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The party is benefitting from uncertainty on the left and denial on the right towards climate change. The former prime minister Kevin Rudd lost the faith of the Australian public after calling climate change ”the greatest moral challenge of our times” but then shelving legislation on a carbon tax. His successor, Julia Gillard, seeking her own mandate in Saturday’s election, has been criticised for offering little more than a citizens’ assembly on the issue.

Tony Abbott, the conservative opposition leader, is a climate change sceptic. He was thrust into the leadership of his Liberal party when former leader Malcolm Turnbull fell on his sword over the emissions trading scheme.

The leader of the Greens, Bob Brown, says his party’s central message is action on climate change.

“There’s enormous frustration and disappointment with both the bigger parties at their infighting and their failure to lay out a vision for Australia,” he said. “If you don’t [vote Green] you’re voting for a do-nothing lot of big party politicians who simply don’t have the gumption to take reasonable action on climate change.”

The other reason for increasing interest in the Greens is that it has positioned itself as the party of social action, calling for legalisation of same-sex marriage (both major parties oppose this) and for more compassionate treatment of asylum seekers. The Greens’ rise in popularity has come predominantly at the expense of Gillard’s Labor party.

“I think what we’re seeing is an element of Labor’s constituency who are impatient with the very prosaic and pragmatic approach that it’s taking and they’re decamping to a third party,” said Dr Nick Economou, a lecturer in politics at Melbourne’s Monash University.

In the inner city seat of Melbourne the Greens hope to translate such support into its first seat in the lower house. Labor’s finance minister, Lindsay Tanner, is standing down as an MP, which gives the Greens a better chance of victory. The Greens candidate for Melbourne, Adam Bandt, said the result would be close.

“A lot has been forgotten, like the need to take urgent action on climate change. If seats start changing hands on the basis of values like compassion, sustainability and equality it’s really going to put those values into the national debate in a way that they’re currently absent,” he said.

National opinion polls have repeatedly shown a majority of Australians want action on climate change.

Rudd shelved his legislation on a carbon tax in April after it was rejected three times in the senate, including by the Greens which said it did not go far enough.

Gillard said this week there won’t be a carbon tax under her leadership. Instead, she wants to invest in renewable energies and create a “citizens’ assembly” of 150 ordinary Australians to forge community consensus on climate change.

Abbott said there will never be a price on carbon if he wins office. Instead, he has promised a 15,000-strong “green army” of 18- to 25-year-olds who would earn £170 a week helping community and church groups with environmental projects.

If the Greens gain the balance of power in the senate on Saturday it means the party can block legislation. Whichever party wins overall, it will have to negotiate with them.

According to social researcher Hugh Mackay, this is a reflection of how society has changed: “What’s happened is that the world has caught up with the Greens. Suddenly their message is resonating with voters on a very large scale, whereas previously it was the eccentric fringe.”