-
RE: Study: Predicted 6ºC Rise by 2100 Should End “Business as Usual”
Hi Neville
“Business as usual” would end long before 4 degrees C, let alone 6 degrees C.
Many people expect “accurate” predictions of climate states, temperatures and sea level rise. Most scientists will not issue such predictions as the atmosphere/ocean/biosphere system is far too complex and transient reversals are more than likely (such as transient cooling of the North Atlantic due to Greenland ice melt water).
It is the extent of the feedbacks (from fires, methane, ice/water albedo effect) that will determine the temperatures at any particular point.
I find it bizarre that so many pin their forecasts on the end-21st century – as if there is not expectation/hope our grandchildren and their children will live beyond this point !
It is sufficient to say the trends are extremely worrying.
Andrew
13-11-12
From: NEVILLE GILLMORE [mailto:arthursleang@hotmail.com]
Sent: Tuesday, November 13, 2012 11:25 AM
To: Andrew Glikson
Cc: John James
Subject: Study: Predicted 6ºC Rise by 2100 Should End “Business as Usual”
Hi Andrew.
This material put out by Climate Code Red may well be correct.
However I am careful with items Dr. Spratt issues.
No one can accurately determine what global temps will be by 2050
or 2100 or what the sea-level rises will be. Their is a great deal of
speculation that may not be in accord with scientific reports.
This has caused many problems with coastal councils and planning
departments in respect to existing and future development.
A rise of 1 metre would cause severe problem, if as Dr Hansen reports
a 5 meter or higher rise would be a catastrophe.
For your comments please. I will not distribute material which may not
meet the existing scientific criteria, which could alter if there is an increase
in Icemelts causing a reappraisal of current reports.
Regards
Neville
Study: Predicted 6ºC Rise by 2100 Should End “Business as Usual”
http://www.commondreams.org/headline/2012/11/05-2
Common Dreams, November 5, 2012
‘This isn’t about shock tactics, it’s simple maths’ says global accounting firm.
AND
We’re Headed To 11°F Warming And Even 7°F Requires ‘Nearly Quadrupling The Current Rate Of Decarbonisation’
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/11/06/1144431/study-were-headed-to-11f-warming-and-even-7f-requires-nearly-quadrupling-the-current-rate-of-decarbonisation/
The Australian Government, Kyoto and the illusion of progress
http://theconversation.edu.au/the-australian-government-kyoto-and-the-illusion-of-progress-10631
David Hodgkinson, The Conversation, 10 November 2012
The Minister for Climate Change and Energy Efficiency, Greg Combet, announced on Friday that Australia is “ready” to join a second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).