Energy White Paper Submission
Comments on the inadequate coverage of the risk of future oil shortages in the draft Energy White Paper The coverage of the real risks of future global oil shortages in the Energy White Paper is very seriously inadequate and displays a common but unfortunate tendency in Government and business to overlook or discount crucial risk factors. “Predictable Surprises” is the title of an essay published in the Harvard Business Review and a subsequent book. “Why do leaders consistently ignore looming signs of crises even when they know the consequences could be devastating? Most events that catch us by surprise are both predictable and preventable, but we consistently miss (or ignore) the warning signs Another analogy is “The Optimism Bias”, where only the most positive and favourable outcomes are considered in planning. This is an unconscious bias. However, the associated “Strategic Misrepresentation” is a related deliberate deception towards an unrealistically optimistic outcome. A number of documents were included as appendices Predictable Surprises, Optimism Bias, Peak Oil Summary, Economic explanation of Peak Oil, Megaprojects approach , Nature-Peak Oil , Aleklett-IEA-review and BITRE 117
