2013 Australian Electoral Pendulum
The electoral pendulum set out below shows the margins for all electorates at the next commonwealth election due in the second half of 2013. Seats are ordered from most vulnerable to safest. The margins have been adjusted to take account of redistributions in Victoria and South Australia.
The Victorian redistribution is now complete and the margins shown have been estimated by Stephen Barber of the Commonwealth Parliamentary Library. The South Australian estimates are my calculations based on draft electoral boundaries released in August. Only three objections have been lodged to the draft boundaries so little change is expected when the final boundaries are released later this year.
The Nielsen poll published earlier this week had the Coalition on 58% of the two-party preferred vote. Assuming the swing is uniform, the 7.9% swing to the Coalition shown by the poll would see the Labor Party lose 35 of its 72 seats, half of the party caucus. Labor would be left with just 37 seats, fewer than the 49 seats retained by Labor on the defeat of the Keating government in 1996, and nearly as bad as the 1975 result when Labor held just 36 seats in a smaller 127 seat Parliament.
The new South Australian boundaries will not be legally in force until gazetted at the end of this year. Any election held before the end of this year would be on the old electoral boundaries and the pendulum would need to be adjusted to use the old South Australian margins. (I analysed the draft South Australian boundaries at this post.)
In October the Electoral Commissioner will issue a determination on whether the entitlement of any state to House seats under Section 24 of the Constitution has changed. This determination will be based on Australia Bureau of Statistics population figures. The trend in population figures indicates no change in state entitlement so no further redistribution will take place in this term. A scheduled redistribution of the ACT in early 2013 will be deferred as it is within the last 12 months of the parliamentary term.
The pendulum includes National WA MP Tony Crook on the cross-benches as he has stated he is not part of the Coalition. The margins for Batman and Grayndler are shown with a two-party preferred margin despite the Greens finishing second at the 2010 election. The Liberal Party has been moving to a position of directing preferences against the Greens at the next election, a move that would make nonsense of any Labor-Green margin. The same comment would apply to the Green margin versus Labor shown for the seat of Melbourne.
One caveat on the pendulum is that the huge difference in state results at the 2010 election makes a uniform swing unlikely. (I broke the 2010 result down by state in this post.) Labor is more vulnerable in Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania where the Coalition had very poor results in 2010, and especially in New South Wales where Labor won a majority of seats with a minority of the two-party preferred results. Despite endless commentary about the state of Labor’s polling in Western Australia and Queensland, the next election will not be decided in those states.
A new version of the pendulum will be published once more accurate estimates for the new South Australian electorates are available. The AEC will not publish its estimates of new margins until shortly before the election.
2013 Australian Electoral Pendulum
Labor (72) Corangamite (VIC) ALP 0.3%
Deakin (VIC) ALP 0.6%
Greenway (NSW) ALP 0.9%
Robertson (NSW) ALP 1.0%
Lindsay (NSW) ALP 1.1%
Moreton (QLD) ALP 1.1%
Banks (NSW) ALP 1.5%
La Trobe (VIC) ALP 1.7%
Petrie (QLD) ALP 2.5%
Reid (NSW) ALP 2.7%
Lilley (QLD) ALP 3.2%
Brand (WA) ALP 3.3%
Capricornia (QLD) ALP 3.7%
Lingiari (NT) ALP 3.7%
Page (NSW) ALP 4.2%
Eden-Monaro (NSW) ALP 4.2%
Blair (QLD) ALP 4.2%
Parramatta (NSW) ALP 4.4%
Dobell (NSW) ALP 5.1%
Kingsford Smith (NSW) ALP 5.2%
Rankin (QLD) ALP 5.4%
Fremantle (WA) ALP 5.7%
Chisholm (VIC) ALP 5.8%
Oxley (QLD) ALP 5.8%
Perth (WA) ALP 5.9%
Hindmarsh (SA) ALP 6.1%
Bass (TAS) ALP 6.7%
Werriwa (NSW) ALP 6.8%
Barton (NSW) ALP 6.9%
Richmond (NSW) ALP 7.0%
Braddon (TAS) ALP 7.5%
Adelaide (SA) ALP 7.5%
Bruce (VIC) ALP 7.7%
McMahon (NSW) ALP 7.8%
Melbourne Ports (VIC) ALP 7.9%
Griffith (QLD) ALP 8.5%
Fowler (NSW) ALP 8.8%
Watson (NSW) ALP 9.1%
Canberra (ACT) ALP 9.2%
McEwen (VIC) ALP 9.2%
Bendigo (VIC) ALP 9.4%
Isaacs (VIC) ALP 10.4%
Wakefield (SA) ALP 10.5%
Franklin (TAS) ALP 10.8%
Jagajaga (VIC) ALP 11.1%
Ballarat (VIC) ALP 11.7%
Makin (SA) ALP 12.0%
Throsby (NSW) ALP 12.1%
Blaxland (NSW) ALP 12.2%
Lyons (TAS) ALP 12.3%
Chifley (NSW) ALP 12.3%
Hunter (NSW) ALP 12.5%
Newcastle (NSW) ALP 12.5%
Charlton (NSW) ALP 12.7%
Shortland (NSW) ALP 12.9%
Cunningham (NSW) ALP 13.2%
Corio (VIC) ALP 13.5%
Hotham (VIC) ALP 14.0%
Holt (VIC) ALP 14.0%
Fraser (ACT) ALP 14.2%
Kingston (SA) ALP 14.5%
Sydney (NSW) ALP 17.1%
Maribyrnong (VIC) ALP 17.5%
Calwell (VIC) ALP 20.0%
Grayndler (NSW) ALP 20.6%
Scullin (VIC) ALP 20.6%
Port Adelaide (SA) ALP 21.0%
Lalor (VIC) ALP 22.1%
Wills (VIC) ALP 23.5%
Gorton (VIC) ALP 23.6%
Gellibrand (VIC) ALP 24.1%
Batman (VIC) ALP 24.8%
Coalition (72) Boothby (SA) LIB 0.6%
Hasluck (WA) LIB 0.6%
Aston (VIC) LIB 0.7%
Dunkley (VIC) LIB 1.1%
Brisbane (QLD) LNP 1.1%
Macquarie (NSW) LIB 1.3%
Forde (QLD) LNP 1.6%
Solomon (NT) CLP 1.8%
Longman (QLD) LNP 1.9%
Casey (VIC) LIB 1.9%
Herbert (QLD) LNP 2.2%
Canning (WA) LIB 2.2%
Dawson (QLD) LNP 2.4%
Swan (WA) LIB 2.5%
Bonner (QLD) LNP 2.8%
Macarthur (NSW) LIB 3.0%
Bennelong (NSW) LIB 3.1%
Flynn (QLD) LNP 3.6%
Sturt (SA) LIB 3.6%
Fisher (QLD) LNP 4.1%
McMillan (VIC) LIB 4.2%
Leichhardt (QLD) LNP 4.6%
Dickson (QLD) LNP 5.1%
Hughes (NSW) LIB 5.2%
Gilmore (NSW) LIB 5.3%
Paterson (NSW) LIB 5.3%
Higgins (VIC) LIB 5.4%
Stirling (WA) LIB 5.6%
Wannon (VIC) LIB 5.7%
Goldstein (VIC) LIB 6.0%
Cowan (WA) LIB 6.3%
Fairfax (QLD) LNP 7.0%
Ryan (QLD) LNP 7.2%
Mayo (SA) LIB 7.3%
Kooyong (VIC) LIB 7.5%
Menzies (VIC) LIB 8.7%
Hume (NSW) LIB 8.7%
Forrest (WA) LIB 8.7%
Pearce (WA) LIB 8.9%
Indi (VIC) LIB 9.0%
Flinders (VIC) LIB 9.1%
Cowper (NSW) NAT 9.3%
Wright (QLD) LNP 10.2%
McPherson (QLD) LNP 10.3%
Hinkler (QLD) LNP 10.4%
Bowman (QLD) LNP 10.4%
Calare (NSW) NAT 10.7%
Grey (SA) LIB 11.2%
Moore (WA) LIB 11.2%
Gippsland (VIC) NAT 11.5%
Tangney (WA) LIB 12.3%
Cook (NSW) LIB 12.7%
Barker (SA) LIB 13.0%
Warringah (NSW) LIB 13.1%
Durack (WA) LIB 13.7%
North Sydney (NSW) LIB 14.1%
Fadden (QLD) LNP 14.2%
Farrer (NSW) LIB 14.5%
Wentworth (NSW) LIB 14.9%
Wide Bay (QLD) LNP 15.6%
Mackellar (NSW) LIB 15.7%
Curtin (WA) LIB 16.2%
Berowra (NSW) LIB 16.2%
Mitchell (NSW) LIB 17.2%
Moncrieff (QLD) LNP 17.5%
Riverina (NSW) NAT 18.2%
Bradfield (NSW) LIB 18.2%
Groom (QLD) LNP 18.5%
Parkes (NSW) NAT 18.9%
Murray (VIC) LIB 19.6%
Maranoa (QLD) LNP 22.9%
Mallee (VIC) NAT 23.3%
Others (IND 4, GRN 1, NAT WA 1) Denison (TAS) IND 1.2% v ALP
O’Connor (WA) NAT WA 3.6% v LIB
Melbourne (VIC) GRN 6.0% v ALP
Lyne (NSW) IND 12.7% v NAT
Kennedy (QLD) IND 18.3% v LNP
New England (NSW) IND 21.5% v NAT
Posted by Antony Green on September 14, 2011 at 10:28 AM in Federal Politics and Governments, Federal Redistributions | Permalink