Labor’s 10-point lead on a two-party-preferred basis at the start of the election campaign has been reduced to a knife-edge 52 per cent to 48 per cent over the weekend, while the Coalition’s primary vote jumped four points to 42 per cent, compared with Labor’s 40 per cent, down from 42 per cent.
The two-party-preferred vote, based on preference flows at the 2007 election, is now the same as it was the weekend before Labor dumped Kevin Rudd as prime minister and put Ms Gillard into the job – only three weeks before she called the election.
Primary support for the Greens is unchanged on 12 per cent, while support for other candidates and minor parties dropped from 8 per cent to 6 per cent.
Satisfaction with the new Prime Minister has also dropped dramatically, from 48 per cent to 41 per cent; dissatisfaction with the job she is doing leapt from 29 per cent to 37 per cent last weekend.
Last Monday, Newspoll showed Labor ahead 55 per cent to 45 per cent on a two-party-preferred vote and four points ahead on a primary vote, 42 per cent to 38 per cent – initially vindicating the removal of Mr Rudd as leader to improve Labor’s polling.
According to a breakdown of Newspoll figures, much of the Labor boost came from female voters, with Labor’s primary vote of 42 per cent coming from male voter support of 39 per cent and female voter support of 44 per cent.
Last weekend, the Labor primary vote of 40 per cent came from an unchanged male vote and a female vote of 40 per cent, down four points in the first week of the election campaign.
Approval of the way the Opposition Leader is doing his job has improved markedly in the first week of the campaign, with satisfaction up four points to 40 per cent and dissatisfaction down from 51 per cent to 46 per cent.
Mr Abbott has also halved Ms Gillard’s 30-percentage-point lead as preferred prime minister at the start of the campaign after her support fell seven points to 50 per cent and his rose seven points to 34 per cent. At the last Newspoll survey when Mr Rudd was prime minister, he led Mr Abbott 46 per cent to 37 per cent.
But voters at the end of the first week of the election campaign believe overwhelmingly that Labor will win the election 65 per cent to 17 per cent for the Coalition. Even 47 per cent of Coalition supporters believe Labor will win, with only 34 per cent expecting a Liberal victory.
In terms of voter commitment, only 54 per cent said they would definitely vote the way suggested, with 43 per cent suggesting they may change their mind. The 54 per cent level of commitment to one party is about the same as it was at the beginning of the past two elections – 55 per cent in 2004 and 60 per cent in 2007.
Labor is behind on primary vote for the first time in the three Newspoll surveys since Ms Gillard became Prime Minister.
The two-party-preferred vote is the same as it was the weekend before Mr Rudd was removed, Mr Abbott is the closest to Ms Gillard as preferred prime minister since she took over. The Liberal leader’s satisfaction levels have improved while the Labor leader’s have fallen. The Newspoll is the first major survey taken since Ms Gillard announced a proposal for a 150-member citizens assembly to develop “consensus” on climate change policy while remaining committed to a carbon trading system by 2013.
Other national polls, taken before the climate change policy announcement on Friday morning, showed little change from Labor’s dominant 10-point lead on second preferences, but public reaction and online polling suggests the climate change decision has been unpopular.
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