Coffs Harbour CBD (Fiona Poole – ABC Local)

By 2031 some parts of the Mid North Coast will see population growth ahead of the national average while smaller towns set back from the coast could face a population decline.

Demographer Mark McCrindle says that the region is forecast to grow by 19% with Port Macquarie leading with an expected 20% growth followed by 13% growth for Coffs Harbour.

The NSW Department of Planning and Infrastructure (DoPI) published statistics in September that predicted there would be a slight drop in the Macleay’s population.

However Mr McCrindle does not see any evidence for that.

“We can’t understand why the forecast is that Kempsey will decline its population by 2.3% as we approach 2031.”

“In fact it’s grown by 3.2% in the last 5 years and normally those trend lines continue on, so our forecast would be that it will have a population increase by 2031,” he told ABC Radio.

The expected population growth is based on three factors; natural increase (births minus deaths), interstate migration and the net overseas migration.

“Kempsey is doing very well form a natural increase perspective, and it’s also doing very well from intrastate migration, people moving from other areas.”

“That’s why the forecast has raised so many eyebrows,” Mr McCrindle said.

ABS and DoPI are forecasting that the Bellingen region will increase by 3.3%, Nambucca by 12%.

“As for the town of Dorrigo it’s in one of those tricky spots where being inland with an aging population and low birth rates it’s probably going to struggle to hit some growth,” Mr McCrindle said.

“When areas have slow growth they have a benefit in that house prices don’t go up and they become more affordable.”

“So the slow growth of Dorrigo might actually lead to more people making a tree change, but on current trend its probably going to have very slow growth if any growth at all.”

Coffs Harbour is expected to reach double digit growth, which puts it ahead of the state and national average.

“About 71,000 is the current population and it should get to more than 80,000 by 2031,” Mr McCrindle said.

Japanese firm proposes belt of solar panels around moon

Climate Progress

The Japanese construction and engineering company Shimizu has released a plan to ring the moon’s equator with a 248-mile wide solar panel belt that would, in effect, turn the moon into a minor sun — supplementing solar energy to a planet in need.

As if taken directly from a science-fiction novel, the introduction of the report reads, “a shift from economical use of limited resources to the unlimited use of clean energy is the ultimate dream of all mankind.”

And it is of sci-fi proportions indeed — according to Shimuzu, the belt, which would beam energy back to earth via antennas 12 miles in diameter, could generate the colossal sum of 13,000 terrawatts of energy. The U.S. generated 4,500 terawatts in 2011.

Germany is the world leader in solar power, with 32.3 gigawatts installed as of December 2012. In the U.S. solar power growth is on pace for a record year, with 4,400 megawatts of photovoltaic (PV) and over 900 megawatts of concentrating solar power (CSP) projected to come online this year. Currently five countries have reached the 10-gigawatt milestone for cumulative PV capacity — Germany, Italy, China, Japan, and the US.

CREDIT: SHIMIZU CORP

Shimuzu proposes building most of the solar belt with robots and using lunar resources as much as possible in construction process. For example, the company says water can be produced by reducing lunar soil with hydrogen imported from earth, and that, “bricks, glass fibers and other structural materials can be produced by solar-heat treatments.” The company proposes to start building the Luna Ring in 2035.

Shimuzu is known for shooting for the moon with projects, and has previously come up with concepts including an environmental island, a pyramid city, and a space hotel. Regarding the solar belt, the company says that, “virtually inexhaustible, nonpolluting solar energy is the ultimate source of green energy,” that could fulfill all of our energy needs.

Not everyone is convinced. Professor Werner Hofer, director of the Stephenson Institute for Renewable Energy at the University of Liverpool, told The Independent that, “Doing this in space is not a good idea because it is fantastically expensive and you probably never recover the energy you have to invest.”

Beaming power back to earth from space is a complex, expensive, and mostly untested realm. Other challenges to the project include maintenance and upkeep, a hostile space environment that degrades panels faster, and the on-the-ground costs of building the infrastructure required to transmit the energy.

Back on earth, solar energy is soaring in Japan even without harnessing the moon’s infinite resources. Recent projections show Japan’s solar power market growing 350 percent from 2012 to 2013.

According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Japan is projected to add more solar energy generation than any other country this year. The Japanese government has a target of installing 28 gigawatts of solar by 2020.

In a small step backward for mankind, however, last month Japan announced it was slashing its 2020 greenhouse gas emissions reductions target from 25 percent to just 3.8 percent based on 2005 figures. The country’s previous commitment, set in 2009, sought to reduce emissions 25 percent by 2020 from 1990 levels. Officials blamed the lowered target on the Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011 that caused the country to temporarily abandon all nuclear power. This is also part of the reason why solar power is growing so rapidly in Japan.

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