homes at sea rise risk

“Other scientists say the sea could rise metres in the next century. The director of the Fenner School of Environment and Society at

the Australian national University, Professor Will Steffen, told the inquiry there was huge uncertainty among scientists about the rate

of sea level rise and ‘the science … has progressed significantly since the publication of the IPCC (report) last year’. The observed

rate of sea-level rise is tracking at or near the upper limits of the envelope of IPCC projections. With no further changes in the rate of

sea level rise, this would suggest that sea levels in 2100 would be 0.75m to one metre above the 2000 levels. However, there was

further uncertainty over the loss of polar ice sheets, particularly Greenland, which was melting rapidly. The concern is that a

threshold may soon be passed beyond which we’ll be committed to losing most or all of the Greenland ice sheet. This would lead to

6.0m of sea level rise (with enormous implications for Australia), although the time frame required to lose this amount of ice is

highly uncertain, ranging from a century to a millennium or more.”

“Insurance Australia Group actuary Tony Coleman said preliminary estimates of the value of property, homes, businesses and public

infrastructure vulnerable to sea inundation ranged from $50 billion to $150 billion. The figure depends upon the extent of sea-level

rise assumed and the effectiveness or otherwise of potential mitigation measures.”