Author: Neville

  • 2028: The End of the World As We Know It?

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    This blog contains articles and commentary on Climate Change / Global Warming. These changes will have an affect on the entire planet and all of us who reside therein. Life as we know it will change drastically. There is also the view that there is a high likelihood of climate change being a precursor of conflits triggered by resource shortges.

    Saturday, August 16, 2014

    2028: The End of the World As We Know It?

    “There is nothing radical in what we’re discussing,” journalist and climate change activist Bill McKibben said before a crowd of nearly 1,000 at the University of California Los Angeles last night. “The radicals work for the oil companies.”

    Bill McKibben

    Taken on its own, a statement like that would likely sound hyperbolic to most Americans—fodder for a sound bite on Fox News. Anyone who saw McKibben’s lecture in full, however, would know he was not exaggerating.

    McKibben was in Los Angeles as part of his nationwide “Do the Math” tour. Based on a recent article of his in Rolling Stone, (“The one with Justin Bieber on the cover,” McKibben joked) the event is essentially a lecture circuit based on a single premise: climate change is simple math—and the numbers do not look good. If immediate action isn’t taken by global leaders: “It’s game-over for the planet.”

    The math, McKibben explained, works like this. Global leaders recently came to an international agreement based on the scientific understanding that a global temperature raise of 2°C would have “catastrophic” consequences for the future of humanity. In order to raise global temperatures to this catastrophic threshold, the world would have to release 565 gigatons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Here’s the problem: Fossil fuel companies currently have 2,795 gigatons of carbon dioxide in their fuel reserves—and their business model depends on that fuel being sold and burned. At current rates of consumption, the world will have blown through its 565-gigaton threshold in 16 years.

    To prevent the end of the world as we know it, it will require no less than the death of the most profitable industry in the history of humankind.

    “As of tonight,” McKibben said, “we’re going after the fossil fuel industry.”

    Obviously no easy task. The oil industry commands annual profits of $137 billion and the political power to match. As McKibben noted, “Oil companies follow the laws because they get to write them.”

    However, there are some numbers on McKibben’s side. Recent polling data shows 74 percent of Americans now believe in climate change, and 68 percent view it as dangerous. The problem environmental activists are facing is in converting those favorable polling numbers into grassroots action.

    Enter “Do the Math.”

    Using McKibben’s popularity as an author, organizers are turning what would otherwise be a lecture circuit into a political machine. Before rolling into town, Do the Math smartly organizes with local environmental groups. Prior to McKibben’s lecture, these groups are allowed to take the stage and talk about local initiatives that need fighting. Contact information is gathered to keep the audience updated on those efforts. Instead of simply listening to McKibben, as they perhaps intended, the audience has suddenly become part of their local environmental movement.

    It’s a smart strategy, and an essential one—because the problem of climate change is almost exclusively a political in nature. Between renewable energy and more efficient engineering, the technology already exists to stave off catastrophic global warming. Though its application is lagging in the United States, it is being employed on a mass scale in other countries. In socially-stratified China, with its billion-plus population and tremendous wealth inequalities, 25 percent of the country still manages to use solar arrays to heat its water. Germany—Europe’s economic powerhouse—in less than a decade, has managed to get upwards of half of its energy from sustainable sources.

    The same can happen here in America—provided we have the will to make it happen. McKibben says the key to realizing that goal is to battle the lifeblood of the fossil fuel industry—its bottom line.

    To start, he’s calling for an immediate global divestment from fossil fuel companies. “We’re asking that people who believe in the problem of climate change to stop profiting from it. Just like with divestment movement in South Africa over apartheid, we need to eliminate the oil companies veneer of respectability.”

    In conjunction with the divestment regimen, continued protests against unsustainable energy projects will also be crucial. McKibben will be in Washington, D.C. on November 18 to lead a mass rally against climate change and the Keystone Pipeline. “We can no longer just assume that President Obama is going to do everything he promised during his campaign. We need to push him.”

    “I don’t know if we’re going to win. But I do know we’re going to fight.” More

  • Greenland Glaciers More Susceptible to Melt Than Thought

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    Stories from Climate Central’s Science Journalists and Content Partners

    Greenland Glaciers More Susceptible to Melt Than Thought

    • Published: May 18th, 2014
     1272  775  106  1

    Greenland’s glaciers are more vulnerable to melting by warm ocean waters than previously thought, a new study of the topography of the bedrock under the ice finds. This clearer picture of the underpinnings of the miles-thick ice sheet, along with other recent studies that suggest parts of Earth’s polar regions are not as stable as once thought, could mean that current projections of future sea level rise are too low.

    On April 8, 2011, NASA’s Operation IceBridge flew a mission to coastal areas in southwest Greenland. Mountains and an open-water fjord surround one of the mission’s targets, a small ice cap called Sukkertoppen Isflade.
    Credit: Michael Studinger/NASA

    The new Greenland findings, detailed online May 18 in the journal Nature Geoscience, come on the heels of an announcement by the same group of researchers at the University of California, Irvine, that some of the largest and fastest-moving glaciers of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet have entered a phase of “unstoppable” collapse. The mechanisms driving the melt are different for the two ice sheets, though.

    Unlike the Antarctic glaciers, which end in tongues of ice that float on the Southern Ocean seas, the glaciers of Greenland terminate with the land, butting up against the surrounding water. So instead of warm water melting the glaciers from below, as in Antarctica, the ocean waters melt the vertical fronts of Greenland’s glaciers. Scientists had thought that the melt of the Greenland glaciers would continue for a few decades, until the ice melted back to a point where the ground was higher than sea level and then would halt.

    RELATED New Greenland Ice Melt Fuels Sea Level Rise Concerns
    The Story Behind Record Ice Loss in Greenland
    Melt of Key Antarctic Glaciers ‘Unstoppable,’ Studies Find

    But the new study, which resulted in the most detailed topographic map of the periphery of Greenland to date, found that wasn’t the case: Valleys underlying many of the glaciers stay below sea level and extend much farther inland than previously suggested, so warm ocean currents that have migrated northward with the changing climate could eat away at the ice for much longer than current climate models suggest. “It will take much longer for these glaciers to lose contact with the ocean,” study author Mathieu Morlighem, of the University of California, Irvine, told Climate Central.

    Bed topography revealed by the mass conservation method (blue is below sea level.
    Click image to enlarge. Credit: Mathieu Morlighem/UC Irvine

    That extended contact means that the glaciers “will retreat faster and farther inland than anticipated” in current models, the study authors wrote, including those used in the latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. That report estimated that sea levels, which have already jumped 7.5 inches since the beginning of the 20th century, could rise by anywhere from 1 to 13 feet by 2100, an increase from the previous report released in 2007. The impacts of that extra water are already being felt. Low-lying islands are seeing their land area reduced, and flooding during storms like Hurricane Sandy and Typhoon Haiyan have been exacerbated. Further sea level rise could see some islands and coastal areas — home to an increasing share of the world’s population — disappear beneath the waves and would make storm-prone areas more dangerous to live in.

    The West Antarctic Ice Sheet alone contains enough ice to add another 10 to 13 feet of sea level rise, and the Greenland Ice Sheet contains enough to contribute another 20 feet.

    Just how fast the melting of these susceptible glaciers could proceed and how much extra sea level rise they would actually contribute isn’t known for sure, but it could be substantial, Morlighem, who plans on running revised projections of the melt, said.

    “What we know for sure is that it’s more vulnerable, it will continue for a longer period of time,” he said.

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    Follow the author on Twitter @AndreaTWeather or @ClimateCentral. We’re also on Facebook & other social networks.

  • Pope Francis in Daejeon See our latest on the pontiff’s visit World’s aging population set to affect economies Japan among ‘super-aged’ countries: Philippines among the most youthful

    Pope Francis in Daejeon See our latest on the pontiff’s visit World’s aging population set to affect economies Japan among ‘super-aged’ countries: Philippines among the most youthfulPicture: Shutterstock

    Picture: Shutterstock Shannon Roberts for MercatorNet International August 14, 2014 Facebook Print Mail Share The Moody’s Global Credit Research Team, which regularly prepares reports for investors and finance firms, warned investors this month in a special report that ‘the unprecedented pace of aging’ will slow economic growth over the next 20 years worldwide. Aging reduces economic growth because it reduces labour supply, and causes saving rates to decline which reduces business investment. It makes sense that over 65’s are spending their savings, rather than making further investments. By next year 68 of the 112 countries assessed by Moody’s report will be classified as “aging”, 34 “aged” and five, the rather amusingly categorised, “super-aged” – a category you achieve when more than 20% of society is aged 65 and above. Germany, Italy, and Japan are already “super-aged”, and are soon to be joined by Finland and Greece. Eleven more countries, including the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, France and Canada will get there by 2025, and there will be a total of 34 ‘super-aged’ economies by 2030. All countries, except a few in Africa, will face either a slower-growing or declining working-age population from 2015 onwards. The Philippines is one of only 23 economies whose over 65’s are expected to constitute below 7% of the population until 2030. The report showed that the percentage of elderly people in the overall Filipino population is estimated to be at 4.1% in 2015, 4.9% by 2020, 5.6% by 2025, and 6.3% by 2030. Guillermo M. Luz of the Philippines National Competitiveness Council considers that will sustain the Philippines’ attractiveness as a “very good investment site well beyond 2030″. “Having a young and educated work force, brought about by reforms in education, will make Filipinos very competitive compared to its peers in Southeast Asia,” Mr. Luz said yesterday. Something also to do perhaps with the value put on having children and family by the largely Catholic Filipino population. Other countries which may be set to enjoy an economic so-called ‘demographic dividend’ are the Gulf countries. In 2015 the elderly constituted only 0.5% of the total population in the United Arab Emirates, and is expected to reach 1.8% in 2030. In Saudi Arabia the elderly constituted 3% in 2015 and is expected to reach 7% in 2030. Sharp declines in fertility rates are a big part of the problem. These figures are already upon us, so it is a little late to turn them around. However, Moody’s suggests that policy reforms that improve labour participation, spur immigration in a country, and encourage financial inflows can all partially mitigate the impact of aging on economic growth. Innovation and technological progress that improve labour productivity can also dampen the effects of the rapid demographic changes on economic growth over the long term. Full Story: Moody’s warns investors: Aging to reduce economic growth worldwide Source: MercatorNet

    Read more at: http://www.ucanews.com/news/worlds-aging-population-set-to-affect-economies/71687

  • Scientists develop pioneering new spray-on solar cells

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    Scientists develop pioneering new spray-on solar cells

    Thursday 14 August 2014 19:49

    A team of scientists at the University of Sheffield are the first to fabricate perovskite solar cells using a spray-painting process – a discovery that could help cut the cost of solar electricity.

    Experts from the University’s Department of Physics and Astronomy and Department of Chemical and Biological Engineering have previously used the spray-painting method to produce solar cells using organic semiconductors – but using perovskite is a major step forward.

    Efficient organometal halide perovskite based photovoltaics were first demonstrated in 2012. They are now a very promising new material for solar cells as they combine high efficiency with low materials costs.

    The spray-painting process wastes very little of the perovskite material and can be scaled to high volume manufacturing – similar to applying paint to cars and graphic printing.

    Lead researcher Professor David Lidzey said: “There is a lot of excitement around perovskite based photovoltaics.

    “Remarkably, this class of material offers the potential to combine the high performance of mature solar cell technologies with the low embedded energy costs of production of organic photovoltaics.”

    While most solar cells are manufactured using energy intensive materials like silicon, perovskites, by comparison, requires much less energy to make. By spray-painting the perovskite layer in air the team hope the overall energy used to make a solar cell can be reduced further.

    Professor Lidzey said: “The best certified efficiencies from organic solar cells are around 10 per cent.

    “Perovskite cells now have efficiencies of up to 19 per cent. This is not so far behind that of silicon at 25 per cent – the material that dominates the world-wide solar market.”

    He added: “The perovskite devices we have created still use similar structures to organic cells. What we have done is replace the key light absorbing layer – the organic layer – with a spray-painted perovskite.

    “Using a perovskite absorber instead of an organic absorber gives a significant boost in terms of efficiency.”

    The Sheffield team found that by spray-painting the perovskite they could make prototype solar cells with efficiency of up to 11 per cent.

    Professor Lidzey said: “This study advances existing work where the perovskite layer has been deposited from solution using laboratory scale techniques. It’s a significant step towards efficient, low-cost solar cell devices made using high volume roll-to-roll processing methods.”

    Solar power is becoming an increasingly important component of the world-wide renewables energy market and continues to grow at a remarkable rate despite the difficult economic environment.

    Professor Lidzey said: “I believe that new thin-film photovoltaic technologies are going to have an important role to play in driving the uptake of solar-energy, and that perovskite based cells are emerging as likely thin-film candidates.”

  • Self-Cooling Solar Cells For Better Performance & Longevity

     

    Self-Cooling Solar Cells For Better Performance & Longevity

     

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    August 12th, 2014 by

    The Optical Society

    solarcell

    This drawing demonstrates how solar cells cool themselves by shepherding away unwanted thermal radiation. The pyramid structures made of silica glass provide maximal radiative cooling capability. Credit: L. Zhu, Stanford University.

    Scientists may have overcome one of the major hurdles in developing high-efficiency, long-lasting solar cells—keeping them cool, even in the blistering heat of the noonday Sun.

    By adding a specially patterned layer of silica glass to the surface of ordinary solar cells, a team of researchers led by Shanhui Fan, an electrical engineering professor at Stanford University in California has found a way to let solar cells cool themselves by shepherding away unwanted thermal radiation. The researchers describe their innovative design in the premiere issue of The Optical Society’s (OSA) new open-access journal Optica.

    Solar cells are among the most promising and widely used renewable energy technologies on the market today. Though readily available and easily manufactured, even the best designs convert only a fraction of the energy they receive from the Sun into usable electricity.

    Part of this loss is the unavoidable consequence of converting sunlight into electricity. A surprisingly vexing amount, however, is due to solar cells overheating.

    Under normal operating conditions, solar cells can easily reach temperatures of 130 degrees Fahrenheit (55 degrees Celsius) or more. These harsh conditions quickly sap efficiency and can markedly shorten the lifespan of a solar cell. Actively cooling solar cells, however—either by ventilation or coolants—would be prohibitively expensive and at odds with the need to optimize exposure to the Sun.

    The newly proposed design avoids these problems by taking a more elegant, passive approach to cooling. By embedding tiny pyramid- and cone-shaped structures on an incredibly thin layer of silica glass, the researchers found a way of redirecting unwanted heat—in the form of infrared radiation—from the surface of solar cells, through the atmosphere, and back into space.

    “Our new approach can lower the operating temperature of solar cells passively, improving energy conversion efficiency significantly and increasing the life expectancy of solar cells,” said Linxiao Zhu, a physicist at Stanford and lead author on the Optica paper. “These two benefits should enable the continued success and adoption of solar cell technology.”

    Solar cells work by directly converting the Sun’s rays into electrical energy. As photons of light pass into the semiconductor regions of the solar cells, they knock off electrons from the atoms, allowing electricity to flow freely, creating a current. The most successful and widely used designs, silicon semiconductors, however, convert less than 30 percent of the energy they receive from the Sun into electricity – even at peak efficiency.

    The solar energy that is not converted generates waste heat, which inexorably lessens a solar cell’s performance. For every one-degree Celsius (1.8 degree F) increase in temperature, the efficiency of a solar cell declines by about half a percent.

    “That decline is very significant,” said Aaswath Raman, a postdoctoral scholar at Stanford and co-author on the paper. “The solar cell industry invests significant amounts of capital to generate improvements in efficiency. Our method of carefully altering the layers that cover and enclose the solar cell can improve the efficiency of any underlying solar cell. This makes the design particularly relevant and important.”

    In addition, solar cells “age” more rapidly when their temperatures increase, with the rate of aging doubling for every increase of 18 degrees Fahrenheit.

    To passively cool the solar cells, allowing them to give off excess heat without spending energy doing so, requires exploiting the basic properties of light as well as a special infrared “window” through Earth’s atmosphere.

    Different wavelengths of light interact with solar cells in very different ways—with visible light being the most efficient at generating electricity while infrared is more efficient at carrying heat. Different wavelengths also bend and refract differently, depending on the type and shape of the material they pass through.

     

    The researchers harnessed these basic principles to allow visible light to pass through the added silica layer unimpeded while enhancing the amount of energy that is able to be carried away from the solar cells at thermal wavelengths.

    “Silica is transparent to visible light, but it is also possible to fine-tune how it bends and refracts light of very specific wavelengths,” said Fan, who is the corresponding author on the Optica paper. “A carefully designed layer of silica would not degrade the performance of the solar cell but it would enhance radiation at the predetermined thermal wavelengths to send the solar cell’s heat away more effectively.”

    To test their idea, the researchers compared two different silica covering designs: one a flat surface approximately 5 millimeters thick and the other a thinner layer covered with pyramids and micro-cones just a few microns (one-thousandth of a millimeter) thick in any dimension. The size of these features was essential.  By precisely controlling the width and height of the pyramids and micro-cones, they could be tuned to refract and redirect only the unwanted infrared wavelengths away from the solar cell and back out into space.

    “The goal was to lower the operating temperature of the solar cell while maintaining its solar absorption,” said Fan. “We were quite pleased to see that while the flat layer of silica provided some passive cooling, the patterned layer of silica considerably outperforms the 5 mm-thick uniform silica design, and has nearly identical performance as the ideal scheme.”

    Zhu and his colleagues are currently fabricating these devices and performing experimental tests on their design. Their next step is to demonstrate radiative cooling of solar cells in an outdoor environment. “We think that this work addresses an important technological problem in the operation and optimization of solar cells,” he concluded, “and thus has substantial commercialization potential.”

    Paper:  L. Zhu, A. Raman., K. Wang, M. Anoma, S. Fan, “Radiative Cooling of Solar Cells,” Optica 1, 32-38 (2014).

    Originaly published on The Optical Society website.

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  • Daily update: The $500-a-day service charge designed to kill solar

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    Daily update: The $500-a-day service charge designed to kill solar

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    Renew Economy editor@reneweconomy.com.au via mail136.wdc02.mcdlv.net

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    The $500-a-day service charge designed to kill solar; Undeveloped oil projects a $91bn gamble; ARENA funds 1MW solar expansion or remote solar/diesel plant; Greenpeace slams Big 3 “dirty” energy retailers; EnergyAustralia says carbon tax removal great for coal generators; Australian energy utilities attack on solar revealed; Italy imposes retroactive changes to feed-in tariff for solar PV; 3 reasons why non-hydro renewables surpass hydropower in US; and Perovskite solar cells beat new records in the lab.
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    RenewEconomy Daily News
    The Parkinson Report
    Businesses in Queensland now face a $500-a-day “service” charge – essentially to read the meter. The new tariff appears designed to prevent uptake of rooftop solar, and energy efficiency. But will likely accelerate the “death spiral” and cause more to leave the grid.
    Carbon Tracker Institute report finds top 20 biggest undeveloped oil exploration projects risk $91bn of investor capital on a high-risk, carbon-loaded bet.
    ARENA says it has agreed to contribute $4.6 million towards an $11.9 million expansion of one of the largest remote solar farms in Queensland.
    Greenpeace slams “dirty” Big 3 retailers for attacking renewables, and launches green electricity guide for consumers.
    EnergyAustralia says carbon price removal is great for future of coal-fired generators, as it battles falling demand, rooftop solar and energy efficiency.
    If customer service is a measure for utilities, the death spiral has not only begun, but we are surrounded by a growing pile of stinking corpses.
    Italian parliament and senate in Rome have voted in favor of retroactive changes to the feed-in tariff scheme for solar power.
    2014 is predicted to be first year that non-hydro renewable generation exceeds hydropower generation in US. This is a big change.
    Researchers are taking on new frontiers in the field of Perovskite solar cells.