BATHURST is expected to have one of the highest population gains in regional NSW, with figures showing a population of 52,500 by 2031.

According to figures released by the NSW Department of Planning and Infrastructure, Bathurst is expected to be in the top five population growth areas in regional NSW, outside of the Lower Hunter, Illawarra and the Central Coast.

Over the next 18 years Bathurst’s population is expected to grow by 31.5 per cent (12,600 people), while Orange will increase by 16 per cent (6,350) and Dubbo by 12.2 per cent (4,900).

Over the same time period Cabonne is predicted to grow by 41.3 per cent (5,450), Blayney by 21.1 per cent (1,500) and the Mid-Western Region (Mudgee) will increase by 13.5 per cent (3,100).

Western Research Institute CEO Danielle Ranshaw said the Department of Planning and Infrastructure had indicated that a healthy birth rate and net migration were key factors for population growth in the region.

She said while the population projections for Bathurst were in line with population growth between the 2006 and 2011 census, the projections for Orange were not.

“The projections for Orange appear less in line with the growth that has occurred there between 2006 and 2011,” she said.

“Cabonne, which surrounds Orange, is forecast to experience strong population growth, it may be absorbing some of Orange’s population growth.”

“If you look at Cabonne’s population growth between 2006 and 2011, it was very minimal and isn’t in line with the high population growth predicted.”

According to the figures released, significant age changes will also occur across the region, with the number of those aged 65 and over predicted to rise significantly.

A 92.6 per cent increase is predicted to occur in Bathurst, followed by 81.2 per cent increase in Cabonne, 74.8 per cent in Dubbo and a 68.5 per cent rise in Lithgow.

While Australia’s ageing population will benefit some regions, it is predicted to lead to population decline in others.

Cowra’s population is predicted to drop by 6.9 per cent (850 people), while Wellington will drop 4 per cent (350 people) and Forbes 2.8 per cent (250).

Ms Ranshaw said the Department of Planning and Infrastructure had outlined the ageing population and net migration out of the region as factors contributing to population decline.

“This is a difficult situation that smaller regional communities and their local councils face,” she said.

“The concentration of health services in some of the larger regional centres is likely to be a factor in population movement within the central west.”

Ms Ranshaw said there were plenty of opportunities in the central west but the region needed the infrastructure to support them.

The projections, which are based on data from the Australian Bureau of Statics, the Department of Immigration and Citizenship and NSW Health, are expected to be updated next year following the release of revised ABS data and other statistics.