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  • Big swings against Kevin Rudd in key marginals

     

    In Labor-held seats where the Greens’ vote is low, support is dramatically shifting from sitting Labor MPs to the Coalition, removing hopes of Labor surviving on preferences and boosting Tony Abbott as the prospective prime minister.

    Most voters are dissatisfied with Mr Rudd as Prime Minister in the five seats polled by The Australian, with a high of 61 per cent in western Sydney seat of Lindsay where the Opposition Leader is ahead as the preferred prime minister.

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    Julia Gillard is the preferred Labor leader in Lindsay, although Mr Rudd is ahead as preferred prime minister and Labor leader in the three marginal seats polled in his home state of Queensland.

    As the NSW state Labor government reels from the weekend loss of the western Sydney seat of Penrith after a swing of 25 per cent, the key federal seat of Lindsay, which the Liberals won from Labor in 1996 and lost in 2007 and which incorporates much of Penrith, has suffered a 12 per cent swing against it on a two-party-preferred basis.

    According to a special Newspoll survey of three marginal Labor-held seats in Queensland and two Labor-held marginals in NSW, Labor could lose 10 Queensland seats held by margins of less than 6 per cent and at least four or five seats in NSW. Senior Labor MPs fear the dispute with the mining industry over the resources super-profits tax, community concerns about illegal boat arrivals and disenchantment with Mr Rudd as Prime Minister mean the ALP will lose the election.

    The Newspoll survey, covering the Labor seats of Dawson, Flynn and Longman in Queensland and the NSW seats of Lindsay, in Sydney’s west, and Page, on the north coast, shows Labor’s primary vote is even lower in some marginals than the 35 per cent it was in the national Newspoll survey taken last weekend. The NSW seat of Page is Labor’s only bright spot in the marginal seat survey because the ALP primary vote is level with the Coalition on 38 per cent but is pushed to a two-party-preferred figure of 55 per cent to the Coalition’s 45 per cent because of Greens’ preferences.

    In the three Queensland marginal seats, the ALP’s primary vote is 34 per cent compared with the Coalition’s 45 per cent, giving the Coalition an election-winning two-party-preferred lead of eight points there, 54 to 46 per cent.

    At the 2007 election, Labor’s two-party-preferred vote in the three Queensland marginal seats was 52.1 per cent compared with the Coalition’s 47.9 per cent.

    In Lindsay, which includes the state seat of Penrith, Labor’s primary vote is 34 per cent, compared with 51.4 per cent at the 2007 election. Labor’s two-party-preferred vote is down from 56 per cent at the election to 44 per cent.

    The Coalition’s support has reversed, going from a primary vote of 38 per cent and a two-party-preferred vote of 43.6 per cent at the 2007 election to 44 per cent and 56 per cent respectively.

    In Page, where the Greens’ primary vote has jumped from 8 per cent at the election to 14 per cent last weekend, the Labor Party is even with the Coalition’s primary vote of 38 per cent and ahead on the two-party preferred vote 55 to 45 per cent.

    There is more dissatisfaction with Mr Rudd than satisfaction in every marginal seat surveyed, with dissatisfaction at 61 per cent in Lindsay compared with satisfaction of 33 per cent.

    In the Queensland marginals, satisfaction is just 30 per cent and dissatisfaction is 59 per cent. In Page, satisfaction with Mr Rudd is at 36 per cent and dissatisfaction is at 55 per cent.

    In Lindsay Mr Abbott is preferred Prime Minister at 44 per cent to Mr Rudd’s 40 per cent and the Deputy Prime Minister is preferred Labor leader by 45 per cent to Mr Rudd’s 36 per cent.

    In Queensland Mr Rudd is six points ahead of Mr Abbott as preferred Prime Minister, 45 to 39 per cent, and in front of Ms Gillard as preferred Labor leader 48 to 34 per cent. In Page, Mr Rudd is up six points on Ms Gillard and 16 points over Mr Abbott.

    Compared with the national Newspoll survey taken last weekend, in which Labor had a two-party-preferred lead over the Coalition of 52 to 48 per cent because of the 15 per cent primary vote for the Greens, the marginal polling in Queensland and western Sydney is much worse for Labor.

    Yesterday, Greens senator Sarah Hanson-Young indicated it would be a mistake for the government to assume Greens preferences would flow to Labor with the same generosity as at the last election, when 80 per cent of Greens preferences went to Labor.

    She said some recent polling put the ratio at 60:40. “Who (voters) put as their second preference, that’s totally up to them. And I wouldn’t be surprised if the distribution changes at this next poll.”

  • Inquiry needed to assess impact of a changing climate on NSW beaches

    Media Release                                                  
    Inquiry needed to assess impact of a changing climate on NSW’s beaches
     
    The Greens will seek to send legislation that will grant property
    owners the right to build, without development approval, temporary sea
    walls on beaches as protection against rising sea levels to a
    Parliamentary Inquiry this week.
     
    “If this Bill goes ahead it will begin the fortification of our
    coastlines, with rock walls encroaching on to our most treasured beaches
    in the not-too-distant future,” said NSW Greens MLC Ian Cohen.
     
    “The implications of this legislation as well as the issues it’s trying
    to address are enormous and it mustn’t be rushed through the Parliament.
    Minister Sartor hasn’t even released guidelines with the Bill.
     
    “The Greens will be seeking to send the Coastal Protection and Other
    Legislation Bill to a Parliamentary Committee so that the full impacts
    of climate change and coastal inundation on NSW coastal communities and
    coastal ecosystems can be investigated. Recommendations can then also be
    made as to the best whole-of-government response.
     
    “A broader investigation into rising sea levels is urgently needed. The
    State Government is clearly failing to grasp the severity a changing
    climate is already having on our coastline.
     
    “Sea level rise and coastal inundation is occurring right now from
    Kingscliff in Northern NSW to the South Coast of NSW. Our office is
    being contacted by people who are literally watching the beaches in
    front of their properties disappear.
     
    “Planning for rising sea levels is one of the toughest things any
    government anywhere will have to do.
     
    “We need a whole-of-government approach, not one that pits neighbour
    against neighbour and beachfront dwellers against the rest of the
    community. Yet Minister Sartor’s preference is to rush a band aid
    solution through the Parliament by the end of the week.
     
     “The State Government is simply delaying the inevitable – that is
    implementing a policy of stage, planned retreat for communities affected
    by rising sea levels.
     
     “The short-term vision of this current State Government is on show
    once again. This legislation should be called the ‘Coastal Private
    Property Protection’ Bill due to its prioritisation of private property
    protection over public beaches,” said Mr Cohen.
     
    Further Information: Cate Faehrmann 02 9230 3305 or 0412 207 043
     
    Cate Faehrmann
    Adviser
    Greens MLC Ian Cohen
    NSW Parliament
    Macquarie St
    SYDNEY NSW 2000
    p +61 2 9230 3305 m +61 412 207 043
    —

  • Gas found after N Korean nuclear fusion claims

     

    Xenon is produced during the nuclear fission process.

    The readings last month were eight times more than normal.

    Nuclear fusion promises limitless energy but can also be used to make hydrogen bombs.

    Tags: nuclear-issues, government-and-politics, world-politics, north-korea, south-korea

  • Kristine Keneally headed for a rout

     

    Kristina Keneally

    Has Kristina Keneally failed as NSW Premier?

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    “The result … is, of course, disappointing but it is one we expected,” the Premier said.

    “The people of [Ms Paluzzano’s] electorate were … angry they had to be put into this situation where they had to go back to the polls. I knew when I took on this job it was absolutely tough … but you know, I’m also very tough.”

    Despite Ms Keneally’s claims, internal Liberal polling had Labor’s primary vote in Penrith at 33 per cent after the resignation of Ms Paluzzano, with support falling to 24 per cent as ministers David Campbell, Ian Macdonald and Graham West resigned.

    And Ms Keneally’s “net favourability” rating (the difference between her approval and disapproval rating) also fell from 20 to 15 in just three weeks. Focus group comments revealed voters for the first time were starting to blame her for the rot.

    “She is probably a nice person, but not in charge; things just keep happening around her and all we get’s more excuses,” one voter told researchers. Another said: “[Ms Keneally] doesn’t really seem to be in charge of her party and is more and more distracted by the antics of the rest of [Labor]. How can you run a state like that!”

    While Ms Keneally yesterday tried to play down the implications for the state poll in March, some within Labor fear it could be reduced to 15 to 20 seats in the 93-member Legislative Assembly.

    One Labor MP said yesterday the problem was that “people think we’re crooks”.

    65 comments on this story

  • Kevin Rudd’s health adviser quits

    It’s a case of every man/woman to save themselves or go down with the SS Kevin
     
    Neville Gillmore.
     
    Kevin Rudd health adviser quits

    • From: AAP
    • June 20, 2010 9:18AM
     
     

     Minister Kevin Rudd’s top mental health adviser has quit, accusing the government of a lack of vision and commitment to a problem that affects millions of Australians.

    National Advisory Council on Mental Health chairman John Mendoza tendered his resignation on Friday in a letter to Health Minister Nicola Roxon and council members.

    In the letter, obtained by Fairfax newspapers, he said he had regarded his appointment as the “most important public service responsibility of my life” and felt a “deep sense of disappointment” in quitting.

    “It is now abundantly clear that there is no vision or commitment from the Rudd government to mental health,” he wrote. “The Rudd government is publicly claiming credit for the increased investment in mental health when almost all of this is a consequence of the work of the Howard government.”

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    Professor Mendoza’s resignation came as leaked figures revealed the expansion of the Better Access program, which provides rebates under Medicare for services such as general practitioner mental health plans and visits to psychologists.

    Most experts on the advisory council believe the program is sucking money from where it is needed _ on services for growing numbers of mentally unwell young people – and that it is shutting out men, the poor and rural Australians.

    Professor Mendoza described the program as “a mess” that should be overhauled into taxpayer-funded teams of psychologists and other professionals, such as mental health nurses and social workers.

    A spokesman for Ms Roxon thanked Professor Mendoza for his service and agreed that more needed to be done. “However, the minister rejects Mr Mendoza’s assertion that the government has no commitment to mental health.”

    AAP

  • Rudd told to sort mining tax or face axe

     

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    The warning came as Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner yesterday launched another broadside at the mining industry, describing it as being led by “the billionaire liberation front”.

    The remarks – coupled with Mr Rudd’s direct warning last week to industry leaders that Labor had “long memories” – show the Government has little intention of backing down.

    “Do not be misled by the distorted advertising campaign, and do not be misled about projects that will be abandoned when they were fictitious from the start,” Mr Tanner said.

    “This is about Australia’s long-term sustainable growth. It is about ensuring that the prosperity that flows from our natural wealth that is in the ground can be distributed for the benefit of all Australians, across all sectors of the economy, all regions and all participants in our society.”

    At a Labor conference in Melbourne, Mr Tanner also played up the Government’s policy credentials, highlighting the dumping of WorkChoices.

    Mr Richardson also noted Mr Rudd’s policy credentials. He applauded the PM for sticking to his commitment to introduce a parental leave policy last week, but questioned whether it was enough to help at the polls.

    The comments pre-empt tomorrow’s Newspoll, which has been flagged by some Labor MPs as a critical factor as to whether Mr Rudd should remain as leader. Some insiders believe a significant slide could act as a trigger for a leadership spill.

    Despite the disastrous turn, installing Julia Gillard wouldn’t necessary change the party’s fortunes, Mr Richardson said.

    “It certainly wouldn’t be worse,” he said. “In 2007, (Rudd) was the best campaigner I ever saw, but something happened to that bloke and they are all trying to find him again.

    “If they do, then there’s a chance of getting up, but lately that hasn’t been happening.”

    Mr Rudd was also saved by the fact a coup was also logistically difficult to organise once parliament rose.

    Although many MPs are calling for Ms Gillard to be installed, while the Deputy Leader herself still had faith Mr Rudd could change Labor’s fortunes, Mr Richardson said she was unlikely to put her hand up for the job.

    “She’s being loyal,” he said.

    25 comments on this story