Julia Gillard hit on trust in end-of-year poll slump
Simon Benson
The Daily Telegraph
December 11, 201212:00AM
JULIA Gillard has suffered an end-of-year hit in the polls with the fallout from the AWU scandal driving Labor’s primary vote back to disastrous levels as the government faces new challenges with slowing economic growth.
An exclusive Newspoll published in The Australian today, the final one for the year, shows a dramatic four-point drop in the party’s primary vote from 36 per cent to 32 per cent.
The Coalition’s vote increased three points to 46, bringing the two-party preferred vote to 54-46 and pointing to a crushing defeat for Labor if an election had been held at the weekend.
In a sign that trust continues to be an issue for the PM, Ms Gillard’s personal standing has also taken a hit. On the ranking of better PM, she dropped three points to 43.
But whatever damage Opposition Leader Tony Abbott may have inflicted with the Coalition’s relentless pursuit of the 20-year-old union scandal, his own figures failed to improve substantially, suggesting people still regarded him as too negative. Ms Gillard is still well ahead of Mr Abbott as preferred PM, with his score up only one point to 34 per cent.
The poll shock, coming as the government continues to prevaricate over its promise to return the budget to surplus by May, will occupy Labor strategists over summer, considering if an early election is now even an option.
The poll figures appear to have cruelled the momentum of the past three months which had shown the electoral fortunes of the government improving to a point of being within striking distance of the Coalition.
The last two polls, published before the full weight of the opposition’s attack on Ms Gillard’s character over the AWU scandal, had Labor on an almost equal footing with the Coalition on a two-party preferred basis.
The last Newspoll of the year was taken a week after the end of the final parliamentary sitting week, during which the PM was forced to again face difficult questions about her knowledge of the AWU slush fund she advised on for her former union boyfriend, as a lawyer almost 20 years ago.
She had also been forced to abandon her position on opposing a United Nations resolution to recognise Palestinian statehood, after her caucus refused to back her because of fears of a backlash from Middle Eastern communities in vital western Sydney seats. Australia abstained from the vote.
The Newspoll figures mirrored those of an Essential Media poll published yesterday – research that is normally regarded as more Labor-leaning. It showed Ms Gillard’s popularity had slipped in the past two weeks.
It also found that her personal approval rating had slumped four points to 37 per cent over the month, with 53 per cent of voters disapproving.
Mr Abbott’s approval remained steady at 33 per cent, while his disapproval rating improved two points to 56 per cent.