NSW 2015 – Legislative Council update by Ben Raue

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[New post] NSW 2015 – Legislative Council update


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NSW 2015 – Legislative Council update

by Ben Raue

The count in the Legislative Assembly is now largely complete. As of late Thursday evening, the Electoral Commission had “pushed the button” and finished the count in 41 out of 93 seats, including the key seats of Lismore (Nationals beat Greens), East Hills (Liberal beat Labor), Gosford and the Entrance (Labor beat Liberal), giving us a final figure of 54 Coalition, 34 Labor, 3 Greens and two independents.

In the Legislative Council, there has been substantial progress in counting since I last posted eight days ago.

I’ve produced a projection based on comparing the above-the-line votes counted in the first count and second count, and using this to project how the remaining below-the-line votes will flow.

Candidate Party Votes Quotas Projected votes Projected quotas
Courtney Houssos Labor 47,383 0.5699 167,269 0.8583
Robert Borsak Shooters 56,956 0.6851 164,310 0.8431
Fred Nile Christian Dem 54,144 0.6513 121,423 0.6230
Peter Jones No Land Tax 39,828 0.4791 80,485 0.4130
Mark Pearson Animal Justice 33,147 0.3987 75,323 0.3865
Hollie Hughes Liberal 50,453 0.6069 75,209 0.3859
Shayne Higson Voluntary Euthanasia 16,086 0.1935 39,637 0.2034
Justin Field Greens 25,472 0.3064 35,517 0.1822

The first four of these candidates will get elected. On this projection, No Land Tax is leading on primary votes in a very tight race with Animal Justice and the Liberal candidate, leaving open the possibility of preferences being decisive, and/or a court case challenging the result.

Below the fold, I’ll explain the progress of the count and how I came to this projection.

The Electoral Commission is planning to ‘push the button’ sometime between Wednesday and Saturday next week. Read more of this post

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