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The increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events could cost the world 328 billion euros ($421 billion) per year by 2030, the Red Cross and the European Commission warned on Monday.
“Disasters take lives and ruin prospects, often making the situation of already impoverished people even worse,” said European Union Commissioner for International Cooperation, Humanitarian Aid and Crisis Response Kristalina Georgieva in a news release from the Red Cross on Monday.
The warning came as the Red Cross—a global humanitarian aid charity—and the European Commission—the executive body of the European Union—launched a joint communications campaign on the importance of preparing for disasters.
In the last 20 years, the impact of extreme weather has affected 4.4 billion people worldwide, killing 1.3 million people and causing 1.5 trillion euros in economic losses, according to the Red Cross. It calculates that every 0.77 euros spent on disaster risk reduction saves 11.47 euros in return.
This year, several European countries have suffered severe flooding. In May, floods hit entire regions of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia, resulting in several dozens of casualties in both countries. Damages and economic losses amount to around 2 billion euros in Bosnia and 1.5 billion euros in Serbia.
Read MoreSerbia comes in from the cold with EU ambitions
Earlier in the year, heavy storms flooded around 6,000 homes in the U.K. The country experienced the wettest January on record and widespread flooding continued into February.
The Red Cross/European Commission warning came one day ahead of the United Nations’ Climate Summit in New York.
Although the Red Cross drew no direct link between extreme weather events and climate change in its news release, it forecast that around 375 million people would be hit by climate-related disasters each year by 2015.
Last week, a report by the Global Commission on the Economy and Climate concluded that action against climate change need not sacrifice economic growth—despite widely held views to the contrary.
“The low-carbon growth path can lead to as much prosperity as the high-carbon one, especially when account is taken of its multiple other benefits: from greater energy security to cleaner air and improved health,” concluded the 70-page Better Growth Better Climate report, which was published last Tuesday.
Read MoreIs climate change key to the spread of Ebola?
World energy demand will grow by a third by 2030, according to Felipe Calderon, the former president of Mexico who chairs the global; climate commission. During that time, some $90 trillion is seen being invested in infrastructure affecting the world’s cities, land use and energy systems.
For climate change activists like Calderon, this represents an opportunity to move away from reliance on high-carbon pollutants.
At present, carbon usage varies widely across developed world cities. According to Calderon, carbon emissions per person from public and private transportation in Atlanta, Georgia, are 10 times higher than in Barcelona, Spain. The U.S. city is marked by urban sprawl and spotty public transport, while Spain’s second-biggest city is more compact and has invested heavily in mass transit.
“We are not suggesting decoupling economic growth from energy demands; but decoupling from carbon emissions,” said Calderon.
“Although many jobs will be created, and there will be larger markets and profits for many businesses, some jobs will also be lost, particularly in high-carbon sectors,” said the authors of the report.
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ScienceDaily: Your source for the latest research news
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Climatologists offer explanation for widening of Earth’s tropical belt
Date:
March 18, 2014
Source:
University of California – Riverside
Summary:
Climatologists posit that the recent widening of the tropical belt is primarily caused by multi-decadal sea surface temperature variability in the Pacific Ocean. This variability includes the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (a long-lived El Niño-like pattern of Pacific climate variability) and anthropogenic pollutants, which act to modify the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Until now there was no clear explanation for what is driving the widening.
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A cool-water anomaly known as La Niña occupied the tropical Pacific Ocean throughout 2007 and early 2008. In April 2008, scientists at NASA’s …
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Credit: NASA image by Jesse Allen, AMSR-E data processed and provided by Chelle Gentemann and Frank Wentz, Remote Sensing Systems
[Click to enlarge image]
Recent studies have shown that Earth’s tropical belt — demarcated, roughly, by the Tropics of Cancer and Capricorn — has progressively expanded since at least the late 1970s. Several explanations for this widening have been proposed, such as radiative forcing due to greenhouse gas increase and stratospheric ozone depletion.
Now, a team of climatologists, led by researchers at the University of California, Riverside, posits that the recent widening of the tropical belt is primarily caused by multi-decadal sea surface temperature variability in the Pacific Ocean. This variability includes the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), a long-lived El Niño-like pattern of Pacific climate variability that works like a switch every 30 years or so between two different circulation patterns in the North Pacific Ocean. It also includes, the researchers say, anthropogenic pollutants, which act to modify the PDO.
Study results appear March 16 in Nature Geoscience.
“Prior analyses have found that climate models underestimate the observed rate of tropical widening, leading to questions on possible model deficiencies, possible errors in the observations, and lack of confidence in future projections,” said Robert J. Allen, an assistant professor of climatology in UC Riverside’s Department of Earth Sciences, who led the study. “Furthermore, there has been no clear explanation for what is driving the widening.”
Now Allen’s team has found that the recent tropical widening is largely driven by the PDO.
“Although this widening is considered a ‘natural’ mode of climate variability, implying tropical widening is primarily driven by internal dynamics of the climate system, we also show that anthropogenic pollutants have driven trends in the PDO,” Allen said. “Thus, tropical widening is related to both the PDO and anthropogenic pollutants.”
Widening concerns
Tropical widening is associated with several significant changes in our climate, including shifts in large-scale atmospheric circulation, like storm tracks, and major climate zones. For example, in Southern California, tropical widening may be associated with less precipitation.
Of particular concern are the semi-arid regions poleward of the subtropical dry belts, including the Mediterranean, the southwestern United States and northern Mexico, southern Australia, southern Africa, and parts of South America. A poleward expansion of the tropics is likely to bring even drier conditions to these heavily populated regions, but may bring increased moisture to other areas.
Widening of the tropics would also probably be associated with poleward movement of major extratropical climate zones due to changes in the position of jet streams, storm tracks, mean position of high and low pressure systems, and associated precipitation regimes. An increase in the width of the tropics could increase the area affected by tropical storms (hurricanes), or could change climatological tropical cyclone development regions and tracks.
Belt contraction
Allen’s research team also showed that prior to the recent (since ~1980 onwards) tropical widening, the tropical belt actually contracted for several decades, consistent with the reversal of the PDO during this earlier time period.
“The reversal of the PDO, in turn, may be related to the global increase in anthropogenic pollutant emissions prior to the ~ early 1980s,” Allen said.
Analysis
Allen’s team analyzed IPCC AR5 (5th Assessment Report) climate models, several observational and reanalysis data sets, and conducted their own climate model experiments to quantify tropical widening, and to isolate the main cause.
“When we analyzed IPCC climate model experiments driven with the time-evolution of observed sea surface temperatures, we found much larger rates of tropical widening, in better agreement to the observed rate–particularly in the Northern Hemisphere,” Allen said. “This immediately pointed to the importance of sea surface temperatures, and also suggested that models are capable of reproducing the observed rate of tropical widening, that is, they were not ‘deficient’ in some way.”
Encouraged by their findings, the researchers then asked the question, “What aspect of the SSTs is driving the expansion?” They found the answer in the leading pattern of sea surface temperature variability in the North Pacific: the PDO.
They supported their argument by re-analyzing the models with PDO-variability statistically removed.
“In this case, we found tropical widening — particularly in the Northern Hemisphere — is completely eliminated,” Allen said. “This is true for both types of models–those driven with observed sea surface temperatures, and the coupled climate models that simulate evolution of both the atmosphere and ocean and are thus not expected to yield the real-world evolution of the PDO.
“If we stratify the rate of tropical widening in the coupled models by their respective PDO evolution,” Allen added, “we find a statistically significant relationship: coupled models that simulate a larger PDO trend have larger tropical widening, and vice versa. Thus, even coupled models can simulate the observed rate of tropical widening, but only if they simulate the real-world evolution of the PDO.”
Future work
Next, the researchers will be looking at how anthropogenic pollutants, by modifying the PDO and large scale weather systems, have affected precipitation in the Southwest United States, including Southern California.
“Future emissions pathways show decreased pollutant emissions through the 21st century, implying pollutants may continue to drive a positive PDO and tropical widening,” Allen said.
Story Source:
The above story is based on materials provided by University of California – Riverside. The original article was written by Iqbal Pittalwala. Note: Materials may be edited for content and length.
Journal Reference:
Robert J. Allen, Joel R. Norris, Mahesh Kovilakam. Influence of anthropogenic aerosols and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on tropical belt width. Nature Geoscience, 2014; DOI: 10.1038/ngeo2091
Sept. 22, 2014: Arctic sea ice coverage continued its below-average trend this year as the ice declined to its annual minimum on Sept. 17, according to the NASA-supported National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) at the University of Colorado, Boulder.
“Arctic sea ice coverage in 2014 is the sixth lowest recorded since 1978,” said Walter Meier, a research scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland.
Over the 2014 summer, Arctic sea ice melted back from its maximum extent reached in March to a coverage area of 1.94 million square miles (5.02 million square kilometers), according to analysis from NASA and NSIDC scientists. This year’s minimum extent is similar to last year’s and below the 1981-2010 average of 2.40 million square miles (6.22 million square km).
“The summer started off relatively cool, and lacked the big storms or persistent winds that can break up ice and increase melting,” said Meier. Nevertheless, the season ended with below-average sea ice. “Even with a relatively cool year, the ice is so much thinner than it used to be. It is more susceptible to melting,” he explained.
This summer, the Northwest Passage above Canada and Alaska remained ice-bound. A finger of open water stretched north of Siberia in the Laptev Sea, reaching beyond 85 degrees north, which is the farthest north open ocean has reached since the late 1970s, according to Meier.
While summer sea ice has covered more of the Arctic in the last two years than in 2012’s record low summer, this is not an indication that the Arctic is returning to average conditions, Meier said. This year’s minimum extent remains in line with a downward trend; the Arctic Ocean is losing about 13 percent of its sea ice per decade.
To measure sea ice extent, scientists include areas that are at least 15 percent ice-covered. The NASA-developed computer analysis, which is one of several methods scientists use to calculate extent, is based on data from NASA’s Nimbus 7 satellite, which operated from 1978 to 1987, and the U.S. Department of Defense’s Defense Meteorological Satellite Program, which has provided information since 1987.
In addition to monitoring sea ice from space, NASA is conducting airborne field campaigns to track changes in Arctic sea ice and its impact on climate. Operation IceBridge flights have been measuring Arctic sea ice and ice sheets for the past several years during the spring. A new field experiment, the Arctic Radiation – IceBridge Sea and Ice Experiment (ARISE) started this month to explore the relationship between retreating sea ice and the Arctic climate.
For more information on sea ice observations from space, visit http://nsidc.org/data/seaice/
Production editor: Dr. Tony Phillips | Credit: Science@NASA
More information:
NASA monitors Earth’s vital signs from land, air and space with a fleet of satellites and ambitious airborne and ground-based observation campaigns. NASA develops new ways to observe and study Earth’s interconnected natural systems with long-term data records and computer analysis tools to better see how our planet is changing. The agency shares this unique knowledge with the global community and works with institutions in the United States and around the world that contribute to understanding and protecting our home planet.
For more information about NASA’s Earth science activities in 2014, including the Operation IceBridge and ARISE airborne campaigns, visit http://www.nasa.gov/earthrightnow