Enormous areas of the most productive agricultural land would be underwater. One thinks immediately of Bangladesh and the North Sea farms in Holland and Anglesea. In addition frequent floods, droughts and storms caused by the huge land-form changes and increasingly disturbed atmosphere would cause severe losses every year. The reduction in food production would ensure that half the world’s population would be hungry or starving
The anticipated 7 meter sea rise from glacier collapse will be far worse. This will directly uproot 300 -1,000 million people, some 15% of the world’s population. The ricochet will be far-reaching and incalculable.
Where will all these homeless and starving people go? Who will look after them? How will their governments be forced to react?
Imagine eastern European countries struggling to feed their populations with a falling supply of food, water, and energy, eyeing Russia, whose population is already in decline, for its grain, minerals, and energy. Or Japan, with flooded coastal cities and contamination of its fresh water, eying Russia’s Sakhalin Island oil to power desalination plants and energy-intensive agricultural processes. Envision Pakistan, India, and China skirmishing at their borders over refugees, access to shared rivers, and the remaining arable land.
Prospects for major conflicts
As abrupt climate change lowers the world’s ability to feed its people, aggressive wars are likely to be fought over food, water, and energy. Deaths from war as well as starvation and disease will decrease population size, which will, over time, bring the population down to whatever level the earth can sustain.
Violence and disruption from the stresses created by abrupt change pose different conditions to any we are used to. This will create a sense of desperation, which is likely to lead to offensive aggression in order to reclaim balance. The massacres in Darfur are an early example of the coming climate wars.
Military confrontation may be triggered by a desperate need for natural resources such as energy, food and water, rather than by conflicts over ideology, religion, or national honour.
Such catastrophic environmental problems are likely to escalate global conflict.
Nations with resources may build fortresses around their countries, preserving some security for themselves. Less fortunate nations especially those with ancient enmities with their neighbours, may be left to struggle for food, clean water, or energy. With over 200 river basins occupied by more than one nation, we can expect conflict over access to water. For example, the Danube touches twelve nations, the Nile nine, and the Amazon seven.
In this world of warring states the use of nuclear arms is inevitable.