Equally, although Gillard expects Rudd to win the next election and knows when he does Rudd will be on borrowed time, even if Labor did lose Gillard believes a Tony Abbott government would be so inherently unstable that she could get her party back into power swiftly (no doubt by putting the blame for the defeat at the feet of a vanquished Rudd).
For all the increasing talk of leadership tensions at the top of the government following recent backdowns in policy positioning, accompanied by a slump in the polls, Rudd and Gillard continue to get on quite well. She is one of the few senior government figures Rudd has allowed himself to get close to, the other two being Anthony Albanese and Mark Arbib.
So the plan of action between now and polling day is for Labor to stay united and ensure Rudd wins a second term.
From that point, however, all bets will be off. Expect a less disciplined Labor government in its second term.
Let’s look at the numbers in the event of a leadership showdown. (I can assure you, as unlikely as a challenge is, senior Labor powerbrokers are doing the same thing.)
The Labor Left in Victoria is split. Most of them back Gillard; however, those close to Tanner probably wouldn’t, and they constitute a sizeable number of MPs. While Gillard is supported by some NSW left-wingers such as Laurie Ferguson, whose preselection she saved, one of the leaders of the Left in NSW, Albanese, would back Rudd strongly.
Across the rest of the nation the Left, by and large, would back Gillard. On the Right, the NSW faction is known for its motto, “It doesn’t matter who you support as long as they win.” For that reason, Arbib and his lieutenants would wait and see how any Gillard push was shaping up before declaring their hand.
The difficulty with assessing numbers in the NSW Right is that since 1996 it has had a tendency to split. What makes it likely that, by and large, they would go with the challenger is if the Right in Victoria and Queensland backed Gillard, which would happen.
Victoria’s right faction overwhelmingly supports a Shorten play on the leadership one day. Given that he has been shut out by Rudd, and his best chance of promotion would come with a change of leader and a hurrying up of contenders such as Gillard getting their chance, Victoria’s Right would favour a change of leadership. So would most of the Queensland Right.
Queensland may be Rudd’s home state, but there is little love for him there. (Don’t forget most of Queensland Labor backed Kim Beazley over Rudd when Bill Ludwig directed them to do so.)
The only complication would be if Swan threw his hat into the contest, splitting the right faction, thereby costing Gillard the important perception of a high first-round vote (knowing that incumbents invariably hold on to some MPs who always vote for the leader).
Always important to the NSW Right is its proximity to power. Arbib’s closeness to Rudd is considered valuable by the faction. But he is also Gillard’s junior minister and therefore is close to her as well.
Once upon a time the NSW Right wouldn’t have been prepared to back a leftie into the leadership, even if opposition caused it to fall foul of its motto. But when Arbib and his faction (albeit with splintering) supported Nathan Rees replacing Morris Iemma for the premiership in NSW, it was a sign Gillard wouldn’t even need to start formally caucusing with the Right to win its support in a challenge.
Someone such as Immigration Minister Chris Bowen would be uncomfortable with knifing Rudd but would ultimately fall into the factional line, if for no other reason than to keep his own ambitions fertile.
Someone such as Burke would know a change of leader moves him one step closer to becoming a candidate in the future, assuming he can repair some damage done to his union support in recent times.
A celebrity candidate such as Maxine McKew would stay loyal to the leader who enticed her into politics in the first place. Another, such as Peter Garrett, would be less inclined to back Rudd because of the way he ultimately used him as a scapegoat in the botched home roof insulation scheme.
The union movement is always important to Labor leadership challenges.
While Gillard has put some unions off side with aspects of her Fair Work Act, for the most part she is a more appealing figure in the top job than Rudd. She has always been careful to maintain good cross-factional links, knowing that her left-wing positioning would one day be a barrier to the leadership she would have to overcome.
So, in the event of a challenge, Rudd would rely on ad hoc support from non-aligned MPs, newcomers who have only seen him as the authority figure a PM always is and sections of the Left, mostly from Victoria, partly from NSW.
Despite being a left-winger, Gillard would win the support of most of the Right nationally as well as much of the Victorian Left. There would also be a quotient of women who would give her a solid personal following. The swinging numbers would be the NSW Right, just the way they like it, but they would vote for Gillard, knowing she was likely to win and because Arbib’s closeness to Gillard would transfer his influence to the new prime minister.
That Gillard in all probability has the numbers to roll Rudd even now explains why the Prime Minister is so weak when his personal satisfaction ratings for much of his first term in power should have made him strong.
Rudd doesn’t have a factional support base like Gillard or Swan. He relies on MPs and ministers sticking by him in the belief he is the best chance of ensuring Labor stays in power: marginal seat MPs don’t lose, ministers keep their portfolios and the patronage of government continues. And a first strike against a prime minister is very dangerous.
But when support wanes, a celebrity PM (think Kevin07) always looks cheap.
Gillard’s only concern needs to be avoiding contagion by an increasingly unpopular Rudd.
Watch closely because, for Gillard, this election campaign will be as much about positioning herself for a future promotion as it is about positioning Labor for a victory on polling day, even if she hopes the coup of the future turns out to be bloodless.