2pm 11 April – My latest estimates are below. They are based on using the initial count totals on the NSWEC website as the likely ticket vote totals. I am then using the progressive check count of below the line totals to work out what percentage of first preference BTL votes each party will receive. There are currently 44,000 BTL votes counted and I am estimating based on there being around 80,000 BTL votes at the end of the count.

The current estimates are –

• Coalition slipping to 9.3960 quotas, electing nine but probably falling short on the tenth seat
• Labor 6.8621 quotas, electing seven members.
• Greens rising to 2.1847 quotas, electing two members with 0.1847 quotas distributed as preferences
• Shooters and Fishers on 0.8433 quotas and electing one member
• Christian Democrats on 0.6247 quotas and electing one member
• No Land Tax rising to 0.4121 quotas
• Animal Justice Party on 0.3868 quotas.

So the first 20 seats are clear, 9 Coalition, 7 Labor, 2 Greens and one each for the Shooters and Fishers Party and the Christian Democratic Party.

Nine seats for the Coalition is enough with its 11 continuing seats plus two Christian Democrats to allow the government to negotiate passage of legislation including electricity privatisation.

The race for the 21st seat remains close. On my estimates No Land Tax have 80,312 votes, the tenth Liberal candidate 77,172 and Animal Justice 75,375. No Land Tax is favoured to win the final seat.

The Greens have a surplus of around 35,000 votes, but flows between parties of more than 10% are unusual in the NSW Legislative Council system. Green preference may favour Animal Justice, but not by enough to put them ahead of No Land Tax.

The Coalition ticket vote on the progressive check count is currently about 0.6% above the initial count total which suggests the Coalition vote will continue to fall.

If there are more than 80,000 BTL votes then No Land Tax will be further advantaged.

 

10am 10 April – My estimates were based on about 80,000 below the line votes. I’ve been informed the number might be much higher, but I’ve questioned that information. If the figure is higher, and the current trend in BTL votes continues, then No Land Tax will win the final position relatively easily and the tenth Liberal candidate will finish behind both No Land Tax and Animal Justice.

In 2011 there were around 91,500 BTL votes, a rate of 2.2%. The current NSWEC figures indicate a BTL rate of 1.7% which would indicate the number of BTL votes should be down on 2011, not substantially up.

7pm 9 April – The initial counts are now complete and the Coalition total is 9.50 quotas. However, having re-assessed the NSWEC data, it now appears that the below the line vote is 1.7% rather than my initial estimate of 1.2%. If this higher figure is correct, then my current projection has the tenth Liberal candidate falling behind No Land Tax. My new estimates based on this higher rate of below the line voting is  –

• Coalition slipping to 9.4069 quotas, electing nine with the tenth candidate still in the race
• Labor 6.8655 quotas, electing seven members.
• Greens rising to 2.1810 quotas, electing two members with 0.1810 quotas distributed as preferences
• Shooters and Fishers on 0.8428 quotas and electing one member
• Christian Democrats on 0.6226 quotas and electing one member
• No Land Tax rising to 0.4109 quotas
• Animal Justice Party on 0.3861 quotas.

At some point in the count six candidates will remain to fill four vacancies. These candidates will be from the Coalition, Labor, Shooters and Fishers, Christian Democrats, No Land Tax and the Animal Justice Party.

It is unlikely that party preferences will have much impact, except for Green preferences which may flow towards Animal Justice.

With six candidates remaining, and assuming no change in order, Animal Justice would be excluded, and No Land Tax would probably win the last seat. If Animal Justice pass either No Land Tax or the tenth Liberal candidate, then the last seat is between Animal Justice and No Land Tax.

There is more counting to come, but the 21st seat is now looking much more in doubt than it was previously.

Amongst BTL votes, No Land Tax is polling 7.4% and the Coalition 19.4%. That’s why my current projection has No Land tax increasing its vote and the Coalition vote falling. If the BTL rate continues at 1.7% then the last seat is a real toss up with No Land Tax having improved its position. It would also make any Court of Disputed Returns case much more complex.

My prediction at the moment is that we will not know who wins the last seat until the button is pressed to distribute preferences.

Earlier comments below.

5pm 9 April – The Liberal lead continues to narrow as the final declaration votes are entered. My current projected quotas are  –

• Coalition slipping to 9.46 quotas, electing nine and probably still leading to elect a tenth member
• Labor 6.88 quotas, electing seven members.
• Greens rising to 2.16 quotas, electing two members with 0.16 quotas distributed as preferences
• Shooters and Fishers on 0.84 quotas and electing one member
• Christian Democrats on 0.62 quotas and electing one member
• No Land Tax rising to 0.40 quotas
• Animal Justice Party on 0.38 quotas.

Earlier comments below.

6:30pm 8 April – Using the initial count of ticket (above the line) votes that can be found at this link, and mixing these figures with preliminary tallies of below the line votes, the Legislative Council count will continue to see a decline in the Coalition vote.

The first below the line figures have the Coalition on 9.9 quotas, which is much higher than the current group totals. I do not have knowledge of which electorates are included, but it clearly overstates the Coalition’s vote.

On the current party totals at the above link, and factoring in the first below the line numbers, I am projecting the following final quotas

• Coalition slipping to 9.48 quotas, electing nine and probably a tenth member
• Labor 6.89 quotas, electing seven members.
• Greens rising to 2.15 quotas, electing two members with 0.15 quotas distributed as preferences
• Shooters and Fishers on 0.83 quotas and electing one member
• Christian Democrats on 0.62 quotas and electing one member
• No Land Tax rising to 0.40 quotas
• Animal Justice Party on 0.38 quotas.

Of the data released, the below the line vote rate is 1.1%, down on the 2.2% in 2011. Nearly a third of below the line votes in 2011 were for Independents Pauline Hanson and John Hatton, both of whom had much greater pulling power than any party at the 2015 election. The 2015 ballot paper was also longer than the 2011 ballot paper and had an additional 83 candidates.

The Liberal/National below the line rate is the lowest at 0.5%, Labor 0.8%, the Greens 2.7%, Christian Democrats 2.5%, Shooters and Fishers 1.3%, Animal Justice 2.1% and No Land Tax 4.7%.

Of all below the line votes, the Liberal/National Parties are polling only 19.4%, Labor 21.0%, the Greens 22.4% and No Land Tax 8.1%. That is why the Green and No Land Tax vote is rising with below the line votes and the Liberal/National vote is falling.

If these trends hold up, there may be enough Green preferences to get Animal Justice ahead of No Land Tax, but not enough to close the gap on the Liberal/National group.

The one caveat on this is that the totals are still short of many Absent votes, and these may yet cause a further decline in the Liberal/National total.

As I explained in this post this morning, the Animal Justice party needs to get the gap between it and the tenth Liberal candidate down under 700 votes, at the outside about 1,000 votes. If the gap is wider than this, it is unlikely that the Court of Disputed Returns would judge the iVote error as enough to affect the result of the election.

With the quota being about 190,000 votes, this means the quota gap at the end of the count would have to be under 0.005, or under 0.024% of the vote. At the moment the result does not look that close and the Coalition would be favoured to win the final seat.