How many people will live here in 2031?
Port Macquarie is expected to grow by 20% while smaller towns like Dorrigo will struggle to maintain their population.
Coffs Harbour CBD (Fiona Poole – ABC Local)
By 2031 some parts of the Mid North Coast will see population growth ahead of the national average while smaller towns set back from the coast could face a population decline.
Demographer Mark McCrindle says that the region is forecast to grow by 19% with Port Macquarie leading with an expected 20% growth followed by 13% growth for Coffs Harbour.
The NSW Department of Planning and Infrastructure (DoPI) published statistics in September that predicted there would be a slight drop in the Macleay’s population.
However Mr McCrindle does not see any evidence for that.
“We can’t understand why the forecast is that Kempsey will decline its population by 2.3% as we approach 2031.”
“In fact it’s grown by 3.2% in the last 5 years and normally those trend lines continue on, so our forecast would be that it will have a population increase by 2031,” he told ABC Radio.
The expected population growth is based on three factors; natural increase (births minus deaths), interstate migration and the net overseas migration.
“Kempsey is doing very well form a natural increase perspective, and it’s also doing very well from intrastate migration, people moving from other areas.”
“That’s why the forecast has raised so many eyebrows,” Mr McCrindle said.
ABS and DoPI are forecasting that the Bellingen region will increase by 3.3%, Nambucca by 12%.
“As for the town of Dorrigo it’s in one of those tricky spots where being inland with an aging population and low birth rates it’s probably going to struggle to hit some growth,” Mr McCrindle said.
“When areas have slow growth they have a benefit in that house prices don’t go up and they become more affordable.”
“So the slow growth of Dorrigo might actually lead to more people making a tree change, but on current trend its probably going to have very slow growth if any growth at all.”
Coffs Harbour is expected to reach double digit growth, which puts it ahead of the state and national average.
“About 71,000 is the current population and it should get to more than 80,000 by 2031,” Mr McCrindle said.