Author: Neville

  • Natural variability, radiative forcing and climate response in the recent hiatus reconciled

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    Natural variability, radiative forcing and climate response in the recent hiatus reconciled

    Nature Geoscience
    (2014)
    doi:10.1038/ngeo2228
    Received
    06 March 2014
    Accepted
    17 July 2014
    Published online
    17 August 2014

    Global mean surface warming over the past 15 years or so has been less than in earlier decades and than simulated by most climate models1. Natural variability2, 3, 4, a reduced radiative forcing5, 6, 7, a smaller warming response to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations8, 9 and coverage bias in the observations10 have been identified as potential causes. However, the explanations of the so-called ‘warming hiatus’ remain fragmented and the implications for long-term temperature projections are unclear. Here we estimate the contribution of internal variability associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) using segments of unforced climate model control simulations that match the observed climate variability. We find that ENSO variability analogous to that between 1997 or 1998 and 2012 leads to a cooling trend of about −0.06 °C. In addition, updated solar and stratospheric aerosol forcings from observations explain a cooling trend of similar magnitude (−0.07 °C). Accounting for these adjusted trends we show that a climate model of reduced complexity with a transient climate response of about 1.8 °C is consistent with the temperature record of the past 15 years, as is the ensemble mean of the models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We conclude that there is little evidence for a systematic overestimation of the temperature response to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations in the CMIP5 ensemble.

    At a glance

    Figures

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    left

    1. Estimating the contribution of internal variability to recent temperature trends.
      Figure 1
    2. Updated radiative forcings from solar irradiance and stratospheric aerosols and their impact on the recent temperature trends.
      Figure 2
    3. Simulated global temperature adjusted with revised radiative forcings and the effect of internal variability.
      Figure 3

    right

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    References

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    2. Kosaka, Y. & Xie, S. P. Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling. Nature 501, 403–407 (2013).
    3. Meehl, G. A., Arblaster, J. M., Fasullo, J. T., Hu, A. X. & Trenberth, K. E. Model-based evidence of deep-ocean heat uptake during surface-temperature hiatus periods. Nature Clim. Change 1, 360–364 (2011).
    4. Meehl, G. A., Hu, A. X., Arblaster, J. M., Fasullo, J. & Trenberth, K. E. Externally forced and internally generated decadal climate variability associated with the interdecadal Pacific oscillation. J. Clim. 26, 7298–7310 (2013).
    5. Solomon, S. et al. The persistently variable ‘Background’ stratospheric aerosol layer and global climate change. Science 333, 866–870 (2011).
    6. Santer, B. D. et al. Volcanic contribution to decadal changes in tropospheric temperature. Nature Geosci. 7, 185–189 (2014).
    7. Fyfe, J. C., von Salzen, K., Cole, J. N. S., Gillett, N. P. & Vernier, J. P. Surface response to stratospheric aerosol changes in a coupled atmosphere-ocean model. Geophys. Res. Lett. 40, 584–588 (2013).
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    10. Cowtan, K. & Way, R. G. Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on recent temperature trends. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.2297 (2014)
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    Affiliations

    1. Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Universitätstrasse 16 8092 Zurich, Switzerland

      • Markus Huber &
      • Reto Knutti

    Contributions

    M.H. performed the climate model computations and analysis. Both authors designed the study and wrote the paper.

    Competing financial interests

    The authors declare no competing financial interests.

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  • Most complete Antarctic map for climate research made public Date:

    Featured Research

    from universities, journals, and other organizations

    Most complete Antarctic map for climate research made public

    Date:
    August 18, 2014
    Source:
    University of Waterloo
    Summary:
    A new satellite image of Antarctica has been made available to the public, and the imagery will help scientists all over the world gain new insight into the effects of climate change. Using Synthetic Aperture Radar with multiple polarization modes aboard the RADARSAT-2 satellite, the CSA collected more than 3,150 images of the continent in the autumn of 2008, comprising a single pole-to-coast map covering all of Antarctica. This is the first such map of the area since RADARSAT-1 created one in 1997.

    Mosaic of satellite images of Antarctica taken by RADARSAT-2.
    Credit: (RADARSAT-2 Data and Products © MacDonald, Dettwiler and Associates Ltd. (2008) – All Rights Reserved. RADARSAT is an official mark of the Canadian Space Agency.)

    The University of Waterloo has unveiled a new satellite image of Antarctica, and the imagery will help scientists all over the world gain new insight into the effects of climate change.

    Thanks to a partnership between the Canadian Space Agency (CSA), MacDonald, Dettwiler and Associates Ltd. (MDA), the prime contractor for the RADARSAT-2 program, and the Canadian Cryospheric Information Network (CCIN) at UWaterloo, the mosaic is free and fully accessible to the academic world and the public.

    Using Synthetic Aperture Radar with multiple polarization modes aboard the RADARSAT-2 satellite, the CSA collected more than 3,150 images of the continent in the autumn of 2008, comprising a single pole-to-coast map covering all of Antarctica. This is the first such map of the area since RADARSAT-1 created one in 1997.

    “The mosaic provides an update on the ever-changing ice cover in this area that will be of great interest to climatologists, geologists, biologists and oceanographers,” said Professor Ellsworth LeDrew, director of the CCIN and a professor in the Faculty of Environment at Waterloo. “When compared to the previous Antarctic RADARSAT-1 mosaic, we can map changes in the icescape with unprecedented accuracy and confidence. Earth’s polar regions are considered a bellwether for the effects of climate change.”

    Professor LeDrew is at the forefront of a cultural shift in the way researchers discover, share and preserve their research data. The CCIN links international researchers around the world with numerous government, university and private organizations to provide data and information management infrastructure for the Canadian cryospheric community. This mosaic map of the Antarctic is the latest addition to the CCIN’s Polar Data Catalogue. It is available on the Polar Data Catalogue website. (https://www.polardata.ca/pdcsearch/)

    “The Polar Data Catalogue’s mandate is to make such information freely available to scientists, students and the public to enhance our understanding and stewardship of the polar regions,” said Professor LeDrew. “We are proud to work with the Canadian Space Agency and MDA to bring this outstanding Canadian technology and science to the international community.”

    Next up for the partnership is a similar mosaic for Greenland, which will provide further crucial information about our shifting climate in the northern hemisphere. There are also plans to continue creating mosaics of Antarctica every few years to provide more data for researchers.


    Story Source:

    The above story is based on materials provided by University of Waterloo. Note: Materials may be edited for content and length.

  • Ocean warming could drive heavy rain bands toward poles

    Featured Research

    from universities, journals, and other organizations

    Ocean warming could drive heavy rain bands toward poles

    Date:
    August 18, 2014
    Source:
    Wiley
    Summary:
    In a world warmed by rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, precipitation patterns are going to change because of two factors: one, warmer air can hold more water; and two, changing atmospheric circulation patterns will shift where rain falls. According to previous model research, mid- to high-latitude precipitation is expected to increase by as much as 50 percent. Yet the reasons why models predict this are hard to tease out.

    Ocean warming could drive heavy rain bands toward the poles, researchers say.
    Credit: Image courtesy of Wiley

    In a world warmed by rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, precipitation patterns are going to change because of two factors: one, warmer air can hold more water; and two, changing atmospheric circulation patterns will shift where rain falls. According to previous model research, mid- to high-latitude precipitation is expected to increase by as much as 50%. Yet the reasons why models predict this are hard to tease out.

    Using a series of highly idealized model runs, Lu et al. found that ocean warming should cause atmospheric precipitation bands to shift toward the poles. The changes in atmospheric circulation brought on by a warming ocean should cause an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events at mid- and high-latitudes, and a reduction in the same near the equator. The changes would mean that, for high-latitude regions, now-rare storms would become much more common.

    The authors tested the effect of ocean warming on atmospheric circulation and precipitation using a highly idealized “aquaplanet” model, a representation of the Earth that was just sea and sky, but no land. They ran the model at a range of spatial resolutions and found that the changes in precipitation that stem from changing circulation patterns may possibly outweigh changes that derive from other factors.


    Story Source:

    The above story is based on materials provided by Wiley. Note: Materials may be edited for content and length.


    Journal Reference:

    1. Jian Lu, L. Ruby Leung, Qing Yang, Gang Chen, William D. Collins, Fuyu Li, Z. Jason Hou, Xuelei Feng. The robust dynamical contribution to precipitation extremes in idealized warming simulations across model resolutions. Geophysical Research Letters, 2014; 41 (8): 2971 DOI: 10.1002/2014GL059532

      Featured Research

      from universities, journals, and other organizations

      Ocean warming could drive heavy rain bands toward poles

      Date:
      August 18, 2014
      Source:
      Wiley
      Summary:
      In a world warmed by rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, precipitation patterns are going to change because of two factors: one, warmer air can hold more water; and two, changing atmospheric circulation patterns will shift where rain falls. According to previous model research, mid- to high-latitude precipitation is expected to increase by as much as 50 percent. Yet the reasons why models predict this are hard to tease out.

      Ocean warming could drive heavy rain bands toward the poles, researchers say.
      Credit: Image courtesy of Wiley

      In a world warmed by rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, precipitation patterns are going to change because of two factors: one, warmer air can hold more water; and two, changing atmospheric circulation patterns will shift where rain falls. According to previous model research, mid- to high-latitude precipitation is expected to increase by as much as 50%. Yet the reasons why models predict this are hard to tease out.

      Using a series of highly idealized model runs, Lu et al. found that ocean warming should cause atmospheric precipitation bands to shift toward the poles. The changes in atmospheric circulation brought on by a warming ocean should cause an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events at mid- and high-latitudes, and a reduction in the same near the equator. The changes would mean that, for high-latitude regions, now-rare storms would become much more common.

      The authors tested the effect of ocean warming on atmospheric circulation and precipitation using a highly idealized “aquaplanet” model, a representation of the Earth that was just sea and sky, but no land. They ran the model at a range of spatial resolutions and found that the changes in precipitation that stem from changing circulation patterns may possibly outweigh changes that derive from other factors.


      Story Source:

      The above story is based on materials provided by Wiley. Note: Materials may be edited for content and length.


      Journal Reference:

      1. Jian Lu, L. Ruby Leung, Qing Yang, Gang Chen, William D. Collins, Fuyu Li, Z. Jason Hou, Xuelei Feng. The robust dynamical contribution to precipitation extremes in idealized warming simulations across model resolutions. Geophysical Research Letters, 2014; 41 (8): 2971 DOI: 10.1002/2014GL059532
  • The forces that could stop the Islamic State (ISIS)

    The forces that could stop the Islamic State (ISIS)

    by · August 18, 2014

    ISIS on the march in Iraq

    ISIS on the march in Iraq

    With Barack Obama launching airstrikes against the forces of ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq & Syria) and Western leaders like Tony Abbott expressing their readiness to take their countries into military action also, Left Flank joins the discussion on the Left about the alternative to more imperialist militarism.

    The UK-based Counterfire website has run a good piece by John Rees outlining the history of the Kurdish Question since the 1916 Sykes-Picot division of the region, copper-fastened at Lausanne. I want to add a couple of further points and an argument questioning the necessary centrality and imperviousness to co-optation of the call for an independent, unified state of Kurdistan, which John advances in his piece.

    As I’ll return to, none of this questions the legitimacy of the demand for an independent Kurdistan, nor is it arguing in some bad “ultra-imperialist” way that all national questions are now of necessity subsumed by one or other imperialist interest.

    Raising the demand for a Kurdish independent state (particularly from within the imperialist powers) does not ally with imperialism. But is it wise? And is it a permanent sure-footing against sliding into that morass?

    A few points:

    1) The recent history of the Iraqi Kurdish political leaders is appalling. As John says, they have collaborated with the Turkish state against the Kurdish struggle in Turkey. In fact, between them the PUK and KDP have worked with the Shah, the Iranian state in the 1980s, Saddam and those before him, the Turkish state, Israel and the imperialist states against others and against one another.

    They have long degenerated to be little more than the extensions of the Barzani and Talabani clans. They unite in repressing young and progressive Kurdish and other forces in the KRG (Kurdistan Regional Government) region they control in northern Iraq. Their heroic days are long gone. The old mountain trained cadre is in Gucci suits not guerrilla fatigues. Their revolutionary vigour has shrunk in proportion to their expanding waistlines. Nothing good will come of those forces. They are long gone from our side, broadly defined.

    The PKK leadership is of course better. And the reality of oppression by NATO member Turkey has forced a certain path. But it too is not immune from the effects of the realpolitik it must practise. And the degeneration of elements of the party into cultism — under the pressure of horrific repression, we must never forget — should not be forgotten.

    It is not now fighting for an independent pan-Kurdish state. It is a matter for it and its base what it fights for, of course. But this is the situation.

    Until three years ago it made some progress in talks with Erdogan towards greater autonomy, national rights and so on. Then Erdogan abandoned yet another mark of distinction from the Kemalist establishment and renewed the madness of seeking a military solution to the Kurdish question.

    That said, there is no force among the Kurds raising the call for a unified state as central. Indeed, many left-wing Kurds are deeply critical of the politics that have led to this impasse and are emphasising the common struggle of peoples across the region as central, with the national question to be dealt with through unifying that struggle, not as a revolutionary “detonator” for a second stage of social revolution (the old “Kurdish-Marxist” position).

    2) Just as the position of Kurdish forces is malleable, so is that of Turkey and the now diminished states of Iraq and Syria.

    Of course, they are opposed to Kurdish developments that damage them. But the game now is accommodating the idea of “Kurdistan” in a way that directs it more against their opponents.

    So Erdogan’s Turkey is in favour of a stronger KRG against any Iraq that is close to Iran. And it has enormously increased trade with the KRG. It doesn’t want outright secession by Kurds in Turkey, of course. But no actual political force among the Kurds in Iraq or even Turkey is pressing for that. Raising a pure vision of an independent Kurdistan may appear to verbally cut through this, but no social force is pushing for it and there is enormous flexibility by imperialism over these questions. This is particularly so given the volatility of the whole region and when no material, fighting force is possessed of the slogan, it then floats free for others to play with.

    The US and its allies said they would never arm the KRG directly as it would threaten the breakup of Iraq and potentially redound against Turkey. Until they did arm the KRG.

    None of the imperialist powers gave a fig for national rights in Kosovo throughout the 1990s until… until they went to war in the name of Kosovan independence. Independence under NATO air power and tutelage was, many of us argued at the time, a sick joke. Some others believed in the magical, romantic power of the Kosovo question such that under any circumstances pursuing independence could be only progressive. It was not, notwithstanding the “right” to self-determination in principle. Upholding that right by socialists in Yugoslavia was hugely important. Believing you could exercise it in alliance with imperialism, as the KLA did at the very least, was to destroy the very notion of self-determination.

    I see nothing inherent in the Kurdish question that makes slogans based upon it immune to the shifting policies of imperialism.

    That’s all pretty speculative. Now to the concrete:

    3) Sykes-Picot is breaking down. The two principals that delineated its borders, Syria and Iraq, are fragmenting. Whatever happens, they will not be put back together as they were.

    A de facto threefold partition of Iraq is well advanced.

    Forces railing against the Sykes-Picot division are not only we socialists or progressives. They include IS and all sorts or sectarian, particularist reactionaries.

    It would be madness for socialists to defend the old lines on the map. Equally, we must recognise that the dominant political trends are towards the chauvinist, sectarian repartitioning of the region. In this, there is ample room for manoeuvre by the imperialist powers (even if it is a dangerous game). The Biden plan is one such playbook.

    The Levant and Middle East have long shared a characteristic with the Balkans — they may be unified or redrawn from above or from below. From above has always meant ethnic displacement as one power expands at the expense of others. The direct presence of imperialism (especially its outpost Israel) has subtly maintained the divisions that amplify this prospect.

    None of that means indifference to national oppression or to the right to self-determination. But it does mean recognising that they may be overcome/achieved successfully only through a radical struggle from below encompassing all peoples, firmly against imperialism (including Israel) and formulating a programme of national rights anchored in the internationalist defence of minorities in majority-other polities.

    4) There is a deep sentiment across the region for such a universalist rebuff to all sectarianism and particularism (including where national consciousness is indeed a product of national/ethnic oppression — Kurds, Assyrians, Turcomen, Copts, Berbers, etc).

    That sentiment informed the first wave of “constitutional” nationalism in the region; e.g. Egypt and Iran. But that political project was compromised by the narrow nationalism of nation-state building and by failure to consistently confront imperialism.

    The second wave of radical pan-Arabism offered more hope. But it, in both Nasserist and Ba’athist registers, failed to draw in non-Arabs and succumbed to the petty rivalry of Sykes-Picot states it had raged against: the failure of the Egypt-Syria Arab union, the war between the Ba’athist states of Syria and Iraq.

    Then the Islamists — Muslim Brotherhood and others — offered an answer transcending particularist identity and Sykes-Picot-truncated states. But they too have failed; most obviously with regard to non-Muslim minorities. Rabaa a year ago was a massacre. The removal of Morsi was a coup. But his government and supporters did ferociously attack the Copts, thus making the military coup all the easier as well as being utterly reactionary in itself. The Syrian disaster has heightened Islamist particularism — even sectarianism.

    The old vehicles for promoting the radical struggle from below are still major features on the stage. But none can carry us forward as they once promised.

    5) In these circumstances I believe we should champion a rejuvenated anti-imperialism which foregrounds the best positions of the early communist movement in the region. Of course it is criminal to oppose an independent Kurdish state if social forces fight for it against the wider apparatus of divide and rule.

    But should our message not rather be: there can be no freedom under the twin gangs of Talabani and Barzani; none under Erdogan or the Kemalists; none as Kurds while the Arabs are playthings of those who robbed us in 1923; none while Palestine is occupied; none while the kleptocrats of the Gulf are in power; none under Sisi; none from the takfiris; none for me but not my brother — out with the imperialist powers and all the elites, equal rights for all the peoples through common struggle of us all — from Rabaa, to Ramallah, to Irbil.

    For sure, there are many tactical and nuanced positions that then must be taken. Politics is not about declaiming socialism. An orientation left at that may become abstract. But in a situation where the breakdown of the old order threatens — as it always does — greater reaction as well as the prospect of great progress I believe we should champion our politics of revolutionary progress, while dealing with confused and partial struggles on that basis, not hoping that one of them or one national formulation and slogan will unlock the gate to the prison house and never fall into the hands of the jailer

    – See more at: http://left-flank.org/2014/08/18/forces-stop-islamic-state-isis/#sthash.bihsUe9x.dpuf

  • Daily update: Abbott’s new attack on renewables may spark another solar boom

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    AdUTS Secondary Teachingwww.uts.edu.au/future-students – Masters degree 1.5 years UTS Open Day 30 August

    Daily update: Abbott’s new attack on renewables may spark another solar boom

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    Renew Economy editor@reneweconomy.com.au via mail12.atl111.rsgsv.net

    3:18 PM (33 minutes ago)

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    Abbott attack on renewables may spark solar boom; Australia risks being last on renewables; SunPower to trial leasing in Melbourne; Climate change should be on G20 agenda: CEDA; Wind provides 25% of demand in W.A.; Germany meets 75% of domestic electricity demand with renewables; while Japan’s coal use barely moves despite nuclear shutdown; Evidence shows dredge spoil threat to Barrier Reef; Ocean acidity levels’ rapid rise; Bike sharing? Its complicated; and Empire State Building gets efficient.
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    RenewEconomy Daily News
    The Parkinson Report
    Tony Abbott’s renewed attacked on the renewable energy industry might be bad news for wind and large scale solar, but it could spark another ‘solar-coaster’ as households and small businesses rush to install rooftop PV systems before the remaining incentives are closed.
    Renewables sector says cutting or killing RET will kill off solar, cost investors billions, and leave Australia ‘dead dog last’ on clean energy.
    SunPower to test solar leasing model in Australia with launch of pilot program in Melbourne, offering 25-year locked in monthly rate at no up-front cost.
    CEDA report calls climate change a ‘G20 litmus test,’ and test of Australia’s role in tacking global economic problems requiring collective action.
    Wind energy accounts for 25% of W.A’s electricity demand – a far cry from days when 5% was said to break the grid.
    At 2pm on August 18, the combined output of renewables in Germany amounted to 41GW, or 75% of all domestic power requirements.
    Japan has kept fossil energy consumption roughly at pre-recession levels, despite shutting down most of its nuclear power stations since 2011.
    Counter to scientific evidence, proponents for the huge expansion of coal ports along the coast of QLD insist dredging won’t harm the Great Barrier Reef.
    New study from NOAA shows growing acidification of Alaska’s waters, particularly those off the southern coast, threatens the state’s whole economy.
    How many people have traded their car for a bike-share bike? That’s where the certainty ends about how bike-sharing programs benefit the climate.
    The energy retrofit at the Empire State Building has changed the trajectory of energy use in buildings.