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New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg on Tuesday announced a USD 20 billion plan to prepare for rising sea levels and hotter summers expected as a result of climate change in the coming decades.
The ambitious proposal – which could become the benchmark for other cities dealing with climate change – could reshape Lower Manhattan’s waterfront, with the possible addition of a “Seaport City” out of the East Side.
The more than 400-page plan, which follows widespread destruction wreaked by Superstorm Sandy last year, included about 250 recommendations ranging from new floodwalls and storm barriers to upgrades of power and telecommunications infrastructures.
The plan also contained prosaic ideas, such as building up beaches and using sand dunes and plantings as natural buffers to storm surges flooding.
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While some smaller provisions of the complex, long-term plan are already underway, others would require approval or action from the state or federal government.
A report commissioned by the city and issued alongside the proposals found that over the next 40 years, the number of sweltering summer days could double or even triple, making New York City as hot by mid-century as Birmingham, Alabama, is now.
By then, the sea level surrounding New York City could also rise by 2 feet (60 cm) or more.
Bloomberg’s plan aims to ensure that the subway, transit, sewer and water, healthcare, energy and food distribution systems would continue to function for the city’s 8 million people well into the future.
New York City could “do nothing and expose ourselves to an increasing frequency of Sandy-like storms that do more and more damage,” Bloomberg said in remarks at the Brooklyn Navy Yard.
“Or we can make the investments necessary to build a stronger, more resilient New York – investments that will pay for themselves many times over in the years go to come” he said.
New York City is surrounded by 520 miles (835 km) of coastline – more than Miami, Boston, Los Angeles and San Francisco combined – and even a small rise in sea level would endanger lower-lying homes and businesses.
Sandy killed more than 100 people in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut, knocked out power to millions and cost New York City an estimated $19 billion in damages and lost economic activity. Bloomberg said a storm of Sandy’s strength would cost nearly five times that amount if it hit the city in the middle of this century because of rising sea levels.
The implementation of the plan would be “an important step toward improved resilience for the City,” said Mark Way, head of Sustainability Americas Swiss Re, whose catastrophe model was the basis for the city’s analysis.
FLOODWALLS, DUNES AND TIDAL BARRIERS
In addition to new walls, dune systems and tidal barriers, the plan envisaged  USD 1.2 billion in loans and grants to help owners make buildings more resilient to floods and proposed changes to the building code.
The plan also proposed the creation of new rules for how soon utility companies must restore power after a natural disaster. And the city would devise a plan to provide fuel when supplies are disrupted and to diversify energy sources.
Some elements of the plan are likely to be implemented this year, but others would stretch out in to decades – well beyond the 200 days that Bloomberg will remain in office.
“This is a call to the next administration and the next administration after that,” said Chris Ward, former executive director of the Port Authority of New York & New Jersey.
To fund the plan the city would draw on money that has already been allocated for capital improvements and on post-Sandy federal relief funds approved by the US Congress.
But the funds may fall at least USD 4.5 billion short, and the city will have to delay, scale back or eliminate some proposals if it can’t fill the gap, the plan’s authors said.
Some thought the plan was more expensive than needed.
Jeroen Aerts, a professor of environmental risk management at the VU University in Amsterdam and an adviser to New York City who last month co-authored a study on New York’s flood defense options, had expected the mayor to propose a plan estimated at $11.6 billion.
“I think Bloomberg chose a more expensive solution because he wants to add value to the city. He wants to involve developers and private companies” Aerts said.

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NEW YORK—Superstorm Sandy, which flooded much of the New York City coastline, causing billions in damage, was a perfect storm: enormous size, a rare westward hook, and hitting at exactly high tide.

It is impossible to know if the stars will align for New York City to see another perfect storm exactly like the first, but the Bloomberg Administration nonetheless believes a destructive weather pattern will continue due to climate change, and also that things are likely to get worse.

At City Hall on Monday, June 10, Seth Pinsky, director of the Special Initiative for Rebuilding and Resiliency, described what would have happened if the storm had hit nine hours earlier. The northern part of Queens, especially LaGuardia Airport and Willets Point, as well as Hunts Point in the Bronx, would have taken on six to 12 feet of water.

Hunts Point houses the largest food distribution center in the world, and La Guardia Airport saw just over 25 million passengers in 2011, the last year data was available.

“If it had hit nine hours earlier, we would have been dealing with a much more significant disruption to the food supply that serves 60 percent of the restaurants in New York City,” said Deputy Mayor Cas Holloway.

The storm didn’t hit Hunts Point, and instead the city saw severe flooding in the southern boroughs, but it was a lesson for Holloway and Pinsky. The men are tasked with devising a plan to protect the city from future storms.

“Our focus should not be on preparing for the next Sandy, preparing for a storm that will do precisely the same thing in precisely the same places, in precisely the same way,” said Holloway. “In fact, there are all kinds of different [variables] that could impact much different areas of the city.”

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Related discussion:Is global warming natural or man-made? 

As the world around us changes, the city plans to be more prepared. City data estimates the 100-year floodplain will encompass 801,000 residents by 2050. During Superstorm Sandy, which used FEMA maps from 1983, only 218,000 residents were in the 100-year flood plain—and much of the flooding in Brooklyn far exceeded that mark.

Heavy Rains

With little green space to absorb heavy rains, spring downpours already present problems for the city. As effects from climate change take place, the Bloomberg administration said they will have to prepare for more consistent heavy rains.

Dr. Radley Horton, Climate Scientist at Columbia Earth Institute, said the Northeast has seen a 75 percent increase in heavy rainfall events since 1958.

“That positive trend is consistent with what we expect as the planet warms,” Dr. Horton said. “A warmer planet can hold more moisture. That moisture tends to fall out in very heavy events.”

Even if the heavy rain falls out of the city, as it did with hurricanes Irene and Lee, it could present problems for New York City’s drinking water. Heavy rain causes sediment to fall into the reservoirs, an event called turbidity.

“Once your water is cloudy, you can’t use that part of the supply until the sediment settles and the water is clear,” Holloway said. “We had portions of the water supply that were offline for months [following Irene].”

Holloway said the more often extreme weather events occur, the more challenging it will be for the city to deal with.

New York City prides itself on not treating its water, something that may change with the effects of climate change.

Heat Wave

Much of the focus in the climate change debate has been on the rising seas, but rising temperatures are expected to present another problem for the city.

Heatwaves, characterized by three or more days of 90 degree-plus weather, are not uncommon in the city, but the frequency is expected to intensify. City data shows a recent average of 18 days of 90-degree-plus weather, but by 2050, that total is expected to jump to 57, the current level for Birmingham, Alabama.

Dr. Horton says while the jumps may not look like much, tiny changes add up.

“A small shift in average conditions, whether it is sea level or temperature, can have profound impact on the frequency of extreme events,” Dr. Horton said. “So a small amount of sea level rise is enough to mean a much greater frequency of coastal flooding events because you are elevating the baseline, even if storms don’t get any stronger.”

Mayor Bloomberg will present his suggestions for how the city will address climate change issues on Tuesday.