressible Earth to surface loading: An application to Glacial Isostatic Adjustment in Antarctica and Canada. Geophys. J. Int. 192, 557–572 (2013).
    22. Wahr, J., Swenson, S. & Velicogna, I. Accuracy of GRACE mass estimates. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L06401 (2006).
    23. Van Meijgaard, E. et al. The KNMI Regional Atmospheric Climate Model RACMO Version 2.1 Tech. Rep., KNMI, De Bilt, The Netherlands (Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut, 2008).
    24. Ettema, J. et al. Higher surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet revealed by high-resolution climate modeling. Geophys. Res. Lett. 36, L12501 (2009).
    25. Lenaerts, J. T. M., van den Broeke, M. R., van de Berg, W. J., van Meijgaard, E. & Kuipers Munneke, P. A new, high-resolution surface mass balance map of Antarctica (1979–2010) based on regional atmospheric climate modeling. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, L04501 (2012).
    26. Schwarz, G. Estimating the dimension of a model. Ann. Stat. 6, 461–464 (1978).
    27. Emmert, J. T. & Picone, J. M. Statistical uncertainty of 1967–2005 thermospheric density trends derived from orbital drag. J. Geophys. Res. 116, A00H09 (2011).
    28. Weatherhead, E. C. et al. Factors affecting the detection of trends: Statistical considerations and applications to environmental data. J. Geophys. Res. 103, 17149–17161 (1998).

    Download references

    Author information

    Affiliations

    1. Bristol Glaciology Centre, School of Geographical Science, Bristol BS8 1SS, UK

      • B. Wouters &
      • J. L. Bamber
    2. Department of Physics, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, Colorado 80309, USA

      • B. Wouters
    3. Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht University, 3508 TA Utrecht, The Netherlands

      • M. R. van den Broeke &
      • J. T. M. Lenaerts
    4. Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum GFZ, 14473 Potsdam, Germany

      • I. Sasgen

    Contributions

    B.W. developed the idea and methodology and wrote the article. I.S. provided the GRACE data for Antarctica, J.T.M.L. and M.R.v.d.B. provided the SMB data and J.L.B. developed the methodology to calculate the ice discharge. All authors discussed and commented on the manuscript and methodology.

    Competing financial interests

    The authors declare no competing financial interests.

    Corresponding author

    Correspondence to:

    Supplementary information

    PDF files

    Supplementary Information (4,829 KB)
     

  • The receding threat from ‘peak oil’

    The receding threat from ‘peak oil’

    Oil drilling in California Oil fields like this one have been producing reliably for decades – and show no sign of drying up

    Concerns about oil supplies running dry are receding, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

    Massive new discoveries in the US have led to a “dramatic” change in global prospects.

    The IEA’s head of oil markets, Antoine Halff, says forecasts have had to be repeatedly revised upwards in the past two years.

    Declining US production has been reversed as oil extracted from shale and other new sources comes on stream.

    Mr Halff told BBC News that concerns about an approaching “peak” in oil production have been “moved to the back burner”.

    “Just a few years ago, everybody thought US production was in permanent decline, that the nation had to face the prospect of continuously rising imports – and now the country is moving towards self-sufficiency,” he explained.

    “In the last few years, many forecasters have had to revise their forecasts upwards continuously – sometimes the ink was not dry on the previous forecasts before they had to raise their outlooks again.”

    Developments in major new fields in Texas and North Dakota are behind the change in US oil fortunes, with the so-called Monterey shale beneath California also in prospect.

    According to one IEA estimate, the US may be on course to produce as much oil as Saudi Arabia by 2020, and possibly as soon as 2017.

    Technological revolution

    New technologies have made it possible to exploit oil trapped in types of rock, particularly shale, that were previously thought too difficult to access.

    “Start Quote

    There’s enough oil in this country for another 100 years with our present technology”

    Fred Holmes Independent oil producer

    The same techniques that have enabled the extraordinary rise in shale gas production can be used to reach oil as well.

    Visualisations of seismic data in 3D are one new tool being used to help understand patterns in the geology, and in particular to identify formations of shale that might contain oil or gas.

    The technique of horizontal drilling – the ability to steer drills laterally through rock – has opened up the possibility of extracting oil from entire layers of shale.

    And the controversial practice of “fracking” – fracturing rock under high fluid pressure – allows oil and gas to be freed from rocks previously considered too tightly-packed to exploit.

    This follows a pattern of technical innovations to find new ways of extracting oil from existing fields that might otherwise be depleted.

    Fracking Technologies like fracking allow fossil fuels to be freed from geology previously thought too difficult to exploit

    In central California, where the first oil wells began to flow as far back as the 1890s, the oil originally emerged from the ground under its own pressure.

    In the 1940s, operators had to introduce the technique of injecting steam into the wells to free up the oil and flush it to the surface, a method still in use today.

    More recently, horizontal drilling – in which drills reach more than a mile down and then along – has reached reserves otherwise considered closed.

    According to one independent oil producer, Fred Holmes of Holmes Western, the key factor is a high price for oil, making it worthwhile to continue exploiting existing fields and explore new ones.

    “There’s still plenty of oil – we just haven’t got all of it out of the ground yet. There’s not a real danger of there being no fossil fuel… the oil is still valuable and it’s not easy to get,” he told BBC News.

    “There’s enough oil in this country for another 100 years with our present technology and there’s more around the world to be found yet.”

    Mr Holmes said that the average yield of the San Joaquin valley area was declining by about 8% a year but that new wells and new methods kept production viable.

    New rush

    The Monterey shale beneath California is estimated to contain a vast 15 billion barrels of oil – potentially worth $500bn (£330bn) – though there are uncertainties about whether the complex geology will allow easy extraction.

    Oilfield new build New extraction efforts are happening across a country once thought to be in oil-production decline

    The prospect of a new oil rush has angered environmental campaigners, who argue that the focus should remain on a transition away from fossil fuels.

    Kassie Siegel of the Centre for Biological Diversity said that “a rapid shift to clean energy” was needed to help tackle climate change, and that the mere existence of new oil resources did not mean that they had to be extracted and burned.

    She told BBC News: “We need to win the battle against this big new oil boom in California – and we have to win it in California, where we pride ourselves on being a leader in responding to the climate crisis. Because if we can’t win in California, where in the US can we win it?

    “We’re faced with a choice about what we’re going to do with all this new oil – and we cannot burn this oil without lighting the fuse on a carbon bomb which would shatter our state’s efforts to deal with greenhouse gas emissions.”

    Tom Frantz, an almond farmer and campaigner, has kept watch on the first fracking operations in the area of Shafter, near Bakersfield in California, as oil companies start exploring the potential of the Monterey shale.

    “This is the tip of the iceberg with 70 wells,” he told BBC News. “There could be 500 wells in the same area in three years if it’s economical and this could extend north.

    “Everybody in the path of this thing could be run over in a tidal wave of oil drilling and fracking and hazardous emissions.”

    None of the many companies operating in the area offered any comment when approached by the BBC. The issue remains highly controversial.

    A key factor behind the development of new resources is the relatively high global price for oil. Extracting oil from “unconventional” sources such as “tight” rocks like shale costs more than from traditional reservoirs – and requires far more energy – so only becomes viable at certain price levels.

    A paper published last week in Eos, the newsletter of the American Geophysical Union, supports the assertion that a peak in oil production is “a myth” but argues that the rising cost of extraction could itself provide a limit, and may act as a brake on economic growth.

    Authors James Murray and Jim Hansen, questioning the optimism of energy companies, say production from unconventional sources often falls away rapidly. “The steep declines in production from tight oil wells over time require an ever-increasing treadmill of new drilling just to stay constant.”

    One leading industry figure summed up his view: “The era of cheap oil is over, but we’re a long way from peak oil – costs will go up but then technology will respond.”

    It would appear the age of oil itself is far from over.

    David Shukman Article written by David Shukman David Shukman Science editor

    Synthetic biology: A new battleground?

    02:08 UK time, Friday, 12 July 2013

    Will the emerging science of designing and engineering of new forms of life get the same hostile reception as genetically modified food and crops?

    Read full article

    Comments

    Sign in with your BBC iD, or Register to comment and rate comments

    All posts are reactively-moderated and must obey the house rules.

    Jump to comments pagination

    • Rate this comment positivelyRate this comment negatively

      +1

      Comment number 6.

      Christopher Arnold
      5 Minutes ago

      I just went to the International Energy Agency’s website and there was virtually nothing about renewables. I dare say BP and the like have hand up that particular dummy’s back.

       

    • Rate this comment positivelyRate this comment negatively

      0

      Comment number 5.

      Mark
      6 Minutes ago

      So when we were told we had 50 years of oil left and the prices went up. We infact had lots of oil left. Will the price come down? No.

      Surprised….NOT.

      so in our search for an alternative we discovered fracking.
      We going to call them off now we have lots more oil than we thought?
      No.

      Surprised…NOT.

       

    • Rate this comment positivelyRate this comment negatively

      0

      Comment number 4.

      outsidethebox
      10 Minutes ago

      Good news, disaster postponed for a few decades. Roll on the gay 30’s.

       

    • Rate this comment positivelyRate this comment negatively

      0

      Comment number 3.

      BLACK_PEARL
      23 Minutes ago

      “We’re faced with a choice about what we’re going to do with all this new oil – and we cannot burn this oil without lighting the fuse on a carbon bomb which would shatter our state’s efforts to deal with greenhouse gas emissions.”
      *****
      Ah theres always got to be an alarmist statement to keep the ball rolling. “Carbon Bomb” thats a good one


    •  

  • Labor and Coalition neck and neck in latest Nielsen poll, Rudd leads as preferred PM

    ( Rudd can wait till November to call an election. By which time he may be ahead in the polling. He is in no hurry. We don’t wish to see another hung parliament )

     

     

    Labor and Coalition neck and neck in latest Nielsen poll, Rudd leads as preferred PM

    Updated 4 minutes ago

    Prime Minister Kevin Rudd is continuing to brush off questions about the timing of the election, despite Labor experiencing a significant bounce in the opinion polls.

    Today’s Fairfax/Nielsen poll says the two major parties each have 50 per cent of the two-party preferred vote – a seven-point gain for Labor on last month’s result.

    The ALP’s primary vote has jumped 10 points to 39 per cent, while Mr Rudd leads Opposition Leader Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 55 per cent to 41.

    The Coalition’s primary vote was down three points to 44 per cent, while the Greens’ primary vote fell two points to 9 per cent.

    The poll’s margin of error is 2.6 percentage points.

    Last week a Newspoll, published in The Australian newspaper, also found Labor and the Coalition locked in a dead heat after preferences.

    Speaking in Papua New Guinea this morning, Mr Rudd would not say whether he would call the election soon to capitalise on the results.

    “[There are] a lot of challenges ahead, we’re working on them one by one,” he said.

    This morning Mr Abbott told Channel 9 he always expected the polls would tighten.

    “My instinct is that what they’re really doing is showing their relief at the departure of an unpopular prime minister,” he said.

    Carbon tax dumped, one year early

    The Nielsen poll was published after the Government confirmed it would scrap the carbon tax and move to an emissions trading scheme next year – one year earlier than originally planned.

    The fixed carbon price of $24.15 a tonne will be removed in favour of a floating price, thought to be between $6 and $10 a tonne.

    Families will still receive compensation packages for the carbon tax, but the Government admits cuts will have to be made in other areas to pay for the change.

    Mr Rudd says decisions about where the savings will come from are still under discussion.

    “It necessarily has to be budget-neutral. The key thing though with this change, it would mean that Australian families have less cost-of-living pressures and it would also mean strong action still on climate change,” he said.

    Rudd in PNG for talks with O’Neill before heading to Townsville

    Meanwhile, Mr Rudd is in PNG today and will meet with prime minister Peter O’Neill to discuss offshore processing.

    Immigration Minister Tony Burke will attend the talks to discuss the progress on building the Manus Island detention centre.

    The talks will also include trade, regional security and aid.

    Mr Rudd is due to fly back to Australia today and will visit the north Queensland city of Townsville this afternoon.

    Topics: federal-government, government-and-politics, alp, liberals, foreign-affairs, federal-elections, federal-election, australia, papua-new-guinea

    First posted 4 hours 0 minutes ago

    Have your say


    Please wait while we process your request

    Please wait while we retrieve the user’s information

    Bio

    Your bio is currently empty. Now is a great time to fill in your profile.

    Rank

    This profile is private.

    This profile is only shared with friends.

    This profile is under review.

    We were unable to request friendship with this user.

    We were unable to request friendship with this user. Are you logged in?

    Your friendship request has been sent to this user.

    We were unable to terminate friendship with this user.

    We were unable to terminate friendship with this user. Are you logged in?

    You are no longer friends with this user.

    We were unable to ignore this user.

    We were unable to ignore this user. Are you logged in?

    This user is now ignored.

    We were unable to stop ignoring this user.

    We were unable to stop ignoring this user. Are you logged in?

    This user is no longer ignored.

    We encountered a problem recommending this user.

    pluck_user_recommend_permission

    You have recommended this user.

    Obscenity/VulgarityHate SpeechPersonal AttackAdvertising/SpamCopyright/PlagiarismOther pluck_user_mp-abuse_too_long_err

    Send Cancel

    What Do You Think?


    Please wait while we add your comment.

    Please wait while we contact Facebook.
    Do you wish to connect to Twitter?
    OK Cancel
    Do you wish to connect to LinkedIn?
    OK Cancel
    Do you wish to connect to Facebook?
    OK Cancel

    Thanks for submitting your comment. It will appear after editor approval.

    We were unable to post your comment to Twitter.

    We were unable to post your comment to LinkedIn.

    We restrict rapid posting of multiple comments for quality reasons. You have already posted a comment within the last several seconds. Please try again later.

    We limit the number of comments, reviews, and postings an individual user can submit over a given period for quality reasons. You have currently reached that limit. Please try resubmitting your comment again later.

    We are unable to add your comment at this time.

    We are unable to add your comment. Are you logged in?

    We will not add your comment until you remove the following words: .

    We’re sorry, but the comment you are replying to has been removed from the site.

    Please let us know what you think.

    Please shorten your comment to 1500 characters.

    characters left  character left  characters must be removed  character must be removed

    What Do You Think?

    To leave a comment, you need to sign up.

    Sign up Log in


    Please wait while we perform your request.

    10 comments

    Sort by:

    Oldest to NewestNewest to OldestHighest ScoreMost Active


    Please wait while we perform your request.
    Abuse Reported Report Abuse
    Score: 0

    Name withheld

    abc4lnp

    9:51 AM on 15/07/2013

    This comment is hidden because you have chosen to ignore abc4lnp. Show DetailsHide Details

    The plan was always to transition to an ETS which has been Labor policy for years now so the emotive headlines about dumping and scrapping are just that, childish words from junior tabloid apprentices.
    The part Abbott is in denial over is that the public hate him, it’s not so much about na unpopular PM as an incredibly unpopular Opposition Leader

    0 replies1 reply 0 replies1 reply Please wait while we perform your request.

    Please wait while we perform your request.
    Abuse Reported Report Abuse
    Score: 0

    Name withheld

    wayglo

    9:46 AM on 15/07/2013

    This comment is hidden because you have chosen to ignore wayglo. Show DetailsHide Details

    So far the new Kevin Rudd is very popular with the public he has talked a lot and criticised a lot, but just what new policies has the new Kevin come up with?
    I can`t find any after all the talking and the Kevin Advertisement where Kevin talks about his vision or ideas, but no real policies or how he will change or implement the many areas he talks about in the media interviews.
    Yes, I agree he has made a point of areas of concern for all of us, the economy, business confidence, unemployment, pensions, carbon tax, utilities being to high, illegal arrivals, people smugglers, industry slow down, the end of the resources boom.
    But just what he will do when asked a question on any of the above, all we get is spin and vague replies or excuses like, that policy is being discussed by Cabinet so i`m not going to give my opinion as it`s cabinet decision
    A couple of examples: the carbon price is on Cabinet’s agenda and the claim it will move to a cheaper trading scheme next year, can that be trusted given passed history on pre election promises by Labor and that another budget would be handed down before the so-called switch
    Asylum seekers: President Yudhoyono is hosting regional conference of ministers – “I would expect it to happen within months.”

    So we have a new Kevin, looks the same talks, smiles and acts the same but he`s the new Kevin we are told, and he continually Claims Tony and the Liberal have no policies

    0 replies1 reply 0 replies1 reply Please wait while we perform your request.

    Please wait while we perform your request.
    Abuse Reported Report Abuse
    Score: -2

    Name withheld

    rgg

    9:34 AM on 15/07/2013

    This comment is hidden because you have chosen to ignore rgg. Show DetailsHide Details

    The move to emission trading was part of Labor’s plan. It has been brought forward by one year.
    Abbott’s direct action plan will be a catastrophy for tax payers. He will pay big poluters to ‘volontarily’reduce emissions and pigs might fly. He will pay them out of our taxes.
    The only hope for the Liberals is to dump Abbott and install Malcolm Turnbull who at least believes in emission trading. So does John Howard. It is Howard’s policy at his last election.

    0 replies1 reply 0 replies1 reply Please wait while we perform your request.

    Please wait while we perform your request.
    Abuse Reported Report Abuse
    Score: 0

    Name withheld

    green day

    9:18 AM on 15/07/2013

    This comment is hidden because you have chosen to ignore green day. Show DetailsHide Details

    Just vote Greens people… enough of these clowns in Labour. We NEED carbon tax, we NEED $50 extra for Newstart allowance, and yeah – tax those banks they’re just making themselves and everyone else working in them, rich!

    0 replies1 reply 0 replies1 reply Please wait while we perform your request.

    Please wait while we perform your request.
    Abuse Reported Report Abuse
    Score: -1

    Name withheld

    lugsmobile

    9:01 AM on 15/07/2013

    This comment is hidden because you have chosen to ignore lugsmobile. Show DetailsHide Details

    Abbott is completely hopeless. Can’t answer searching questions, can’t say what he thinks without putting his foot in his mouth, lost without a slogan, not well read or fully informed on the issues he argues against.. only knows how to say no, lies constantly.
    The real surprise with these poll results is how high Abbott’s ratings are… Tony is only headed in one direction… south. Bring on the Coalition leadership challenge… but who could you possibly replace him with who has any credibility and has any support within the party. The only person with some credibility (Turnbull) has no internal party support.

    0 replies1 reply 0 replies1 reply Please wait while we perform your request.

    Please wait while we perform your request.
    Abuse Reported Report Abuse
    Score: -2

    Name withheld

    billagurra

    8:53 AM on 15/07/2013

    This comment is hidden because you have chosen to ignore billagurra. Show DetailsHide Details

    Good on you private parts. And Mr Abbott will I am sure provide all.Our debt is minscule and does not impact on you at all. We enjoy a higher standard of living than ever before in our history. Interest rates are in the basement, unemployment 5% or so, mining companies making billions, gas royalties exploding, what is your problem, you want more?
    Get real and stop catatrophising a great state of wealth and opportunity.
    The pain is in your head!!

    0 replies1 reply 0 replies1 reply Please wait while we perform your request.

    Please wait while we perform your request.
    Abuse Reported Report Abuse
    Score: 2

    Name withheld

    scupundi

    8:37 AM on 15/07/2013

    This comment is hidden because you have chosen to ignore scupundi. Show DetailsHide Details

    The PM said it was the greatest moral challenge of our time. The former PM introduced the carbon tax when she totally ruled out introducing one before the election. The ALP has been banging the table for the last 2years telling us why we needed a carbon tax.

    Now on election eve when they know the carbon tax is just a gratuitous tax that does nothing they scrap it. What a joke!

    The ALP stand for nothing other than getting elected.

    1 replies1 reply 1 replies1 reply Please wait while we perform your request.

    Please wait while we perform your request.
    Abuse Reported Report Abuse
    Score: 2

    Name withheld

    gbe

    8:24 AM on 15/07/2013

    This comment is hidden because you have chosen to ignore gbe. Show DetailsHide Details

    As the saying goes you get the government you deserve and it looks like Rudd’s all noise do nothing scatter gun style of Government is all Australia deserves.

    0 replies1 reply 0 replies1 reply Please wait while we perform your request.

    Please wait while we perform your request.
    Abuse Reported Report Abuse
    Score: -2

    Name withheld

    private parts

    8:04 AM on 15/07/2013

    This comment is hidden because you have chosen to ignore private parts. Show DetailsHide Details

    The electorate clearly want some more Labor pain but why is beyond me. In just 6 years the country has incurred a massive debt creating $22 million a day in interest alone. By any measure Labor is dysfunctional and incompetent and all this from a Labor voter. I want a better Australia for my children and grand children and all I got was mismanagement and waste from labor.

    2 replies1 reply 2 replies1 reply Please wait while we perform your request.

    Please wait while we perform your request.
    Abuse Reported Report Abuse
    Score: 3

    Name withheld

    bob jones

    6:59 AM on 15/07/2013

    This comment is hidden because you have chosen to ignore bob jones. Show DetailsHide Details

    Of course they are neck and neck. Gillard’s gone and Queenslanders love Kevin. After watching Abbott’s new ads last night it is apparent he hasn’t learnt anything about negativity being the reason his popularity is so low. If he was the only one contesting this election I’d pay a fine!

    Australians are starting to wake up to the fact that his smear campaign of the last 3 years has destroyed consumer confidence. How is he worthy of being our PM? A prime minister is suppose to love their country, not hold it back. It’s one thing to hold a government to account in opposition but he has way overstepped the mark. Rudd’s proposed ETS is now cheaper than Abbott’s proposal so that merely exposes his advert against it a lie and most Australians want the monopoly for Telstra to end and support the ALP’s broadband .

    Sorry Tony but I’m prepared to risk another 3 years on the ALP.

    2 replies1 reply 2 replies1 reply Please wait while we perform your request.

    Please wait while we add your comment.

    Please wait while we contact Facebook.
    Do you wish to connect to Twitter?
    OK Cancel
    Do you wish to connect to LinkedIn?
    OK Cancel
    Do you wish to connect to Facebook?
    OK Cancel

    Write a reply

    Thanks for submitting your comment. It will appear after editor approval.

    We were unable to post your comment to Twitter.

    We were unable to post your comment to LinkedIn.

    We restrict rapid posting of multiple comments for quality reasons. You have already posted a comment within the last several seconds. Please try again later.

    We limit the number of comments, reviews, and postings an individual user can submit over a given period for quality reasons. You have currently reached that limit. Please try resubmitting your comment again later.

    We are unable to add your comment at this time.

    We are unable to add your comment. Are you logged in?

    We will not add your comment until you remove the following words: .

    We’re sorry, but the comment you are replying to has been removed from the site.

    Please let us know what you think.

    Please shorten your comment to 1500 characters.

    characters left  character left  characters must be removed  character must be removed


    Please wait while we file your abuse report.

    Report Abuse

    We’re sorry. We were unable to report abuse at this time.

    We limit the number of reactions an individual user can submit over a given period for quality reasons. You have currently reached that limit. Please try resubmitting your abuse report again later.

    Comment is too long. Enter 500 characters or less.

    Obscenity/VulgarityHate SpeechPersonal AttackAdvertising/SpamCopyright/PlagiarismOther Send Cancel


    Please wait while we send the email.

    Email This

    You may send this to 5 e-mail addresses. Please separate each address with a space.

    We’re sorry, but the item you are sending has been removed from the site.

    We’re sorry. We were unable to send the email at this time.

    Please specify a recipient.

    You can only send messages to 5 addresses at a time.

    The address “” is not valid.

    Please specify a subject.

    Send Cancel

    Score
    vote upvotes up
    vote downvotes down

    Please read the House Rules and ABC Online Terms of Use before submitting.

    Search ABC News

    Australia Votes

    Visit the ABC’s 2013 federal election website for:

  • Abbott launches counter-offensive

    Abbott launches counter-offensive

    Tara Ravens, AAPJuly 14, 2013, 6:53 pm

    Tony Abbott has brought a gun to a knife fight.

    The Liberal leader launched a counter-offensive to Kevin Rudd’s incursion into Liberal territory on Sunday, declaring if he can’t win the Labor held seat of Reid he’ll struggle to win government.

    “We are starting our campaign, in effect, from today,” Mr Abbott told a room full of party faithful at a function for Craig Laundy, the Liberal candidate for the western Sydney seat and son of pub baron Arthur Laundy.

    “This is a critical electorate: if we can’t win Reid, it will be very hard to win government.”

    Tellingly, Mr Abbott has indicated he still plans to blitzkrieg what was once impenetrable Labor heartland – despite the Rudd effect.

    And he’s effectively shadow boxing Mr Rudd, who’s launched an ambitious attack on the coalition’s marginal seats since assuming the leadership.

    The prime minister spent Sunday in the federal Queensland seat of Leichhardt, held by Liberal MP Warren Entsch on a slim margin 4.6 per cent.

    But the opposition leader won’t be cowed.

    Reid was among a slew of seats likely to have fallen to the Liberals if Gillard had led Labor to the election, but after the bounce from Rudd’s return there are now high hopes John Murphy will keep the seat he holds on a margin of 2.7 per cent.

    If it’s lost it will be the first time it has been held by a Liberal politician since its creation in 1922.

    Mr Abbott went into Labor heartland on Sunday to telegraph a clear message to a resurgent Labor that he plans to take on the Rudd revival head on, rather than adopting a defensive or small target strategy.

    He’s also making a bold play for the voters of western Sydney, who recently turned to the state Liberals in an unprecedented swing.

    “It’s a message of hope, reward and opportunity: it’s what we need after six years of chaos, division and dysfunction,” Mr Abbott told them.

    The coalition pushed the button on the federal election campaign on Sunday with a multi-million advertising campaign targeting Mr Rudd, to start airing from prime time.

    After working the room with wife Margie, Mr Abbott was asked if he would prefer to go to an early or late election.

    “It’s not about me, that’s the interesting thing. It is, as far as Kevin is concerned, all about him … It should be about the people of Australia.”

  • Bridging the Gap Between Surging Population, Job Creation

    Bridging the Gap Between Surging Population, Job Creation

    14 Jul 2013

    Views: 351

    Font Size: a / A

    1208N.Ngozi-Okonjo-Iweala.jpg - 1208N.Ngozi-Okonjo-Iweala.jpg

    Ngozi Okonjo Iweala, Finance Minister

    Economists are insisting that the growing disparity between population growth rate and the present capacity of the nation’s economy for employment generation must be urgently addressed to achieve economic stability, reports Festus Akanbi

    One area that seems to have defied the impact of the modest gains in the nation’s economy over the years is youth unemployment. Individuals aspiring to political offices have always put it at the top of their priority lists while negotiating for votes during election, but the problem of unemployment has continued to stare the nation in the face.
    Perhaps, it was the World Bank’s report of May 13 that eventually roused economic affairs commentators to the latest debate on the severity of the problem of unemployment in the country.

    The Report
    The World Bank, in its report, noted that Nigeria’s annual growth rates that average over seven percent in official data during the last decade place the nation among the fastest growing economies in the world. This growth has been concentrated particularly on trade and agriculture, which would suggest substantial welfare benefits for many Nigerians.
    The report noted that improvements in social welfare indicators have been much slower than would be expected in the context of this growth. According to the World Bank report, this is because poverty reduction and job creation have not kept pace with population growth, implying social distress for an increasing number of Nigerians. Progress toward the fulfillment of many of the Millennium Development Goals has been slow, and the country ranked 153 out of 186 countries in the 2013 United Nations Human Development Index.

    The World Bank further notes that, “Job creation in Nigeria has been inadequate to keep pace with the expanding working age population. The official unemployment rate had steadily increased from 12 per cent of the working age population in 2006 to 24 per cent in 2011. Preliminary indications are that this upward trend continued in 2012.”
    According to an Abuja-based analyst, Jide Ojo, youth unemployment in Africa has become a threat to socio-economic peace and stability. “Unemployment rate in Nigeria for the year 2011 stood at 23.9 percent with youth unemployment rate at over 50 percent.

    “In comparison to other African countries, the story does not get any better. Unemployment Rate in South Africa increased to 25.20 percent in the first quarter of 2013 from 24.90 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012.
    Kenya Unemployment Rate reached an all-time high of 40.0 percent in December of 2011.
    Ghana, Nigeria’s close neighbour, had an unemployment rate of 11% in 2012. The population in the 15-24 age group had an unemployment rate of 25.6 %, twice that of the 25-44 age group and three times that of the 45-64 age group.”

    Unfavourable Policies
    Ojo believes government has part of the blame over the scourge of unemployment.
    Painting a picture of gloom in the labour sector, Ojo said, “Since 1986, when the words, “rightsizing” and “downsizing” crept into our national lexicon, we have not yet done with it. Many private enterprises have closed shops in Nigeria due to the high cost of doing business in the country. “Individual entrepreneurs find it difficult to access soft loans at affordable interest rates. Often times, the interest rate is in double digits ranging from 15 to 20 per cent and above, yet you need to provide collateral, submit business plans and meet a long list of requirements. If you are eventually successful in accessing the loans, renting or leasing an office is very expensive.

    “There is the need to interrogate many jobs referred to by the government as employment opportunities. In my opinion, there is actually under-employment. Take for instance the glamourised SURE-P and other youth employment schemes embarked on by some of the state governments where graduates of tertiary institutions are recruited as street sweepers and traffic managers only to be paid N10, 000 a month. This is pure under-employment.

    “There is also increasing casualisation by many public and private companies. Under this inhuman policy, eminently qualified personnel are recruited under conditions similar to slavery with peanuts as salaries and without any other welfare packages such as health, transport, housing allowances, leave bonus etc.

    This is one phenomenon that is being fought by the workers’ union of the Power Holding Company of Nigeria as government works towards consummating the planned privatisation of the company. A similar practice obtains in the banks, oil companies, telecommunications companies, among others.  This is tantamount to under-employment as the workers in question do not get commensurate wages for their services.”

    The Alarm
    An official confirmation of the World Bank’s alarm was the figure that emanated from the Statistician-General, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Dr. Yemi Kale, in May when the current rate of unemployment in Nigeria was put at 23.9 per cent.
    He, however, disagreed with the arguments that the growth recorded by the Nigerian economy had not in any way impacted on the lives of Nigerians by way of employment generation.

    Speaking during a recent stakeholders’ consultative forum on the production and management of Ministries, Departments and Agencies’ statistics, the NBS boss also argued that while it could be admitted that economic growth had not brought about the expected impact, it was wrong to say that no impact had been felt at all.
    Kale said: “It is impacting on the lives of Nigerians but maybe not as much or widespread as you would expect. You can’t expect a Shoprite to come and hire 2,000 people in one location in Lagos and you say it doesn’t impact on the lives of people.

    “When you hear them expanding to other states, that is clearly a sign that they are making money and expanding their businesses. When they are expanding, they hire more people; so you can’t say it’s not impacting. It is impacting and jobs are being created in this economy. But the problem with jobs is that if you are generating jobs and more people are entering the job market than you can generate, you might have a problem.”

    Another key economic manager who raised the alarm over the growing unemployment situation in the country was the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala.

    Speaking a recent public function, the minister quoted the National Bureau of Statistics as saying that, each year, about 1.8m young Nigerians enter into our labour market and we need to ensure that our economy provides jobs for them.

    “In fact, some people ask, ‘What keeps you awake at night, with regard to this economy?’ I say it is the issue of job creation. And I know this is what keeps Mr. President (Goodluck Jonathan) awake at night as well.
    “That is why we have responded to the challenge of creating jobs by trying to transform several sectors of the economy; from agriculture, where we’re expecting to create 3.5m jobs and where the progress of reaching our goal of feeding this country is already well advanced.”

    Speaker of the House of Representatives, Hon. Aminu Waziri Tambuwal, has also joined the list of public office holders uncomfortable with the present unemployment situation in the country, warning that the present unemployment rate in Nigeria is no longer intolerable.

    He spoke at a two-day international conference on Emerging Democracies in Africa: Challenges and Opportunities.” In his presentation, Tambuwal said: “Youths play a prominent role in making or marring nationhood. We know that about 46.5 percent of Nigerian youths are unemployed, while general rate of unemployment increased in 2011 to 24 percent.”
    Under normal circumstances, 10 percent unemployment rate is intolerable. Employment rates will not improve unless we are able to stabilise our polities, grow infrastructure, grow our economies and enthrone good governance. We need to engage our youths positively.”

    Taking Advantage of Huge Population
    Head Research and Intelligence, BGL Plc, Mr. Olufemi Ademola, who has presented several papers on the scourge of unemployment, told THISDAY that the key strength of the Nigerian economy is the size and the average of its working force. “The young workforce is expected to help the country’s production/developmental needs and to ultimately lead to economic growth, according to Cobb Douglas Production Function. However, the high unemployment rate, currently estimated at 23.9%, indicates that the labour resources are not being put to productive uses.
    “Apart from the effect of unemployment on production and by extension economic growth, it also has serious implication on security of lives and properties. High youth employment will lead to heightened criminal activities such as thuggery, robbery, vandalism and hooliganism. It also expands the shadow economy to the detriment of the whole economy,” he said.

    Job Potential in Agric Sector
    When the prospects of deploying the youth to a job-yielding sector like agriculture were suggested, Ademola said, “It would be such a fantastic policy to deploy the youths to sectors like agriculture.
    However, the sector needs to be made attractive to the youths. The government needs to bring ‘beauty’ back to agriculture by providing seedlings for plant, extension workers for training and advisory services to the farmers, access to financing to support mechanised farming, power to store and process produce into food products and road access to the markets. Agriculture needs to become a sophisticated industry to attract the youth.”

    States, Local Governments
    On the roles assigned to states and local government in the job drive, the BGL official explained that being the closest to the grassroots, the state and local governments have huge responsibilities in tackling youth unemployment. “With the dearth of basic infrastructure in the country, these tiers of government need to focus on development initiatives that could help employment. Required services in the communities such as refuse disposal, road construction and maintenance and community policing could be a starting point.

    “To industrialise agriculture and attracting youths to the sector, the state and local governments have significant roles to play, making land acquisitions hassle-free and providing the necessary assistance to the farmers are direct responsibilities of these tiers of government,” he said. On the argument over the standard of education in the country, Ademola said, “Although our education system may be below global standard, it is not solely responsible for the high unemployment rate.
    The recruiters always say that they “recruit for attitude and train for skills”; which means that in most cases, young recruits would need to undergo several training to be fit for the job.

    “However, at the moment, even smart graduates who are employable and trainable couldn’t find employment. Those with inherent skills or with sound business ideas do not get the needed support to develop the ideas. Hence, I think the major challenge is about that of lack of infrastructure and financial support to spur business activities, which in turn generate employment.”

    He is of the opinion that although financial institutions have roles to play in job creation, the bulk of the responsibility, according to him, rests with the government, which is saddled with the responsibility of providing good operating environment.
    He said: “The banks can assist job creation through the provision of financing to bankable projects. They will only succeed in this if they lend against the business model rather than collateral.

    “Risk management should be based on how we mitigate the risks of the businesses. Collateral may mean risk transfer through insurance (and thus boost insurance business in Nigeria) or through risk sharing through syndication rather than physical or financial assets. However, we must note the banks are also in the business to make profit; hence they make business decisions based on the operating and regulatory environment.
    “The bulk of employment generation lies with the government who should provide infrastructure to help the operating environment and the industry regulators to help boost economic activities through policies and regulations”.

    Get a new challenge Get an audio challengeGet a visual challenge Help

    <input name="recaptcha_response_field" value="manual_cha

  • ‘The Inquisition of Climate Science’ – A Book Review

    ‘The Inquisition of Climate Science’ – A Book Review

    Posted: 13 Jul 2013 03:33 PM PDT

    Galileo facing the InquisitonCristiano Banti’s 1857 painting Galileo facing the Roman Inquisition (image source)

    The Inquisition of Climate Science by James Lawrence Powell is an essential literary resource for understanding how modern climate science is conducted, and equally, for understanding how climate change denialism has evolved and continues to undermine the public interest, to its great peril.

    Powell’s title smartly preempts the spurious notion of a “fair and balanced” debate by positioning its material in a modern day version of Galileo’s “heretical” conflict with the Roman Church and its brutal enforcement program: The Holy Inquisition. It is doubly smart because, quite recently (in a debate just prior to the presidential election), a Republican candidate — in a remarkably ironic and non-self-aware moment — alluded to Galileo’s trials with the Church to paint his views (on climate matters and others) as being similar to Galileo’s situation (Galileo would ultimately be vindicated by history and by stronger scientific evidence).

    I recall that a few political pundits commented on this surprising statement after the 2012 debate, noting that Galileo was presenting a new scientific theory/model which directly opposed a rigid, theologically entrenched, human-centric, model of the universe. One could write an entire thesis on this ironic utterance, but suffice to say, that Powell, thankfully, restores this historical allusion to Galileo to its proper scientific context.

    To further preempt expected criticisms (presumably based upon the author’s qualifications to write on climate science), Powell offers his bona fides up front: he is not a climatologist or climate researcher (which he sees as an advantage in that he has “no axe to grind, no position to defend” in regards to vindicating climate science). However, Powell does hold a Ph.D. in geochemistry from MIT (a scientific discipline that has great utility for climate research in respects to the multiple chemical interactions between land, water, and, atmosphere) and was appointed to the National Science Board (a presidential advisory board) by presidents Reagan and George H.W. Bush, where he served for twelve years.

    A Brief History of Climate Change

    Powell breezily brings us up to date through some two centuries of climate science — from the early 19th Century experiments by Joseph Fourier and John Tyndall to later work by Svante Arrhenius (who would later win the Nobel prize for chemistry and who was the first to calculate the ‘climate sensitivity’ metric that was remarkably close to modern estimates) and the early-mid 20th Century work by Guy Stewart Callendar (who first calculate the rise in annual global temperature and attributed this mainly to the 150,000 million tons of coal burned since the Industrial revolution). Callendar also first calculated the CO2 parts per million (ppm) by volume for the year 1900 at 290 ppm (again, remarkably close to modern estimates).

    Powell is not afraid to note the great irony of this early climate science, most notable of which is that all of these early climate science pioneers saw a warming planet as an advantageous happening (Arrhenius, being Norwegian, perhaps had some personal rationale at work). They saw warming as beneficial to plant growth, in general (the idea that heat-trapping gases like CO2 would alter precipitation cycles and oceanic chemistry would have to wait for later, deeper, research). Trains of this (somewhat naive) thought can still be found in some modern day (fringe) climate thinking.

    This historical overview then moves quickly (but adequately) through the mid to late 20th work by Libby, Revelle, and Keeling (who gave us the first computer model/simulation of the Earth’s climate). This work became the foundation for modern climate science. And it is here that the earlier climate change naiveté gives way to more cautionary and foreboding predictions.

    And with that change in viewpoint, the author brings us to climate change (global warming) skepticism and “denialism”, which also has a history (although one much less extensive, in terms of active/organized denialism verses climate science).

    Before dissecting the relatively recent cast of climate change skeptics, Powell is quick to point out the distinction between “honest skepticism” and “denialism”. Indeed, the book uses quotes that bestow honor and duty upon the very idea of skepticism, such as:

    “If a man will begin with certainties, he shall end in doubts; but if will be content to begin with doubts, he shall end in certainties.” (Sir Francis Bacon)

    “[for the] improver of natural knowledge skepticism is the highest of duties, blind faith the one unpardonable sin.” (T.H. Huxley)

    These two quotes in particular (and there are many others) are well chosen; the first because it indicates a process of scientific discovery (that properly begins with doubt, but ends with “certainty’); the second because it highlights the “sin” of blind faith (Huxley was a revered scientific philosopher of his day), which, In the context of this current climate “debate”, can only refer to the continued holding to a belief unsupported by empirical findings.

    Climate Change Skepticism and Denialism: The Cast of Characters.

    Over the course of several chapters, Powell introduces us to the many names, organizations and artifacts behind the climate denialist movement; here are just a few notables:

    Richard Lindzen (a professor of meteorology at MIT, perhaps the one denialist with the highest academic/scientific credentials, but whose research was/is not focused on global warming causes and impacts),

    Terry Dunleavy (a non-scientist, New Zealand wine grower, and executive vice chairman of the International Climate Science Coalition [ICSC], currently the most prominent denialist organization),

    John McLean (another member of the ICSC and major critic of the IPCC reports),

    Ross McKitrick (a Ph.D. and economics professor at the U. of Ontario, coordinator of the ‘Independent Summary for Policy Makers [ISPM], a critique/rebuttal of the IPCC’s fourth assessment report, and main critic of the so-called “hockey stick” graph of millennium-long, global temperature changes published by Mann, Bradley, and Hughes),

    Dr. Arthur Robinson (a distinguished chemist, head of the Oregon institute of Science and Medicine [OISM], chief circulator of the OISM petition that boast over 30,000 signatures agreeing with the view that there is no scientific consensus on human-caused global warming/climate change),

    John Tierney (the noted New York Times columnist and director of his self-styled TierneyLab, which routinely offers Libertarian to Conservative views on numerous subjects, including denial of scientific consensus on climate change)

    Bjorn Lomborg (political scientists and statistician, author of the popular 2001 climate change denialist book The Skeptical Environmentalist, which served as a rebuttal to the third IPCC assessment and whose main theorem is that global warming is “no catastrophe”),

    Viscount (Christopher) Monckton of Brenchley (non-scientist, former adviser to former UK Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, erudite scholar of classics and frequent guest at denialist conferences; in 2007, he challenged Al Gore to a “duel” on climate change science {Gore chose not to accept the invitation to debate}; Monckton once described climate scientists as “war criminals”),

    and, Michael Crichton (the famed novelist, author of the oft-cited denialist novel State of Fear, and who before his death from lung cancer equated global warming predictions with Nazi eugenics and the Soviet-era, pseudo-scientific, “evolution” theory Lysenkoism).

    And there are, of course, many other players and organizations in the denialist game; some we would recognize (such as the Heartland Institute) and others perhaps more obscure to us (such as the George C. Marshall Institute). These are discussed in greater detail in the chapter Toxic Tanks.

    Dismantling Anthropogenic Climate Change Denialism

    In reading Powell’s book, one quickly and increasingly grows aware of how extensive (and well-financed) is the campaign to discredit mainstream climate science and the researchers who engage in it (even Richard Lindzen, an MIT professor, for example, criticizes his own colleagues, claiming that their pro-anthropogenic climate change positions are motivated by desires for recognition, research money, and academic advancement).

    But Powell is never daunted, though the forces marshaled against legitimate climate science seem quite daunting. The author systematically and skillfully addresses and dismantles the denialists’ claims, piece by piece.

    Drawing upon research and scientific opinion from members of the American Geophysical Union, the National Academy of Sciences, the National Science Foundation, the American Meteorological Society, the American Association for the Advancement of Science (publishers of the leading peer-review journal Science), NOAA, NASA (former chief climate scientist James Hansen’s research is often referenced), USGS, the American Medical Association, the European Academy of Sciences, and many, many others (noting at one point the 33 Scientific Academies and over 70 International science organizations throughout the world that accept human-induced climate change as a reality), Powell progressively tears down the wall of propaganda, misinformation, and outright lies (such as invented “research” proving that global warming is false) promulgated by the denialist movement.

    One of the prominent, recurring themes or points in the book is that of scientific consensus — both in general, and in regards to climate science specifically. Powell keenly observes a (seemingly contradictory) two-pronged attack strategy used by denialists: denying scientific consensus, on the one hand, and, on the other, sometimes admitting to a consensus but then denouncing this consensus as “false and malicious.”

    It becomes clear through reading that while climate denialism may be well-funded, it is rather less than well-organized — at least in terms of a consistent mode/method of attack. One wonders how long it will be before the public — nearly fifty percent of which believe there is scientific uncertainty and debate about the cause of global warming — will catch on to this disingenuous, say-anything-and-see-if-it-sticks strategy.

    In keeping with this main theme of consensus, the book also maintains a secondary, critical theme: that of the absurdity (and audacity) of asserting that thousands of climate scientists the world over have somehow colluded in a vast conspiracy of lies — all in an attempt to secure more research funding (or worse, as part of some nefarious agenda to destroy the “Western Way”).

    At times, Powell must resort to short history lessons in order to restore a misappropriated term or theory to its proper scientific context, as with the aforementioned Galileo example. This he does, deftly and seamlessly, with the philosophy of Lysenkoism (see the accusation by Crichton, above). Lysenko, like many modern denialists, was a non-scientist, but had powerful connections in the early Soviet government and successfully demonized the bulk of his scientist comrades who held to the “lies” of genetic inheritance and evolution by natural selection. Lysenko held to a form of Lamarkian evolution in which certain acquired (plant) traits could be inherited. The early embrace of this erroneous, anti-scientific theory lead to the near total ruin of the Soviet agricultural system. It is a cautionary, and valuable, history lesson.

    The book has many such history lessons. Throughout, one can not help but feel that one is reading (and participating in) a great historical narrative (or battle)  whose import and impact will be felt far beyond our lifetimes.

    Regarding the consistent criticism by denialists of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change, Powell establishes a clear chronology in the evolution of the four IPCC reports (spanning the years from 1990 to 2007), showing how each successive report built on the previous one, moving from somewhat tentative assertions e.g., (evidence “suggests” a possible human cause) to progressively more positive assertions (human impact on the climate is unequivocal). This he does to demonstrate that consensus develops (typically) incrementally, and to counter the surprisingly absurd view by Tierney (and Crichton) that the “mere existence of scientific consensus is prima facie evidence of its falsity.”

    Powell further notes that one criticism of the 2007 IPCC climate assessment (made by Dunleavy) was that the summary of that report (i.e., the Summary for Policy Makers, not to be confused with the denialist version: the ISPM) had “only 51 authors”. Powell rips this one wide apart; noting how relatively rare it is to find any scientific paper with so many authors. Further, that such a large number of summary authors not only reflects well the broader consensus, but typically means that any such summary assessment will be fairly conservative in it assertions — reflecting this broader input from many minds.

    Powell’s criticisms of these denialists are seldom. pointedly ad hominem; he sticks to attacking their anti-science claims and exposing their less than honest tactics and (often) non-existent research. but, of course, one must criticize credentials if those credentials are not relevant (to the science) or entirely lacking.

    Summing Up

    My only negative criticisms of the book are relatively minor, involving very specific points.

    In his thorough criticizing and debunking of the denialists’ claims, Powell unintentionally (but perhaps inevitably) leads the reader to surmise or conclude that most or all of the previous (non-climate change-related) thought and work by these thinkers is therefore dubious, if not outright false.

    For example, in detailing noted denialist Robinson’s falling out with two-time Nobel Prize winner Linus Pauling (Robinson helped establish Pauling’s research institute), Powell notes that Robinson thought Pauling’s views on vitamin C to be nonsense, then proceeds to describe Pauling’s reaction to Robinson’s work (“sloppy”), which then sets the stage for a critique of Robinson’s anti-climate change “research”. That’s fine, but Powell fails to note here that subsequent research on vitamin C has shown that large doses of the vitamin actually lead to the build-up of DNA-damaging genotoxins in cells, a finding which mostly vindicates Robinson’s criticism of Pauling’s earlier research on this matter.

    This is no doubt true as well for at least some of Richard Lindzen’s non-climate change research which most certainly made valid and worthwhile contributions to his discipline (as it is with the physicist Freeman Dyson, despite his reckless, contrarian, and provocative past statements).

    Just because a particular “skeptic” or denialist is wrong about anthropogenic climate change, does not mean he/she was/is wrong about everything (I say this with a degree of caution, because many times erroneous ideas tend to flow and flock together within the same mind, such as with the scientific-contrarian views of Fred S. Singer).

    One other thing that I would have liked to have seen more of is some discussion or treatment of the psychological motivation(s) of some of many of these denialist thinkers.

    In the chapter titled The Anatomy of Denial, Powell succinctly describes the many tactics of denialists (such as adopting the trappings of your opponents, and, accusing your opponents of doing what you are guilty of doing) and then describes, objectively, most denialists as being political Libertarians who oppose nearly all forms of government regulation (but especially of private enterprise). This he deduces from the often clearly expressed political views of these people.

    Powell also correctly notes the institutional (and mass media) bias and misrepresentation of facts resulting from fossil fuel industry funding of think tanks (comparing it effectively to the Tobacco industry’s funding of scientific denialism regarding the harmful effects of smoking), calling them “Potemkin villages of denial.”

    However, this necessary style of criticism has the effect of trickling down (to the reader) in the ascribing of similar individual motives (i.e., influenced my money, or vested interest). This is not necessarily true at all. He does not, in my reading of the book, give adequate consideration to the observed phenomenon of ego entrapment – the “in for a penny, in for a pound” motivation common to gambler who continues to play despite mounting losses — that may likely underlie much of the continued denialism in the face of new and better climate research (the same goes for similarly held beliefs in other fields).

    There are also a few ironies here. In his analytical description of denialists as seeking recognition (e.g., for being contrarian, as with Dyson), Powell is doing essentially what Lindzen did to his pro-climate change colleagues (calling them recognition seekers); he is adopting a similar motivational critique as those whom he critiques.

    And there are other such (small) ironies throughout the book.

    But these ironies are probably unavoidable when writing a counter-propaganda critique; one must run the same track as one’s opponents, albeit in reverse.

    Again, these are minor criticisms. Powell effectively and engagingly presents his case, offering a clear picture of climate science reality – distinct from the intentional fog of pseudo-skeptical anti-science.

    The Inquisition of Climate Science is a rich compendium of crucially important climate science facts and research and an invaluable critique of the (sadly) numerous climate change denialist fallacies that have contributed to the mass misleading of nearly half the US public (many of which, were unknown to this writer, who is generally well-informed on such matters).

    Overall, I strongly recommend The Inquisition of Climate Science to anyone and everyone desiring a clear and comprehensive understanding of where climate science is now and how the science got here.

    But I would go further: the book should be mandatory reading in every high school science class in the country. For, it is that generation — and its off-spring — which will live to see most of the myriad impacts of human-caused climate change and the consequences of so many wasted years of inaction due largely to oil industry-backed, denialist propaganda and misinformation.

    I will end here where the book begins — with this prescient quote from Carl Sagan:

    “We have designed a civilization based upon science and technology and at the same time have arranged things so that almost no one understand anything at all about science and technology. This is a clear prescription for disaster. We may for a while get away with the mix of ignorance and power but sooner or later in is bound to blow up in our face.”

     

    ‘The Inquisition of Climate Science’ – A Book Review was originally posted on: PlanetSave. To read more from Planetsave, join thousands of others and subscribe to our free RSS feed, follow us on Facebook (also free), follow us on Twitter, or just visit our homepage.