A house more divided than ever

 

But this record is misleading because NSW didn’t swing as hard against Labor as Queensland did. Labor lost four seats in NSW and nine in Queensland.

The addition of the two NSW independents Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott effectively reduced Labor’s losses in Tony Abbott’s home state to just two seats.

But the addition of Queensland independent Bob Katter to the Coalition column increases Labor’s effective losses in Kevin Rudd’s home state to 10 seats.

If the mining states are counted together — Queensland, Western Australia and Northern Territory — the parliament of 47 seats is blue, with 34 Coalition plus one independent to Labor’s 12.

The red zone is found in the southern states of Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania. Out of 55 seats, Labor has 34 plus one Green and one independent, to the Coalition’s 19.

The mining and southern states are in essence mirrors of one another, with NSW caught between the two trends.

The Coalition is concerned about its structural weakness in Victoria, where Labor has been the dominant party since the 1998 election.

As long as the Liberal leadership team is sourced from NSW and Western Australia, and the Nationals leadership team comes from Queensland, the Coalition will struggle in the southern states, according to conservative sources.

The dilemma for Labor is how to tend to its southern base, while not enraging the mining states any further.

There is no obvious issue that can unify the two constituencies.

Consider the mining tax, which Windsor and Oakeshott support. How will that go down in the mining states if NSW is seen to be the main beneficiary of Gillard’s new focus on regional spending?