John Howard used to often attribute his longevity not to the fact people liked what he stood for but the fact they knew what he stood for.
Rudd has managed to cultivate an image of standing for whatever is popular and then turning tail at the first whiff of grapeshot. The Newspoll is reflective of what the party polling has been finding internally.
The response to the Henry review has been universally derided as weak.
But this assessment misses the key point: that it is not timid to impose a massive tax and to pick a fight with the mining industry and the business sector more broadly.
It will be a tough fight against powerful interests that has not started well for the Government.
If if backs away, however, the damage will be severe.
Rudd is in a corner and all eyes are on how well he responds.