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  • ‘Critical decade’ for climate risks in Australia, world sea levels

    ‘Critical decade’ for climate risks in Australia, world sea levels

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    2013-07-09


    A rise in sea levels and greater frequency of heavy rain will have an impact on property and infrastructure in Australia and around the world, according to a recent report from the country’s Climate Commission Secretariat.

    Critical decade for Australia climate risks

    “Climate change is likely to affect much of Australia’s infrastructure, including commercial and residential buildings, utilities (such as energy and water services) and transportation systems, in a variety of ways,” according to the report, dubbed “The Critical Decade 2013: Climate change science, risks and responses.”

    The report noted that the global average sea level is rising by 3cm every 10 years and will contribute to an increase in coastal flooding around the world.

    “Rainfall patterns are shifting,” according to the report, written by professors Will Steffen and Professor Lesley Hughes. “The southwest corner of Western Australia and much of eastern Australia has become drier since 1970. The southwest and southeast corners of Australia are likely to remain drier than the long-term average or become even drier.”

    Steffen is a researcher at the Australian National University, Canberra and Hughes is an ecologist in the Department of Biological Sciences at Macquarie University.

    Climate change impact on New South Wales

    They noted that in some regions of the world, there is “high confidence that the intensity and frequency of heavy precipitation are likely to increase.” Those regions include northern Europe, Alaska, northwest and east Canada, Greenland, Iceland, east Africa and northern Asia and central Europe in winter.

    Quoting from earlier Climate Commission Secretariat reports, the authors noted that in Australia, the combined value of commercial, light industrial, transport and residential buildings at risk from a sea-level rise of 1.1 metres is about 226 billion Australian dollars.

    “Much of Australia’s commercial buildings, industrial facilities, airports, ports, hospitals, schools, roads and railways and many residential buildings are in close proximity to the coast, putting much property and infrastructure at risk from sea-level rise.”

    The report added there an increased risk of” extreme fire weather” in some parts of Australia, “especially the populous southeast.”

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  • ACTION ALERT – It’s time to protect Antarctica​’s Southern Ocean!

    ACTION ALERT – It’s time to protect Antarctica​’s Southern Ocean!

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    Stephen Campbell steve@antarcticocean.org via createsend4.com
    6:22 PM (1 hour ago)

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    10,000 species need your help!

    Antarctic Ocean Alliance

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    Dear NEVILLE,

    As you read this leaders from 25 countries are converging on a small seaside town in Germany to decide the fate of Antarctica’s Southern Ocean – behind closed doors.

    Wonder what these decision makers are up to right now? Making phone calls? Having dinner in a hotel restaurant? For sure, they are discussing whether or not to say YES to protect the last pristine ocean wilderness left on earth.

    These decision makers, who are part of CCAMLR, are meeting this week in Bremerhaven to discuss two key proposals for Antarctic marine protection, one for the Ross Sea, and one for East Antarctica. Either of them would see the creation of the world’s largest marine sanctuary.

    With your help, we’re going to make sure they know the world is watching their meeting. Tomorrow, Thursday 11 July, we’re going to project your Twitter messages from all points of the earth onto a wall at the meeting, calling for the protection of these waters.

    Here’s how to send them your message:

    1. Use the hashtag #AntarcticOcean in a tweet to decision makers calling on them to protect Antarctica’s Southern Ocean.

    2. Head straight to the Twitter wall website and click on the #AntarcticOcean hashtag, sign into your Twitter account and hit send.

    3. Use our suggested tweets you can send from here.

    Don’t have Twitter?

    Email key decision makers directly through visiting our new interactive infographic here. Click on all the countries that are ‘critical to success’ and send an email calling on them to make history this year by protecting Antarctica’s ocean.

    Have you seen our new video?

    Screen Shot 2013-07-10 at 9.01.02 AM

    If not click on the picture above or watch it here and share it with your friends to see the beauty that’s at stake in the Southern Ocean.

    It’s time to get busy Watchers!

     

    Thanks for your support
    The AOA Team
    FOLLOW THE CAMPAIGN:      
    Antarctic Ocean Alliance
    info@antarcticocean.org
    SIGN THE PETITION

    You’re receiving this email because you signed the petition to protect Antarctica’s waters with AOA or a partner.
  • Kuwait is one of the world’s top producers and net exporters of oil.

    Last Updated: July 8, 2013  (Notes)

    full report

    Overview

    Kuwait is one of the world’s top producers and net exporters of oil.

    As a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Kuwait was the world’s 10th largest oil producer in 2012. Despite having the second smallest land area among the OPEC member countries, Kuwait exports the third largest volume of oil. Kuwait’s economy is heavily dependent on petroleum export revenues, accounting for nearly half of its gross domestic product and nearly 70 percent of export revenues. EIA estimates these revenues were 75 billion dollars in 2012. Kuwait should remain one of the world’s top oil producers as the country pushes towards a target of 4 million barrels per day (bbl/d) of production capacity by 2020.

    In an effort to diversify its oil-heavy economy, Kuwait has expanded efforts to develop its non-associated natural gas fields, which remain a small portion of its natural gas production. Greater production of gas can provide fuel for electricity generation which frequently falls short during periods of peak electricity demand.

    Energy policy is set by the Supreme Petroleum Council, overseen by the Ministry of Petroleum, and executed by The Kuwait Petroleum Corporation and its various subsidiaries. In addition, Kuwait has an active sovereign-wealth fund, the Kuwait Investment Authority, which oversees all state expenditures and international investments. Despite, Kuwait’s constitutional ban on foreign ownership of its resources, the government has taken measures to increase foreign participation in the oil and gas sectors. Kuwait is a constitutional emirate led by the Emir of Kuwait, a hereditary seat led by the Al-Sabah family. The Prime Minister and his deputy and council of ministers are approved by the Emir.

    Map of Kuwait

    Oil

    Kuwait holds the world’s sixth largest oil reserves and is one of the top ten global producers and exporters of total petroleum liquids.

    According to Oil & Gas Journal, as of January 2013, Kuwait’s territorial boundaries contained an estimated 102 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, roughly 6 percent of the world total. Kuwait ranked sixth in terms of oil reserves among all countries in 2012. Additional reserves are held in the Partitioned Neutral Zone (PNZ), which Kuwait shares on a 50-50 basis with Saudi Arabia. The Neutral Zone holds an additional 5 billion barrels of proven reserves, bringing Kuwait’s total oil reserves to 104 billion barrels.

    Graph showing the countries with the top proven oil reserves for 2013

    Sector organization

    Kuwait Petroleum Corporation, Kuwait’s national oil company, and its subsidiaries controls the entire oil sector from upstream to downstream and exports.

    The government of Kuwait owns and controls all development of the oil sector. The Supreme Petroleum Council (SPC) oversees Kuwait’s oil sector and sets oil policy. The SPC is headed by the Prime Minister. The rest of the council is made up of six ministers and six representatives from the private sector, all of whom serve three-year terms, and are selected by the Emir. The Ministry of Petroleum supervises all aspects of policy implementation in the upstream and downstream portions of both the oil and natural gas sectors.

    The Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC) manages domestic and foreign oil investments. Kuwait Oil Company (KOC), the upstream subsidiary of KPC, was taken over by the Kuwaiti government in 1975 and manages all upstream development in the oil and gas sectors. The Kuwait National Petroleum Company (KNPC) controls the downstream sector, while the Petrochemical Industries Company (PIC) is in charge of the petrochemical sector. Export operations are overseen by both KNPC and the Kuwait Oil Tanker Company (KOTC). Foreign interests of KPC are handled by the Kuwait Foreign Petroleum Exploration Company (Kufpec), and international upstream development and downstream operations are controlled by Kuwait Petroleum International (KPI). Finally, Kuwait Energy Company (KEC) is a privately-held company that has developed a number of foreign interests over the past decade, including interests in Yemen, Egypt, Russia, Pakistan, and Oman.

    The Partitioned Neutral Zone (PNZ) has its own managing companies, separated by onshore and offshore activities. The onshore sector was developed by American Independent Oil Company (Aminoil), which was nationalized in 1977. Getty Oil, which would eventually be subsumed by Chevron, was brought in to develop onshore PNZ fields Wafra, South Umm Gudair, and Humma. Chevron remains a participant along with KPC, although management of all KPC PNZ interests has been transferred to the Kuwait Gulf Oil Company (KGOC). Offshore, a Japanese company, the Arabian Oil Company (AOC) discovered Khafji, Hout, Lulu, and Dorra oil fields in the 1960s. The concessions with Saudi Arabia and Kuwait expired in 2000 and 2002, respectively. KGOC was established in 2002 to oversee the offshore operations for KPC. Subsequently, KGOC, along with Aramco Gulf Operations Company (AOGC), set up a joint operating company, Al-Khafji Joint Operations Company (KJO), which manages offshore PNZ production.

    Map of oil fields in Kuwait Source: Kuwait Oil Company (KOC)

    Exploration and production

    Kuwait has implemented enhanced oil recovery measures to boost stagnant production rates. New discoveries have been made, but Kuwait’s regulated oil sector hinders further exploration and production.

    In 2012, Kuwait’s total oil production was approximately 2.8 million barrels per day (bbl/d), including its share of approximately 250,000 bbl/d of oil production from the PNZ. Of the country’s 2012 production, approximately 2.6 million bbl/d was crude oil and 200,000 bbl/d was non-crude liquids. Slightly over half of Kuwaiti crude production in 2011 came from the southeast of the country, largely from the Burgan field. Production from the north has increased to approximately 650,000 bbl/d according to KOC. In early 2011, as one of the few OPEC members with spare capacity, Kuwait increased oil production to compensate for the loss of Libyan supplies.

    Because of a greatly debated constitutional ban on foreign ownership of Kuwait’s natural resources, domestic production of Kuwait’s fields have stalled. Discoveries of lighter crudes in the center of the country have been successful, but progress has not moved beyond the planning stages. In 1984, a discovery was made in South Maqwa, revealing light crude of API 35° to 40° grade, and after drilling began at Kra’a al-Mara in 1990, significant volumes of 49° API crude were found. Negotiations began with ExxonMobil, but the conditions to move this project to full development have not been reached. Another successful discovery was made in 2006 in the Sabriya and Umm Niqa areas, in the north of the country, which added an estimated 20 to 25 billion barrels of reserves, although mostly of a heavier, sour quality.

    In a plan to circumvent the constitutional ban, international oil companies (IOCs) were allowed involvement through Enhanced Technical Service Agreements (ETSA). Royal Dutch Shell, in February 2010, signed an ETSA to exploit these new discoveries; however, progress has been slow in boosting production. KOC is also having trouble developing the Lower Fars reservoir of al-Ratqa field. KOC initially negotiated with ExxonMobil, Shell, and Total to develop this field, but KOC subsequently abandoned plans for a joint project development. KPC also signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) in July 2010 with Japan Oil, Gas, and Metals National Corporation (JOGMEC) to assess the feasibility of injection of carbon dioxide as a potential enhanced oil recovery (EOR) technique.

    KPC announced a $100-billion capital spending plan over five years encompassing both the upstream and the downstream sectors. Included are plans to upgrade Kuwait’s production and export infrastructure and its tanker fleet, expand exploration, and build downstream facilities, both domestically and abroad. This effort is expected to boost total oil production capacity to 4 million bbl/d by 2020, and it is projected that the production capacity would be maintained through 2030. In order to achieve its 2020 target, IOC investment and participation will be necessary.

    Much of Kuwait’s reserves and production are concentrated in a few mature oil fields discovered in the 1930s and 1950s. The Greater Burgan oil field, which comprises the Burgan, Magwa, and Ahmadi reservoirs, makes up the dominant portion of both reserves and production. Burgan is widely considered the world’s second largest oil field, surpassed only by Saudi Arabia’s Ghawar field. Greater Burgan was discovered in 1938, but it did not become fully developed until after World War II. Burgan has been producing consistently since production first began. Generally, production from Burgan is medium to light crudes, with API gravities in the 28° to 36° range. Although Burgan’s recent production of between 1.1 and 1.3 million bbl/d accounted for about half of Kuwait’s total production, Burgan could be further developed to produce as much as 1.7 million bbl/d. KOC is seeking to boost Burgan’s capacity largely from the Wara reservoir through water injection recovery methods.

    Other production centers in the south of the country include Umm Gudair, Minagish, and Abduliyah. Umm Gudair and Minagish produce a variety of crude oil grades, which largely fall in the medium range, with gravities of 22° to 34° API.

    In January 2003, water injection began at Minagish to enhance oil recovery and offset natural production declines. In 2009, an exploration well drilled discovered light crude and associated natural gas at the Mutriba oil field to the west of Rudhatain. As much as 80,000 bbl/d are expected from this field, with plans for production coming on-stream by 2014.

    Northern Kuwait holds the majority of Kuwait’s larger fields other than Greater Burgan. Kuwait’s second largest source of crude production is from the northern Raudhatain field, with a capacity of 350,000 to 400,000 bbl/d. Sabriya field is adjacent to Raudhatain and adds another 100,000 bbl/d. The frontier fields of al-Ratqa, the southern extension of Iraq’s Rumaila structure, and the smaller Abdali field were both obtained after the new border was established in 1993 following the end of the Persian Gulf War. They add another 75,000 bbl/d of production capacity. In August 2010, British Petrofac signed a deal with KOC to boost production capacity at Raudhatain and neighboring Sabriyah fields. In the same month, Kuwaiti and Iraqi officials agreed in principle to jointly develop shared oil fields, as well as to allow IOCs to aid in such projects.

    Project Kuwait

    In an otherwise nationalized oil sector, Project Kuwait attempts to incentivize foreign investment to bring production capacity to 4 million bbl/d by 2020.

    A focal point of Kuwait’s aspirations to attain a production capacity of 4 million bbl/d is Project Kuwait. Proposed in 1998, Project Kuwait was a concerted effort to create proper incentives to attract foreign participation. The contract structure that resulted was challenged as unconstitutional and the National Assembly has impeded progress of Project Kuwait for a number of years. Kuwait’s constitution bars foreign ownership of the country’s natural resources, which precludes the product-sharing agreements (PSAs) that provide the desired incentive for IOC investment. In order to allow IOC involvement, an “incentivized buy-back contract” (IBBC) arrangement was created, which neither involves production sharing nor concessions.

    The structure of the IBBC agreements allows the Kuwaiti government to retain full ownership of oil reserves, control over oil production levels, and strategic management of the ventures. Foreign firms are to be paid a “per barrel” fee, along with allowances for capital recovery and incentive fees for increasing reserves. In May 2007, the Kuwaiti ruling family conceded the responsibility to approve each related IBBC for Project Kuwait to the National Assembly, which has caused further delays. Additionally, more performance-based incentives have been introduced in an ETSA structure, although only one has been awarded so far.

    Project Kuwait aims to increase the country’s oil production capacity from four northern oil fields (Raudhatain, Sabriya, al-Ratqa, and Abdali) and targets 1 million bbl/d of output from the fields by 2015. This serves as a pivotal component to increase overall oil production capacity to 3.5 million bbl/d by 2015, and 4 million bbl/d by 2020, which KOC admits will require the help of IOCs. Some agreements, such as the ETSA with Royal Dutch Shell forged in February 2010 and continued negotiations with other IOCs over EOR developments have enhanced prospects for foreign participation, yet no other final agreements have been made. Production from the northern fields is expected to rise with the installation of a 165,000 bbl/d early production center at the Sabriya field.

    Heavy oil is also a major long-term component of Project Kuwait, providing a projected 60,000 bbl/d by 2016 and 270,000 bbl/d by 2020, although this is much lower than the original forecast production of 750,000 bbl/d. Estimated heavy oil reserves of approximately 13 billion barrels are located primarily in the north of Kuwait, with other reserves concentrated in the PNZ.

    An unconventional source of potential production will come from the clean-up of the large pools of crude that have remained since the withdrawal of the Iraqi army after the Persian Gulf War. The KOC has awarded tenders to HERA Company of Spain, GS Engineering and Construction Corporation of South Korea, and TERI Company of India in February 2012 to aid in soil remediation, which could result in significant crude volumes. The entire operation will take a number of years and cost roughly $3.5 billion, paid for by the UN reparations fund; however, the first phase involves only three sites. During the Persian Gulf War, the Iraqi army set more than 800 wells ablaze and estimates indicate that as much as 5 million bbl/d were lost over the nine months it took to extinguish the fires, which resulted in the creation of thousands of crude oil lakes. Additionally, the crude lakes restrict access to producing areas and known reserves, which further restricts exploration and production.

    Partitioned Neutral Zone

    Territorial dispute between Kuwait and Saudi Arabia led to the creation of the Partitioned Neutral Zone. Both countries divide equally the production of oil and gas in the zone.

    The Partitioned Neutral Zone (PNZ) was established in 1922 to settle a territorial dispute between Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. The PNZ encompasses a 6,200 square-mile area and contains an estimated 5 billion barrels of oil and 1 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of natural gas. Oil production capacity in the PNZ is currently about 600,000 bbl/d, all of which is divided equally between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.

    Onshore production in the PNZ centers on the Wafra oil field, which began producing oil in 1954. Wafra is the largest of the PNZ’s onshore fields with approximately 3.4 billion in proven and probable reserves. Wafra has related production facilities and gathering centers with South Umm Gudair and South Fuwaris. Onshore production in the PNZ has a capacity of 240,000 bbl/d, but it is in decline. A full-field steam injection project led by Chevron is under development to offset field declines and boost production by over 80,000 bbl/d. The anticipated project is set to start in 2017.

    The production capacity of offshore fields in the PNZ is 350,000 bbl/d, with plans to double production to 700,000 bbl/d by 2019. Nearly 90 percent of current offshore production comes from Khafji. Offshore production is about four times as expensive in the PNZ as in the rest of Kuwait. Production offshore originates from Khafji, an extension of Saudi Arabia’s Safaniyah (the world’s largest offshore field); Hout, which is also an extension of Safaniyah; and Dorra, an extension of Iran’s Arash and shared with Saudi Arabia. Dorra is not currently under production, pending resolution of boundary demarcation negotiations and plans for joint development between Kuwait and Iran.

    Graph showing Kuwait's oil production and consumption for 1987-2012

    Exports and consumption

    Kuwait’s domestic consumption has been increasing, but a majority of its production heads to Asia.

    In 2012, Kuwaiti net exports of total liquids were estimated at 2.4 million bbl/d, making Kuwait the third largest exporter of total liquids among OPEC producers behind Saudi Arabia and Iran. Most Kuwaiti crude oil is sold on term contracts. Kuwait’s crude exports are a single blend of all its crude types. The largest proportion is the medium Burgan crude, which is blended with heavier, sour crude from northern fields, as well as marginal amounts from Minagish and Umm Gudair. Kuwait’s single export blend (“Kuwait Export”) has a specific gravity of 31.4°API (a typical medium Mideast crude), and is generally considered sour, with 2.52 percent sulfur content. In 2011, the Asia-Pacific region received approximately 1.5 million bbl/d of crude oil, while exports to the United States totaled 191,000 bbl/d, and Europe received around 80,000 bbl/d.

    With the majority of its export volumes headed to Asian markets, the most significant price benchmark for Kuwaiti exports is Dubai or Oman or a combination of both, to which oil exports are priced at a slight discount. As of the beginning of 2010, the price of Kuwaiti crude oil for U.S. customers was tied to the Argus Sour Crude Index (ASCI), a weighted average of various North American medium, sour crudes. European buyers purchase from a benchmark linked between a Brent weighted-average and Saudi Arab Medium.

    Mina al-Ahmadi is the country’s main port for the export of crude oil. Kuwait also has operational oil export terminals at Mina Abdullah, Shuaiba, and at Mina Saud, otherwise known as Mina al-Zour. Increased production generated by Iraq and the northern fields has necessitated the construction of a new terminal on Bubiyan Island. This terminal is still in the planning stages.

    Kuwait consumes only a small portion of its total petroleum production. The country consumed a total of 406,000 bbl/d in 2012, leaving the vast majority of its production available for exports. However, domestic consumption has been steadily increasing, partially as a result of increased petroleum-fired electricity generation.

    Refining

    Kuwait maintains refining and marketing interests in Europe and looks to expand into Asia, particularly China, Vietnam, and Indonesia.

    Oil & Gas Journal reports nameplate refining capacity in Kuwait at 936,000 bbl/d, the third-largest capacity in the Middle East. This production capacity is derived from three refinery complexes: al-Ahmadi, Abdullah, and al-Shuaiba. All of the refineries are located near the coastline, about 30 miles south of Kuwait City and are owned and operated by Kuwait National Petroleum Company (KNPC). The largest refinery, Mina al-Ahmadi, was built in 1949 and has a capacity of 466,000 bbl/d. Mina Abdullah and al-Shuaiba have nameplate capacities of 270,000 bbl/d and 200,000 bbl/d, respectively.

    Kuwait Petroleum International (KPI), also known as Q8, manages KPC’s refining and marketing operations internationally. Its operations include approximately 4,000 retail stations across Belgium, Spain, Sweden, Luxembourg, and Italy. KPI has interests in two refineries, owning an 80,000 bbl/d refinery in Rotterdam, Netherlands and a 50-50 joint venture with Italian major ENI in the 240,000 bbl/d capacity refinery in Milazzo, Italy.

    Kuwait is seeking to cultivate downstream interests in markets with high potential demand growth, the Asian market in particular, specifically China, Vietnam, and Indonesia. In China’s Guangdong Province, KPC is negotiating a refinery and petrochemical joint venture with China’s Sinopec, with a remaining stake allocated to Total. The plant will feature a 300,000 bbl/d capacity refinery, which will also have an ethylene steam cracker with the capacity to produce 1 million tons per year (mtpa) of ethylene and its derivatives. In March 2011, China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) gave final approval to the project, making Kuwait the second Arab oil producer behind Saudi Arabia to have a major downstream facility in China. Sinopec has announced a planned commission date of 2014; however, analysts predict a much longer timeframe, with a likely start-up in 2018-2019. Kuwait aims to increase its exports from 200,000 bbl/d to 500,000 bbl/d with the completion of the refinery.

    Kuwait Petroleum International (KPI) joined with PetroVietnam and Japanese Idemitsu in April 2008 to construct a 200,000 bbl/d refinery in Nhi Son, Vietnam. In November 2010, the Vietnamese government approved the project, with an expected completion date of 2014. KPI currently holds a 35-percent stake, which will be reduced for PetroVietnam to take a majority stake once the refinery comes online. Indonesian officials have also announced a possible $8-9 billion, 300,000 bbl/d refinery with KPC on the island of Java.

    Clean Fuels Project and Al-Zour

    In June 2011, Kuwait’s Supreme Petroleum Council approved two long-delayed projects: the Clean Fuels Project and the al-Zour refining facility. These two ambitious projects have an estimated combined cost of over $31 billion and come at a time of increasing domestic demand, especially in the petrochemical sector, and for higher quality products in Kuwait’s traditional export markets.

    The Clean Fuels Project (CFP) will upgrade Kuwait’s existing refineries. The planned overhaul of Kuwait’s refining sector includes building a new al-Zour refinery, shutting down the al-Shuaiba refinery, and retiring old units and installing new components at the remaining refineries. A crude distillation unit will be taken out of commission at the Mina al-Ahmadi, while Mina Abdullah will lose a number of components, but its overall capacity will increase by 184,000 bbl/d.

    The al-Zour refinery was originally put out for bids in 2008, but political opposition led to the cancellation of the bid round. This opposition forced KPC to compensate those companies who had spent resources preparing their bids, placing the entire project on hold. KNPC received the final approvals necessary to develop the Al-Zour project in 2012 and plans to re-tender contracts. The new refinery is expected to add another 615,000 bbl/d of capacity by 2018.

    Kuwaiti refineries and expansion plans
    Facility Current capacity
    (bbl/d)
    Planned capacity
    (bbl/d)
    Mina al-Ahmadi 466,000 346,000
    Mina Abdullah 270,000 454,000
    Al-Shuaiba 200,000 N/A
    Al-Zour N/A 615,000
    Total Capacity 936,000 1,415,000
    Source: Middle East Economic Survey, Middle East Economic Digest

    Natural gas

    Kuwait has recently become a net importer of natural gas, leading the country to focus more on natural gas exploration and development for domestic consumption.

    According to Oil & Gas Journal, as of January 2013, Kuwait had an estimated 63 Tcf of proven natural gas reserves. Natural gas reserves have remained at the same level since 2006. Kuwait’s intent to diversify its economy has spurred an extensive drive in natural gas exploration. Vast discoveries of non-associated gas in the north of the country attracted interest from IOCs; however, contract structures and political uncertainty remain principal impediments to any rapid expansion of both reserves and production. Additionally, new discoveries are geologically more complex, mainly tight and sour gas deposits that require more sophisticated and costly development.

    Sector organization

    Kuwait’s gas sector is also managed by the Kuwait Petroleum Corporation.

    As in the oil sector, all of the natural gas resources are owned by the Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC). The Kuwaiti constitution prohibits any use of production-sharing agreements (PSAs) that allow for an equity stake by an IOC in development projects. Therefore, Kuwait is using technical service agreements (TSAs) in order to bring in IOCs to develop more difficult projects. In February 2010, Royal Dutch Shell signed an ETSA for the 2006 natural gas discoveries in the north, known as the Jurassic fields, which contains 35 Tcf of reserves in place, the nature of which are too sour for local firms to develop.

    Graph showing Kuwait's natural gas production and consumption for 2001-2011

    Exploration and production

    Kuwait plans to increase gas production to 4 billion cubic feet per day by 2030 in efforts to satisfy domestic consumption and decrease imports of LNG.

    In 2011, Kuwait produced 1.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of natural gas. This volume was an increase of around 15 percent compared with 2010. Given the predominance of associated natural gas in Kuwaiti production, domestic natural gas supplies increased at a small rate as a result of lower OPEC crude production quotas. Kuwait requires increasing supplies of natural gas for the generation of electricity, water desalination, and petrochemicals, as well as increased use for enhanced oil recovery (EOR) techniques to boost oil production. Kuwait is shifting its exploration drive to focus on natural gas discoveries to mitigate imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and decrease the proportion of oil used domestically, particularly for electricity and desalination plants. KOC has announced a production target of 4 Bcf/d by 2030, about four times the current production level.

    Associated natural gas production makes up the vast majority of Kuwait’s overall production. In 2010, approximately 1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) was produced from associated gas, while non-associated gas production amounted to only 150-200 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d). Production of non-associated natural gas from the north is seen as the most promising future source of natural gas production growth. Given Kuwait’s fiscal and political climate, not much progress has been made in exploring the mainly offshore prospects, leaving Kuwait to focus on its natural gas discoveries in the north. KPC intends to produce about 400 MMcf/d of non-associated gas by 2020.

    The Jurassic non-associated gas field was discovered in 2006, with an estimated 35 Tcf of reserves. This project has been described as the most difficult in the world, based on the geologic composition and the technical complexities it presents. A first phase envisioned 175 MMcf/d of natural gas and 50,000 bbl/d of condensate production by 2008; however, it seems to have reached a production plateau at 140 MMcf/d. The second phase is being constructed by Kharufi National and Saipem, with a projected capacity of 500 MMcf/d due to come online by 2013. Original development plans of Jurassic forecast production of 600 MMcf/d by 2012 and 1 Bcf/d and 350,000 bbl/d of light crude or condensate, by 2015, although industry experts see the 2015 target date as unlikely. Royal Dutch Shell has been developing the Jurassic project through its 2010 ETSA.

    The other prospect for non-associated natural gas production is the Dorra gas field offshore PNZ. This field is shared by Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Iran, which calls the field Arash. Kuwait and Saudi Arabia have already announced plans to begin production at Dorra by 2017, providing an additional 500-800 MMcf/d. Iran, in response, has indicated that it will develop its own side of the field in the near future. Political tensions between the Gulf States and Iran are likely to preclude any near-term settlement of mutual development.

    Kuwait is also expanding its gas processing infrastructure to meet rising domestic demand. Daelim of South Korea is currently constructing Kuwait’s fourth and largest gas processing plant with 800 MMcf/d of capacity. This unit will be on the site of the Ahmadi refinery and give Kuwait a gas processing capacity of 2.3 Bcf/d by 2013. A fifth train of an additional 800 MMcf/d is also in the planning stages, taking potential capacity over 3 Bcf/d. However, neither the current production plans nor the expansion of processing facilities is expected to meet the growing levels of domestic demand.

    Consumption and imports

    In 2011, Kuwait consumed approximately 502 Bcf of natural gas, which is equal to 1.4 Bcf/d. Since 2009, Kuwait has consumed more natural gas than it has produced, compounding the problem of electricity outages by making the availability of feedstock uncertain. In 2011, Kuwait imported about 245 MMcf/d of LNG, largely from Qatar and Nigeria. Kuwait’s electricity demand, fueled increasingly by natural gas, has outpaced natural gas production during the summer months, resulting in the shutdown of refinery and petrochemical operations to meet the increased demand of electricity. As such, Kuwait has resorted to importing LNG to make up for this supply gap.

    In June 2009, Kuwait signed a deal with Royal Dutch Shell to import LNG, receiving the first cargo in August 2009. KPC made another deal with the international energy trading firm, Vitol, in April 2010, which will supply Kuwait with LNG cargoes through 2013. Kuwait takes delivery of the LNG at the Persian Gulf’s first regasification terminal, Mina al-Ahmadi GasPort, a floating facility that has the flexibility to supply LNG to Kuwait during its periods of high seasonal demand. The regasification capacity of al-Ahmadi is approximately 500 MMcf/d of LNG.

    Kuwait has also recently exhibited interest in supplies from the impending natural gas project in Southern Iraq. Royal Dutch Shell, Mitsubishi, and Iraqi state-owned Southern Oil Company (SOC) are developing infrastructure to gather associated natural gas from Iraq’s southern oil fields. A potential pipeline from Iran’s South Pars gas field has been placed on hold, as political considerations make the project less likely. These prospective pipeline imports would still not mitigate the need for continued LNG imports.

    Electricity

    Kuwait’s electric sector capacity has been extremely slow to expand despite rapidly rising consumption rates over the past decade and persistent power shortages during peak demand periods.

    Kuwait relies on fossil fuels, oil and natural gas, to supply its electricity generation needs. The country struggles to produce and import sufficient natural gas to meet peak demand, and as a result, depends on more expensive fuel oil. In 2011, Kuwait had an installed electric generation capacity of 13.5 gigawatts (GW) and generated electricity at a 46-percent capacity factor, resulting in an average output of 6.3 GW. According to IHS, peak demand for 2010 was 10.5 GW and has increased every year since 2008. The rate of growth of generation is not keeping up with the rate of growth of demand, which means electricity is not flowing to the consumers as fast as the capability is built.

    Kuwait has come to embody the difficulties facing the region’s electricity networks, with rapid demand growth causing rolling blackouts at times of peak energy demand. Slow implementation of development plans rooted in the political infighting between the Emir and the National Assembly, as well as a lack of natural gas feedstock, has created chronic shortages in electricity supply during the hot summer months. Formerly having one of the largest reserve margins in the region, Kuwait is perpetually in a state of electricity supply shortage and experiences frequent blackouts and brownouts each summer. In the past decade, the development of Kuwait’s electricity sector has stalled because of political factors and lack of investment, despite average annual demand growth of 6 percent. Only one power plant was commissioned during that time, bringing a comfortable reserve margin to a shortage beginning in 2006. According to the World Bank, Kuwait was the world’s third largest electricity consumer on a per capita basis in 2010.

    Given the rapidly increasing demand over the past decade, the Kuwaiti government has unveiled an extensive development plan for the electric grid. Kuwait is in the planning stages to bring on an additional power plant, Al-Zour North, with a generating capacity of 1.5 GW by 2015 and plans to nearly double its generation capacity by 2017 in an effort to meet an anticipated peak demand of 25 GW by 2025. Most of this planned capacity will come from natural gas or oil, although Kuwait aims to generate 10 percent of its electricity from renewable sources by 2020 through capitalizing on its potential wind and solar potential.

    In order to achieve this, Kuwait intends to employ more private capital through public-private projects (PPP), as well as independent water and power projects (IWPP). Kuwait is the last Gulf country to incorporate the private sector into the development of its electric sector. The first evidence of private sector participation is the expansion project of the al-Subiya power plant built by General Electric (GE) and Hyundai Heavy Industries of South Korea. In July 2012, GE and Hyundai completed the 700 MW expansion of the power plant to its nameplate capacity of 2,000 MW. The power plant is a combined-cycle facility, using natural gas primarily, with fuel oil as a back-up. It is the first new power plant to become operational in over 20 years and expected to add needed generation capability to the electric system. Five other power plants, including al-Zour North, are in various stages of development to achieve the forecast capacity and bring an adequate buffer between peak demand and generation capacity.

    Graph showing Kuwait's electricity generation for 2001-2011
    Kuwaiti planned power plants
    Project Generation
    capacity
    Plant type
    Al-Zour North 4,800 MW
    (4 Phases)
    Gas Turbine
    Al-Julaia 1,000 MW Gas Turbine
    Shuwakh 2,000 MW Gas Turbine
    Shuaiba South 1,400 MW Steam Turbine
    Doha East 2,300 MW Steam Turbine
    Total Capacity 11,500 MW
    Source: Ministry of Electricity and Water, Middle East Economic Survey, Middle East Economic Digest

    Nuclear power

    Kuwait began planning to use nuclear energy in 2009 and announced its intention to establish a nuclear commission. Subsequently, in January 2010, the head of the National Nuclear Energy Committee announced a 20-year cooperative deal with the French Atomic Energy Commission to develop nuclear power in Kuwait. Kuwait was considering four nuclear power plants, set to become operational by 2022 and agreed to allow International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors into any future nuclear sites. However, following Japan‘s Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011, Kuwait dissolved its National Nuclear Energy Committee and decided to abandon its plans to produce nuclear power.

    Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) grid

    Facing rising electricity demand, the Gulf Cooperation Council, comprised of six Gulf countries, is developing an interconnected power grid.

    The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), of which Kuwait is a member, faces rapidly increasing demand growth in electricity. As a result, the six Gulf countries of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Oman began a region-wide power grid. This three-phase project, completed in late 2012, connected the Northern System—Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Qatar-to the Southern System— UAE, and Oman. Some analysts believe the GCC Grid has the potential to expand into North Africa and eventually link with Europe’s power grids. Kuwait has already had to import electricity from the Northern System, as it has been plagued by electricity supply shortfalls. In addition to meeting the growing electricity demands and sharing electricity reserve requirements in the Gulf States, the integrated power grids will reduce power outages in the short term and increase power exchange across seasons and time zones.

    Notes

    • Data presented in the text are the most recent available as of July 8, 2013.
    • Data are EIA estimates unless otherwise noted.

    Sources

    Agence France Presse

    APS Gas Market Trends

    APS Oil Market Trends

    APS Review Downstream Trends

    Arab Times

    Associated Press

    Business Monitor International

    Cambridge Energy Research Associates

    CIA World Factbook

    Dow Jones News Wire service

    Economist Intelligence Unit

    Energy Intelligence

    FACTS, Inc

    Financial Times

    Global Insight

    International Energy Agency

    Kuwait Petroleum International

    Kuwait Times

    Kuwaiti Foreign Petroleum Exploration Company

    Kuwaiti News Agency

    Middle East and Africa Oil and Gas Insights

    Middle East Economic Digest

    Middle East Economic Survey

    Oil and Gas Journal

    OPEC

    Petroleum Economist

    Petroleum Intelligence Weekly

    Saudi Gazette

    Stratfor.com

    Upstream Online

    U.S. Energy Information Administration

    Wall Street Journal

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    World Oil

  • Scientists Image Vast Subglacial Water System Underpinning West Antarctica’s Thwaites Glacier

    Scientists Image Vast Subglacial Water System Underpinning West Antarctica’s Thwaites Glacier

    July 9, 2013 — In a development that will help predict potential sea level rise from the Antarctic ice sheet, scientists from The University of Texas at Austin’s Institute for Geophysics have used an innovation in radar analysis to accurately image the vast subglacial water system under West Antarctica’s Thwaites Glacier. They have detected a swamp-like canal system beneath the ice that is several times as large as Florida’s Everglades.


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    The findings, as described this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, use new observational techniques to address long-standing questions about subglacial water under Thwaites, a Florida-sized outlet glacier in the Amundsen Sea Embayment considered a key factor in projections of global sea level rise. On its own, Thwaites contains enough fresh water to raise oceans by about a meter, and it is a critical gateway to the majority of West Antarctica’s potential sea level contribution of about 5 meters.

    The new observations suggest the dynamics of the subglacial water system may be as important as well recognized ocean influences in predicting the fate of Thwaites Glacier.

    Without an accurate characterization of the bodies of water deep under Thwaites, scientists have offered competing theories about their existence and organization, especially in the rapidly changing region where the glacier meets the ocean.

    Using an innovation in airborne ice-penetrating radar analysis developed by lead author Dusty Schroeder, a doctoral candidate at the Institute for Geophysics, the Texas team shows that Thwaites’ subglacial water system consists of a swamp-like canal system several times as large as Florida’s Everglades lying under the deep interior of the ice sheet, shifting to a series of mainly stream-like channels downstream as the glacier approaches the ocean.

    Scientists have attempted to use ice-penetrating radar to characterize subglacial water for many years, but technical challenges related to the effects of ice temperature on radar made it difficult to confirm the extent and organization of these water systems. Schroeder’s technique looking at the geometry of reflections solves this problem, because the temperature of the ice does not affect the angular distribution of radar energy.

    “Looking from side angles, we found that distributed patches of water had a radar signature that was reliably distinct from stream-like channels,” said Schroeder. He compared the radar signature to light glinting off the surface of many small interconnected ponds when viewed out of an airplane window.

    Distinguishing subglacial swamps from streams is important because of their contrasting effect on the movement of glacial ice. Swamp-like formations tend to lubricate the ice above them whereas streams, which conduct water more efficiently, are likely to cause the base of the ice to stick between the streams. (The effect is similar to the way rain grooves on a tire can help prevent a car from hydroplaning on a wet road.)

    As a result of this change in slipperiness, the glacier’s massive conveyor belt of ice piles up at the zone where the subglacial water system transitions from swamps to streams.

    This transition forms a stability point along a subglacial ridge that holds the massive glacier on the Antarctic continent.

    “This is where ocean and ice sheet are at war, on that sticking point, and eventually one of them is going to win,” said co-author Don Blankenship, a senior research scientist from the Institute for Geophysics.

    Observations of the subglacial stream-and-swamp dynamic and the sub-ice topography suggest that Thwaites Glacier is stable in the short term, holding its current position on the continent. However, the large pile of ice that has built up in the transition zone could rapidly collapse if undermined by the ocean warming or changes to the water system.

    “Like many systems, the ice can be stabilized until some external factor causes it to jump its stability point,” said Blankenship. “We now understand both how the water system is organized and where that dynamic is playing itself out. Our challenge is to begin to understand the timing and processes that will be involved when that stability is breached.”

    Current models predicting the fate of the glacier do not yet account for these dynamic, subglacial processes.

    The findings rely on radar data acquired during airborne geophysical surveys over West Antarctica by the Institute for Geophysics, with operational support from the National Science Foundation. The analysis was enabled through intensive supercomputing supported by the university’s Texas Advanced Computing Center.

    The research was funded through grants from the National Science Foundation and NASA, with additional support from both the Vetlesen Foundation and the Institute for Geophysics, which is a research unit of the university’s Jackson School of Geosciences.

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  • Anthony Ingraffea: Don’t label me an activist 20

    Anthony Ingraffea: Don’t label me an activist

    From left: Mark Ruffalo, Anthony Ingraffea and Sean Lennon are pictured. | AP Photo

    Ingraffea (center) says there’s a line between advocacy and activism. | AP Photo

    By TALIA BUFORD | 7/9/13 5:09 AM EDT

    Anthony Ingraffea doesn’t want people to call him an activist.

    Yes, the Cornell engineering professor is one of the researchers who inspired the fervent national debate on the dangers of fracking. He regularly speaks to anti-fracking groups, and he appears in the documentary “Gasland Part II,” which premiered Monday night on HBO.

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    Still, Ingraffea says there’s a line between advocacy and activism that he’s been careful not to cross. “I don’t think I need to go there yet,” he said.

    He’ll admit, though, that he uses the platform high-profile environmentalists provide to “amplify” his advocacy to compete with the natural gas industry’s advertising and public relations machine. But he’s also never led civil disobedience actions or been arrested as a part of a protest — unlike former NASA scientist Jim Hansen, another famed figure of the climate change movement.

    Ingraffea says his involvement falls “somewhere between.”

    “It’s not pure advocacy because if it were pure advocacy, I wouldn’t be seen in the company of activists,” he said in an interview with POLITICO. “But I also have to make an ethical and moral judgment about how far I’m willing to take my advocacy.”

    To both supporters and opponents of hydraulic fracturing, he’s best known as co-author of the 2011 scientific paper that labeled the methane emissions from shale gas a potentially greater danger for the Earth’s climate than coal.

    Time Magazine named Ingraffea and co-author Robert Howarth among 2011’s “People Who Mattered” — along with actor and activist Mark Ruffalo — for escalating fracking to a national environmental issue. He’s been photographed posing with anti-fracking celebrities Ruffalo, Sean Lennon and Yoko Ono. And Ingraffea tagged along with director Josh Fox in June during a press junket for “Gasland Part II.”

    He’s also drawn harsh criticism. Critics labeled his 2011 paper “junk science” or misleading — much the same way they attacked Fox’s original Oscar-nominated movie “Gasland.”

    Energy in Depth, an industry-backed education organization, isn’t a fan of Ingraffea but says that’s not because of the company he keeps.

    “His research hasn’t been criticized or discounted because he’s an activist,” Energy in Depth spokesman Chris Tucker said. “His research has been discounted because it’s been poorly done and demonstrably so.”

    Indeed, some of the conclusions of Ingraffea’s study have been contradicted by more recent studies from Carnegie Mellon University and other Cornell researchers. Ingraffea and Howarth have stood by their conclusions.

    Without taking sides in the debate, President Barack Obama’s new climate strategy calls for creating a “comprehensive” approach to reducing methane emissions from sources including agriculture, coal mines, landfills and natural gas production. The plan notes that methane “has a global warming potential that is more than 20 times greater than carbon dioxide.”

    All the criticism doesn’t bother Ingraffea, he said.

    Ingraffea said he welcomes the additional scrutiny of his and Howarth’s conclusions — and, by default, scrutiny of the natural gas industry. One of the major conclusions of their study, he said, is that more study and better data were needed on methane emissions from natural gas.

    Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2013/07/anthony-ingraffea-dont-label-me-an-activist-93839.html#ixzz2YcfqJHQU

  • New UN report shows global refugee numbers hit 18-year high last year

    Updated: JUN 20, 2013

    New UN report shows global refugee numbers hit 18-year high last year

       New UN report shows global refugee numbers hit 18-year high last year

    The UN report shows the world has more than 45.2-million refugees or internally displaced people as of 2012.
    The annual Global Trends report released by the United Nations High Commission for Refugees on Wednesday says the number has hit a 18-year high.
    A majority of the refugees come from Middle Eastern countries, including Afghanistan, Somalia, Iraq, Sudan and Syria.
    The UN refugee agency’s High Commissioner Antonio Guterres says the current figure will mushroom even further when taking into account this year’s surge of refugees from the crisis in Syria.

    “I have no doubt the Syrian crisis is not only one of the most dramatic humanitarian crisis we have faced since the Cold War, but is the most dangerous one”

    Guterres also noted a couple of worrisome trends.
    One trend indicates a faster rate of refugee outflow, or the faster rate at which people are being forced into displacement.
    The report shows there is a new refugee or internally displaced person every four seconds.
    Another trend is that developing countries, with per-capita GDP of less than 5-thousand dollars, are hosting more refugees than developed countries.
    Developing countries host more than 80-percent of the world’s refugees last year compared to 70 percent a decade ago.
    Korea, a hosting country of around 3-hundred-30 refugees, set a new law which is to take effect starting July 1st.
    The Refugee Act is aimed at making it easier for internally displaced people to obtain the right to stay in Korea.
    Measures include more comprehensive support in terms of education and employment to help displaced people start a new life.
    Kim Ji-yeon, Arirang News.

    Reporter : jiyeonkim@arirang.co.kr