Swan in trouble: state Newspoll analysis


Swan in trouble: state Newspoll analysis

AAPUpdated April 2, 2013, 1:01 pm



A state-by-state breakdown of Newspolls shows Wayne Swan s seat of Lilley may fall to the coalition.
AAP © Enlarge photo

Deputy Prime Minister Wayne Swan would be the highest-profile casualty as the coalition cruises to victory at the September 14 federal election, according to analysis of recent polling.

A state-by-state breakdown of Newspolls for the first three months of 2013 shows Labor would lose five seats in NSW, three in Victoria, four in Queensland, but retain what it holds in both Western Australia and South Australia.

The biggest scalp for Opposition Leader Tony Abbott would be Mr Swan, whose Brisbane seat of Lilley would fall in the four per cent swing in Queensland, the figures published by The Australian on Tuesday show.

Newspoll has the coalition vote increasing from a 2010 election two-party vote of 55.1 per cent to 59 per cent in Queensland, meaning that apart from Lilley, the government would lose the seats of Capricornia, Petrie and Moreton.

That result would be far better than the wipeout previously predicted in the Sunshine State, where Labor now has eight MPs. Trade Minister Craig Emerson would hold his southern Brisbane seat of Rankin by a slim 1.5 per cent margin.

Assistant Treasurer David Bradbury, who holds one of the four key battleground seats in western Sydney, would be the most senior of the NSW MPs lost to Labor.

Including the vote for the ACT, the coalition would increase its lead over Labor in NSW from the 2010 figure of 50.5 per cent to 54 per cent.

Western Sydney seats Lindsay, Banks, Greenway and Reid would fall to the coalition if the vote was repeated in September, as well as Robertson on Central Coast.

Labor would still win the two-party preferred vote in Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s home state of Victoria, according to the analysis.

But its margin would be cut from the 2010 vote of 55.3 per cent to 51 per cent, with the swing costing Labor the marginal seats of La Trobe, Deakin and Corangamite.
Overall, if the Newspoll result was repeated at the September election the coalition would likely have a majority of about 25 seats in the new parliament.

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