Author: Neville

  • Unearthed MONBIOT

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    Monbiot.com

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    George Monbiot news@monbiot.com via google.com
    6:10 PM (58 minutes ago)

    to me

    Monbiot.com


    Unearthed

    Posted: 23 Dec 2013 09:03 AM PST

    A winter’s tale of guns, gold and greed.
    By George Monbiot, published in the Guardian 24th December 2013.

    Perhaps I should have been more careful. Last year I decided that every Christmas I would tell a winter’s tale or two(1). Through a long history of doing stupid things, I’ve accumulated a stock of ripping yarns. But I failed to explain myself. Some people interpreted the tale I told last Christmas as making a political point about Travellers I had no intention of suggesting; a point that is in fact the opposite of what I believe(2). So please read what follows as a story and no more: true to the best of my knowledge and memory but without a polemical purpose.

    I was told this tale by a gold prospector in the garimpos of Roraima: the illegal mines exacavated among the river gravels in the forests of northern Brazil. He and his friends swore it was true. Though parts of the story must have been filled in later, in the light of what I had seen I found it easy to believe.

    To say that the mines were lawless is not quite correct. They stood outside the laws of the state, but had established their own codes, which were informed by power and honour and greed and lust. Every week, thieves were taken into the forest to be shot. Duels were fought on the airstrips, in which men took ten paces, turned and fired: the miners circulated Wild West comics and acted out scenes that might once have been mythical, but there became horribly real.

    To illustrate the point, before we get to the tale itself: one evening João, a remarkable man from the north-east of Brazil, who, after leaving home at 14 then spending ten years crossing and recrossing the Amazon on foot, had found work as a minder for two prostitutes, took me and his charges to a bar at the end of the airstrip village in which I was staying. The bar and the strip of dirt were owned by Zé, a man who spent some of his vast earnings on causing trouble: roaming around with his band of pistoleiros, starting fights and roughing people up. Zé, in whose house I was staying (by his choice, not mine) was said to have killed five men, starting with his business partner: by this means he had acquired control of the airstrip, and the extortionate fees for landing and leaving.

    The bar was a flimsy shack in which a ghetto blaster was turned up so high that you could scarcely hear the music. Ragged men swayed and lurched and sprawled across the more sober prostitutes. On every table there was a bottle or two of white rum and a revolver. The men who had stayed in their seats drummed their fingers nervously on the tabletops, halfway between their drinks and their guns. The door was shoved open, and Zé and his thugs walked in.

    His was at all times an arresting presence: charming, mercurial and terrifying. A machete scar ran from one cheek, over his nose and across the other cheek. He wore a sawn-off denim jacket and two revolvers on his belt. He opened his arms and announced, in a voice loud enough to carry above the music, that he would buy drinks for everyone. Zé moved through the bar, slapping backs and shaking hands, flashing his gold teeth. João’s eyes darted around, watching people’s hands. Bottles of cachaça were passed down from the bar.

    Suddenly João shoved me so hard that I almost fell off my chair. He grabbed my arm, managing at the same time to seize the two prostitutes, and propelled us towards the door. As we hurtled out of the bar it erupted in gunfire. Amazingly, only one man was killed: he was dragged onto the airstrip with a hole the size of an apple in his chest. He was one of an estimated 1,700 people murdered, in a community of 40,000, in just six months.

    So here’s the story. Two men established a small stake in the mines, in a remote valley some distance from the nearest airstrip. They cut down the trees and began to excavate. They found the digging and hosing and sifting of the gravel exceedingly hard and, though they had discovered very little, they decided to hire two other men to do it for them. They agreed to split any findings equally with the workers. The two hired men dug for four months without success: with high pressure hoses they scoured great pits into which the trees collapsed; they turned the clear waters of the forest stream they excavated red with clay and tailings; they winnowed the gravel through meshed boxes; they dissolved the residues in mercury and burnt it off; but they produced almost nothing. Then they hit one of the richest deposits ever discovered in Roraima: in one day they extracted four kilos.

    If you find a lot of gold in the garimpos you keep quiet – very quiet. A single shout of triumph can amount to suicide. You gather it up, hide it in your bag and explain to anyone who asks on your way out that months of work have brought you nothing but disease and misery. But first it must be divided.

    The two men who owned the stake began to comprehend, for the first time, the implications of the deal they had done. “We risked our lives to establish this stake. We spent every cent we had – and plenty we didn’t – travelling here, buying the equipment and the diesel, hacking out a clearing in the forest, hiring these men. And now we have to split the gold equally with people who are no more than manual labourers, who would normally be paid a few dollars a day.” They told the two workers that they wanted a special meal that night, and sent them to the nearest airstrip to buy the ingredients.

    As the two workers walked they began to ruminate. “We’ve nearly killed ourselves in that pit. We’ve been up before dawn every day and have worked until dusk. We’ve had malaria, foot rot, screw worm, sunstroke, while those two bastards have done nothing but lie in their hammocks shouting instructions. Now we’re expected to give them an equal share of the gold that we and we alone found.” When they reached the store, they bought cachaça, rice, beans, a packet of seasoning and a box of rat poison. They mixed the poison into the seasoning and set off back to the camp. Before they reached it, they were ambushed by the two owners and shot. The owners then picked up the bags and went back to the camp to celebrate over the first hot dinner they had had in weeks.

    Some time later a party of men moving through the forest to look for new stakes walked into the camp. They found two skeletons over which vines were already beginning to creep. And four kilos of gold.

    www.monbiot. com

    References:

    1. http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/dec/26/my-inner-anarchist-lost-out-bourgeois

     

  • Why 2013 renewed my optimism

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    Why 2013 renewed my optimism

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    Tim Flannery – Climate Council via sendgrid.info
    2:20 PM (1 hour ago)

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    Inga,

    If you had told me earlier this year that more than 20,000 people would support us to relaunch the Climate Commission as a non-profit organisation, I don’t think I would have believed you!

    But just 3 months on from the biggest crowdfunding campaign in Australian history, here we are, wrapping up an incredibly successful first few months as the new Climate Council.

    We’ve been busy setting up the organisation, hiring a small, talented team, and consistently getting the facts about climate change out in the media and online.

    Here are just a few of the highlights so far:

    year highlights image

    Without you, our founding friends, none of this would have been possible. It’s proof that people power can make incredible things happen and it has greatly renewed my optimism for the future.

    On behalf of the whole Climate Council team, I want to thank you, wish you well for the festive season and I look forward to sharing more successes with you in 2014.

    Best wishes

    Tim Flannery, Chief Councillor.

    P.S If you haven’t had the chance yet, check out our latest landmark report on bushfires and climate change: http://www.climatecouncil.org.au/bushfirereport.

     
  • Greenland Ice Stores Liquid Water

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    News

    Greenland Ice Stores Liquid Water

    22.12.2013

    22.12.2013 21:57 Age: 8 min

    Liquid water found in the Greenland ice sheet could affect estimates of future sea level rise.

    Click to enlarge. This drill rig was used to extract firn cores from within the Greenland firn aquifer. One of the snowmobiles used in the 186 mile traverse of the ice sheet to reach the drill site. Clément Miège, University of Utah Ph.D. student and Terry Gacke, Ice Drilling Design and Operations. Courtesy: Evan Burgess

    Click to enlarge. Water from the Greenland perennial firm aquifer draining from a core extracted 40 feet below the surface of the ice sheet in April, prior to seasonal melt, with air temperatures 5 degrees F confirming water was retained at depth throughout the winter. Courtesy: Ludovic Brucker

    Researchers at the University of Utah have discovered a new aquifer in the Greenland Ice Sheet that holds liquid water all year long in the otherwise perpetually frozen winter landscape. The aquifer is extensive, covering 27,000 square miles.

     

    The reservoir is known as a “perennial firn aquifer” because water persists within the firn – layers of snow and ice that don’t melt for at least one season. Researchers believe it figures significantly in understanding the contribution of snowmelt and ice melt to rising sea levels.

     

    The study was published online Sunday, 22 December, in the journal Nature Geoscience.

     

    “Of the current sea level rise, the Greenland Ice Sheet is the largest contributor – and it is melting at record levels,” says Rick Forster, lead author and professor of geography at the University of Utah. “So understanding the aquifer’s capacity to store water from year to year is important because it fills a major gap in the overall equation of meltwater runoff and sea levels.”

     

    Forster’s team has been doing research in southeast Greenland since 2010 to measure snowfall accumulation and how it varies from year to year. The area they study covers 14 percent of southeast Greenland yet receives 32 percent of the entire ice sheet’s snowfall, but there has been little data gathered.

     

    In 2010, the team drilled core samples in three locations on the ice for analysis. Team members returned in 2011 to approximately the same area, but at lower elevation. Of the four core samples taken then, two came to the surface with liquid water pouring off the drill while the air temperatures were minus 4 degrees Fahrenheit. The water was found at about 33 feet below the surface at the first hole and at 82 feet in the second hole.

     

    “This discovery was a surprise,” Forster says. “Although water discharge from streams in winter had been previously reported, and snow temperature data implied small amounts of water, no one had yet reported observing water in the firn that had persisted through the winter.”

     

    The aquifer is extensive, covering 27,000 square miles — larger than the state of West Virginia. It is similar in form to a groundwater aquifer on land that can be used for drinking water. “Here instead of the water being stored in the air space between subsurface rock particles, the water is stored in the air space between the ice particles, like the juice in a snow cone,” Forster adds. “The surprising fact is the juice in this snow cone never freezes, even during the dark Greenland winter. Large amounts of snow fall on the surface late in the summer and quickly insulates the water from the subfreezing air temperatures above, allowing the water to persist all year long.”

     

    Why Studying Ice in Greenland is Important

    The Greenland Ice Sheet is vast, covering roughly the same area as the states of California, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado and Utah combined. The average thickness of the ice is 5,000 feet. In 2012, the ice sheet lost volume of 60 cubic miles – a record for melt and runoff.

     

    The consequences of losing the ice sheet could be catastrophic. If all the water retained in the ice sheet melted, it is estimated that the global sea level would rise about 21 feet, says Forster. Although no one is predicting a total meltoff all at once, keeping an eye on ice formation, runoff amounts and how the water is moving is critical to accurately predicting sea level changes.

     

    Until now, calculations of the ice sheet mass changes did not include a year-round storage mechanism for liquid water. Models predicted that water either flowed into rivers and lakes on the ice surface, into crevasses and subglacial streams that eventually run into the sea, or was refrozen within the ice sheet.

     

    Discovery of the perennial aquifer will help scientists predict the movement and temperature of water within the ice sheet with more precision.

     

    Forster says the reservoir’s exact role is unknown. “It might conserve meltwater flow and thus help slow down the effects of climate change. But it may also have the opposite effect, providing lubrication to moving glaciers and exacerbating ice velocity and calving increasing the mass of ice loss to the global ocean.”

     

    As for whether climate change caused the aquifer to form, Forster says that’s not clear, but simulations of the Greenland Ice Sheet going back to the early 1970s would suggest it has been around for some time.

     

    How the Study was Conducted

    The previously unknown storage mode was found in the southeast section of Greenland, where conditions combine to provide sufficient rain and snowmelt to fill the firn with water, as well as high levels of snow accumulation that insulate the water from freezing during the winter.

     

    The team used data collected by airborne and ground-penetrating radar to pinpoint the aquifer, and then took core samples on the ground.

     

    Airborne radar imagery was collected in the area by NASA Operation IceBridge, which is a program directed at collecting images of Earth’s polar ice in unprecedented detail to better understand the processes that connect polar regions with climate change. Ground-penetrating radar and a roving Global Positioning System navigation unit also were towed across the ice in the same area via snowmobile, collecting data every five seconds.

     

    Researchers found that the radar images from air and ground corresponded on both the depth of a bright horizon, indicating where there is a change in consistency of the ice, as well as the undulations of the horizon across distance of about 15 miles. This was confirmation that the airborne radar could map the aquifer just as well as the ground-based radar.

     

    Core samples were taken with a 4-inch-diameter drill. Two segments were extracted that were saturated with liquid water – one from a depth of about 33 feet and another the following day about a mile east and at a depth of more than 80 feet.

     

    Temperatures in the spring of 2011 were below average. Forster notes that, “because air temperatures were minus 4 degrees Fahrenheit during drilling and because surface melting in the area did not begin until June in 2011, there is no doubt that the water found in the firn had persisted through the winter.”

     

    This research is an international collaboration among researchers at the University of Utah, the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, Byrd Polar Research Center at the Ohio State University, Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University, the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, the Center for Remote Sensing of Ice Sheets at the University of Kansas, and the Desert Research Institute at the University of Nevada, Reno. Forster and the Utah team were supported by the National Science Foundation and NASA.

     

    Abstract

    Mass loss from the Greenland ice sheet contributes significantly to present sea level rise1. High meltwater runoff is responsible for half of Greenland’s mass loss2. Surface melt has been spreading and intensifying in Greenland, with the highest ever surface area melt and runoff recorded in 20123. However, how surface melt water reaches the ocean, and how fast it does so, is poorly understood. Firn—partially compacted snow from previous years—potentially has the capacity to store significant amounts of melt water in liquid or frozen form4, and thus delay its contribution to sea level. Here we present direct observations from ground and airborne radar, as well as ice cores, of liquid water within firn in the southern Greenland ice sheet. We find a substantial amount of water in this firn aquifer that persists throughout the winter, when snow accumulation and melt rates are high. This represents a previously unknown storage mode for water within the ice sheet. We estimate, using a regional climate model, aquifer area at about 70,000 km2 and the depth to the top of the water table as 5–50 m. The perennial firn aquifer could be important for estimates of ice sheet mass and energy budget.

     

    Citation

    “Extensive liquid meltwater storage in firn within the Greenland ice sheet” by

    Richard R. Forster, Jason E. Box, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Clément Miège, Evan W. Burgess, Jan H. van Angelen, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Lora S. Koenig, John Paden, Cameron Lewis, S. Prasad Gogineni, Carl Leuschen & Joseph R. McConnell published by Nature Geoscience. doi:10.1038/ngeo2043

    Read the abstract and get the full paper here.

     

    Source

  • New study helps wind energy sector tackle turbine noise problem

    In this issue
    year that was…
    Judge blasts renewable energy regulator over secret email wrangle

    More than 40% of Scotland’s energy demand is now met by renewables

    Major offshore wind industrial project gets the go-ahead

    New study helps wind energy sector tackle turbine noise problem

    Statkraft signs double PPA deal with RES for Meikle Carewe and Tallentire Wind Farms

    Renewable energy is young generation’s top investment choice

    Mushroom farm installs AD plant to generate power and heat

    Pioneering renewable energy plant seals £50m investment deal

    Innovative smart grid technology roll-out helps save cash and carbon

    Greggs installs solar PV panels on its bakery roofs

    Plans brought forward to install waste-to-energy plant at former colliery site

    £3m boost for energy storage innovation
    REA calls for stronger domestic biofuels targets

    Second huge offshore wind farm axed in space of two weeks

    New study helps wind energy sector tackle turbine noise problem

    The wind industry trade association RenewableUK has published detailed new scientific research on wind energy acoustics.

    The study was carried out to investigate the causes of, and solutions to, the occurrence of an acoustic characteristic known as “Other Amplitude Modulation” (OAM).

    The report explains the differences between “Normal Amplitude Modulation” (NAM), which is the common swishing sound made by turbine blades as they pass through the air, and OAM, which is an infrequent and uncommon sound which typically lasts only for a few minutes. As a result of the research, acoustics professionals and the wind industry have a clear understanding of the characteristics of OAM, as well as how to address it if it should occur.

    RenewableUK’s Deputy Chief Executive Maf Smith said: “It’s right that the wind industry should take the lead in investigating issues like this when they arise. As a result of the in-depth research we’ve commissioned, we’ve identified the causes of OAM, and, most importantly, the industry has identified a way to deal with it effectively.

    “On the limited and infrequent occasions when OAM occurs, we can address it by using software to adjust the way turbines operate, changing the angle of the blades.

    “Beyond that, the industry has worked with members of the UK’s leading acoustics institute to develop a planning condition for local authorities to use, which we’re publishing today alongside this work. This states that if OAM occurs, it’s up to the wind industry to resolve it.

    “We’re proud to have commissioned this ground-breaking research as it pushes the boundaries of our knowledge of wind turbine acoustics considerably further forward. It’s a tangible example of the wind industry acting in a responsible manner, demonstrating that we’re continuing to be good neighbours to the communities who host wind farms in the UK.”

    OAM is caused by sudden variations in the direction and speed of the wind. These variations mean that the wind hits different parts of the turbine blade at different speeds, causing it to stall momentarily. This stalling action produces a “whooshing” sound.

    OAM is not louder than NAM; both are relatively quiet, typically no louder than 35 to 40 decibels at a distance of about 1 kilometre, but it is deeper in pitch. OAM is comparable to the sound of traffic noise heard at around 1 km from a single carriage A-road.

    The wind industry has identified solutions to the issue – software adjustments which change the angle of the turbine blades at certain times when OAM could occur. The industry has also worked with members of the Institute of Acoustics on the development of a planning condition which can be used by local authorities. This means that when wind farm developers apply to build projects, they will be required to resolve any instances of OAM in accordance with the planning permission.

  • Antony Green’s Election Blog

    « Comparative Rules on Registering Political Parties | Main

    December 21, 2013

    The Remarkable Path to Victory of Wayne Dropulich

    The most astonishing result of the 2013 Australian election was the extra-ordinary election of Wayne Dropulich of the Australian Sports Party in the Western Australia Senate.

    With a first preference vote for his party of just 0.23%, it took an astonshing sequence of exclusions and preference flows to allow Mr Dropulich to increase his vote more than fifty fold to reach the quota of 14.3%. He was elected to fill the fifth seat ahead of the Greens who had polled 9.5% of the first preference vote.

    At this stage whether Mr Dropulich will take his Senate seat depends on proceedings before the Court of Disputed Returns. The Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) has petitioned the Court to void the result and order a new election for the WA Senate.

    As will be outlined below, Mr Dropulich was initially defeated on the distribution of preferences performed after the initially tally of all first preferences. After the AEC permitted a re-count, Mr Dropulich was elected on the distribution of preferences that followed the completion of the second count.

    However, 1,370 ballot papers could not be located for the re-count and these were not included in the second count and distribution of preferences. If the tally of the missing votes from the first count were added to the second count, the result would change again, with a critical one vote difference at a crucial point in the count resulting in Mr Dropulich failing to be elected.

    Having been duly declared elected, Mr Dropulich is entitled to be sworn in as a Senator on 1 July if the Court has not decided the matter before then, or if the Court chooses to let the second count excluding the missing votes stand. If the Court orders a fresh election, Mr Dropulich would no longer be entitled to his Senate seat. If the Court does not issue orders for a fresh election until after 1 July, Mr Dropulich would be entitled to hold his seat until a judgment is given.

    What was remarkable about Mr Dropulich’s victory was how a party that finished 21st out of the 27 parties on the ballot paper managed to get elected. Of the 20 parties that contributed ticket votes to his quota for election, 15 polled more votes than the Australian Sports Party.

    The path by which Mr Dropulich passed those 15 parties and gained their preferences was perilous. At three points in the count Mr Dropulich was the second lowest polling candidate remaining, and on each occasion he picked up preferences from the excluded candidate that allowed him remain in the count by avoiding last place.

    At another critical juncture in the count Mr Dropulich was the third lowest polling candidate ahead of the Australian Christians and the Shooters and Fishers Party. Depending on the order in which the Australian Christians and Shooters and Fishers Party finished, Mr Dropulich either became the lowest polling candidate and was excluded, or he leap frogged other parties and went on to win the fifth vacancy.

    The table below list the source of all votes that made up a part of Mr Dropulich’s total at the point where he was elected. The table has been derived from the detailed vote count data file released by the AEC. The first 20 entries in the table are total number of ticket votes that made up Mr Dropulich’s total on election. The final two entries are below the line first preferences for Mr Dropulich, and a total of all below the line votes received from multiple sources as preferences during the count. The total of votes from the Liberal Party is calculated by applying the transfer value following the election of the third Liberal Senator to the total of all Liberal ticket votes from the first count.

    The ‘% Vote’ column is the votes in the second column expressed as a percentage of the total formal vote. The ‘% of Quota’ is the votes as a percentage of the 191,219 votes held by Mr Dropulich at the point when he passed the quota. The ‘Preference number’ is the preference number for Dropulich on the group ticket vote of the party that sent the votes to Dropulich as preferences. The ‘Received at Count’ column is the stage of the count at which Mr Dropulich received each parcel of votes.

    2013 WA Senate Election – The Votes that Elected Wayne Dropulich
    Party Votes % Vote % of Quota Preference
    Number
    Received
    at Count
    Liberal Democrats 44,274 3.4 23.2 3 154
    Australian Christians 19,676 1.5 10.3 11 146
    Sex Party 17,830 1.4 9.3 11 150
    Liberal Party 16,495 1.3 8.6 15 162
    Help End Marijuana Prohibition 12,740 1.0 6.7 3 150
    Shooters and Fishers Party 12,586 1.0 6.6 3 142
    Animal Justice Party 9,004 0.7 4.7 13 150
    Family First Party 8,303 0.6 4.3 9 126
    Wikileaks Party 8,129 0.6 4.3 3 130
    Smokers Rights 8,081 0.6 4.2 5 154
    Australian Motoring Enthusiasts Party 7,334 0.6 3.8 5 118
    Australian Fishing and Lifestyle Party 5,511 0.4 2.9 17 146
    Australian Independents 3,687 0.3 1.9 13 142
    Rise Up Australia 3,473 0.3 1.8 7 98
    Australian Democrats 3,266 0.3 1.7 17 154
    Australian Sports Party 2,866 0.2 1.5 1 1
    Stop the Greens 2,074 0.2 1.1 5 154
    No Carbon Tax Climate Sceptics 1,389 0.1 0.7 5 146
    Australian Voice Party 1,082 0.1 0.6 5 94
    Stable Population Party 1,040 0.1 0.5 5 114
    Wayne Dropulich BTL first preferences 108 .. 0.1 1 1
    All other BTL votes received as preferences 2,271 0.2 1.2 .. ..
    Total votes on election 191,219 .. .. .. ..
    Total Formal Vote 1,310,278 .. .. .. ..

    On the first count the Australian Sports Party had 2,997 votes or 0.23%. These consisted of 2,866 ticket votes, 108 below the line first preferences for Wayne Dropulich, and 23 below the line votes for the second candidate Al Lackovic. Lackovic was excluded at count 12 and 13 of his 23 votes flowed as preferences to Dropulich.

    At the end of Count 89, only one candidate remained from each of 23 parties. During the distribution of below the line votes from the excluded candidates, Dropulich had gained 26 votes and had a total of 3,023 votes, 0.23% of the vote. At this stage he lay in 21st place of the 23 candidates on the ballot.

    At the end of Count 93, Mr Dropulich was ordered at 21st position out of 22 candidates with 3,027 votes to 2,598 for the last placed Adrian Byass of the No Carbon Tax Climate Sceptics. Byass was then excluded and his total included 1,082 ticket votes from the Australian Voice Party and these had next preference for Dropulich. This allowed Dropulich to escape last place to sit 18th of 21 remaining candidates.

    Last position now fell to Jane Foreman of Rise Up Australia. Her total of 3,950 votes included 3,266 ticket votes with next preference for Dropulich. This was the first of 15 bundles of votes from candidates with more votes than Dropulich. At the end of Foreman’s exclusion at Count 101, Dropulich now sat in 16th place of the 20 remaining candidate.

    By the end of Count 113 Dropulich had received no more ticket votes and had slipped back down the ranking to sit in 16th place of 17 remaining candidates. Dropulich trailed Richie Howlett of the Australian Motoring Enthusiasts Party by 193 votes, 7,843 to 7,649 from Dropulich. Count 114 saw salvation arrive for the second time at the last possible moment. The exclusion of the Australian Democrats released 1,040 ticket votes from the Stable Population Party with next preference for Dropulich. This put Dropulich ahead of the Australian Motorists Party for the first time and lifted Dropulich from the bottom of the pile and into second last place.

    Now salvation arrived for the third time. With the Australian Motoring Enthusiasts Party now in last place and excluded, 7,334 ticket votes from the Australian Motoring Enthusiasts Party flowed to Dropulich, preferences from a party that started the count with two and a half times as many votes as Dropulich. Dropulich was now lifted to tenth place of the sixteen remaining candidates.

    At Count 126 Dropulich received 8,303 Family First ticket votes and at count 130 received 8,129 ticket votes from the Wikileaks Party, two more parties that started out well ahead of Dropulich. These two bundles put Dropulich ahead of both the Australian Christians and the Shooters and Fishers Party for the first time. This was a critical result for what was to follow.

    At this point, the end of Count 141, Dropulich was in eighth place of the ten remaining candidates. The two parties behind him were the Australian Christians and the Shooters and Fishers Party. If the Shooters and Fishers were in last place and excluded, Dropulich received Shooters and Fishers preferences and stayed in eigth place and then gained Australian Christian preferences at the next count. If the Australian Christians were excluded first, their preferences went to the Shooters and Fishers Party putting them into eighth place, ahead of Dropulich, resulting in Dropulich being excluded.

    The count at this point was incredibly close, and the table below shows the order of the three lowest candidates and eventual outcome on the first and second counts, as well as the possible outcome if the first count of the 1,370 missing votes were included.

    2013 WA Senate Counts – Three Versions of the Crucial Exclusion
    First Count Second Count Including Missing Votes
    Dropulich (Sports Party) 32,829 (8th) 32,819 (8th) 32,819 (8th)
    Bow (Shooters and Fishers) 23,515 (9th) 23,514 (10th) 23,532 (9th)
    van Burgel (Christians) 23,501 (10th) 23,526 (9th) 23,531 (10th)
    Critical margin Shooters by 14 votes Christians by 12 votes Shooters by 1 vote
    Last two Senators elected Wang (Palmer United)
    Pratt (Labor)
    Dropulich (Sports Party)
    Ludlam (Green)
    Wang (Palmer United)
    Pratt (Labor)

    Having survived this critical count according to the accepted second count, at Count 142 Dropulich gains the ticket votes of the Australian Independents and Shooters and Fishers to pull ahead of the Australian Christians. At Count 146 he receives the Australian Christian, Fishing and Lifestyle Party and No Carbon Tax Climate Sceptics ticket votes, putting him into fourth place of the eight remaining candidates. At count 150 he receives more ticket votes from the Sex Party, Help End Marijuana Prohibition, staying in fourth place of seven remaining candidates.

    Count 154 saw the exclusion of the Liberal Democrats, a party that polled more than 12 times the number of votes recorded by Dropulich. He now received the ticket votes of the Liberal Democrats, Smokers Rights, Australian Democrats and Stop the Greens to move into first place of the six remaining candidates.

    Counts 158-161 exclude the National Party, putting the third and only remaining Liberal candidate over the quota. Count 162 then distributed the surplus vote of the Liberal candidate, delivering the final 16,495 ticket votes that elected Dropulich to the fifth vacancy.

    This result was entirely determined by ticket votes and the chance order of exclusion in the critical race for 9th between the Australian Christians and the Shooters and Fishers Party. Of Dropulich’s votes, 98.7% were ticket votes, entirely under the control of pre-arranged preference deals.

    The oddity of the system is revealed if you consider what happened to the votes of anyone who voted the Australian Motoring Enthusiasts Party. Depending on the contest between the Christians and Shooters, votes for the Motoring Enthusiasts Party elected either Dropulich or Wang of the Palmer United Party. Yet those Motoring Enthusiasts Party preference played no part in determine the result, they were merely directed one way or the other depending entirely on the contest between the Christians and Shooters.

    It is always a possibility that preferential voting can produce odd outcomes because of the order in which candidates are excluded. However, that possibility is made much more likely in the Senate because of ticket voting. Under non-ticket voting systems, this problem would only occur in the exclusion order of high polling candidates, not candidates at the bottom of the pile.

    In systems where voters fill in their own preferences, the order that low polling candidates are excluded rarely matters, as a party with low votes tends to have more random preferences.

    However, under ticket voting, a low polling candidate still has strong preference flows. In the case of WA, the contest between the Christians and Shooters produced preference flows that were tangential rather than random. The contest between two candidates with 1.75% of the vote each determined the last two seats in the contest, and both parties were already long excluded by the point in the count where the final two seats were decided.

    The WA Senate count is an example of what is wrong with the current Senate electoral system. Ticket voting, which means that more than 95% of preferences are pre-determined at each exclusion, makes the order of exclusion much more important than it should be. The count becomes unstable, and whether you want to fall back on the analogy of ‘butterfly wings’ or ‘black swans’, the almost random event of the order low polling candidates finish, can have an impact that is magnified through the count.

    A change to the system that required voters to enter their own preferences under an optional preferential system would give much more weight to candidates with a significant tally of first preference votes. Candidates that struggle to attract more than  a tiny fraction of the vote would struggle just as much to attract more than a fraction of the preferences.

     

    Posted by on December 21, 2013 at 08:11 PM in Electoral Systems,

  • Finally, some good news for the Reef

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    Finally, some good news for the Reef

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    GetUp!
    2:44 PM (35 minutes ago)

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    Finally - some good news for the Reef!

    NEVILLE,

    Finally, some good news for the Great Barrier Reef! The decision on whether to allow 3 million cubic metres of toxic dredge spoil to be dumped in Reef waters has been delayed.

    After an incredible campaigning effort from GetUp members and many others, the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority has refused to issue a permit for the dumping of 3 million cubic metres of toxic dredge spoil inside the Reef’s World Heritage Area. Instead, they have given themselves more time to assess the damage the project may cause. The delay is a sure sign that decision-makers are feeling the pressure from the community to do the right thing for our Reef.

    Now, we have until January 31st to convince the Reef Authority to stand up to the mining industry and save our Reef from industrialisation.

    Click here to thank the Reef Authority for delaying the decision, and urge them to reject the proposal for good:

    http://www.getup.org.au/safe-for-the-moment

    More than 280,000 GetUp members like you have worked together to make the campaign to protect the Great Barrier Reef incredible. Together, we’ve grown a massive petition, helped fund TV ads, billboards and strategic postering campaigns. We’ve filled out thousands of postcards and marched together through the streets of Brisbane at Rally for the Reef.

    Just this week, 2,710 GetUp members chipped in to fund a last minute full-page ad in the Courier Mail urging the authority to reject the dumping, alongside another 9,601 who emailed or called them directly. The effort has been extraordinary.

    This means our Reef is safe for the moment, and gives us another 40 days to deliver some of our best campaigning yet.

    The Reef Authority’s fundamental role is to protect the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park and World Heritage Area, and this delay is a great sign that they’re giving adequate time to assess the dangerous proposal .

    Click here to thank the Reef Authority, and let them know we’re watching:

    http://www.getup.org.au/safe-for-the-moment

    We’ll be in touch soon with the next phase of the campaign. In the meantime, congratulations on being a part of this important development, and get ready to take the fight to a new level in the new year!

    Thanks for everything –

    the GetUp team.

    PS – After Environment Minister Greg Hunt approved the dredging project at Abbot Point, GetUp members in his electorate of Flinders decided to personally deliver him a special Christmas gift. Here they are, led by Lauren, just after meeting Minister Hunt to discuss protecting the Reef, and delivering him what he wants most for Christmas – stockings full of coal:


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