Author: Neville

  • Average Swings at Federal By-elections 1983-2013 antony green

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    January 23, 2014

    Average Swings at Federal By-elections 1983-2013

    Since 1983, the average swing against the government of the day in by-elections that finished as two-party contests has been 5.1 percentage points. The average swing against first term governments was a smaller 1.7 percentage points. The swing has been against the government at six of the eight first term two-party by-elections held since 1983.

    Altogether there were 36 by-elections held between 1983 and 2013. Of these, 18 finished as two-party contests between Labor and the Coalition, two saw one of the major party candidates excluded, and 16 by-elections were not contested by the government of the day.

    It has become more common in recent years for governments to not contest by-elections in safe Opposition seats. Labor under Hawke and Keating contest 16 of the 22 by-elections between 1983 and 1996, the Coalition under John Howard contested three of nine by-elections, and Labor under Kevin Rudd contested one of five by-elections.

    Looking at the 18 two-party by-elections between 1983 and 2013, the average swings were as follows:

    • The average swing against the government after preferences for all 18 by-elections was 5.1 percentage points. The average change in first preference votes was 6.2 percentage points against the Government, 4.2 percentage points towards the Opposition, and 2.0 percentage points to Others. Governments tended to get their best by-election results in their first term.
    • The sample includes eight by-election in the first term of a government. The average swing against the government after preferences in the first term was 1.7 percentage points. The change in first preference vote share was Government -1.9, Opposition +3.3, Others -1.4.
    • The sample includes three by-elections held in the second term of a government. The average swing against the government after preferences in the second term was 5.9 percentage points. The change in first preference vote share was Government -6.7, Opposition +3.7, Others +3.0.
    • The sample includes three by-elections held in the third term of a government. The average swing against the government after preferences in the third term was 10.4 percentage points. The change in first preference vote share was Government -12.0, Opposition +8.0, Others +3.9.
    • The sample included no by-election in a fourth term but four by-elections held in the fifth term of a government. The average swing against the government after preferences in the fifth term was 7.3 percentage points. The change in first preference vote share was Government -10.2, Opposition +3.8, Others +6.4.
    • There were only three by-elections that recorded a swing to the government. These were a 0.5% swing to Labor at the 1984 Richmond by-election, retained by the National Party. There was a 1% swing to Labor at the 1994 Fremantle by-election when popular former WA Premier Carmen Lawrence was elected to Federal Parliament. There was a 5.0% to the Liberal Party at the 1996 Lindsay by-election when Jackie Kelly was re-elected after her general election victory had been voided by the Court of Disputed Returns.
    • Despite massive leads in opinion polls, the Hawke government sufferred swings against it at five of the six by-elections held in its first term 1983-84.
    • Despite a massive lead in opinion polls, the Rudd government suffered an 8.1% swing against it at the Gippsland by-election in 2008.

    While it can be argued there is no such thing as an ‘average’ by-election, the above figures provide some historical context for the upcoming Griffith by-election.

    For background on the Griffith by-election and profiles of the candidates, check out my Griffith by-election page at http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2014/griffith/. The site also includes more detail on past elections, including the source data from which the above by-election analysis has been compiled.

    Posted by on January 23, 2014 at 10:48 PM in By-election,

  • Australia’s drinking water is at risk from extreme weather, a new study says.

     

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    SYDNEY, Jan. 22 (UPI) — Australia’s drinking water is at risk from extreme weather, a new study says.The study, commissioned by the United States-based Water Research Foundation, says flooding, prolonged rainfall, drought, cyclones and bush fires impact surface water quality. Such weather events, it says, are predicted to become more frequent and intense in many parts of Australia due to climate change.

    “We need to focus on building resilience into our future supplies,” said Stuart Khan, an associate professor of the school of civil and environmental engineering at the University of New South Wales, and lead author of the report, in a news release.

    “This means designing systems that are more protected from the impacts of climate change and that have greater flexibility to respond to extreme weather events. This could be partially brought about through a diversification of water sources.”

    The report comes as Australia broke another heat wave record, with the temperature in Adelaide, the capital of South Australia, reaching 114.8 degrees Friday. Bush fires raged across the southeast last week, with more than 100 blazes in South Australia, Victoria and New South Wales.

    In Queensland, 26 local government areas are now drought declared, covering almost 65 percent of the state.

    Bush fires, for example, can cause ash and phosphorus to enter waterways which feed drinking water catchments, while extreme hot weather speeds up the growth of bacteria that can prove harmful to humans.

    Although Australian water utilities are “reasonably well prepared to respond to extreme weather events” because of an industry-wide focus on risk assessment and risk management, Khan said, the vulnerability of the country’s water systems requires urgent action.

    Australia has for the most part avoided potable water emergencies.

    Amid heavy flooding last year, Brisbane came close to running out of drinking water when the city’s main water treatment plant was knocked out by a huge volume of silt that had washed down from catchments.

    “The one thing that saved them was the ability to ramp up water production from the Gold Coast desalination plant at that time,” Khan told the Sydney Morning Herald.

    The biggest risk to water supply follows a combination of extreme weather events, such as a drought followed by bush fires and then a flood, rather than an extreme but isolated event.

    In 2009, Melbourne’s water supplies avoided a major threat after massive bush fires because heavy rain did not follow those blazes.

    But Hahn warns, “As we see these events happening more frequently, it’s likely the impacts will become more severe.”

  • Population and Sustainability: Addressing the Taboo

    by Stuart Jeanne Bramhall / January 22nd, 2014

    Population control is a taboo topic in most sustainability circles. It shouldn’t be. According to a University of Oregon study, childbearing is the number one carbon intensive activity. Having just one has twenty times the impact of a lifetime of carbon frugality.

    How Many People Can the Earth Support?

    The human species lives on a finite planet with finite resources. Growing evidence suggests we have already exceeded the earth’s carrying capacity. WHO and World Hunger data reveal our current system of industrial agriculture only feeds 84% of the global population. At present nearly a billion people (out of 7 billion) die of starvation or malnutrition-related disease.

    I used to believe that third world hunger stemmed purely from inequality and maldistribution of food resources. Now I’m not so sure. In the past five years, desertification, extreme weather events, increasing fossil fuel prices*, water scarcity and topsoil depletion have caused global food production to level out and start to decline.

    The Good News

    The good news is that fertility rates are already dropping. According to the CIA (the official source of international fertility data), the current global fertility rate is 2.45 births per woman. This is down from 2.50 in 2011 and 2.90 in 2006.

    Demographers attribute the drop in third world fertility rates to massive urbanization and the entry of women into the workforce. In the developed world, declining fertility rates seem more closely linked to worsening economic conditions. In Japan, which has been in continuous recession for two decades, the fertility rate is 1.39. In Greece it’s 1.40, in Italy 1.41.

    At a global fertility rate of 2.45, the world will reach replacement rate (2.1 births per woman), between 2020 and 2030 and peak at 8.5 billion in 2030.

    At present the planet only feeds 5.88 billion people. Could we feed 8.5 billion? Possibly. If they all gave up meat and we dug up a few thousand parking lots and returned them to food production.

    Dropping Fertility Rates: A Capitalist’s Worst Nightmare

    The bad news is the enormous pressure Wall Street exerts to keep birth rates high. Declining population growth threatens the robust economic growth our current economic system relies on.

    Like a pyramid scheme, monopoly capitalism is based on the continual creation of new debt. Perpetual economic growth is essential to repay this ever increasing debt. Without it, the pyramid collapses.

    The Pressure to Have Babies

    At present the US and New Zealand are tied for the second highest fertility rate (at 2.6) in the industrialized word (France is highest at 2.8). The first two countries share two specific population drivers: a high rate of teen pregnancy and the bombardment of young women with constant pro-baby media messaging.

    The US is number one in the developed world for teen pregnancy. New Zealand is number two. Although Kiwi teenagers have excellent access to reproductive services (including abortion) through our national health service, there’s no effort to provide effective sex education in our public schools.

    Meanwhile, thanks to the capture of New Zealand popular culture by American mass media, Kiwi girls are bombarded with the same well-oiled messaging about the new feminine mystique: that without thin, perfect bodies, faces, hair, husbands and babies, they are utterly worthless as women.

    In the US, teenage girls have abysmal access to both sex education and contraception. It’s tempting to blame this on the rise of the religious right. I think the issue deserves more scrutiny. A close look at the millionaires and billionaires who have facilitated the boom in right wing fundamentalism suggests they have cynical economic reasons for furthering policies that ensure robust US population growth.

    We Need a Movement

    Clearly activists who are genuine about curbing carbon emissions must give population control the same priority they give changing light bulbs, installing solar panels and reducing car trips. We’re not talking mandatory sterilization, abortion or eugenics – but voluntary steps people can take to curb their fertility.

    So what does a population control movement look like? First, it’s got lots of men in it. Access to affordable abortion and contraception is no longer a woman’s issue – it deeply affects all of us. Growthbusters guru Dave Gardner clearly does his part by handing out endangered species condoms in the street.

    Secondly, it works to actively counteract Wall Street messaging that pressurizes women to have more babies. The sustainability movement is successfully counteracting messages to consume more and incur more debt. There’s no reason we can’t do the same with pro-baby messaging. There are numerous advantages to remaining childless. We need to promote them. 

    Finally, it actively campaigns to reduce teen pregnancy. There’s absolutely no reason why the Christian right should have a monopoly on pregnancy counseling. Progressives and liberals need to start our own rape crisis and sex education clinics, comparable to the “birth right” counseling movement. If the schools won’t do it, we need to educate teenage girls about debt rape and where they can obtain free and low cost contraception and morning after pills.

    During the sixties, activists concerned about oppression in the schools, medical system, and other pro-corporate entities started their own alternative schools, clinics, abortion centers and child care programs. It’s time we followed their example.

    *Fossil fuels are essential for industrial agriculture. In addition to fueling farm machinery, the fertilizers, pesticides and herbicides used in factory farming also derive from fossil fuels.

    Dr. Stuart Bramhall is an American child and adolescent psychiatrist and political refugee in New Zealand. Her works include a young adult novel The Battle for Tomorrow about a 16 year old girl who participates in the blockade and occupation of the US Capitol and a memoir, The Most Revolutionary Act: Memoir of an American Refugee. Email her at: stuartbramhall@yahoo.co.nz. Read other articles by Stuart Jeanne.

    This article was posted on Wednesday, January 22nd, 2014 at 5:53pm and is filed under Capitalism, Environmentalists, Food/Nutrition, Sustainability, Water.

     


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  • Transport Minister Gladys Berejiklian: Do my commute for a day – try to use Sydney trains in a wheelchair

    Why this ad?
    Languages & Int Businessune.edu.au/Languages-Business – Online Languages & International Business degree with UNE, Feb 2014

    This is “very passionate”?!

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    Pauline David via Change.org mail@change.org
    4:50 PM (8 minutes ago)

    to me
    Change.org
    NEVILLE – There’s a new petition taking off on Change.org, and we think you might be interested in signing it:

    Transport Minister Gladys Berejiklian: Do my commute for a day – try to use Sydney trains in a wheelchair

    By Pauline David
    Fairfield NSW

    Getting around on our train network is hellish. I don’t think the government understand just how bad it is.

    That’s just another day for us disabled train commuters in Sydney. The services are terrible: whether it’s being put in the wrong section of the train, not being able to get a ramp, or being described as “a wheelchair” — not a person — there’s so much that needs to be fixed. And the plan that the Minister says reflects how “passionate” she is means it could take until 2032 to fix it.

    I don’t think Transport Minister Gladys Berejiklian gets it. 15 years is a very long time to wait for a train system that treats us with respect.

    That’s why I want to see her take up my disability challenge: try travelling like we do for just one day, navigating our trains in a wheelchair.

    My work as well as my social life requires me to travel a lot — all over Sydney metro, and, despite the huge costs, I often have to opt for taxis because it’s the only way I’ll know I can get to my destination on time and safely. I rely HEAVILY on public transport. The government says they want to encourage us to work, but they’re making it almost impossible.

    Staff need to be trained to deal with all different mobility aids and disabilities. Some of those who’ve been trying to help me have no clue how to get my chair down the ramp in the safest way possible.

    One time, I fell out of my chair alighting from the train. I had tried to ask the employee for assistance off the train due to the steepness of the ramp from the train to platform (I wasn’t game in attempting it myself). But because of his failure to acknowledge me after I had tried to grab his attention more than a few times (his face looking to the ground), adding to that language barrier, I attempted to alight on my own and fell and hit my face on the platform. I was then assisted back into my chair, asked if im ok.. and that was it. They expected me to roll away.  I had to ask for an ice pack and an ambulance to be called as it wasnt offered to me. I wasnt even asked if i needed assistance with pushing my chair from platform to the office, and pushed myself. I had just hit my head, i could’ve had a brain haemorrhage… anything couldve happened!

    Most of the time staff are friendly and mean well, but many of them don’t know how to approach a person with a disability. Better training for rail staff would be a good start.

    I’m one of the lucky ones – I can speak up for myself, but for many people, with a mix of abilities, negotiating with staff is almost impossible.

    Please add your signature to my petition and show your support, it will send the message straight to the minister that people expect her to be in touch with what our lives are like.

    Lets get Transport Minister Gladys Berejiklian travelling our trains using a wheelchair for just one day!

    Thanks for your support

     

    Pauline David

    Why this ad?
    Languages & Int Businessune.edu.au/Languages-Business – Online Languages & International Business degree with UNE, Feb 2014

    This is “very passionate”?!

    Inbox
    x
    Pauline David via Change.org mail@change.org
    4:50 PM (8 minutes ago)

    to me
    Change.org
    NEVILLE – There’s a new petition taking off on Change.org, and we think you might be interested in signing it:

    Transport Minister Gladys Berejiklian: Do my commute for a day – try to use Sydney trains in a wheelchair

    By Pauline David
    Fairfield NSW

    Getting around on our train network is hellish. I don’t think the government understand just how bad it is.

    That’s just another day for us disabled train commuters in Sydney. The services are terrible: whether it’s being put in the wrong section of the train, not being able to get a ramp, or being described as “a wheelchair” — not a person — there’s so much that needs to be fixed. And the plan that the Minister says reflects how “passionate” she is means it could take until 2032 to fix it.

    I don’t think Transport Minister Gladys Berejiklian gets it. 15 years is a very long time to wait for a train system that treats us with respect.

    That’s why I want to see her take up my disability challenge: try travelling like we do for just one day, navigating our trains in a wheelchair.

    My work as well as my social life requires me to travel a lot — all over Sydney metro, and, despite the huge costs, I often have to opt for taxis because it’s the only way I’ll know I can get to my destination on time and safely. I rely HEAVILY on public transport. The government says they want to encourage us to work, but they’re making it almost impossible.

    Staff need to be trained to deal with all different mobility aids and disabilities. Some of those who’ve been trying to help me have no clue how to get my chair down the ramp in the safest way possible.

    One time, I fell out of my chair alighting from the train. I had tried to ask the employee for assistance off the train due to the steepness of the ramp from the train to platform (I wasn’t game in attempting it myself). But because of his failure to acknowledge me after I had tried to grab his attention more than a few times (his face looking to the ground), adding to that language barrier, I attempted to alight on my own and fell and hit my face on the platform. I was then assisted back into my chair, asked if im ok.. and that was it. They expected me to roll away.  I had to ask for an ice pack and an ambulance to be called as it wasnt offered to me. I wasnt even asked if i needed assistance with pushing my chair from platform to the office, and pushed myself. I had just hit my head, i could’ve had a brain haemorrhage… anything couldve happened!

    Most of the time staff are friendly and mean well, but many of them don’t know how to approach a person with a disability. Better training for rail staff would be a good start.

    I’m one of the lucky ones – I can speak up for myself, but for many people, with a mix of abilities, negotiating with staff is almost impossible.

    Please add your signature to my petition and show your support, it will send the message straight to the minister that people expect her to be in touch with what our lives are like.

    Lets get Transport Minister Gladys Berejiklian travelling our trains using a wheelchair for just one day!

    Thanks for your support

     

    Pauline Davidv

  • And now, the sugar battery with unmatched energy density

    And now, the sugar battery with unmatched energy density

    By on 23 January 2014
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    Clean Technica

    A new “sugar battery” possessing an “unmatched” energy density has been created by a research team from Virginia Tech. The researchers think that their new battery — which, it bears repeating, runs on sugar — could potentially replace conventional forms of battery technology within only the next couple of years.

    The researchers argue that their sugar batteries’ relative affordability, ability to be refilled, and biodegradability, are significant advantages as compared to current battery technologies, and should give it the edge in competition. They are currently aiming for the technology to hit the market sometime within the next few years.

    Sugar battery

    “Sugar is a perfect energy storage compound in nature,” stated researcher YH Percival Zhang, an associate professor of biological systems engineering in the College of Agriculture and Life Sciences and the College of Engineering. “So it’s only logical that we try to harness this natural power in an environmentally friendly way to produce a battery.”

    While sugar batteries aren’t an entirely new concept, they have never been all that viable either — the new technology, though, is different, possessing an “energy density an order of magnitude higher than others,” according to Zhang. Continuing: “Sugar is a perfect energy storage compound in nature. So it’s only logical that we try to harness this natural power in an environmentally friendly way to produce a battery.”

    Virginia Tech provides more:

    This is one of Zhang’s many successes in the last year that utilize a series of enzymes mixed together in combinations not found in nature. In this newest development, Zhang and his colleagues constructed a non-natural synthetic enzymatic pathway that strip all charge potentials from the sugar to generate electricity in an enzymatic fuel cell. Then, low-cost biocatalyst enzymes are used as catalyst instead of costly platinum, which is typically used in conventional batteries.

    Like all fuel cells, the sugar battery combines fuel — in this case, maltodextrin, a polysaccharide made from partial hydrolysis of starch — with air to generate electricity and water as the main byproducts.

    “We are releasing all electron charges stored in the sugar solution slowly step-by-step by using an enzyme cascade,” Zhang explained. “Different from hydrogen fuel cells and direct methanol fuel cells, the fuel sugar solution is neither explosive nor flammable and has a higher energy storage density. The enzymes and fuels used to build the device are biodegradable. The battery is also refillable and sugar can be added to it much like filling a printer cartridge with ink.”
    Source: Clean Technica. Reproduced with permission.

     

  • Abbott urged to cut rooftop solar in national renewables revamp

    Abbott urged to cut rooftop solar in national renewables revamp

    By on 23 January 2014
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    The Australian rooftop solar PV industry may have to prepare for a future with no federal government incentives. There is growing speculation that the small scale renewable certificate may be cut in a revamp of the national renewable energy target.

    RenewEconomy understands that there is a renewed push by utilities and generators – particularly but not exclusively the state-owned ones – to close the small scale renewable energy scheme (SRES) and cease issuing renewable energy certificates for rooftop solar. Others suggest cutting the price cap on the certificates.

    The renewable energy target is already under threat from utilities and generators, state governments, and sympathizers within the Abbott ministry to either remove, or severely dilute, the 20 per cent target.

    Large scale developers are more or less resigned to having the fixed target of 41,000GWh for the large scale component moved beyond 2020 – possibly to 2022 or 2025. Because of falling demand, the government will claim that renewables will still account for 20 per cent of national demand in 2020.

    However, less expected is a new attack on the small scale solar subsidy. However, Australia already has more than 3,000MW of rooftop solar, is adding around 700-800MW a year, and this is having a big impact on the returns of generators such as Stanwell Corp, and the business models of network operators.

    Australian utilities are not alone, because rooftop solar is threatening their business models across the world – particularly in north America and Europe. Consider these remarkable comments made this week by Mark Ferron, one of the heads of the California Public Utilities Commission, who resigned this week.

    He noted that utilities, while claiming to like solar, “would still dearly like to strangle rooftop solar if they could.” Ferron said the CPUC – and by inference other regulators – would come under pressure to  “protect the interest of the utilities over those of consumers and potential self-generators, all in the name of addressing exaggerated concerns about grid stability, cost and fairness.”

    That is exactly what has been happening in Australia, where solar is couched in terms of the “death spiral” and its potential impact on non-solar users, rather than the benefits it can bring to consumers and the grid as a whole, as the heatwave underlined last week.

    The RET once offered 5 certificates for each estimated megawatt hour of electricity produced by rooftop solar. This – in combination of generous state-based feed-in-tariffs – created a flood of certificates and forced authorities to separate the small scale scheme to absorb the excess. The multiple was rapidly brought down to one as it became clear that the cost of rooftop solar PV had fallen.

    Ironically, that small scale solar market had finally reached balance just as the utilities make a new push to have it removed altogether. Their argument is that rooftop solar no longer needs the subsidy (the states have already largely removed feed in tariffs). The Queensland government, for instance, is constantly deflecting the blame on rising electricity bills on to the cost of solar subsidies.

    The reality is that the small scale scheme adds very little to electricity bills, less than one per cent, according to official data, and the Climate Change Authority, which reviewed the RET in 2012.

    However, the CCA raised the possibility that the certificate multiple could be reduced below one (say to 0.5/MWh) if the costs of the scheme rose beyond 1.5 per cent of consumer bills, and the payback of rooftop solar PV fell below 10 years.

    That assessment brought howls of protest from the solar industry, which pointed out that few businesses would invest in technology on such a payback, so why should households.

    The reality is, however, is that the payback for rooftop solar PV has now fallen to below 5 years, and to 7 years for commercial installations. The solar industry says that removing the certificates would add two years to that payback.

    That would make rooftop solar less obtainable and attractive for those on lower incomes. However, the government has the potential to offset this by targeting, as it has flagged, its “one million solar roofs” program to the lower income, rental and apartment markets. That program has already slashed its proposed subsidy from $1,000 to $500 a system, but it is not yet clear how it would be introduced.

    There have been arguments that it is superfluous if the RECs exist. Others such as ARENA are working on financing models for lower income and rental households, arguing that this would be a more effective system.

    In a recent submission to the Direct Action proposal, Origin Energy, the largest utility in Australia, stopped short of calling for the SRES to be scrapped, but called for the $40 cap on the price of small scale certificates to be reduced. It also questioned the one million rooftop program, noting that on its estimates, another million roofs would be connected to solar by 2020 anyway.

    “It is against this policy context that Origin believes that current support for solar PV systems should be moderated,” it writes in its Senate submission. It also wants a 10kW limit on SRECs, which it noted had been proposed by the CCA.  Any bigger system would still qualify for large scale renewable energy certificates, which are based on actual output rather than an upfront rated capacity.

    The Federal Government has yet to release the terms of reference for its RET review, despite having committed to do so by early December. Part of the problem is the complication of the CCA remaining in existence after Labor and the Greens voted down its repeal.

    However, removing the SRES could have implications for large scale developments, and it is not clear how the various targets would be resolved. No doubt the utilities will make clear their ideas when the RET review is finally open to submissions.