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  • Sharp rise in sea levels to Australia’s north: report

    Sharp rise in sea levels to Australia’s north: report

    July 3, 2012 – 10:30AM

    Leading Australian scientists have firmed their view on the rate of sea-level rise, in the latest snapshot of this climate change problem.

    Over the past 50 years, the global average rise of 1.9 millimetres a year measured in tide gauges has been confirmed in satellite measurements, raising confidence in predictions.

    “We are very close to the final answer on this,” said oceanographer John Hunter, of the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Co-operative Research Centre in Hobart. “Once we do that we can do our modelling for the future much better.”

    In the ACECRC’s Report Card: Sea Level Rise 2012 released today, a dramatic short-term rise was identified north of Australia, where waters rose at around 10mm each year over the past 18 years.

    But Dr Hunter cautioned that this was likely to relate to El Nino events, rather than long term sea-level trends.

    He said the Australian coasts faced a rise of about the global average rate through the 21st century – meaning sea level would be around 0.38 metres higher in 2090 than it was 100 years earlier.

    Thermal expansion – the greater space occupied by hotter sea water – has contributed about 45 per cent of the total rise since 1972, according to the report card.

    Melting glaciers and ice caps added another 40 per cent, with most of the remainder coming from ice sheets.

    The report card warns that as a rule of thumb, a 0.1m rise in sea level increased the frequency of flooding by about a factor of three.

    “This effect is multiplicative so that even a relatively modest increase in mean sea level of 0.5 m will increase the frequency of flooding by a factor of roughly 300,” it said.

    “This means that an event which presently only happens on average once every 100 years (the ‘100-year return event’) will happen several times a year after sea level has risen by 0.5 m.”

    Dr Hunter said with new data submissions to the International Panel on Climate Change set to close within weeks, the report card represented the state of play on sea level rise as it was likely to be in the IPCC’s 2014 report.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/sharp-rise-in-sea-levels-to-australias-north-report-20120703-21e6n.html#ixzz1zXK1bDP6

    July 3, 2012 – 10:30AM

    Leading Australian scientists have firmed their view on the rate of sea-level rise, in the latest snapshot of this climate change problem.

    Over the past 50 years, the global average rise of 1.9 millimetres a year measured in tide gauges has been confirmed in satellite measurements, raising confidence in predictions.

    “We are very close to the final answer on this,” said oceanographer John Hunter, of the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Co-operative Research Centre in Hobart. “Once we do that we can do our modelling for the future much better.”

    In the ACECRC’s Report Card: Sea Level Rise 2012 released today, a dramatic short-term rise was identified north of Australia, where waters rose at around 10mm each year over the past 18 years.

    But Dr Hunter cautioned that this was likely to relate to El Nino events, rather than long term sea-level trends.

    He said the Australian coasts faced a rise of about the global average rate through the 21st century – meaning sea level would be around 0.38 metres higher in 2090 than it was 100 years earlier.

    Thermal expansion – the greater space occupied by hotter sea water – has contributed about 45 per cent of the total rise since 1972, according to the report card.

    Melting glaciers and ice caps added another 40 per cent, with most of the remainder coming from ice sheets.

    The report card warns that as a rule of thumb, a 0.1m rise in sea level increased the frequency of flooding by about a factor of three.

    “This effect is multiplicative so that even a relatively modest increase in mean sea level of 0.5 m will increase the frequency of flooding by a factor of roughly 300,” it said.

    “This means that an event which presently only happens on average once every 100 years (the ‘100-year return event’) will happen several times a year after sea level has risen by 0.5 m.”

    Dr Hunter said with new data submissions to the International Panel on Climate Change set to close within weeks, the report card represented the state of play on sea level rise as it was likely to be in the IPCC’s 2014 report.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/sharp-rise-in-sea-levels-to-australias-north-report-20120703-21e6n.html#ixzz1zXK1bDP6

  • Northeast India flood toll rises to 79

    More severe weather events on a global scale.

    Northeast India flood toll rises to 79

    Updated: 19:05, Monday July 2, 2012

    Monsoon rains in northeastern India have left at least than 79 people dead and forced 2.2 million to leave their homes.

    Assam state, which borders Bhutan and Bangladesh, has been worst hit with the massive Brahmaputra river breaching its banks, while extensive flooding has also hit the states of Arunachal Pradesh and Manipur.

    The Assam state government said 26 of 27 districts had endured flash floods as heavy rains destroyed thousands of flimsy homes, blocked roads and swamped fields.

    ‘So far 79 people have died in separate incidents of boat capsize or have drowned while trying to escape the gushing waters and also in landslides,’ state authorities said in a statement on Monday.

    The statement added that an estimated 2.2 million people had been displaced, with thousands of homes wrecked and more than 500,000 people being sheltered in relief camps.

    ‘We have opened makeshift relief camps for the displaced, while many more were forced to take shelter on raised platforms and in tarpaulin tents,’ Assam’s health minister Himanta Biswa Sarma told AFP.

    Officials said more than 70 per cent of the Kaziranga National Park, famous for its tigers, one-horned rhinos and elephants, was underwater.

    ‘The animals are trying to move to safer areas,’ park warden Sanjib Bora said.

    Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and the Congress party president Sonia Gandhi visited Assam on Monday to take an aerial survey and inspect relief work.

    In the adjoining states of Arunachal Pradesh and Manipur, monsoon rains caused widespread flooding but there were no reported deaths.

    The monsoon, which sweeps across the sub-continent from June to September, is crucial for the region’s farmers but also claims casualties from flooding every year.

  • Peak oil and the lost message of the carbon tax

    Peak oil and the lost message of the carbon tax
    On Line opinion
    Whether or not one believes in human-induced climate change, with the Carbon Tax’s introduction on Sunday, it is worth remembering the fundamental reasons for its conception. The Carbon Tax debate, which has been memorable for its hyperbole, but not
    See all stories on this topic »

  • Opposition leader Tony Abbott will have difficulty repealing the carbon tax, says Independent MP Andrew Wilkie

    Opposition leader Tony Abbott will have difficulty repealing the carbon tax, says Independent MP Andrew Wilkie

    Polls update

    It’s grim reading for Labor in the polls this morning as well, as voter backlash against the carbon tax grows.

    UPDATE: INDEPENDENT MP Andrew Wilkie says it will become increasingly difficult for Tony Abbott to abolish the carbon tax as Australians get used to it.

    It comes as a group of big businesses publicly declared their support for the controversial tax.

    Mr Wilkie says the coalition is not a certainty to win the next federal election but, if it does, it will face a battle to deliver on its promise to repeal the controversial tax.

    ”If the coalition win the election, and that’s not a certainty, (it depends) whether or not they control the Senate,” Mr Wilkie told reporters in Hobart.

    ”I think (it’s) a bit like the GST – highly controversial but, once people have realised the sky hasn’t fallen in, they see the sense in the reform, they live with it a while, I think it becomes increasingly difficult for Tony Abbott to unwind it in the future.”

    Mr Wilkie supported the carbon price and says many in his Tasmanian electorate of Denison, where he is riding high in a number of polls, are behind him.

    On the first business day of the carbon tax, a a consortium of almost 300 big businesses, including Westpac, AGL, Unilever and GE, have signed a joint statement backing the tax and accused the coalition of creating uncertainty by promising to scrap it in government.

    But the Australia Chamber of Commerce and Industry (ACCI) says small and middle-ranking companies stand to lose and the consortium’s view is not mainstream.

    ”The tax had little consequence for energy providers who would pass it on while banks ”had no skin in this game”, ACCI director of economics and industry policy Greg Evans told AAP.

    ”Our members are overwhelmingly price takers in the marketplace and are not in the position of being able to unilaterally set prices and simply pass those on down the chain.”

    Both the Labor government and the coalition have begun a two-week blitz on the carbon tax, with Opposition leader Tony Abbott embarked on an intensive campaign to discredit the levy and Prime Minister Julia Gillard taking to the airwaves.

    By 9.30am, Ms Gillard had already given seven radio and television interviews.

    During an interview on ABC Darwin, a caller known only as “Wazza” gave the PM some timely advice on lowering the power bill – only use the beer fridge on weekends.

    But the Prime Minister had to admit that wouldn’t be much help to her because The Lodge didn’t come with a beer fridge.

    “I don’t think we really have a beer fridge, we’re not drinkers of that much beer,” Julia Gillard said of herself and partner Tim Mathieson.

    Mr Abbott spent the morning in Victoria’s second largest city, Geelong, to talk about the impacts of the tax on the area.

    He said a federal coalition government would call on the powers of the consumer watchdog to ensure prices fall once it followed through on a promise to scrap the carbon tax.

    He said the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) would ensure there was fair competition under a government he led.

    Tony Abbott

    Tony Abbott
    Opposition Leader Tony Abbott at Incitec Pivot Limited Geelong Operations in Melbourne today. Picture: Natalie Evans
    Source: news.com.au

    ”We can ensure that there is fair competition in the market place and if businesses don’t respond to reductions in their costs, well there isn’t fair competition,” he said.

    ”The ACCC will have the job of ensuring people aren’t being ripped off, when the carbon tax goes off, and costs are appropriately reduced.”

    He said the last thing people wanted was a reverse tariff and urged business to support the coalition at the next election if they want certainty.

    Mr Abbott said millions of households would miss out on the government’s compensation, and said the coalition, if elected, would reduce emissions in other ways.

    “We’re going to get emissions down by spending money from savings in the budget, going to the market and buying abatement through our emissions reductions fund,” he told ABC Radio.

    “We will have tax cuts without a carbon tax and we will have pension benefits without a carbon tax,” he said

    Ms Gillard said people could make up their own minds “not based on the claims of politicians but from by what they can see in their own lives”.

    “What people are going to see is tax cuts … and people are going to see that the claims like the coal industry is going to shut down is all untrue,” she told the Seven Network today.

    Ms Gillard acknowledged there would be some flow-on effects from about 300 big polluters paying $23 a tonne on carbon, but said tax cuts would benefit seven million people.

    A Nielsen poll published in Fairfax newspapers found opposition to the carbon tax had risen three points to 62 per cent.

    Just over half of those surveyed thought they would be worse off as a result of the tax.

    According to the latest Newspoll, Labor’s primary vote in Queensland is down to just 22 per cent.

    The results mean federal Labor MPs in the state are facing a swing against them of 10 per cent, which would unseat every Labor MP, The Australian reported.

    But Ms Gillard said implementing a price on carbon wasn’t about the polls.

    “This is about what is right for our nation’s future,” she said.

    “We have had some very divisive debates in the past – the GST, universal superannuation, Medicare … and when the dust has settled and people have had the opportunity to judge it all for themselves they recognised it was the right thing for the nation.”

    Ms Gillard said Abbott would create a “fiddle” and only pretend to scrap the carbon tax if he wins power.

    But Mr Abbott said the Coalition would get carbon emissions down without saddling the coal and gas industries with extra costs.

    Geelong carbon tax

    Geelong carbon tax
    A colourful character voices their carbon tax stance in Geelong today. Picture: Natalie Evans
    Source: news.com.au

    Mr Abbott is today campaigning hard to convince people it will be all financial pain for no environmental gain.

    He is warning it will kill off the gas and oil industries.

    “The whole point of a carbon tax is to use less coal, less gas, less oil,” Mr Abbott told ABC Radio.

    The Coalition would do things differently, he said.

    “We want to get emissions down without loading up the coal and the gas industries with these kind of additional cost imposts,” he said.

    “We’re going to get emissions down by spending money from savings in the budget, going to the market and buying abatement through our emissions reductions fund.”

    Mr Abbott said millions of households would miss out on the Government’s compensation.

    “We will have tax cuts without a carbon tax and we will have pension benefits without a carbon tax,” he said.

    The Australian Industry Group said a survey of 621 manufacturing and construction businesses found 42 per cent would try to put up prices immediately.

    Ms Gillard said making companies pay for the pollution they put in the air would create the cheapest incentive to transform the economy to clean energy sources such as solar, wind, geothermal and natural gas.

    “If Mr Abbott ever becomes prime minister he won’t take carbon pricing away. He’ll engage in a little fiddle, a little fudge to kind of pretend, but carbon pricing will still be here,” she said yesterday.

    She said the Opposition had wrongly said the carbon tax would mean a roast dinner would cost $100.

    Climate Change Minister Greg Combet said Mr Abbott could not and would not repeal the carbon pricing scheme.

    Mr Combet is confident the Government will be able to win back the Australian public’s support once it has “lived” the carbon tax.

    “A lot of claims have been made that are quite notorious – towns falling off the edge of the country and industries destroyed and hundreds of thousands of jobs gone and unimaginable price increases – now it can be tested against reality,” Mr Combet told ABC Radio today.

    Mr Combet said Australians were practical people who would judge the tax changes over the next twelve months of “lived experience”.

    The Federal Government is aiming to cut carbon emissions by five per cent by 2020, with the carbon tax shifting to an emissions trading scheme in 2015.

    Regulators across the country have have priced the impact of the carbon tax as on average $3.30 a week, but the Government will be providing an average of $10.10 a week in tax relief, Mr Combet said.

    “We’re taking a lot of the revenue from that paid by the largest polluters and using it to implement a significant income tax reform that will treble the tax free threshold from $6000 to $18,200 liberating one million people from having to pay tax and file a tax return,” he said.

    “As the message gets through and we keep arguing our case, I’m sure that we can win people’s support back.”

    Julia Gillard

    Julia Gillard
    Prime Minister Julia Gillard visits Ivanhoe Children’s Community Cooperative on the first day of the carbon tax. Picture: Tim Carrafa
    Source: Herald Sun

    Double whammy hit for families

    Labor kicks up heels as Libs cry foul

  • Asylum seeker numbers rising fast

    Asylum seeker numbers rising fast

    Ben Doherty SOUTH ASIA CORRESPONDENT

    July 2, 2012 – 7:26PM

    A SURGE in the number of Sri Lankan asylum seekers reaching Australia by boat over the past three weeks – treble the number that arrived over all of last year – has seen arrival numbers surpass 2009, when the country was gripped by brutal civil war.

    Already, over the first half of this year, 1346 asylum seekers claiming to have come from Sri Lanka have arrived in Australian territory, more than six times the 211 irregular maritime arrivals in all of last year.

    And nearly half of all this year’s arrivals have come in the last three weeks. Department of Immigration figures provided to the Herald on June 12 said the number of Sri Lankan asylum seekers for the calendar year was 708.

    Previously, the number of Sri Lankans seeking asylum in Australia by boat peaked at 736 in 2009, the year government forces ended the country’s 27-year civil war in a ferocious crackdown.

    In 2010, 536 Sri Lankans arrived by boat claiming asylum.

    Most of the Sri Lankan arrivals are Tamils, an ethnic minority concentrated in the north of the country.

    The majority leave directly from Sri Lanka, but an increasing number are coming via southern India, where tens of thousands of Tamils live in refugee camps, and an established network of people smugglers operates.

    In recent weeks, too, Pakistani and Afghan asylum seekers have been caught in Sri Lanka, using it as a transit country to come to Australia.

    And the rush of asylum seekers attempting the dangerous eastward crossing of the Indian Ocean shows no sign of dimming.

    Three more groups of Sri Lankan asylum seekers have been arrested over the past four days trying to flee the country for Australia.

    Before dawn on Monday morning, six people were arrested in Kalkudah, on Sri Lanka’s west coast. They were waiting to board a boat bound for Australia.
    Police allege the suspects, aged between 18 and 34, were from the nearby Valachchenai area. They were expected to appear in court overnight Australia time.

    On Sunday, five men, mostly from the Tamil-dominated north of Sri Lanka, were arrested by police in Kataragama, in the island’s far south-east.

    Police were tipped off that the group was staying at a local hostel while they waited on a promised boat. They told police they were waiting for their “travel agent” who would take them to Australia.

    Meanwhile, on Friday, the Sri Lankan Navy reported that its ships stopped a multiday fishing trawler bound for Australia off the south-western coast of the island, near Negombo.

    Only nine people were on board at the time, but, the Navy said, the boat was planning to pick up more passengers from other places.

    The trawler was loaded with food, drinking water, gas bottles and personal items of those on board.

    The nine arrested, and their trawler, were handed over to the Criminal Investigation Department.

    Communications Director for Sri Lanka’s External Affairs Ministry, Sarath Dissanayake said the Sri Lankan and Australian governments were in regular communication over the increasing number of Sri Lankan asylum seekers.
    “The Sri Lankan High Commission in Australia has been informed of this issue by its government. We are in constant touch with our officials there,” he told local media.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/asylum-seeker-numbers-rising-fast-20120702-21d3f.html#ixzz1zSfoVDyv

  • Carbon tax talk about the cash, not the climate

    Carbon tax talk about the cash, not the climate

    Updated July 02, 2012 08:59:48

    So – it’s happened. Australia has put a price on carbon emissions, and depending on who you are, you’ll be marking this first business day of costlier CO2 by doing anything from panic-stockpiling distilled water and beef jerky to ignoring the event completely.

    Tony Abbott will be “crossing the length and breadth of Australia” – whether he will be doing this in the orthodox Abbott style, on a bike, or projecting a suitably carbon-defiant vibe by engaging a fleet of Hummers, none can yet say – to empathise loudly with widget-makers and fizzy-drink vendors, and speak sombrely of their imminent pauperisation.

    Julia Gillard will be reminding constituents, especially the poorer ones, of what this is all about – extra cash, right now, in their bank accounts.

    They couldn’t be further apart, as Mr Abbott sought to reassure Sunday newspaper readers yesterday with his cut-out-and-keep, signed voucher entitling the bearer – assuming a happy electoral event for the Opposition Leader sometime in the next year or so – to a full abolition of the carbon tax. Thus opens a new era of political push and shove.

    But before we plough into it, it’s worth one last look at what’s gone before for these parties. Only by carbon-dating their attitudes can the true madness of this debate be appreciated.

    Let’s start the tale in 1997, when the new Howard government’s environment minister Robert Hill went to the Kyoto summit, and was borne home triumphantly on the shoulders of colleagues when he negotiated for Australia a deal that allowed us actually to raise our emissions over time – one of just three countries so favoured under the agreement.

    Said John Howard, in the Financial Review on December 12 that year, while delightedly ruffling the hair of the then-boyish Hill (okay, I made that up):

    “It’s an outcome that will protect tens of thousands of Australian jobs, and it’s also an outcome that will put the world on a firmer path towards controlling greenhouse gas emissions.”

    Elsewhere, he described the outcome as “an absolutely stunning diplomatic success”.

    Labor, then led by Kim Beazley, griped that Australia had got off a bit too lightly under the Kyoto deal.

    Four years later, Mr Howard had soured considerably on Kyoto, and he and his cabinet determined not to ratify the thing. His determination to repudiate the document in this way went undimmed to the end of his prime ministership, although he did undertake to stick to the Kyoto targets, and in 2007 promised to introduce an emissions trading scheme in order to price carbon appropriately.

    This is what Kevin Rudd promised at the 2007 election too, although Mr Rudd – in a demonstration that the Labor Party had long outgrown its initial snippiness about the protocol itself – promised that he would enthusiastically sign and ratify it if elected, possibly attended by a youth orchestra and troupes of dancing penguins, and that this would definitively prove his modernity and in-touch-ness, as opposed to grouchy old John Howard.

    And indeed, upon his election, Mr Rudd did sign the Kyoto Protocol. He also made immediate moves to develop the carbon emissions trading scheme he had promised, and spoke at length about the environmental urgency of such an enterprise.

    There was no doubt that Mr Rudd’s motivation was environmental; long lectures were delivered about the fate of the Great Barrier Reef and other key Australian treasures; the spread of disease through northern Australia and the likely deaths of the very young and the very old thanks to the ravages of extreme temperatures, wildfire, flood and super-hurricanes were also mentioned in dispatches.

    The Coalition, meanwhile, flopped about miserably in a puddle of indecision; should it support an emissions trading scheme, as it had promised to do at the 2007 election? Three different answers to this question were recommended by the three different leaders with whom the Liberal Party experimented over the course of just two years. Brendan “Maybe” Nelson was supplanted by Malcolm “Yes” Turnbull, who in turn was ousted by Tony “No” Abbott, who leads the party still and remains very firmly of the negative view.

    His election – by one vote – to the Liberal leadership in November 2009 derailed the agreement his predecessor Mr Turnbull had forged with the Rudd government to support its emissions trading scheme.

    Within months, Mr Rudd too had deferred the scheme, and a few months after that, his own party dismantled his prime ministership.

    And thus, not even three years after the 2007 election – at which both parties had promised emissions trading schemes – we encountered the 2010 election, in which neither did.

    The new Prime Minister, Julia Gillard, promised a sensitive ear, no carbon tax, and a special convention of ordinary Australians to get together and discuss the whole thing like grownups. The Opposition Leader, Tony Abbott, offered Herculean tree-plantings and payments to select industries to clean themselves up.

    And there we were, until some months after the election, at which time Ms Gillard, having been reconfirmed as prime minister by the breadth of a hummingbird’s proboscis, announced she would be introducing a temporary carbon tax followed by a full-fledged emissions trading scheme.

    I will not here insult the reader’s intelligence by pointing out the political difficulties engendered by Ms Gillard’s change of heart. Obviously, they were profound, and continue to be so.

    What is interesting is that the carbon pricing scheme that started yesterday – the haggard survivor of Australian politics’ dizzying, hallucinatory “yes-no-yes-no” routine on this issue for the best part of the last 15 years – no longer seems to have very much to do with the environment.

    The ads don’t mention it, and neither – as a general rule – does the Prime Minister, who tends to pitch her “Clean Energy Future” package more as a bold, principled, possibly-towering economic reform, leavened with extra money for the cash-strapped.

    Much mention was made of the cash payments in Question Time last week, as the Prime Minister and her colleagues staggered gratefully toward yesterday’s implementation date.

    But not so much talk, any more, of the polar bears or the biodiversity of the reef, or the owners of beachside property whose sandy promontories face the relentless jaws of rising sea levels.

    That sort of talk is so two governments ago. And talk changes pretty fast around here.

    Annabel Crabb is the ABC’s chief online political writer. View her full profile here.

    Topics:emissions-trading, environment, climate-change, pollution, air-pollution, government-and-politics, federal-government, tax

    First posted July 02, 2012 08:14:17