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  • Why the UN’s coming fifth report on global warming is already making waves.

    A coal power plant in Grevenbroich, Germany.

    Emissions pour out of coal-fired power plants in Germay. Could the United Nation’s forthcoming report on climate change lead to stricter regulation of such carbon pollution?

    Photograph from Mauritius Images/Alamy

    Brian Clark Howard

    National Geographic

    Published August 20, 2013

    A leaked early version of a major forthcoming report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the United Nations-affiliated panel of scientists that is often cited as the world’s top authority on global warming, is grabbing headlines this week.

    The New York Times reported on what it called the report’s “near certainty” that humans are responsible for the rising temperatures of recent decades and its warning that sea levels could rise by more than three feet by the end of the century.

    The draft IPCC report also dismisses a recent slowdown in global warming, attributing it to short-term factors. (See “Rising Seas” in National Geographic magazine.)

    The leaked document is only a draft, and still has to be approved by the several hundred scientist-members of the IPCC, who are scheduled to meet in Stockholm next month.

    IPCC spokesperson Jonathan Lynn said in a statement Monday that it “is likely to change in response to comments from governments received in recent weeks and will also be considered by governments and scientists at a four-day approval session at the end of September. It is therefore premature and could be misleading to attempt to draw conclusions from it.”

    But experts say the contents of the draft report are unlikely to change substantially, based on the IPCC’s past efforts. Whether it changes much or not, all this week’s attention on the leaked version speaks to the huge role the once-every-five-years-or-so report has come to play among scientists, the public, and governments around the world.

    What Is the IPCC, Anyway?

    The IPCC has met to produce a sweeping report on the state of global warming science every five or six years since the group was founded in 1988.

    This latest iteration will be called the Fifth Assessment Report, or AR5. The IPCC does not conduct any original research, but instead works to review, analyze, and summarize existing climate science research from around the world.

    Jim Kossin, a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) research scientist at the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, is one of many scientists helping to write the IPCC report on a voluntary basis.

    “Each [IPCC] report is important in that it is updating all the recent research since the last one,” said Kossin.

    Kossin added that other scientific groups release their own assessments on climate science, particularly at the national level, but that the IPCC reports tend to be the most important, globally speaking.

    Many governments look to IPCC reports when charting policy relating to climate, from the local level all the way up to international bodies like the European Union. For example, New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s administration has relied in part on IPCC reports in developing risk planning for the city and in promoting hybrid taxis, green roofs, and other sustainability measures.

    The new report could impact laws and regulations on matters ranging from carbon taxes in Europe to funding for renewable energy in the United States to transportation planning in China.

    A Nobel Prize

    The IPCC came in for even more attention in 2007, when it was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize jointly with Al Gore. The Nobel Committee cited “their efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowledge about man-made climate change, and to lay the foundations for the measures that are needed to counteract such change.”

    But the award was loudly criticized by global warming skeptics.

    Senator James Inhofe (R-OK), a longtime global warming denier who has called man-made climate change “the greatest scientific scandal of our generation,” criticized the award and asked the Justice Department to investigate prominent IPCC scientists for possible academic misconduct (they were never charged).

    David Henderson, a former chief economist of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), criticized the IPCC in the Wall Street Journal in October 2007. Henderson argued scientists invited to the IPCC are a self-selected group that includes only those who already accept human-caused climate change.

    “The process is flawed, and this puts in doubt the accepted basis of official climate policies,” he wrote.

    Skeptics Take Aim at IPCC

    Criticism of the IPCC reached fever pitch after the group’s 2007 report, when it was revealed that a prediction about the melting of glaciers in the Himalaya was not derived from peer-reviewed science. That information was later removed.

    The IPCC was also embroiled in criticism by climate skeptics in late 2009 after emails from scientists at East Anglia University were leaked to the press, in a very public flap that came to be known as “Climategate.” Bloggers thought they saw a “smoking gun” in an email referring to “hiding the decline”—which they speculated meant scientists had been covering up falling temperatures.

    Actually, the scientist who sent the email explained that he had been referring to a specific problem with some recent tree-ring data. He said measured temperatures had continued to rise, showing 2009 to be one of the warmest years ever recorded.

    Although some IPCC critics in the media had alleged that the leaked e-mails undermined mainstream climate science, the scientists successfully countered that their words had been read out of context, and that the conclusions of IPCC’s reports were unaffected.

    An open letter from around that time to U.S. federal agencies by more than 250 scientists confirmed the community’s support for the IPCC’s report.

    “None of the handful of mis-statements (out of hundreds and hundreds of unchallenged statements) remotely undermines the conclusion that ‘warming of the climate system is unequivocal,’” the letter read, “and that most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-twentieth century is very likely due to observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.”

    Kossin said he and his fellow AR5 report authors are working very hard to be as thorough and objective as possible in their review of existing climate science, to reduce the possibility of mistakes and reduce chances for future criticisms.

    Kossin voices a line similar to the one the scientists took in the open letter. “There’s always going to be skeptics in the world,” he said. “They tend to be a very small minority, but they are very vocal so they appear larger than they are.”

    He added, “The vast majority of people who know about atmospheric science know the scientific evidence suggests that skeptics are wrong.”

    Follow Brian Clark Howard on Twitter and Google+.

  • Methane rule rewrite wanted

    Methane rule rewrite wanted
    Advertiser

    CHARLESTON, W.Va. — A state board decided Wednesday to ask lawmakers to rewrite a key portion of Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin’s mine safety bill, after concluding a mandated change in methane monitoring requirements was not feasible.

    The state Board of Coal Mine Health and Safety instead proposed to adopt federal regulations on methane monitoring, but with a tougher standard than what is enforced by the U.S. Mine Safety and Health Administration.

    Board members asked after repeated delays that left them about 10 months behind schedule to write a rule for tightening the state’s requirement for mining equipment to be automatically shut off when the explosive gas methane is detected underground.

    “The board, after nearly a year of deliberations, could not come up with a way to implement the legislative mandate,” board administrator Joel Watts explained after the board’s decision at a meeting in Charleston.

    The methane requirements are part of legislation supported by the governor, lawmakers, industry and labor. The legislation was billed as a response to the disaster at the former Massey Energy Upper Big Branch Mine. On April 5, 2010, a small methane ignition at Upper Big Branch grew into a huge coal-dust-fueled explosion. Twenty-nine miners died, making it the worst U.S. coal-mining disaster in nearly 40 years.

    Generally, coal operators are required to monitor underground mines for methane, which can explode when it is present in an amount between 5 percent and 15 percent of the air.

    Under federal rules, methane monitors are designed to automatically shut down underground mining equipment if the explosive gas is detected at concentrations of 2 percent or greater. The idea is that shutting down mining equipment removes a potential source of a spark that could ignite methane and cause a catastrophic explosion.

    Initially, under legislation introduced last year by Democratic House of Delegates leaders, coal-cutting devices on mining equipment would be required to shut down automatically when methane concentrations reached 1.25 percent.

  • causes of global warming

    causes of global warming

    Posted by on August 21, 2013

    Global Warming Web

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    causes of global warming

     

    First, let us clear that causes of global warming is the phenomenon of the increase in the temperature of the atmosphere and oceans in recent decades. Air pollutants accumulate in the atmosphere form a thicker layer at a time, trapping the sun’s heat and causing global warming. The main pollutants are carbon dioxide (produced by power plants based on coal) and carbon dioxide CO2 (emitted by cars).

    Global warming will cause irreparable consequences:

    – The melting of glaciers

    – Droughts cause the most severe water shortages;

    – Increased deforestation or throws deserts;

    – Hurricanes, cyclones, global warming makes that more water evaporates from the oceans strengthening these types of disasters;

    – The rise in sea levels will produce coastal flooding;

    – The condition of habitats such as coral reefs and forests could the extinction of many animal and plant species in the ecosystem caused fluctuations lead.

    – Heat waves, the elderly and children killed, especially in Europe;

    – Forests, fields and cities faced cumbersome new pests and more mosquito-borne diseases.

    Here are some tips to help prevent global warming:

    Reduce your impact on the displacement

    Much of the CO2 produced in the world comes from cars, trucks and airplanes. Here are some simple, practical things to reduce its motion emitted in their CO2 emissions.

    Reduce the number of miles that you drive with public transport, walking, cycling or car sharing:

    When stop driving only 16 miles per week than we normally handle, remove about 227 kg of CO2 emissions per year. Use the respective vehicle only when necessary and do not use it for short trips that can be done on foot. If you should to stop the car for more than a minute off during the waiting period.

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    Pick up people from work or school:

    Share your car with someone who will otherwise only your own car twice a week, the CO2 emissions 723 kg per year.

    Keep you synchronized your car:

    Regular maintenance helps improve fuel efficiency and reduced emisiones.Revise your tires weekly for proper inflation:

    Holding tires are properly inflated to enhance fuel efficiency more than 3%. Every liter of petrol saved keeps 9 kg of CO2 is emitted into the atmosphere.

    When looking for a new car, choose one with fuel efficiency:

    You can 1364 kg CO2 if your new car is only 5 km walk more per gallon than the old one. Hybrid cars can be up to 96 miles on a single gallon of gasoline. Evaluate new alternatives such as electric cars already available on the market.

    Replace your light bulbs with efficient bulbs:

    Can get the efficient bulbs, up to 60% less energy than normal. This simple change can be up to 136 kg of carbon per year and money on your electricity bill. Position they are places where light used are older. Use task lighting for reading, crafts, etc and bright color of the walls of your home, so you can use lower wattage bulbs.

    Use less hot water:

    Saving energy is very important to note that it requires a lot of energy to heat water.

    Where possible, dry your laundry on a rope instead of the dryer:

    In this way, up to 636 kg of carbon dioxide (CO2) can save per year. If the washing machine to do the laundry when you reach the maximum recommended by the manufacturer, not more than the maximum rated power to wash some clothes with the economic program.

    Use to prevent the right amount of soap that do more than a rinse, reuse of water you use the washing machine, this could serve to toilets or mop floors.

    Do not switch devices in use:

    Simply turning off your television, stereo or computer, if not save them thousands of pounds of CO2 per year.

    Make energy conservation part of your daily routine: avoid turn off the lights when you leave a room, turn off appliances they instead on “stand-by” iron once a week, and opening ever in the vicinity of the refrigerator, avoid opening the the oven door. We recommend using the residual heat finish cooking the food.

    Unplug appliances that you do not use:

    Even if they are off devices such as mobile phone chargers and televisions use energy. In fact, the energy used so wasted 18 million tons of carbon dioxide per year.

    Admire the law of the 3 Rs:

    Recycle, Reduce unnecessary and irresponsible consumption of goods and REUSE. When retrieving boxes or containers that you contribute to fewer trees are harvested, calculated CO2 capture and purify the air. You can save generated from household waste by recycling just half of 1090 kg of CO2 per year.

    How to recycle, using multiple doses: one for paper and cardboard, glass and plastic for one and one for residual waste (organic, toilet paper and wrappers can not be recycled).

    Remember, though, that there are companies that specialize in the purchase of recyclable materials such as newsprint, bottles, etc.. Find out where you can.

    With both sides of the paper:

    Especially if you are taking notes or draft copies. By reusing 100 kilos of paper saved the lives of at least 7 trees.

    Buy recycled paper products:

    Take on recycled paper to produce 70-90% less energy.

    As efficient use of water:

    Make sure that the toilets and sinks and toilets, leaks. Repair leaks immediately, because ten drops per minute mean wasted 2000 liters of water per year. Avoid washing food with an open key, use a container. Upon completion, this water can be used for watering the plants.

    Avoid to empty the tank without; avoid pulling the oil sinks, floats on water and is very difficult to eliminate, avoid littering the sea, rivers or lakes.

    Want bathtub shower when you brush your teeth or shave, do not let the water run, do not use the toilets as cans with hot water only when necessary and only the necessary, collect them in a bucket of cold water from the shower before Heating and begin to swim.

    Planting Trees:

    Among other benefits of reforestation as a contribution to the environment and habitat of species (biodiversity) and water conservation, trees capture CO2 during growth.

    Do not buy products with many envelopes and packages:

    You can 545 kg of CO2 when to waste it produces reduced by 10% the amount.

  • Rising sea level fears may spark Bass Coast planning changes

    Rising sea level fears may spark Bass Coast planning changes

    Updated 5 hours 48 minutes ago

    Bass Coast Shire councillors will consider a planning amendment at tonight’s general council meeting that could make developing coastal and riverine areas harder.

    Using Victorian Government data, the Bass Coast Shire Council has determined large areas of the municipality will be flooded by storm surges, wind, wave and tides over the next 80 years.

    The State Government predicts a sea level rise of almost a metre.

    The shire says this will affect areas from Jam Jerrup to Corinella, land surrounding Bass River, Newhaven, Cowes and Silverleaves, land surrounding Powlett River, Inverloch and Mahers Landing.

    To protect residents, property and itself from rising sea levels and riverine flooding, and itself from future legal action, the shire plans to extend the Land Subject Inundation Overlay.

    The changes would make getting approval for development on affected areas harder.

    Topics: urban-development-and-planning, local-government, floods, emergency-planning, jam-jerrup-3984, sale-3850, corinella-3984, cowes-3922, newhaven-3925

    First posted 9 hours 2 minutes ago

  • Only in Alaska? Creeping frozen landslide threatens critical highway and pipeline

    Only in Alaska? Creeping frozen landslide threatens critical highway and pipeline

    Laurel Andrews

    August 13, 2013
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    If left alone, the mysterious, icy landslide will reach a highway critical to Alaska’s North Slope oil patch — and after that will even threaten the trans-Alaska pipeline itself. But there’s still plenty of time to stop it. Dr. Ronald Daanen / DNR

    A massive landslide of frozen debris and ice is inching its way toward the Dalton Highway, outside of the Gates of the Arctic National Park Preserve, and nobody is quite sure how to stop it. If left to its own devices, in the next ten years the little-understood formation will reach the highway which serves as the only ground link between Alaska’s road system and its critical North Slope oil patch. If the slide isn’t stopped, it will eventually threaten the trans-Alaska pipeline itself.

    As new evidence shows that the formations — called frozen debris lobes — have sped up over time, researchers are calling for more studies on the huge, frozen landslides, and the Department of Transportation is assessing how to best handle the threat to the state’s infrastructure.

    The best solution, for now, may be to simply get out of the landslide’s path.

    Frozen landslides threaten Alaska’s economy

    There are around 200 frozen debris lobes mapped out in the Gates of the Arctic National Park and Preserve, which is the northernmost national park in the U.S. and is located entirely above the Arctic Circle. The slowly-moving landslides are frozen masses of weathered bedrock eroded into collections of sediment, ice, water, and unfortunate bits of foliage consumed in its wake.

    “These features seem to be eating trees,” said Ronald Daanen, a geohydrologist with the Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys, noting that he had found a piece of wood in one lobe that was 1,300 years old.

    The lobe in question, named “FDL-A” is huge, at about three-quarters of a mile long, more than 600 feet wide and 80 feet tall. It is now 150 feet from the Dalton Highway. Moving at its current rate, the landslide will reach the road in around 10 years.

    The Dalton Highway is a 414-mile road that runs from the Interior community of Livengood, about 80 miles north of Fairbanks, to Prudhoe Bay on the Arctic Ocean coast. The highway runs parallel to the trans-Alaska pipeline, and is traversed mainly by the trucking industry, bringing supplies up and down from Prudhoe Bay. The highway remains open year-round, and has only been shut down due to planned maintenance or by avalanches at Atigun Pass, north of Gates of the Arctic National Park.

    Alyeska Pipeline Services Co. spokesperson Michelle Egan said that the consortium in charge of the line is well aware of the formations, and is working with the state to stay “well ahead of any permafrost changes” that could threaten the pipeline’s infrastructure.

    Should the highway shut down, “it would not be a trivial thing,” said Jeff Curry, Alaska Department of Transportation’s northern region materials engineer. He said it would be a “very big blow to Alaska’s economy,” which is heavily dependent on the North Slope’s oil and gas industry.

    How do debris lobes move?

    These frozen landslides were formed sometime after the ice age, between 5,000 and 10,000 years ago. The lobes, said Daanen, are made mostly of permafrost, but they carry liquid water inside the frozen earth, an “uncommon phenomenon.” Pressure within the mass keeps the water from freezing, and gravity helps push the mass along its path.

    The debris lobes also have some similarities to glaciers. The “rate of movement is very similar,” Daanen said, varying seasonally and between individual lobes, with each lobe moving at a different pace. The lobes also have cracks on the surface which mimic cracks in glacial ice.

    No one is quite sure how the formations came to be. “One of the mysteries is really what’s driving these things to form,” Daanen said.

    One theory is that during the ice age, the tops of hills that remained elevated above the glaciated landscape were subject to harsh erosion, and the sediment wore away and accumulated on the sides of the hills. Once the glaciers disappeared, these frozen blobs of debris “just started moving down the hill,” Daanen said.

    Whatever the cause, these massive lobes seem to be speeding up in the 21st century.

    From 1955 to the early 2000s, FDL-A moved at about a half-inch a day. But around 2004 or 2005, the lobe’s speed increased. “I think something has shifted since that time,” Daanen said. Now, the lobe is moving around an inch a day.

    Scientists also have their eye on one of the lobes that is moving much faster, named “FDL-D”, which galloped 150 feet last year — a monumental pace for a frozen landslide.

    It’s possible that FDL-A could also increase in speed, as it seems to be showing similar characteristics as FDL-D, specifically increased cracking along the top of the formation.

    Discovered and rediscovered

    USGS Geologist Thomas Hamilton first mapped out the frozen debris lobes in the early 1970s, as part of the pipeline planning process.

    Decades later, in 2007, Daanen was traveling on the Dalton Highway, measuring snow depths on the North Slope, when he spotted the formations.

    “I thought I should just keep an eye out for drunken forests, because that’s one of the signs of global warming,” Daanen said. A drunken forest — where the trees are criss-crossed and falling over — occurs when permafrost thaws and the ground re-settles, causing the trees to shift.

    Daanen began to see drunken forests just north of Coldfoot, about 250 miles north of Fairbanks. Then he noticed that the reeling trees were all on slope-like features. His curiosity piqued, Daanen snapped some photos of the slopes and went along his way.

    Daanen met up with Hamilton later that year and told him about his find. “He got very big eyes,” Daanen said. Hamilton was happy that his work from years before had been brought back to the table. He was also “kind of surprised that a permafrost scientist picked up on it and not a geologist,” Daanen laughed.

    “That’s kind of how the research got started,” Daanen said.

    A research grant with the University of Alaska Fairbanks followed in 2008, and studies on the frozen landslides began. Daanen and his colleague Margaret Darrow have been studying them ever since.

    Hamilton originally called the lobes “flow slides,” but Daanen, Darrow and Hamilton renamed the formations to “frozen debris lobes,” a generic name that describes the formation aptly enough.

    The Department of Transportation was first clued in to the dangers of the approaching lobe after Daanen told them about the issue.

    “Initially we were not excited about it,” Currey said. “We have to be a little skeptical when somebody says there’s an emergency.”

    Yet as additional data was brought to the table, indicating that the lobes were moving faster than before, the department “recognized that it was a real issue.”

    If you can’t stop it, move the highway

    The big question surrounding the frozen debris lobe: How can we stop it from slowly devouring the state’s infrastructure?

    While Daanen has found no “magic bullet” so far, he is eyeing the water inside the lobes as a possible key to stopping their movement. If that water could be turned to ice, the landslide could potentially be halted in its tracks, he said.

    Moving the road seems to be the solution so far. While DOT is still in the environment assessment stage of planning, relocating the road “looks to be the most favorable right now,” design project manager Jeff Organek said.

    The realignment of the road is wrapped into part of a larger, 26-mile revamp of that section of the highway that involves widening and paving the highway.

    DOT will likely shift the road 400 feet to the left, as far as possible before the highway runs into the pipeline it runs parallel to. “That will buy us quite a bit of time to learn more about the frozen debris lobe,” Currey said.

    To weave the road around the creeping frozen menace will take several years and several million dollars, at least. At this time “we don’t really know how long the realignment is going to be,” Organek said. A conservative estimate hovers around 2 miles of road, or about $4 million.

    DOT will have the environmental assessment concluded in the spring of 2014. With the lengthy contract and permitting processes ahead, construction on the new route will probably commence in the summer of 2016.

    Will prowling lobe devour old road?

    The old road will stay in place, and DOT will be watching to see how the lobe affects it. The lobe may just plow right over the road, consuming it as it has with unlucky trees. Or, the road embankment may ease the lobe’s movement, Currey said.

    “‘I think it’s going to push the whole road away,” Daanen said.

    Daanen will be returning to the site of FDL-A at the end of August. There’s still lots of work to be done, he said, and little funding to assist researchers.

    “We really need to get more data.”

    Although Daanen recently left the University of Alaska Fairbanks to work for the state’s Geological and Geophysical Survey department, he will continue to research the lobes in his spare time. “It would be silly not to continue,” he said.

    Contact Laurel Andrews at laurel(at)alaskadispatch.com

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  • UN Climate Change Report Draft Warns Of 3 Foot Sea Level Rise By 2100

    UN Climate Change Report Draft Warns Of 3 Foot Sea Level Rise By 2100

    The Huffington Post  |  By Posted: 08/19/2013 6:39 pm EDT  |  Updated: 08/19/2013 9:35 pm EDT

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    A leaked draft of the U.N.’s next major climate change report warns that global sea levels could rise more than three feet by the end of the century if greenhouse emissions continue unabated, The New York Times reported Monday.

    The Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change (IPCC) report is also more confident that human activities, like the burning of fossil fuels, are the chief cause of the atmospheric warming seen since the 1950s. The report’s authors say it is at least 95 percent likely that humans are behind this warming, according to an initial report from Reuters last Friday.

    This confidence is reflected in the study’s language. It’s “extremely likely” that humans caused “more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010,” the Times quoted from the draft report.

    The IPCC outlines several sea level rise scenarios for the end of the century, based on efforts to limit emissions in the coming decades. The most optimistic emissions reductions could bring only a 10-inch rise, explains the Times, on top of the eight inches seen in the last century. If emissions continue at a runaway pace, sea levels could rise “at least 21 inches by 2100 and might rise a bit more than three feet.”

    The National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration’s 2012 State of the Climate report, released earlier this month, showed global greenhouse gas emissions reached a new record high in 2011, and estimates suggest the record was broken again in 2012.

    “It’s good to see that the IPCC has moved in the right direction this time by at least trying to account for the key contribution to sea level rise from melting ice sheets,” director of Pennsylvania State University’s Earth System Science Center Michael Mann told The Huffington Post in an emailed statement, explaining that it was ignored in the previous IPCC report from 2007.

    “However, the projections they provide are still overly conservative, with an upper limit of roughly one meter by 2100, when there is published work that suggests the possibility of as much as two meters (six feet) sea level rise by 2100,” he added.

    “This fits a pattern of the IPCC tending to err on the side of conservative, in part–I believe—because of fear of being attacked by the climate change denial machine.”

    Describing the IPCC’s projections, Climate Progress’ Joe Romm wrote on Sunday, “Like every IPCC report, it is an instantly out-of-date snapshot that lowballs future warming because it continues to ignore large parts of the recent literature and omit what it can’t model.”

    A recent study published in the journal Nature Climate Change shows that with only 15.75 inches of sea level rise by mid-century, losses due to flooding in 136 of the world’s coastal cities may approach $1 trillion annually, reported Climate Central.

    IPCC spokesman Jonathan Lynn cautioned against drawing too many conclusions from the leaked drafts, but told the BBC on Monday, “We are not trying to keep it secret.” He said, “After the report is finished we are going to publish all the comments and response so that people can track the process.”

    Reuters’ breakdown of the IPCC draft also draws attention to the apparent slowdown in warming observed since 1998, despite rising greenhouse gas emissions. Romm contends the slowdown “turns out to be only true if one looks narrowly at surface air temperatures, where only a small fraction of warming ends up.”

    The Times emphasizes the international scientific panel’s further confidence in the future effects of unchecked emissions and notes, the experts “largely dismiss a recent slowdown in the pace of warming, which is often cited by climate change contrarians, as probably related to short-term factors.”

    The IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report is set to be released in four parts