European forests near ‘carbon saturation point’

By Mark Kinver Environment reporter, BBC News

Disturbances, such as wildfires, contribute to the reduction of carbon sequestration in Europe’s forests

European forests are showing signs of reaching a saturation point as carbon sinks, a study has suggested.

Since 2005, the amount of atmospheric CO2 absorbed by the continent’s trees has been slowing, researchers reported.

Writing in Nature Climate Change, they said this was a result of a declining volume of trees, deforestation and the impact of natural disturbances.

Carbon sinks play a key role in the global carbon cycle and are promoted as a way to offset rising emissions.

Many of Europe’s forests are reaching an age where growth, and carbon uptake, slows down

Writing in their paper, the scientists said the continent’s forests had been recovering in recent times after centuries of stock decline and deforestation.

The growth had also provided a “persistent carbon sink”, which was projected to continue for decades.

However, the team’s study observed three warnings that the carbon sink provided by Europe’s tree stands was nearing a saturation point.

“First, the stem volume increment rate (of individual trees) is increasing and thus the sink is curbing after decades of increase,” they wrote.

“Second, land use is intensifying, thereby leading to deforestation and associated carbon losses.

“Third, natural disturbances (eg wildfires) are increasing and, as a consequence, so are the emissions of CO2.”

Co-author Gert-Jan Nabuurs from Wageningen University and Research Centre, Netherlands, said: “All of this together means that the increase in the size of the sink is stopping; it is even declining a little.

“We see this as the first signs of a saturating sink,” he told BBC News.

Sinking feeling

The carbon cycle is the process by which carbon – essential for life on the planet – is transferred between land (geosphere and terrestrial biosphere), sea (hydrosphere) and the atmosphere.

Carbon sinks refers to the capacity of key components in the cycle – such as the soil, oceans, rock and fossil fuels – to store carbon, preventing it from being recycled, eg between the land and the atmosphere.

Management techniques, such as coppicing, will help rejuvenate Europe’s forests, the study suggests

Since the Industrial Revolution, human activity has modified the cycle as a result of burning fossil fuels and land-use change.

Burning fossil fuels has resulted in vast amounts of carbon previously locked in the geosphere being released into the atmosphere.

Land-use change – such as urbanisation and deforestation – has reduced the size of the biosphere, which removes carbon from the atmosphere through photosynthesis.

Dr Nabuurs explained that saturation referred to the point where the natural carbon sinks were unable to keep pace and absorb the additional atmospheric carbon being released by human activities.

He said emissions had risen a lot over the past decade, primarily through the rise of emerging economies in countries such as China, India and Brazil.

The researcher’s conclusions appear to contradict the State of Europe’s Forests report in 2011 that showed forest cover in Europe had continued to increase. The report said trees covered almost half of Europe’s land area and absorbed about 10% of Europe’s annual greenhouse gas emissions.

But Dr Nabuurs said that the rate of afforestation was slowing, adding that a sizeable proportion of forests were mature stands of trees, which were mainly planted in the early part of the 20th Century or in the post-World War II period.

Forests absorb about 10% of the EU’s annual greenhouse gas emissions

“These forests have now reached 70-80 years old and are starting a phase in the life of a tree where the growth rate starts to come down,” he explained.

“So you have large areas of old forest and even if you add these relatively small areas of new forest, this does not compensate for the loss of growth rate in the old forests.”

However, mature woodlands have been recognised as a key habitat for supporting and conserving biodiversity.

Will this lead to policymakers making a choice between forests’ ecological value and their effectiveness at sequestering CO2?

“That is indeed a large challenge,” said Dr Nabuurs.

“Old forests in Europe are necessary and we certainly need those forests.

“I think policymakers at a national level and within the EU have to be clear that in certain regions, within valuable habitats, that the focus is on old forests and biodiversity.

“But in other regions, maybe it is time to concentrate more on continuous wood production again and rejuvenate forests again, so then you have growing forests and a continuous flow of wood products.

“This seems to be the optimal way to address both the need for wood products and maintaining a carbon sink in growing forests.”

‘Real problem’

The study’s findings could have implications for EU and member state’s climate mitigation efforts to reduce emissions.

“Most European nations, as part of their emissions reduction commitments, can also use forest carbon sinks,” Dr Nabuurs observed.

“Under the Kyoto Protocol, countries were voluntarily choosing to take that sink into account.

“But in the next commitment period, forest management will be an obligatory part of reaching the emissions reduction targets.

“For some countries, the sink is a very large part of their emissions reduction commitment so the saturation is a real problem, requiring them to take additional measures, for example in the electricity generation or transport sectors.”

As a sizeable proportion of Europe’s forest areas are owned by smallholders, the process of changing the age-profile of the continent’s tree cover could prove challenging with some owners resisting the idea of increasing wood production and tree harvesting.

Changes to the climate and the lack of management are reducing forests’ resilience to natural disturbances

One potential solution is a pan-European, legally binding agreement on forest management that would look to balance the ecological value of forests against the trees’ commercial and climate mitigation value.

Delegates from more than 40 nations have been working on such a framework since 2011.

However, talks stalled in June when negotiators were unable to reach agreement on a number of technicalities.

“This is a very important process where all the European states are working towards a legally binding agreement,” Dr Nabuurs commented.

“It is a very important framework in which the member states can devise their own national policies.

“It is obvious that within nations, forest policy is often quite weak. To strengthen this, this agreement is certainly necessary.”

Talks are set to resume in the autumn, with the aim of having a draft agreement in place by mid-November for EU forestry ministers to consider.

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North West Passage – ice levels alarming for transiting yachts

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‘Comparison between 2012 and 2013’    . The North West Passage, once thought of as an impossible dream for sailors, has been more and more ice free over the last few years, encouraging more and more yachts to the adventure. But 2013 is shaping up to be very different, possibly alarming for the boats who have already started. Here Douglas Pohl, Captain of the 55ft motor vessel Grey Goose, which transited successfully in 2013, tells the story: Over the last three weeks, Arctic ice area has declined by 662,000 km², which is 60% of normal and the slowest on record. Slow ice melt means more ice choke-points to navigate – many specific locations have been near impossible to even try with 90% ice concentrations. In 2013 there has been a 55%increase in Arctic ice since this date last year. Basically the summer melt season has been the slowest on record. There are more pronounced ice ‘choke-points’ for vessels attempting a NW Passage than in recorded history. Seven vessels have been waiting around Lancaster Sound unable to navigate south nor west while other vessels in the Western Arctic have been delayed in reaching Cambridge Bay from ice in Amundsen Gulf. Westerly winds have also pushed the Beaufort Sea ice up tight against Banks Island. The 2013 ice season is nothing like the 2012 ice season – a black & white difference. The bottom line is: If and when the ice melts ‘enough’ to allow open navigation by small yachts, will there be enough of the summer ice melt season remaining? …or put another way: When will Mother Nature close the door and the sea freeze over, preventing anyone exiting the Arctic in 2013. It appears that slower sailing boats are at risk of being trapped in the Arctic. Turning the western corner at Point Barrow has always been a risky proposition at the best of times, and Queen Maud and Bellot Strait are ‘choke-points’ for either direction of travel this season. Sailing boats known to be in the area this season intending a transit or a partial transit are the following: East to West: Acalephe, Canadian, 13.9m, aluminium cutter rigged Arctic Tern, British, 43ft Steel cutter rigged pilot house La Belle Epoque, German, 13m steel cutter rigged ketch Libellule, Check Republic, 47ft catermaran Tooluka, Netherlands, 14.15m steel sloop Traversay III, (USA?), sloop, thought to be fibreglass West to East: Anna, thought to be French, 10.5 steel ketch Balthazar, Canadian, 10.5m welded steel Dodo’s Delight, British, 33ft fibreglass sloop Empiricus, USA, 50ft yawl Tara, French, 36m aluminium expedition schooner motor-sailer There are other boats in the region, some have cancelled their journey, others have a different intent than a North West Passage crossing, some are motor boats. Here are a few of those also in the region: Arctic Joule, Canadian, cabin rowing boat Babushka, French, a hubrid catamaran with cuddy cabin, going for the North Pole Bernard Explorer, 46ft motor sailer, historical research expedition, Banks Island Fairmont’s Passion, USA, 17.5ft Norseboat – Inuvik to Resolute Glory of the Sea, Canadian, 50ft aluminium cutter rig, circling the eastern side Ikimaya, Canadian, tandem kayak, Tuktoyaktuk to Igloolik Lady Dana, Polish, 14.3m steel sloop, doing an Arctic circumnavigation Le Manguier, French, 21.1m steel hulled tug with stay-sail rig, circumnavigating Banks Is Noeme, French, 14.5m cold moulded epoxy, route unknown Polar Bound, British, 48ft custom aluminium expedition motor vessel, 6th transit Rowing Ice, French, 21ft cabin rowing boat, West to East, part transit Tranquillo, Netherlands, 56ft aluminium sloop, centreboard They could all experience conditions worse than they had been expecting, and, no doubt, the Canadian rescue services are gearing up for what could be a challenging year. You can follow Douglas’s blog at : http://northwestpassage2013.blogspot.com/ by Douglas Pohl/Sail-World Cruising http://www.sail-world.com/index.cfm?nid=113360 10:17 AM Mon 19 Aug 2013 Click here for printer friendly version Click here to send us feedback or comments about this story.   Click for further information on Adventure Sailing Related News Stories: 17 Aug 2013 North West Passage in 33ft Dodo’s Delight – gales already 16 Jul 2013 Polish crew to circumnavigate the North Pole in Lady Dana 09 Jul 2013 Sailor Jeanne Socrates, world’s oldest non-stop female circumnavigator 08 Jul 2013 Circumnavigating French sailor in 8ft boat rescued in Torres Strait 22 Jun 2013 Jeanne Socrates – near to victory in Victoria 16 Jun 2013 Book Review: ‘Suddenly Overboard’ by Tom Lochhaas 27 May 2013 Who am I? Solo sailor lists the breakages 21 May 2013 Incredible Jeanne crosses equator – one more leg to victory 13 May 2013 Francis Joyon about to challenge Trans Atlantic record from New York 10 May 2013 First solo circumnavigation by deaf sailor wins OCC award MORE STORIES …

Who are you really voting for in the Senate?

Posted 15 minutes ago

Photo: It is almost an impossible nightmare for all but the most prepared to show their preferences. (Brooke Bannister: ABC)

Senate preferences can easily leave you unwittingly voting for parties or policies you oppose, but any changes to this system rely on those who were elected by it, writes Anthony Pink.

We are now past the deadline for the lodgement of preference tickets for the Senate.

The week that leads up to that point is usually one of the most chaotic times behind the scenes for political parties and candidates as furious calls and demands are made, deals are made and broken, and political strategy is pitted against ideology in a battle to be above the competition.

It’s also where the realities of representative democracy come under the most scrutiny, for the least benefit to the voting public, and the outcomes this time were as disappointing as ever.

Take the Queensland preferences flows as an example. If you believe strongly in protecting Australian industry and breaking up monopolies, you may think a Senate vote for Katter’s Australia Party would be a good choice. But you would be wrong, as the free-trade-leaning ALP got second preferences.

Thinking of voting for one of the interest groups? Even that can be problematic; for example, the Animal Justice party, a group you would suspect would favour the Greens, are dealing preferences to One Nation, who don’t rate environmental issues highly.

Of the 36 groups on the ticket, only seven have any sort of regular coverage in the media. The remainder of those parties have shied heavily away from left, environmental and even libertarian interests, preferencing the LNP, KAP and ONP, and often using deliberately deceptive or irrelevant naming to direct votes against the original voter’s intentions.

One deal that got a lot of attention was the WikiLeaks deal in Western Australia in which long-term supporter of Julian Assange and campaigner on digital freedoms, Senator Scott Ludlum, was placed below the Nationals on their Senate ticket, dealing a further blow to Ludlam’s chances for re-election.

I suspect that WikiLeaks does not think any National party member will stand up for digital rights more than Ludlum, but that is not what the deal is about. WikiLeaks would probably have to poll better than the Greens in WA to have a chance of winning a seat; National preferences would then allow them to make it to later counts after the Nationals elect their members.

This is the divide between ideology and strategy that makes us all cringe when we hear the outcomes of preference deals.

But what if it wasn’t like that …

A statement of preferences is actually about you as a voter. It allows you to show who your top choices are; if your first option is not going to make it, your vote can be reallocated to someone knowing that while they aren’t your first choice, you would like that candidate more than the alternatives.

In the Senate, however, a vote above the line allows parties to have the choice on where your vote will go. The parties know that most people will vote above the line rather than number all 82 (in Queensland) boxes below the line, and take the risk that their vote will be made invalid if they make a serious numbering error.

Even armed with the information that is available through the AEC, a few good blog posts, articles and party materials (potentially biased as they are), it becomes almost an impossible nightmare for all but the most prepared to show their preferences on the largest possible Senate ballot with the smallest possible fonts.

There are many approaches to fixing this issue, like allowing for full or partial optional preferences below the line, or allowing for a full preference above the line, which would give the power to preference back to the voter.

We could change the way votes are counted; we could introduce a Condorcet system like the schulze method where each candidate is compared against every other candidate after a distribution of preferences, or introduce a borda count, where based on the preference given, the candidate gets a certain amount of ‘points’ (similar to the way championship points are given in motorsports).

These are certainly only ideas, and I am not advocating (or discounting) any in particular, but if we believe in a healthy debate about our democracy we should consider our options. Unfortunately the decision to change the system rests with the people who are elected by it, and in the case of parties that have on and off ruled for over a century, there is considerable risk to their fortunes and little to gain. It makes true reform a much more difficult task.

How the public achieves the sort of change that puts them at the negotiating table on issues of importance is a topic for another day, but there is something to take away from this.

Our preferences should not be the bargaining chips of any party, and I would be suspicious of anyone willing to use them in a way you didn’t intend. Knowledge and preparation is your best defence for this election, but we also have to get serious about what democracy means and ensure that preferences meet that goal.

You always have a right to choose: don’t throw it away.

Anthony Pink is an Information Technology expert, democracy policy contributor, and regular returning officer for internal elections within the Queensland Greens. Follow him on Twitter @anthonypinkgr. View his full profile here.

Topics: federal-elections

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