KEVIN Rudd is in serious trouble. And it’s not the electorate he should be worried about.

It’s a cabal of powerbrokers and his own MPs.

According to the mathematical principles used to remove Morris Iemma from office in NSW, the PM should already be a goner.

In 2008, when the NSW Labor powerbrokers Mark Arbib and Karl Bitar (these are the same blokes now shoring up Rudd’s leadership) first came after Iemma, his popularity was in the mid 30s – around where Rudd is now.

Labor’s primary vote was 35 per cent and Iemma had three years to run to an election.

Federal Labor’s primary vote is now an appallingly low 33 per cent. And Rudd has not three years, but three months.

Some suggest there is no precedent for a move on the PM. Nonsense. The only precedent is that it hasn’t happened in a first term.

The other difference is that Iemma was still popular among his backbench – the majority were personally loyal.

Rudd has the added problem that the majority of his caucus don’t like him.

The mood of the caucus last week was described as solemn.

That was a polite understatement. They are filthy. That many of them stand to lose their seats after just one term is causing many to start talking about alternatives – not after the election – before.

With a swing of just 1.4 per cent, Labor could lose 14 seats and Government – and that is before we consider the mining seats. Based on yesterday’s figures of a two-party preferred vote of 53/47 in favour of the Coalition, they could lose double that.

While it is just talk, talk has a way of being put into action.

Julia Gillard is being spoken of in the corridors for the possibility of a move to her before an election.

Arbib, the wiley senator and former NSW party boss was the major powerbroker who put Rudd into office. Bitar is the party’s national secretary.

Both are now Rudd’s closest political advisers. But Arbib, at least, has already started talking up Gillard. Not explicitly but enough to get tongues wagging.

Just as they have to take responsibility for the abysmal state in NSW, both must take responsibility for where Rudd, and Labor, are in the polls.

That is something neither will want to do. If there is risk they could wear responsibility for an election loss after one term, they would switch to Gillard in a heartbeat.

Rudd’s problem is that he is not only running out of time to turn things around, he may soon find he is running out of true friends.