In Labor-held seats where the Greens’ vote is low, support is dramatically shifting from sitting Labor MPs to the Coalition, removing hopes of Labor surviving on preferences and boosting Tony Abbott as the prospective prime minister.
Most voters are dissatisfied with Mr Rudd as Prime Minister in the five seats polled by The Australian, with a high of 61 per cent in western Sydney seat of Lindsay where the Opposition Leader is ahead as the preferred prime minister.
Julia Gillard is the preferred Labor leader in Lindsay, although Mr Rudd is ahead as preferred prime minister and Labor leader in the three marginal seats polled in his home state of Queensland.
As the NSW state Labor government reels from the weekend loss of the western Sydney seat of Penrith after a swing of 25 per cent, the key federal seat of Lindsay, which the Liberals won from Labor in 1996 and lost in 2007 and which incorporates much of Penrith, has suffered a 12 per cent swing against it on a two-party-preferred basis.
According to a special Newspoll survey of three marginal Labor-held seats in Queensland and two Labor-held marginals in NSW, Labor could lose 10 Queensland seats held by margins of less than 6 per cent and at least four or five seats in NSW. Senior Labor MPs fear the dispute with the mining industry over the resources super-profits tax, community concerns about illegal boat arrivals and disenchantment with Mr Rudd as Prime Minister mean the ALP will lose the election.
The Newspoll survey, covering the Labor seats of Dawson, Flynn and Longman in Queensland and the NSW seats of Lindsay, in Sydney’s west, and Page, on the north coast, shows Labor’s primary vote is even lower in some marginals than the 35 per cent it was in the national Newspoll survey taken last weekend. The NSW seat of Page is Labor’s only bright spot in the marginal seat survey because the ALP primary vote is level with the Coalition on 38 per cent but is pushed to a two-party-preferred figure of 55 per cent to the Coalition’s 45 per cent because of Greens’ preferences.
In the three Queensland marginal seats, the ALP’s primary vote is 34 per cent compared with the Coalition’s 45 per cent, giving the Coalition an election-winning two-party-preferred lead of eight points there, 54 to 46 per cent.
At the 2007 election, Labor’s two-party-preferred vote in the three Queensland marginal seats was 52.1 per cent compared with the Coalition’s 47.9 per cent.
In Lindsay, which includes the state seat of Penrith, Labor’s primary vote is 34 per cent, compared with 51.4 per cent at the 2007 election. Labor’s two-party-preferred vote is down from 56 per cent at the election to 44 per cent.
The Coalition’s support has reversed, going from a primary vote of 38 per cent and a two-party-preferred vote of 43.6 per cent at the 2007 election to 44 per cent and 56 per cent respectively.
In Page, where the Greens’ primary vote has jumped from 8 per cent at the election to 14 per cent last weekend, the Labor Party is even with the Coalition’s primary vote of 38 per cent and ahead on the two-party preferred vote 55 to 45 per cent.
There is more dissatisfaction with Mr Rudd than satisfaction in every marginal seat surveyed, with dissatisfaction at 61 per cent in Lindsay compared with satisfaction of 33 per cent.
In the Queensland marginals, satisfaction is just 30 per cent and dissatisfaction is 59 per cent. In Page, satisfaction with Mr Rudd is at 36 per cent and dissatisfaction is at 55 per cent.
In Lindsay Mr Abbott is preferred Prime Minister at 44 per cent to Mr Rudd’s 40 per cent and the Deputy Prime Minister is preferred Labor leader by 45 per cent to Mr Rudd’s 36 per cent.
In Queensland Mr Rudd is six points ahead of Mr Abbott as preferred Prime Minister, 45 to 39 per cent, and in front of Ms Gillard as preferred Labor leader 48 to 34 per cent. In Page, Mr Rudd is up six points on Ms Gillard and 16 points over Mr Abbott.
Compared with the national Newspoll survey taken last weekend, in which Labor had a two-party-preferred lead over the Coalition of 52 to 48 per cent because of the 15 per cent primary vote for the Greens, the marginal polling in Queensland and western Sydney is much worse for Labor.
Yesterday, Greens senator Sarah Hanson-Young indicated it would be a mistake for the government to assume Greens preferences would flow to Labor with the same generosity as at the last election, when 80 per cent of Greens preferences went to Labor.
She said some recent polling put the ratio at 60:40. “Who (voters) put as their second preference, that’s totally up to them. And I wouldn’t be surprised if the distribution changes at this next poll.”