RE: Study: Predicted 6ºC Rise by 2100 Should End “Business as Usual”
[Mark this message as unread] [Delete this message]
[Keep this message at the top of your inbox]
11:44 AM
Reply ▼
Andrew Glikson
To ‘NEVILLE GILLMORE’, ‘John James’
Hi Neville
“Business as usual” would end long before 4 degrees C, let alone 6 degrees C.
Many people expect “accurate” predictions of climate states, temperatures and sea level rise. Most scientists will not issue such predictions as the atmosphere/ocean/biosphere system is far too complex and transient reversals are more than likely (such as transient cooling of the North Atlantic due to Greenland ice melt water).
It is the extent of the feedbacks (from fires, methane, ice/water albedo effect) that will determine the temperatures at any particular point.
I find it bizarre that so many pin their forecasts on the end-21st century – as if there is not expectation/hope our grandchildren and their children will live beyond this point !
It is sufficient to say the trends are extremely worrying.
Andrew
13-11-12