March 12, 2013
2013 WA Election – Update Tuesday 12 March
Today has seen the number of undecided seats fall from five to four, and seen a flood of updates for the Legislative Council.
With 84.8% counted in Belmont, the Liberal Party’s Glenys Godfrey is now 318 votes ahead and certain of victory. Ms Godfrey wins the seat at her third attempt, gaining a seat that has never previously been won by the Liberal Party and had been held for more than two decades by former Labor Leader Eric Ripper.
Liberal Jaimee Motion continues to maintain a narrow lead in Collie-Preston, ending the day 84 votes ahead with 84.5% of the vote counted. It will be hard for sitting Labor MP Mick Murray to turn around that lead with not many votes left to count, but he did famously win by just 34 votes in 2001. Another day of counting may make the result clearer.
In Midland, Labor’s Michelle Roberts continues to lead, at the end of counting 88 votes ahead with 86.4% counted. Ms Roberts has maintained her lead with all categories of votes so far and would be favoured to maintain her lead.
The result in Eyre is still up for grabs. With 77.7% counted, Natonal Colin de Grussa leads by 55 votess over sittng Liberal MP Graham Jacobs.
In Kimberley, with four candidates lying between 18.1% and 27.4%, the Electoral Commission has been undertaking a preliminary distribution of preferences to try and determine who will be the final two candidates in the contest. At this state it looks to be between Labor and Liberal candidates, with Labor favoured to win on Green preferences. Details of the preference count will be released on Wednesday morning.
In the Legislative Counil, further counting has firmed up the prospect of National Colin Holt in his battle with Family First in South West Region. Today’s counting firmed the National Party vote, ensuring that Holt now stays well clear of Family First’s Bev Custer in the race for the final seat.
On current counting my Legislatve Council calculator predicts tht the Shooters and Fishers party will win a seat in Mining and Pastoral region at the expense of the Nationals. This has come about because the National total is now just short of two quotas, and the calculator assumes all votes are ticket votes with the fixed sequence of party preferences. However, once you allow for some ballot papers being below the line votes, it seems highly unlikely that the Shooters and Fishers can prevent the second National candidate being elected on a dift of below the line preferences. A Shooters and Fishers victory in Mining and Pastoral is unlikely, though the party now looks certain of winning a seat on Labor and Green preferences in Agricultural region.
The closest contest at the moment appears to be for the final seat in South Metropolitan Region. As I suggested would happen in my post on Sunday, the Labor vote has risen during the count, and for part of the day Labor won the final seat ahead of sitting Green MLC Lynn MacLaren. If Labor’s vote continues to nudge up, MacLaren’s could yet be elected on Liberal and Shooters and Fishers preferences, though equally Labor could be elected on Green preferences It now seems less likely MacLaren will win on Labor preferences
Posted by Antony Green on March 12, 2013 at 11:08 PM in Western Australia Elections and Politics | Permalink