NEWS

A list of extreme weather events observed around the world during the period December 2013 to end February 2014 has been put together by the World Meteorological Organization.[more]

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Computer models forecast an El Nino Pacific Ocean warming event in 2014, according to the latest update issued by Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology.[more]

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The recent slow down in the rise of global mean sea level which appears to have co-incided with the so called pause in global warming disappears once natural short-term variability – such as the affects of the El Nino-Southern…[more]

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There is a statistical link between Arctic sea ice concentration in September and the weather that Europe experiences through the following winter, new research has found, indicating that it is important to incorporate Arctic…[more]

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New research says that future heat waves will significantly reduce crop yields and threaten global food supply.[more]

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A 40 per cent cut in CO2 emissions across the EU can be achieved at a cost of less than 0.7 per cent of economic activity, say experts.[more]

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Leading atmospheric science researchers have pointed out in a new paper that extreme weather events will continue irrespective of climate change and that trying to link such events to global warming distracts attention from…[more]

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Here is the text of the February global climate report from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations (NOAA). Global mean surface temperatures in February 2014 were the 21st warmest in the dataset which goes back to…[more]

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Greenland’s contribution to sea-level rise was previously underestimated and needs to be accounted for in future projections, according to new research. A previously stable region of the Greenland ice sheet is undergoing dynamic…[more]

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Research suggests ocean mixing plays an important role in bringing iron and other nutrients to the surface to stimulate phytoplankton growth which helps support the ocean carbon cycle.[more]

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Scientists explain in a new Nature paper that geological processes are responsible for ensuring that the Earth remains capable of supporting life and does not turn into a hot Venus or cold Mars.[more]

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Two new papers show how analysing years of data Tibet and Himalayas can help better predict glacial response to global climate change.[more]

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Research points to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and anthropogenic pollutants as factors in widening the tropical belt.[more]

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A statistical “Bayesian hierarchical model” allows scientists to combine various sources of information as well as previous scientific knowledge to improve forecasts of changes in the oceans such as El Nino Pacific Ocean warming…[more]

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NASA’s Operation IceBridge has started a new mission flying aircraft instruments over the Greenland ice sheet and polar sea ice with one aim being to help calibrate satellite measurements.[more]

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Space observations have been used to help calculate how ocean life captures carbon dioxide and locks it away in biological materials.[more]

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More accurate measurements of ice sheet discharge rates have been made possible by a NASA radar study of the Greenland ice sheet.[more]

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The chances of an El Nino Pacific Ocean warming event later this year have increased, according to the latest report from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Computer forecasts agree that the Pacific sea surface will warm and…[more]

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Cooling from atmospheric particles and from ozone may mean that IPCC low-end estimates of climate sensitivity are wrong and need to be increased by 30 per cent, according to new research. NASA says this means long term global…[more]

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Aerosols from human pollution tend to weaken tropical cyclones according to a new paper in Nature Climate Change.[more]

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New research puts the sun in the frame for causing the Little Ice Age by triggering persistent blocking patterns in the atmosphere over the North Atlantic.[more]

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Four newly detected ozone-depleting substances started to emerge in the atmosphere in the 1960s, reports a study published online in Nature Geoscience. Although emissions of these compounds have been small, they are contrary to…[more]

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Europe will experience greater warming than the global average increase in surface temperatures, according to new research.[more]

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Arctic sea ice extent in February 2014 was the fourth lowest on record for the month and almost exactly in line with the long term trend decline while sea ice extent in the Antarctic remains significantly above average,…[more]

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Satellite data from the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) shows the February global temperature anomaly for the lower troposphere as measured by satellite was 0.172C compared with 0.203C in February 2013[more]

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Global temperatures will eventually rise by around 2C in response to a sustained doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide, according to new research. This is consistent with the lower end of the range set out last year by the…[more]

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New research projects a massive increase in financial losses due to floods in Europe over coming decades as the risk of flooding doubles, concludes a paper published online this week in Nature Climate Change.[more]

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Changes in the salinity of ocean surface waters due to climate change are inhibiting deep ocean mixing, encouraging ocean heat storage and contributing to the so called pause in global warming, according to new research.[more]

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Britain’s Royal Society and the US National Science Academy have issued a new report describing the facts of climate change in simple terms.[more]

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Climate models do not overestimate warming and the so called pause is due to a coincidence of a number of factors, according to new research.[more]

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The current mysterious growth in Antarctic sea ice to record levels will reverse, according to a new study based on computer models.[more]

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A new satellite to measure global rainfall and snow has been launched. Measuring precipitation globally is key for the study of the impacts of climate change.[more]

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The effectiveness of computer climate models is in dispute as a scientific argument over the ability of climate models to successfully simulate the so called global warming pause breaks out in the pages of Nature Climate Change.[more]

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Judging the effects of climate change on extinction may be easier than previously thought, according to a paper entitled, “Life history and spatial traits predict extinction risk due to climate change,” published today (26…[more]

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Here is NOAA’s report on the global climate in January 2014.[more]

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New research suggests that climate models may have overestimated global warming because they do not include the impact of aerosols from volcanic eruptions. The implication is that this may be a partial explanation of the so…[more]

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A new study will help predict sea level changes related to El Nino.[more]

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An increase in Arctic cyclones is linked to climate change, according to a study based on historical climate model simulations.[more]

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Researchers have warned in a new paper that attempts to mitigate the impact of global warming by injecting reflective particles into the upper atmosphere would create a severe threat unless the activity were maintained.[more]

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Parts of the world have witnessed a series of extreme weather conditions in the first six weeks of 2014, continuing a pattern that was set in December 2013, according to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).[more]

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New research published this week suggests a three-in-four chance of an El Nino Pacific Ocean warming event beginning in late 2014. Meanwhile the Australian Bureau of Meteorology says the current status of the so called El Nino…[more]

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MIT researchers find that the end-Permian extinction happened in just 60,000 years — much faster than earlier estimates – and appears to have been linked to an increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, possibly due to…[more]

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An article published online in Nature Climate Change today investigates how strengthened Pacific trade winds can account for 0.1C–0.2C of cooling through increased subsurface ocean heat uptake— this is enough to account for much…[more]

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A joint report issued by the UK Meteorological Office and the UK Centre of Ecology and Hydrology states that the recent stormy weather that has afflicted the British Isles is “consistent” with global warming although the two…[more]

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Satellite and local readings show that the rapid rise in sea-surface temperatures seen in the last quarter of the 20th century has significantly slowed in the past 15 years. The European Space Agency’s Climate Change Initiative…[more]

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January data for the global lower tropospheric temperature anomaly has been released by Remote Sensing Systems showing an anomaly of +0.262C above the long term average[more]

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Arctic lakes have been freezing up later in the year and thawing earlier, creating a winter ice season about 24 days shorter than it was in 1950, a University of Waterloo study has found.[more]

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Satellite data shows that Arctic sea ice is getting thicker as Antarctic sea ice extent continues to expand to near record levels, according to a report issued by the US National Snow and Ice Data Center, in Boulder Colorado,…[more]

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Satellite data from the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) shows the January global temperature anomaly for the lower troposphere was +0.291C compared with +0.497C for January 2013. [more]

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The WMO warns today in a press statement that global warming continues even though the rate of warming is uneven due to natural variations in the climate system.[more]

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Global average storm surge damages could increase to $100,000 billion per year by the end of century, if no adaptation action is taken, according to estimates in new research.[more]

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Global average storm surge damages could increase to $100,000 billion per year by the end of century, if no adaptation action is taken, according to estimates in new research.[more]

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As climate change warms the Earth’s surface the distribution of plant species could be affected, warns a new study. This report courtesy of the University of Arkansas.[more]

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Disappearing snow increases the risk of collapsing ice shelves in Antarctica that will release ice into the sea and so help increase sea levels, according to new research.[more]

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Computer models used by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) suggest that an El Nino Pacific Ocean warming event may be triggered later this year, according to the latest update on the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)…[more]

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Asian ozone pollution in Hawaii is tied to climate variability, according to new research published in Nature Geoscience. This report from Princeton University.[more]

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A reconstruction of the Met Office temperature record suggests that 2013 was, in fact, warmer than the El Nino year of 1998, that temperatures have been rising since 1998, that global warming continues and that the so called…[more]

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A new paper in Science highlights the uncertain role that aerosols play in climate change.[more]

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The sensitivity of the carbon cycle to tropical temperature variations has doubled, research shows.[more]

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The UK Meteorological Office has updated its HadCRUT4 annual temperature database to include figures for 2013. The data shows that 2013 tied with 2002 and 2009 as the sixth warmest year on record. This means that the so called…[more]

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The journal Science publishes results from a Polarstern expedition in the mostly unexplored South Pacific which discovered that dust blown out to land and falling onto the ocean affected the climate in the past[more]

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A recent paper suggests that the recent expansion of Antarctic ice is at odds with what computer models predict should happen as a result of the depletion of stratospheric ozone and the Antarctic ozone hole even though the…[more]

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New research suggests that forests played a key role in controlling atmospheric carbon dioxide levels in the past.[more]

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Assumptions about the absorption of carbon by the land in polar regions may be overestimated unless they take into account the emission of carbon by inland waters, according to new research.[more]

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A new paper claims to explain the paradox of why sea ice is growing in the Antarctic despite global warming. A combination of observational data and modelling reveals the potential significance of the north and tropical Atlantic…[more]

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Changing landscapes are to blame for increased flood risk and not global warming says new research. Here is the news release describing the findings of the research which has just been published in the Hydrological Sciences…[more]

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Researchers have found that air pollution over Asia – much of it coming from China – is impacting global air circulations.[more]

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The so called pause in global warming that has been apparent since the late 1990s may be due to air pollution and to a greater frequency of La Nina Pacific Ocean cooling events as well as to other factors such as volcanic…[more]

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The globally averaged temperature for 2013 tied with 2003 as the fourth warmest year since record keeping began in 1880, according to NOAA scientists. Here is the text of the NOAA press release and of the summary of the NOAA…[more]

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NASA scientists say 2013 tied with 2009 and 2006 for the seventh warmest year since 1880. While this appears to confirm that the so called pause in global warming that began around 1998 appears to have continued in 2013, NASA…[more]

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Extreme weather events fuelled by unusually strong El Ninos, such as the 1983 heatwave that led to the Ash Wednesday bushfires in Australia, are likely to double in number as our planet warms, according to researchers from the…[more]

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New research shows that historic changes in the water cycle were the main drivers of widespread environmental change in western Europe. This has implications for the impact of the water cycle on climate change today.[more]

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NASA searches for climate change clues in the gateway to the stratosphere using a Global Hawk research aircraft. This is the Airborne Tropical Tropopause Experiment (ATTREX).[more]

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Analysis by the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum suggests that the European Union could achieve a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions to help offset climate change at relatively moderate cost. This news report…[more]

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The United States, China, Russia, Brazil, India, Germany and the United Kingdom are named as the seven countries accounting for most of the temperature increase believed to be due to climate change, according to a new study. This…[more]

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A study published today highlights growing threat of intense tropical cyclones hitting East Asia. The intensity of such storms has increased over the last 30 years. This is consistent with what many climate scientists would…[more]

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Key species of algae show the effects of climate change over time, according to new research.[more]

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Unprecedented levels of chlorine have been found in the atmosphere of the Arctic. Chlorine affects atmospheric chemistry and can oxidise greenhouse gas methane and affect the Arctic ecosystem.[more]

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Climate change is expected to increase food costs but growth of bioenergy to help mitigate global warming will increase food costs by less, according to research published today in three papers from the Potsdam Institute for…[more]

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Scientists studying the area where the future retreat of the marine-based West Antarctic Ice Sheet would be arrested have discovered a huge trench under the ice.[more]

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The stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and its likely contribution to sea level rise will be the focus of major international research efforts, according to the British Antarctic Survey (BAS). These research efforts have…[more]

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Reduced solar output may be behind the pause according to a new paper by Peter Stauning of the Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark.[more]

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The El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains in a neutral state and is likely to remain in this state for the next few months according to the latest report issued by the Australian Bureau Of Meteorology (BOM) on Tuesday 14…[more]

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Barely two weeks after a report in Science suggested that La Nina had slowed the melt rate of the Pine Island Glacier in Antarctica, new research by French scientists published in Nature Climate Change suggests that the glacier…[more]

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Research suggests that the public have a negative view of engineering the environment as a way of dealing with climate change.[more]

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A new paper published today in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, an open access journal of the European Geosciences Union (EGU), warns that droughts in Europe will become more frequent and more intense. Here is the text of the…[more]

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Daily sea ice growth rates were variable during December. By the end of the month, ice extent remained below average in most of the far north. In Antarctica, ice extent remained above average and access to the continent by ship…[more]

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Carbon content in soil influences climate models. Scientists have now discovered how organic carbon is stored in soil.[more]

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US scientists embark on a major study of how the western Pacific influences the climate as part of the CONTRAST project.[more]

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Satellite instruments report that the global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for December 2013 is +0.27 deg. C, up from +0.19 deg. C in November. This makes 2013 the forth warmest year in the satellite data…[more]

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Last year was the hottest year on record in Australia according to Austalia’s Bureau of Meteorology[more]

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New research published in Science suggests that the dissolution of methane hydrates off Svalbard are caused by natural processes and not by global warming.[more]

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Research suggests that the Pine Island Glacier in West Antarctica is even more susceptible to climate variability than previously thought and that ocean melting of the ice fell by half between 2010 and 2012 possibly due to the La…[more]

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New research published in Nature suggests that clouds have a large positive impact on the climate’s sensitivity to carbon dioxide and that they accelerate global warming. The issue of the role of clouds in climate change and…[more]

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Liquid water found in the Greenland ice sheet could affect estimates of future sea level rise.[more]

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A new paper published today contradicts the belief that long warm and cold periods in the past were caused by changes in the sun.[more]

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Research conducted by a team that included scientists from British Antarctic Survey (BAS) reveals the ocean current moving around the South Pole flowed at much the same speed in the last ice age as it has done in much more recent…[more]

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On the eve of the centenary year of Ernest Shackleton’s Endurance Expedition the ship which bears his name is playing a crucial role in the 2013/2014 British Antarctic Survey (BAS) field season which will include investigating…[more]

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Britain’s Meteorological Office is forecasting that 2014 will be one of the ten warmest years on record with a forecast global mean surface temperature similar to that forecast for 2013. The implication of this is that the Met…[more]

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Geoengineering the planet to counteract global warming and climate change raises major ethical issues.[more]

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History of Geology Home

A Concise History of Geological Maps: Beneath this Map, there is an Igneous Idea

By David Bressan | March 29, 2014 |  1

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About the Author: Freelance geologist dealing with quaternary outcrops interested in the history and the development of geological concepts through time. Follow on Twitter @David_Bressan. More »
The views expressed are those of the author and are not necessarily those of Scientific American.

Posted on March 29, 2014 by Climate Science Watch

The IPCC climate change assessment report on Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, to be released in Japan on March 31, highlights the grave risks we face as the climate changes. But some news coverage previewing the release has focused on the views of Richard Tol, an IPCC author who opted to withdraw from the author team drafting the report summary to seek a larger spotlight for his outlier views.

Earlier March 29 post: Previewing the new IPCC assessment of risks of climate change impacts

The following is a guest post by Climate Nexus (text in PDF format here):

Outlier Scientist Seeks Spotlight as New IPCC Report

Outlines Climate Risks

As hundreds of scientists work to come to consensus on a summary of global climate change impacts and vulnerabilities, an outlier scientist has sought a larger spotlight for his fringe views. The Working Group II (WGII) report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), to be released in Japan on March 31, highlights the grave risks we face as the climate changes. But some news coverage previewing the release has focused on the views of Dr. Richard Tol, an IPCC author who opted to withdraw from the author team drafting the report summary (known as the Summary for Policymakers) due to what he claimed were the “alarmist” nature of early drafts. In fact, the summary is a conservative portrayal of the state of climate science understanding.

• Tol’s outlier views underscore the IPCC’s role as a consensus document, attempting to bring in as many diverse viewpoints as possible. That includes those such as Tol with connections to climate skeptic groups. Tol may have been dissatisfied with this process, but he had the same opportunity as any scientist.
• The report ultimately reflects the fact that Tol’s work is outside the mainstream. According to a leaked copy of the current draft, the report finds that the impacts of climate change are and will continue to be negative. It doesn’t “conceal” the benefits of climate change in localized areas, but it makes it clear that the balance of impacts is harmful overall. The report also shows there are limits to the potential for adaptation.
• The report shows how important it is to begin reducing emissions immediately. We’ve already caused some warming, and there’s more on the way. Our choice now is to reduce emissions and experience the impacts of moderate warming, or delay and experience extreme warming. Voices such as Tol that promote the “benefits” of warming are presenting a false choice.

Impacts of warming are negative, both for agriculture and GDP.

The WG2 draft report is clear that agricultural impacts of climate change are negative (Summary for Policymakers, p.3 line 15). The report doesn’t hide the fact that some areas will experience positive agricultural impacts, but it concludes that negative impacts will outweigh positive impacts on a global scale, now and into the future. A recent literature review backs up this claim, reviewing negative impacts on yield for warming of 2ºC. The report also concludes that crop markets are sensitive to climate extremes, judging by recent spikes in food prices following extreme events in key producer countries (SPM p.3 line 15).

In interviews Tol has dismissed this finding, saying, “They will adapt. Farmers aren’t stupid.” But the report is also clear that adaptation carries costs and limits. For example, as warming approaches 4ºC, even the best adaptations will not be able to avoid serious threats to food security (WG2 SPM p.10 line 19). And this is occurring in a world where global demand for food is expected to increase.

With respect to global GDP, the WG2 report offers cost estimates only up to 2.5ºC of warming. These impacts are negative, estimated to cost up to 2% of global income, which is acknowledged to be only a partial estimate. In fact, the costs of 2.5ºC of warming laid out in WG2 are something of a best-case scenario (or at least a reasonably good scenario), showing what will happen IF we take strong action to reduce carbon emissions. If we do not take action on climate mitigation, we could be experiencing around 4ºC of warming by 2100 according to the business as usual (RCP 8.5) scenario (WGI Annex II Table 7.5). That’s uncharted territory and possible even within the lifetimes of some who are alive today.

Other estimates suggest the high impacts on global GDP with warming of 4ºC (For example the Stern Review found impacts of 5-20% of global GDP). GDP also does not fully account for humanitarian disasters to poorer countries. Extreme impacts in poor, tropical areas (which are expected to be the first to experience the most severe disasters) may not significantly affect global GDP because of the low standard of living – but they still matter. Reports like the World Bank’s Turn Down the Heat portray likely consequences for vulnerable populations.

Discussing benefits of warming presents a false choice.

Furthermore, even Tol acknowledges that warming will be detrimental at high levels, which is where we’re headed without climate mitigation. In fact, we may already be committed to half of the 3ºC of “moderate” warming that Tol believes will be beneficial. This means that our choice is between reducing emissions in order to experience moderate (rather than severe) warming, or doing nothing and experiencing severe warming, beyond 4ºC. As Tol wrote in a 2009 paper: “The climate responds rather slowly to changes in greenhouse gas emissions. The initial warming can no longer be avoided; it should be viewed as a sunk benefit.” Some are spinning Tol’s work to present a false choice between no warming and moderate warming, but this isn’t really an option available to us. Action now is advisable under any plausible climate scenario: the risks are simply too high to wait.

The WGII summary is a consensus product with many voices.

The IPCC included Tol as an author despite his connections to the Global Warming Policy Foundation, which has repeatedly attacked the IPCC, refused to disclose its funding sources, and promoted questionable science. But the report is a consensus document, and if the literature does not support a viewpoint, it won’t be emphasized. As Bob Ward, policy and communications director of the Grantham Research Unit on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics, told Reuters: “Of the 19 studies he surveyed only one shows net positive benefits from warming. And it’s the one he wrote.” As the author of the underlying chapter on economic impacts, Tol himself ended up detailing the negative net impacts of climate change. Yet, he is contesting a summary of the whole report that is consistent with the findings of his chapter. The real consensus shows that climate change is serious and detrimental, and we need to act now to stop it.