All that the past two months has shown is that the flaws within Labor run deeper than Rudd. The inability to defend itself and land blows on the opposition, and silly policies such as the citizens’ assembly, demonstrate this.
Gillard never had a honeymoon as leader. The external and internal polling showed her accession to the leadership returned the government to a competitive position, nothing more.
The focus group research showed Gillard had no capital or goodwill with the electorate. Voters were uncomfortable with how Rudd was treated and Gillard would be cut no slack.
It will forever be argued whether she should have rushed to the election. Sages counselled that Gillard should have waited until at least October, if not early December.
Another two weeks of Parliament, appearances at football finals and generally just acting as leader for three months would have given Gillard some gravitas and goodwill. Promising Rudd foreign affairs would also have been a good idea.
Instead, she called a snap election believing all the fundamentals were right and a sound but unspectacular campaign would suffice.
Two weeks in and the polls show Labor is back to where it was when Rudd was dumped. Consequently, Labor has resorted to the same shock tactic Rudd used as he tried to restore his fortunes – warning that Abbott will be prime minister.
It didn’t work then, but a Labor strategist said at the weekend that now Abbott was the poll favourite and the election was three weeks away, Labor’s last hope was that the message would have added resonance.
When Abbott knifed Malcolm Turnbull for the Liberal leadership in December, he was acutely aware of his colourful past and asked more in hope than reality that he be judged ”from this point on”.
Even ”from this point on”, Abbott has offered plenty of material. About faces on climate change, an abandonment of principle on industrial relations, a change of heart on paid parental leave and breaking a promise not to increase taxes spring to mind.
But he should brace for a do-or-die effort against him in the next three weeks, including the reawakening of events from well before he became leader.
Abbott’s campaign thus far has been a disciplined and small-target affair, little more than a series of sober and often copycat policy announcements while largely avoiding blunders.
One of the key differences between the two campaigns has been the impact of the immediate former leaders. While Rudd, as the strategist said, ”has caused us massive damage”, Turnbull has been positioning himself nicely.
Turnbull has spent a lot of the campaign helping fellow holders of marginal seats. He has swept through Queensland and Victoria and has more trips planned. Turnbull is not only doing his bit to help the Liberals win, he is also doing what he failed to do last time, cultivating the backbench.
Turnbull did not reverse his decision to retire because he wanted to sit on the backbench. Should Abbott win and then stumble like Rudd, then in this merry-go-round era of leadership changes, Turnbull will be ready.